Roll the dice, rational agent : should extra-curial punishment mitigate an offender's sentence?

It was rugby league State of Origin night 2008 and a group of adults had descended upon a house in Eagleby, Brisbane to have some drinks and to celebrate the game. At 11pm that evening, Shane Thomas Davidson entered the bedroom of the homeowner’s 10-year-old son, TC. Davidson approached the bed and began to massage the boy’s penis under his clothing, which caused TC to wake. Davidson stated, ‘Show me how big your willy is and I’ll show you how big mine is’. TC refused the request and after a small period of time, left the bedroom and told his father what had happened...

Environmental and economic evaluation of N fertilizer rates in a maize crop in Italy : a spatial and temporal analysis using crop models

Crop simulation models have the potential to assess the risk associated with the selection of a specific N fertilizer rate, by integrating the effects of soil-crop interactions on crop growth under different pedo-climatic and management conditions. The objective of this study was to simulate the environmental and economic impact (nitrate leaching and N2O emissions) of a spatially variable N fertilizer application in an irrigated maize field in Italy. The validated SALUS model was run with 5 nitrogen rates scenarios, 50, 100, 150, 200, and 250 kg N ha−1, with the latter being the N fertilization adopted by the farmer. The long-term (25 years) simulations were performed on two previously identified spatially and temporally stable zones, a high yielding and low yielding zone. The simulation results showed that N fertilizer rate can be reduced without affecting yield and net return. The marginal net return was on average higher for the high yield zone, with values ranging from 1550 to 2650 € ha−1 for the 200 N and 1485 to 2875 € ha−1 for the 250 N. N leaching varied between 16.4 and 19.3 kg N ha−1 for the 200 N and the 250 N in the high yield zone. In the low yield zone, the 250 N had a significantly higher N leaching. N2O emissions varied between 0.28 kg N2O ha−1 for the 50 kg N ha−1 rate to a maximum of 1.41 kg N2O ha−1 for the 250 kg N ha−1 rate.

Security constrained economic dispatch considering wind energy conversion systems

The available wind power is stochastic and requires appropriate tools in the OPF model for economic and reliable power system operation. This paper exhibit the OPF formulation with factors involved in the intermittency of wind power. Weibull distribution is adopted to find the stochastic wind speed and power distribution. The reserve requirement is evaluated based on the wind distribution and risk of under/over estimation of the wind power. In addition, the Wind Energy Conversion System (WECS) is represented by Doubly Fed Induction Generator (DFIG) based wind farms. The reactive power capability for DFIG based wind farm is also analyzed. The study is performed on IEEE-30 bus system with wind farm located at different buses and with different wind profiles. Also the reactive power capacity to be installed in the wind farm to maintain a satisfactory voltage profile under the various wind flow scenario is demonstrated.

Agronomic and economic evaluation of irrigation strategies on cotton lint yield in Australia

Cotton is one of the most important irrigated crops in subtropical Australia. In recent years, cotton production has been severely affected by the worst drought in recorded history, with the 2007–08 growing season recording the lowest average cotton yield in 30 years. The use of a crop simulation model to simulate the long-term temporal distribution of cotton yields under different levels of irrigation and the marginal value for each unit of water applied is important in determining the economic feasibility of current irrigation practices. The objectives of this study were to: (i) evaluate the CROPGRO-Cotton simulation model for studying crop growth under deficit irrigation scenarios across ten locations in New South Wales (NSW) and Queensland (Qld); (ii) evaluate agronomic and economic responses to water inputs across the ten locations; and (iii) determine the economically optimal irrigation level. The CROPGRO-Cotton simulation model was evaluated using 2 years of experimental data collected at Kingsthorpe, Qld. The model was further evaluated using data from nine locations between northern NSW and southern Qld. Long-term simulations were based on the prevalent furrowirrigation practice of refilling the soil profile when the plant -available soil water content is<50%. The model closely estimated lint yield for all locations evaluated. Our results showed that the amounts of water needed to maximise profit and maximise yield are different, which has economic and environmental implications. Irrigation needed to maximise profits varied with both agronomic and economic factors, which can be quite variable with season and location. Therefore, better tools and information that consider the agronomic and economic implications of irrigation decisions need to be developed and made available to growers.

Evaluation of the cost-effectiveness of strategies claiming to reduce the risk of surgical site infections following primary total hip arthroplasty

Background Total hip arthroplasty (THA) is a commonly performed procedure and numbers are increasing with ageing populations. One of the most serious complications in THA are surgical site infections (SSIs), caused by pathogens entering the wound during the procedure. SSIs are associated with a substantial burden for health services, increased mortality and reduced functional outcomes in patients. Numerous approaches to preventing these infections exist but there is no gold standard in practice and the cost-effectiveness of alternate strategies is largely unknown. Objectives The aim of this project was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of strategies claiming to reduce deep surgical site infections following total hip arthroplasty in Australia. The objectives were: 1. Identification of competing strategies or combinations of strategies that are clinically relevant to the control of SSI related to hip arthroplasty 2. Evidence synthesis and pooling of results to assess the volume and quality of evidence claiming to reduce the risk of SSI following total hip arthroplasty 3. Construction of an economic decision model incorporating cost and health outcomes for each of the identified strategies 4. Quantification of the effect of uncertainty in the model 5. Assessment of the value of perfect information among model parameters to inform future data collection Methods The literature relating to SSI in THA was reviewed, in particular to establish definitions of these concepts, understand mechanisms of aetiology and microbiology, risk factors, diagnosis and consequences as well as to give an overview of existing infection prevention measures. Published economic evaluations on this topic were also reviewed and limitations for Australian decision-makers identified. A Markov state-transition model was developed for the Australian context and subsequently validated by clinicians. The model was designed to capture key events related to deep SSI occurring within the first 12 months following primary THA. Relevant infection prevention measures were selected by reviewing clinical guideline recommendations combined with expert elicitation. Strategies selected for evaluation were the routine use of pre-operative antibiotic prophylaxis (AP) versus no use of antibiotic prophylaxis (No AP) or in combination with antibiotic-impregnated cement (AP & ABC) or laminar air operating rooms (AP & LOR). The best available evidence for clinical effect size and utility parameters was harvested from the medical literature using reproducible methods. Queensland hospital data were extracted to inform patients’ transitions between model health states and related costs captured in assigned treatment codes. Costs related to infection prevention were derived from reliable hospital records and expert opinion. Uncertainty of model input parameters was explored in probabilistic sensitivity analyses and scenario analyses and the value of perfect information was estimated. Results The cost-effectiveness analysis was performed from a health services perspective using a hypothetical cohort of 30,000 THA patients aged 65 years. The baseline rate of deep SSI was 0.96% within one year of a primary THA. The routine use of antibiotic prophylaxis (AP) was highly cost-effective and resulted in cost savings of over $1.6m whilst generating an extra 163 QALYs (without consideration of uncertainty). Deterministic and probabilistic analysis (considering uncertainty) identified antibiotic prophylaxis combined with antibiotic-impregnated cement (AP & ABC) to be the most cost-effective strategy. Using AP & ABC generated the highest net monetary benefit (NMB) and an incremental $3.1m NMB compared to only using antibiotic prophylaxis. There was a very low error probability that this strategy might not have the largest NMB (<5%). Not using antibiotic prophylaxis (No AP) or using both antibiotic prophylaxis combined with laminar air operating rooms (AP & LOR) resulted in worse health outcomes and higher costs. Sensitivity analyses showed that the model was sensitive to the initial cohort starting age and the additional costs of ABC but the best strategy did not change, even for extreme values. The cost-effectiveness improved for a higher proportion of cemented primary THAs and higher baseline rates of deep SSI. The value of perfect information indicated that no additional research is required to support the model conclusions. Conclusions Preventing deep SSI with antibiotic prophylaxis and antibiotic-impregnated cement has shown to improve health outcomes among hospitalised patients, save lives and enhance resource allocation. By implementing a more beneficial infection control strategy, scarce health care resources can be used more efficiently to the benefit of all members of society. The results of this project provide Australian policy makers with key information about how to efficiently manage risks of infection in THA.

The utility of serum CA-125 in predicting extra-uterine disease in apparent early stage endometrial cancer

Objectives: To evaluate the clinical value of pre-operative serum CA125 in predicting the presence of extra-uterine disease in patients with apparent early stage endometrial cancer. Methods: Between October 6, 2005 and June 17, 2010, 760 patients were enrolled in an international, multicentre, prospective randomized trial (LACE) comparing laparotomy with laparoscopy in the management of endometrial cancer apparently confined to the uterus. This study is based on data from 657 patients with endometrial adenocarcinoma who had a pre-operative serum CA125 value, and was undertaken to correlate pre-operative serum CA125 with final stage. Results: Using a pre-operative CA-125 cutpoint of 30U/ml was associated with the smallest misclassification error (14.5%) using a multiple cross-validation method. Median pre-operative serum CA-125 was 14U/ml, and using a cutpoint of 30U/ml, 14.9% of patients had elevated CA-125 levels. Of 98 patients with elevated CA-125 level, 36 (36.7%) had evidence of extra-uterine disease. Of the 116 patients (17.7%) with evidence of extra-uterine disease, 31.0% had elevated CA-125 level. In univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis, only pre-operative CA-125 level was found to be associated with extra-uterine spread of disease. Utilising a cutpoint of 30U/ml achieved a sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value of 31.0%, 88.5%, 36.7% and 85.7% respectively. Overall, 326/657 (49.6%) of patients had full surgical staging involving lymph node dissection. When analysis was limited to patients that had undergone full surgical staging, the outcomes remained essentially unchanged. Conclusions: Elevated CA-125 above 30U/ml in patients with apparent early stage disease is associated with a sensitivity of 31.0% and specificity of 88.5% in detecting extra-uterine disease. Pre-operative identification of this risk factor may assist to triage patients to tertiary centres and comprehensive surgical staging.

Maintenance optimisation of a multi-state series-parallel system considering economic dependence and state-dependent inspection intervals

This paper presents a maintenance optimisation method for a multi-state series-parallel system considering economic dependence and state-dependent inspection intervals. The objective function considered in the paper is the average revenue per unit time calculated based on the semi-regenerative theory and the universal generating function (UGF). A new algorithm using the stochastic ordering is also developed in this paper to reduce the search space of maintenance strategies and to enhance the efficiency of optimisation algorithms. A numerical simulation is presented in the study to evaluate the efficiency of the proposed maintenance strategy and optimisation algorithms. The simulation result reveals that maintenance strategies with opportunistic maintenance and state-dependent inspection intervals are more cost-effective when the influence of economic dependence and inspection cost is significant. The study further demonstrates that the optimisation algorithm proposed in this paper has higher computational efficiency than the commonly employed heuristic algorithms.

What are the implications of peri-urban agriculture on food security in Australian cities?

Background: Periurban agriculture refers to agricultural practice occurring in areas with mixed rural and urban features. It is responsible 25% of the total gross value of economic production in Australia, despite only comprising 3% of the land used for agriculture. As populations grows and cities expand, they are constantly absorbing surrounding fringe areas, thus creating a new fringe, further from the city causing the periurban region to constantly shift outwards. Periurban regions are fundamental in the provision of fresh food to city populations and residential (and industrial) expansion taking over agricultural land has been noted as a major worldwide concern. Another major concern around the increase in urbanisation and resultant decrease in periurban agriculture is its potential effect on food security. Food security is the availability or access to nutritionally-adequate, culturally-relevant and safe foods in culturally-appropriate ways. Thus food insecurity occurs when access to or availability of these foods is compromised. There is an important level of connectedness between food security and food production and a decrease in periurban agriculture may have adverse effects on food security. A decrease in local, seasonal produce may result in a decrease in the availability of products and an increase in cost, as food must travel greater distances, incurring extra costs present at the consumer level. Currently, few Australian studies exist examining the change in periurban agriculture over time. Such information may prove useful for future health policy and interventions as well as infrastructure planning. The aim of this study is to investigate changes in periurban agriculture among capital cities of Australia. Methods: We compared data pertaining to selected commodities from the Australian Bureau of Statistics 2000-01 and 2005 -2006 Agricultural Census. This survey is distributed online or via mail on a five-yearly basis to approximately 175,000 Agricultural business to ascertain information on a range of factors, such as types of crops, livestock and land preparation practices. For the purpose of this study we compared the land being used for total crops, and cereal , oil seed, legume, fruit and vegetable crops separately. Data was analysed using repeated measures anova in spss. Results: Overall, total area available for crops in urbanised areas of Australia increased slightly by 1.8%. However, Sydney, Melbourne, Adelaide and Perth experienced decreases in the area available for fruit crops by 11%, 5%,and 4% respectively. Furthermore, Brisbane and Perth experienced decreases in land available for vegetable crops by 28% and 14% respectively. Finally, Sydney, Adelaide and Perth experienced decreases in land available for cereal crops by 10 – 79%. Conclusions: These findings suggest that population increases and consequent urban sprawl may be resulting in a decrease in peri-urban agriculture, specifically for several core food groups including fruit, breads and grain based foods. In doing so, access to or availability of these foods may be limited, and the cost of these foods is likely to increase, which may compromise food insecurity for certain sub-groups of the population.

Why do policy decision-makers opt for command and control environmental regulation? An economic analysis with special reference to Sri Lanka

This chapter examines why policy decision-makers opt for command and control environmental regulation despite the availability of a plethora of market-based instruments which are more efficient and cost-effective. Interestingly, Sri Lanka has adopted a wholly command and control system, during both the pre and post liberalisation economic policies. This chapter first examines the merits and demerits of command and control and market-based approaches and then looks at Sri Lanka’s extensive environmental regulatory framework. The chapter then examines the likely reasons as to why the country has gone down the path of inflexible regulatory measures and has become entrenched in them. The various hypotheses are discussed and empirical evidence is provided. The chapter also discusses the consequences of an environmentally slack economy and policy implications stemming from adopting a wholly regulatory approach. The chapter concludes with a discussion of the main results.

Economic growth and inequality patterns in the presence of costly technology adoption and uncertainty

We develop a stochastic endogenous growth model to explain the diversity in growth and inequality patterns and the non-convergence of incomes in transitional economies where an underdeveloped financial sector imposes an implicit, fixed cost on the diversification of idiosyncratic risk. In the model endogenous growth occurs through physical and human capital deepening, with the latter being the more dominant element. We interpret the fixed cost as a ‘learning by doing’ cost for entrepreneurs who undertake risk in the absence of well developed financial markets and institutions that help diversify such risk. As such, this cost may be interpreted as the implicit returns foregone due to the lack of diversification opportunities that would otherwise have been available, had such institutions been present. The analytical and numerical results of the model suggest three growth outcomes depending on the productivity differences between the projects and the fixed cost associated with the more productive project. We label these outcomes as poverty trap, dual economy and balanced growth. Further analysis of these three outcomes highlights the existence of a diversity within diversity. Specifically, within the ‘poverty trap’ and ‘dual economy’ scenarios growth and inequality patterns differ, depending on the initial conditions. This additional diversity allows the model to capture a richer range of outcomes that are consistent with the empirical experience of several transitional economies.

Heart beats and economic decisions : Observing mental stress in the ultimatum bargaining game

One aim of experimental economics is to try to better understand human economic decision making. Early research of the ultimatum bargaining game (Gueth et al., 1982) revealed that other motives than pure monetary reward play a role. Neuroeconomic research has introduced the recording of physiological observations as signals of emotional responses. In this study, we apply heart rate variability (HRV) measuring technology to explore the behaviour and physiological reactions of proposers and responders in the ultimatum bargaining game. Since this technology is small and non-intrusive, we are able to run the experiment in a standard experimental economic setup. We show that low o�ers by a proposer cause signs of mental stress in both the proposer and the responder, as both exhibit high ratios of low to high frequency activity in the HRV spectrum.

News media representations of homelessness : do economic news production pressures prevent journalists from adequately reporting complex social issues

This study used both content and frame analyses to test news-media representations of homelessness in The Courier-Mail newspaper for evidence of restricted journalism practice. Specifically, it sought signs of either direct manipulation of issue representation based on ideological grounds, and also evidence of news organisations prioritising low-cost news production over Public Sphere journalistic news values. The study found that news stories from the earlier parts of the longitudinal study showed stereotypical misrepresentations of homelessness for public deliberation which might be attributed to either, or both of the nominated restricting factors. However news stories from the latter part of the study saw a distinct change in the way the issue was represented, indicating a journalistic capacity to thoughtfully and sensitively represent a complex social issue to the public. Further study is recommended to ascertain how and why this change occurred, so that journalistic practice might be further improved.

Full compensation no longer sacrosanct : reflections on the past and future economic loss ‘cap’ for high income earners

The civil liability provisions relating to the assessment of damages for past and future economic loss have abrogated the common law principle of full compensation by imposing restrictions on the damages award, most commonly by a “three times average weekly earnings” cap. This consideration of the impact of those provisions is informed by a case study of the Supreme Court of Victoria Court of Appeal decision, Tuohey v Freemasons Hospital (Tuohey) , which addressed the construction and arithmetic operation of the Victorian cap for high income earners. While conclusions as to operation of the cap outside of Victoria can be drawn from Tuohey, a number of issues await judicial determination. These issues, which include the impact of the damages caps on the calculation of damages for economic loss in the circumstances of fluctuating income; vicissitudes; contributory negligence; claims per quod servitum amisit; and claims by dependants, are identified and potential resolutions discussed.

Compensation for lost services of an employee : pure economic loss and per quod action

Under the common law an employer may take action against a defendant for the loss of an employee’s services due to the act of the defendant (per quod servitium amisit - by reason of which the services were lost). The High Court has recently affirmed the existence of this ancient tort in Barclay v Penberthy [2012] HCA 40.