Migration, unemployment and trade

Migration, Unemployment and Trade focuses on the issues of migration, welfare and unemployment in a trade and development framework. Several chapters of the book analyze the implications of internal labor mobility in a model designed to highlight its implications for regional welfare, urban unemployment, rural-urban dichotomy and structural adjustment. An important innovation in this work is the disaggregation of the economy and the use of separate utility functions to highlight non-homogeneity of preferences. The book also deals with international mobility of factors in different frameworks. In particular it concentrates on the highly emotive issue of legal and illegal migration. Thus this work incorporates interesting and important features of labor economics and factor mobility into trade and distortion theory.

Tourism, taxes and immiserization: A trade theoretic analysis

Many countries promote tourism as a device for earning foreign exchange and promoting domestic welfare and growth. In all these countries the non-traded goods (internationally not traded) are consumed by both domestic residents and tourists. It is well known that the relative price of non-traded goods and services is determined in the local market – hence the tourist demand results in monopoly power in trade for the host country. We use a very simple two-country model to demonstrate the specific nature of the offer curve and the trade equilibrium and the difficulties of taxation.

Corporate governance failure and its impact on National Australia Bank's performance

The National Australia Bank (NAB) is the largest financial services institution listed on the Australian stock exchange and is within the 30 most profitable financial services organisation in the world. In January 2004, the bank disclosed to the public that it had identified losses relating to unauthorised trading in foreign currency options amounting to AUD360 million. This foreign exchange debacle was classified as operational risk, the risk of loss resulting from inadequate or failed processes, people, or systems and reiterated the importance of corporate governance for banks. Concurrent issues of National Australia Bank’s AUD4.1 billion loss on US HomeSide loans in 2001, the degree of strength of their risk management practices and lack of auditor independence, were raised by the US Securities and Exchange Commission in 2004, reinforcing the view that corporate governance had not been given the priority it deserved over a number of years. This paper will assess and critically analyse the impact of corporate governance failure by management and Board of Directors on NAB’s performance over the years 2001-2005.

Time-varying dependence in the intraday AUS/USD spot market

Using a high-frequency data set of the spot Australian dollar/US dollar this study examines the distribution of quotes and returns across the 24 hour trading "day". Employing statistical methods for measuring long-tenn dependence in time-series we find evidence of time-varying dependence and volatility that aligns with the opening and closing of markets. This variation is attributed to the effects of liquidity and the price-discovery actions of dealers.

Building agent-based hybrid intelligent systems

Many complex problems including financial investment planning, foreign exchange trading, knowledge discovery from large/multiple databases require hybrid intelligent systems that integrate many intelligent techniques including expert systems, fuzzy logic, neural networks, and genetic algorithms. However, hybrid intelligent systems are difficult to develop because they have a large number of parts or components that have many interactions. On the other hand, agents offer a new and often more appropriate route to the development of complex systems, especially in open and dynamic environments. In this paper, it is argued that agent technology is well snited for constructing hybrid intelligent systems (especially loosely coupled hybrid intelligent systems) through a successful case study. A great number of heterogeneous computing techniques/packages are easily integlated into the experimental system under a unifying agent framework, which implies that agent technology can greatly facilitate the construction of hybrid intelligent systems.

Accountability and board functionality: National Australia Bank's experience

The National Australia Bank’s (NAB) experience of corporate governance has been contrary to current standards of good corporate governance, accountability and risk management. Over the last few years NAB’s misadventures have brought it under intensive media scrutiny with the HomeSide losses and the investigation by the Securities and Exchange Commission in the USA for breaches of auditor independence. More recently the unauthorised trading by its foreign exchange dealers violated NABs risk management practices and the subsequent board crisis resulted in significant downgrading of the share price on the Australian Stock Exchange (ASX). This paper briefly reviews the international history of corporate accountability and its growth in Australia. The increasing shareholder and legislative pressure to improve sustainability, accountability and board functionality have driven these issues to the forefront of Governing Boards’ agendas worldwide. The board remains ultimately responsible for all actions of the company and this is highlighted by APRA’s recent release of the new governance standard APG510 for implementation by October 2006. The impact of NAB’s board dysfunction on its overall performance is compared with the other major banks in Australia. Cost efficiency ratios, share price and total shareholder return are used as measures of performance and profitability. It is clear, from NAB’s recent experience, as the worst performer of all the majors, with a 19.7% fall in net profit and a cost to income ratio of 57.4% in 2004, that the NAB board needs to improve its performance and accountability to meet a sustainable increase in profitability and higher return for investors.

Tourism, trade and domestic welfare

Tourism has been regarded as a major source of economic growth and a source of foreign exchange. It has also been viewed as an activity that imposes costs on the host country. Such costs include increased pollution, congestion and despoliation of fragile environments, and intra-generational inequity aggravation. One aspect that has been ignored is the general equilibrium effects of tourism on other sectors in the economy. This paper presents a model that captures the interdependence between tourism and the rest of the economy, in particular agriculture and manufacturing. An important result obtained is that the tourist boom may 'immiserize' the residents.

Building agent-based hybrid intelligent systems : a case study

Many complex problems (e.g., financial investment planning, foreign exchange trading, data mining from large/multiple databases) require hybrid intelligent systems that integrate many intelligent techniques (e.g., fuzzy logic, neural networks, and genetic algorithms). However, hybrid intelligent systems are difficult to develop because they have a large number of parts or components that have many interactions. On the other hand, agents offer a new and often more appropriate route to the development of complex systems, especially in open and dynamic environments. Thus, this paper discusses the development of an agent-based hybrid intelligent system for financial investment planning, in which a great number of heterogeneous computing techniques/packages are easily integrated into a unifying agent framework. This shows that agent technology can indeed facilitate the development of hybrid intelligent systems.

Leadership, culture and employee deceit : the case of the National Australia Bank

The National Australia Bank (NAB), one of Australia's largest banks, announced losses in 2004 of AUD$360 million due to unauthorised foreign currency trading activities by four employees who incurred and deceptively concealed the losses. The NAB had in place risk limits and supervision to prevent trading desks ever reaching positions of this magnitude. However, the risk management policies and procedures proved ineffective. The purpose of this paper is to analyse the deceit, via a content analysis of official investigative reports and other published documents, to determine the extent to which the Bank's culture and leadership may have influenced the rogue traders' behaviour. The findings suggest that cultural issues, and the role played by the Bank's leaders, were influential in creating a profit-driven culture that ultimately impacted the Bank's foreign exchange operating activities.

An intelligent forex monitoring system

The need for intelligent monitoring systems has become a necessity to keep track of the complex forex market. The vast currency market is a foreign concept to the average individual. However, once it is broken down into simple terms, the average individual can begin to understand the foreign exchange market and use it as a financial instrument for future investing. We attempt to compare the performance of a Takagi-Sugeno, type neuro-fuzzy system and a feedforward neural network trained using the scaled conjugate gradient algorithm to predict the average monthly forex rates. We considered the exchange values of Australian dollar with respect to US dollar, Singapore dollar, New Zealand dollar, Japanese yen and United Kingdom pounds. The connectionist models were trained using 70% of the data and remaining was used for testing and validation purposes. It is observed that the proposed connectionist models were able to predict the average forex rates one month ahead accurately. Experiment results also reveal that the neuro-fuzzy technique performed better than the neural network

Australian forex market anaylsis using connectionist models

The need for intelligent monitoring systems has become a necessity to keep track of the complex forex market. The forex market is difficult to understand by an average individual. However, once the market is broken down into simple terms, the average individual can begin to understand the foreign exchange market and use it as a financial instrument for future investing. This paper is an attempt to compare the performance of a Takagi-Sugeno type neuro-fuzzy system and a feed forward neural network trained using the scaled conjugate gradient algorithm to predict the average monthly forex rates. The exchange values of Australian dollar are considered with respect to US dollar, Singapore dollar, New Zealand dollar, Japanese yen and United Kingdom pound. The connectionist models were trained using 70% of the data and remaining was used for testing and validation purposes. It is observed that the proposed connectionist models were able to predict the average forex rates one month ahead accurately. Experiment results also reveal that neuro-fuzzy technique performed better than the neural network.

Multifractality and long-range dependence of asset returns: the scaling behavior of the Markov-switching multifractal model with lognormal volatility components

In this paper, we consider daily financial data from various sources (stock market indices, foreign exchange rates and bonds) and analyze their multiscaling properties by estimating the parameters of a Markov-switching multifractal (MSM) model with Lognormal volatility components. In order to see how well estimated models capture the temporal dependency of the empirical data, we estimate and compare (generalized) Hurst exponents for both empirical data and simulated MSM models. In general, the Lognormal MSM models generate "apparent" long memory in good agreement with empirical scaling provided that one uses sufficiently many volatility components. In comparison with a Binomial MSM specification [11], results are almost identical. This suggests that a parsimonious discrete specification is flexible enough and the gain from adopting the continuous Lognormal distribution is very limited.

Toward high growth enterprise

The disproportional impact of high growth firms on economies around the world has made them a natural focus of policy attention in New Zealand. That is what is behind New Zealand's ICT taskforce recommendations in 2003 to grow 100 ICT companies each doing over US$ 100 million sales per year by 2012 (a huge accomplishment for a small economy). Those companies could help New Zealand's foreign exchange earnings and jobs, not to mention improved health care, better resourced schools and tertiary institutions, debt reduction and increased savings, and improved standard of living (ICT Taskforce, 2003).

Towards a model of corporate social responsibility (CSR) in the ready made garments (RMG) industry in Bangladesh

As the primary earner of foreign exchange in Bangladesh, the readymade garments (RMG) industry has been under constant criticism for the absence of corporate social responsibility (CSR) practices in the industry. Based on previous research, and drawing on the model of CSR in food industry developed by Maloni and Brown (2006), this paper aims to develop a model of CSR for the RMG industry in Bangladesh and discusses its various aspects to assist our understanding of the CSR issues in this industry. As the absence of a functional practice of CSR in the industry is considered as a threat to its sustainability, this paper provides important implications for the sustainability of RMG industry in Bangladesh.

Fiji's tourism industry : a SWOT analysis

Within the last two decades Fiji’s tourism industry has grown dramatically, in the process overtaking the traditional export sector of sugar as the main foreign exchange earner and employment creator. Since Fiji depends enormously on tourism for its growth and development, this paper provides an analysis of the Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats on
the tourism industry. The paper aims to provide a clear picture of the tourism industry in Fiji and attempts to provide information, particularly to the policy makers, that will assist them in making policy decisions regarding the future growth and development of the industry - at a time when the industry's image has been tarnished as a consequence of Fiji's third coup in May 2000. The paper also provides some recommendations that need to be considered by policy makers and incorporated into any future development plans on the Fiji tourism industry.