Sequential Quantitative Trait Locus Mapping in Experimental Crosses

The etiology of complex diseases is heterogeneous. The presence of risk alleles in one or more genetic loci affects the function of a variety of intermediate biological pathways, resulting in the overt expression of disease. Hence, there is an increasing focus on identifying the genetic basis of disease by sytematically studying phenotypic traits pertaining to the underlying biological functions. In this paper we focus on identifying genetic loci linked to quantitative phenotypic traits in experimental crosses. Such genetic mapping methods often use a one stage design by genotyping all the markers of interest on the available subjects. A genome scan based on single locus or multi-locus models is used to identify the putative loci. Since the number of quantitative trait loci (QTLs) is very likely to be small relative to the number of markers genotyped, a one-stage selective genotyping approach is commonly used to reduce the genotyping burden, whereby markers are genotyped solely on individuals with extreme trait values. This approach is powerful in the presence of a single quantitative trait locus (QTL) but may result in substantial loss of information in the presence of multiple QTLs. Here we investigate the efficiency of sequential two stage designs to identify QTLs in experimental populations. Our investigations for backcross and F2 crosses suggest that genotyping all the markers on 60% of the subjects in Stage 1 and genotyping the chromosomes significant at 20% level using additional subjects in Stage 2 and testing using all the subjects provides an efficient approach to identify the QTLs and utilizes only 70% of the genotyping burden relative to a one stage design, regardless of the heritability and genotyping density. Complex traits are a consequence of multiple QTLs conferring main effects as well as epistatic interactions. We propose a two-stage analytic approach where a single-locus genome scan is conducted in Stage 1 to identify promising chromosomes, and interactions are examined using the loci on these chromosomes in Stage 2. We examine settings under which the two-stage analytic approach provides sufficient power to detect the putative QTLs.

EXPERIMENTAL AND COMPUTATIONAL STUDIES OF ELECTROMAGNETIC CLOAKING AT MICROWAVES

An invisibility cloak is a device that can hide the target by enclosing it from the incident radiation. This intriguing device has attracted a lot of attention since it was first implemented at a microwave frequency in 2006. However, the problems of existing cloak designs prevent them from being widely applied in practice. In this dissertation, we try to remove or alleviate the three constraints for practical applications imposed by loosy cloaking media, high implementation complexity, and small size of hidden objects compared to the incident wavelength. To facilitate cloaking design and experimental characterization, several devices and relevant techniques for measuring the complex permittivity of dielectric materials at microwave frequencies are developed. In particular, a unique parallel plate waveguide chamber has been set up to automatically map the electromagnetic (EM) field distribution for wave propagation through the resonator arrays and cloaking structures. The total scattering cross section of the cloaking structures was derived based on the measured scattering field by using this apparatus. To overcome the adverse effects of lossy cloaking media, microwave cloaks composed of identical dielectric resonators made of low loss ceramic materials are designed and implemented. The effective permeability dispersion was provided by tailoring dielectric resonator filling fractions. The cloak performances had been verified by full-wave simulation of true multi-resonator structures and experimental measurements of the fabricated prototypes. With the aim to reduce the implementation complexity caused by metamaterials employment for cloaking, we proposed to design 2-D cylindrical cloaks and 3-D spherical cloaks by using multi-layer ordinary dielectric material (εr>1) coating. Genetic algorithm was employed to optimize the dielectric profiles of the cloaking shells to provide the minimum scattering cross sections of the cloaked targets. The designed cloaks can be easily scaled to various operating frequencies. The simulation results show that the multi-layer cylindrical cloak essentially outperforms the similarly sized metamaterials-based cloak designed by using the transformation optics-based reduced parameters. For the designed spherical cloak, the simulated scattering pattern shows that the total scattering cross section is greatly reduced. In addition, the scattering in specific directions could be significantly reduced. It is shown that the cloaking efficiency for larger targets could be improved by employing lossy materials in the shell. At last, we propose to hide a target inside a waveguide structure filled with only epsilon near zero materials, which are easy to implement in practice. The cloaking efficiency of this method, which was found to increase for large targets, has been confirmed both theoretically and by simulations.

Sensitive Questions in Online Surveys: An Experimental Evaluation of the Randomized Response Technique and the Crosswise Model

Self-administered online surveys provide a higher level of privacy protection to respondents than surveys administered by an interviewer. Yet, studies indicate that asking sensitive questions is problematic also in self-administered surveys. Because respondents might not be willing to reveal the truth and provide answers that are subject to social desirability bias, the validity of prevalence estimates of sensitive behaviors from online surveys can be challenged. A well-known method to overcome these problems is the Randomized Response Technique (RRT). However, convincing evidence that the RRT provides more valid estimates than direct questioning in online surveys is still lacking. A new variant of the RRT called the Crosswise Model has recently been proposed to overcome some of the deficiencies of existing RRT designs. We therefore conducted an experimental study in which different implementations of the RRT, including two implementations of the crosswise model, were tested and compared to direct questioning. Our study is a large-scale online survey (N = 6,037) on sensitive behaviors by students such as cheating in exams and plagiarism. Results indicate that the crosswise-model RRT---unlike the other variants of RRT we evaluated---yields higher prevalence estimates of sensitive behaviors than direct questioning. Whether higher estimates are a sufficient condition for more valid results, however, remains questionable.

An Experimental Study of Complex-Offer Auctions: Payment Cost Minimization vs. Offer Cost Minimization

A Payment Cost Minimization (PCM) auction has been proposed as an alternative to the Offer Cost Minimization (OCM) auction to be used in wholesale electric power markets with the intention to lower the procurement cost of electricity. Efficiency concerns about this proposal have relied on the assumption of true production cost revelation. Using an experimental approach, I compare the two auctions, strictly controlling for the level of unilateral market power. A specific feature of these complex-offer auctions is that the sellers submit not only the quantities and the minimum prices at which they are willing to sell, but also the start-up fees that are designed to reimburse the fixed start-up costs of the generation plants. I find that both auctions result in start-up fees that are significantly higher than the start-up costs. Overall, the two auctions perform similarly in terms of procurement cost and efficiency. Surprisingly, I do not find a substantial difference between less market power and more market power designs. Both designs result in similar inefficiencies and equally higher procurement costs over the competitive prediction. The PCM auction tends to have lower price volatility than the OCM auction when the market power is minimal but this property vanishes in the designs with market power. These findings lead me to conclude that both the PCM and the OCM auctions do not belong to the class of truth revealing mechanisms and do not easily elicit competitive behavior.

Bayesian doubly optimal group sequential designs for randomized clinical trials

When conducting a randomized comparative clinical trial, ethical, scientific or economic considerations often motivate the use of interim decision rules after successive groups of patients have been treated. These decisions may pertain to the comparative efficacy or safety of the treatments under study, cost considerations, the desire to accelerate the drug evaluation process, or the likelihood of therapeutic benefit for future patients. At the time of each interim decision, an important question is whether patient enrollment should continue or be terminated; either due to a high probability that one treatment is superior to the other, or a low probability that the experimental treatment will ultimately prove to be superior. The use of frequentist group sequential decision rules has become routine in the conduct of phase III clinical trials. In this dissertation, we will present a new Bayesian decision-theoretic approach to the problem of designing a randomized group sequential clinical trial, focusing on two-arm trials with time-to-failure outcomes. Forward simulation is used to obtain optimal decision boundaries for each of a set of possible models. At each interim analysis, we use Bayesian model selection to adaptively choose the model having the largest posterior probability of being correct, and we then make the interim decision based on the boundaries that are optimal under the chosen model. We provide a simulation study to compare this method, which we call Bayesian Doubly Optimal Group Sequential (BDOGS), to corresponding frequentist designs using either O'Brien-Fleming (OF) or Pocock boundaries, as obtained from EaSt 2000. Our simulation results show that, over a wide variety of different cases, BDOGS either performs at least as well as both OF and Pocock, or on average provides a much smaller trial. ^

Bayesian Adaptive Designs for Early Phase Clinical Trials

My dissertation focuses mainly on Bayesian adaptive designs for phase I and phase II clinical trials. It includes three specific topics: (1) proposing a novel two-dimensional dose-finding algorithm for biological agents, (2) developing Bayesian adaptive screening designs to provide more efficient and ethical clinical trials, and (3) incorporating missing late-onset responses to make an early stopping decision. Treating patients with novel biological agents is becoming a leading trend in oncology. Unlike cytotoxic agents, for which toxicity and efficacy monotonically increase with dose, biological agents may exhibit non-monotonic patterns in their dose-response relationships. Using a trial with two biological agents as an example, we propose a phase I/II trial design to identify the biologically optimal dose combination (BODC), which is defined as the dose combination of the two agents with the highest efficacy and tolerable toxicity. A change-point model is used to reflect the fact that the dose-toxicity surface of the combinational agents may plateau at higher dose levels, and a flexible logistic model is proposed to accommodate the possible non-monotonic pattern for the dose-efficacy relationship. During the trial, we continuously update the posterior estimates of toxicity and efficacy and assign patients to the most appropriate dose combination. We propose a novel dose-finding algorithm to encourage sufficient exploration of untried dose combinations in the two-dimensional space. Extensive simulation studies show that the proposed design has desirable operating characteristics in identifying the BODC under various patterns of dose-toxicity and dose-efficacy relationships. Trials of combination therapies for the treatment of cancer are playing an increasingly important role in the battle against this disease. To more efficiently handle the large number of combination therapies that must be tested, we propose a novel Bayesian phase II adaptive screening design to simultaneously select among possible treatment combinations involving multiple agents. Our design is based on formulating the selection procedure as a Bayesian hypothesis testing problem in which the superiority of each treatment combination is equated to a single hypothesis. During the trial conduct, we use the current values of the posterior probabilities of all hypotheses to adaptively allocate patients to treatment combinations. Simulation studies show that the proposed design substantially outperforms the conventional multi-arm balanced factorial trial design. The proposed design yields a significantly higher probability for selecting the best treatment while at the same time allocating substantially more patients to efficacious treatments. The proposed design is most appropriate for the trials combining multiple agents and screening out the efficacious combination to be further investigated. The proposed Bayesian adaptive phase II screening design substantially outperformed the conventional complete factorial design. Our design allocates more patients to better treatments while at the same time providing higher power to identify the best treatment at the end of the trial. Phase II trial studies usually are single-arm trials which are conducted to test the efficacy of experimental agents and decide whether agents are promising to be sent to phase III trials. Interim monitoring is employed to stop the trial early for futility to avoid assigning unacceptable number of patients to inferior treatments. We propose a Bayesian single-arm phase II design with continuous monitoring for estimating the response rate of the experimental drug. To address the issue of late-onset responses, we use a piece-wise exponential model to estimate the hazard function of time to response data and handle the missing responses using the multiple imputation approach. We evaluate the operating characteristics of the proposed method through extensive simulation studies. We show that the proposed method reduces the total length of the trial duration and yields desirable operating characteristics for different physician-specified lower bounds of response rate with different true response rates.

LED backlight designs with the flow-line method

An LED backlight has been designed using the flow-line design method. This method allows a very efficient control of the light extraction. The light is confined inside the guide by total internal reflection, being extracted only by specially calculated surfaces: the ejectors. Backlight designs presented here have a total optical efficiency of up to 80% (including Fresnel and absorption losses) with an FWHM below 30 degrees. The experimental results of the first prototype are shown.

Experimental comparison of FBARs and SMRs responsitivities to mass loadings

The utilisation of thin film technology to develop film bulk acoustic resonators (FBARs) and solidly mounted resonators (SMRs), offers great potential to outperform the sensitivity and minimum detection limit of gravimetric sensors. Up to now, the choice between FBARs and SMRs depends primarily on the users' ability to design and fabricate Bragg reflectors and/or membranes, because neither of these two types of resonators has been demonstrated to be superior to the other. In the work reported here, it is shown that identically designed FBARs and SMRs resonating at the same frequency exhibit different responsitivities, Rm, to mass loadings, being the FBARs more responsive than the SMRs. For the specific device design and resonant frequency (~2 GHz) of the resonators presented, FBARs' mass responsitivity is ~20% greater than that of SMRs, and although this value should not be taken as universal for all possible device designs, it clearly indicates that FBAR devices should be favoured over SMRs in gravimetric sensing applications.

Computational and Experimental Modelling of Mooring Lines Dynamics for Offshore Floating Wind Turbines

El cálculo de cargas de aerogeneradores flotantes requiere herramientas de simulación en el dominio del tiempo que consideren todos los fenómenos que afectan al sistema, como la aerodinámica, la dinámica estructural, la hidrodinámica, las estrategias de control y la dinámica de las líneas de fondeo. Todos estos efectos están acoplados entre sí y se influyen mutuamente. Las herramientas integradas se utilizan para calcular las cargas extremas y de fatiga que son empleadas para dimensionar estructuralmente los diferentes componentes del aerogenerador. Por esta razón, un cálculo preciso de las cargas influye de manera importante en la optimización de los componentes y en el coste final del aerogenerador flotante. En particular, el sistema de fondeo tiene gran impacto en la dinámica global del sistema. Muchos códigos integrados para la simulación de aerogeneradores flotantes utilizan modelos simplificados que no consideran los efectos dinámicos de las líneas de fondeo. Una simulación precisa de las líneas de fondeo dentro de los modelos integrados puede resultar fundamental para obtener resultados fiables de la dinámica del sistema y de los niveles de cargas en los diferentes componentes. Sin embargo, el impacto que incluir la dinámica de los fondeos tiene en la simulación integrada y en las cargas todavía no ha sido cuantificada rigurosamente. El objetivo principal de esta investigación es el desarrollo de un modelo dinámico para la simulación de líneas de fondeo con precisión, validarlo con medidas en un tanque de ensayos e integrarlo en un código de simulación para aerogeneradores flotantes. Finalmente, esta herramienta, experimentalmente validada, es utilizada para cuantificar el impacto que un modelos dinámicos de líneas de fondeo tienen en la computación de las cargas de fatiga y extremas de aerogeneradores flotantes en comparación con un modelo cuasi-estático. Esta es una información muy útil para los futuros diseñadores a la hora de decidir qué modelo de líneas de fondeo es el adecuado, dependiendo del tipo de plataforma y de los resultados esperados. El código dinámico de líneas de fondeo desarrollado en esta investigación se basa en el método de los Elementos Finitos, utilizando en concreto un modelo ”Lumped Mass” para aumentar su eficiencia de computación. Los experimentos realizados para la validación del código se realizaron en el tanque del École Céntrale de Nantes (ECN), en Francia, y consistieron en sumergir una cadena con uno de sus extremos anclados en el fondo del tanque y excitar el extremo suspendido con movimientos armónicos de diferentes periodos. El código demostró su capacidad para predecir la tensión y los movimientos en diferentes posiciones a lo largo de la longitud de la línea con gran precisión. Los resultados indicaron la importancia de capturar la dinámica de las líneas de fondeo para la predicción de la tensión especialmente en movimientos de alta frecuencia. Finalmente, el código se utilizó en una exhaustiva evaluación del efecto que la dinámica de las líneas de fondeo tiene sobre las cargas extremas y de fatiga de diferentes conceptos de aerogeneradores flotantes. Las cargas se calcularon para tres tipologías de aerogenerador flotante (semisumergible, ”spar-buoy” y ”tension leg platform”) y se compararon con las cargas obtenidas utilizando un modelo cuasi-estático de líneas de fondeo. Se lanzaron y postprocesaron más de 20.000 casos de carga definidos por la norma IEC 61400-3 siguiendo todos los requerimientos que una entidad certificadora requeriría a un diseñador industrial de aerogeneradores flotantes. Los resultados mostraron que el impacto de la dinámica de las líneas de fondeo, tanto en las cargas de fatiga como en las extremas, se incrementa conforme se consideran elementos situados más cerca de la plataforma: las cargas en la pala y en el eje sólo son ligeramente modificadas por la dinámica de las líneas, las cargas en la base de la torre pueden cambiar significativamente dependiendo del tipo de plataforma y, finalmente, la tensión en las líneas de fondeo depende fuertemente de la dinámica de las líneas, tanto en fatiga como en extremas, en todos los conceptos de plataforma que se han evaluado. ABSTRACT The load calculation of floating offshore wind turbine requires time-domain simulation tools taking into account all the phenomena that affect the system such as aerodynamics, structural dynamics, hydrodynamics, control actions and the mooring lines dynamics. These effects present couplings and are mutually influenced. The results provided by integrated simulation tools are used to compute the fatigue and ultimate loads needed for the structural design of the different components of the wind turbine. For this reason, their accuracy has an important influence on the optimization of the components and the final cost of the floating wind turbine. In particular, the mooring system greatly affects the global dynamics of the floater. Many integrated codes for the simulation of floating wind turbines use simplified approaches that do not consider the mooring line dynamics. An accurate simulation of the mooring system within the integrated codes can be fundamental to obtain reliable results of the system dynamics and the loads. The impact of taking into account the mooring line dynamics in the integrated simulation still has not been thoroughly quantified. The main objective of this research consists on the development of an accurate dynamic model for the simulation of mooring lines, validate it against wave tank tests and then integrate it in a simulation code for floating wind turbines. This experimentally validated tool is finally used to quantify the impact that dynamic mooring models have on the computation of fatigue and ultimate loads of floating wind turbines in comparison with quasi-static tools. This information will be very useful for future designers to decide which mooring model is adequate depending on the platform type and the expected results. The dynamic mooring lines code developed in this research is based in the Finite Element Method and is oriented to the achievement of a computationally efficient code, selecting a Lumped Mass approach. The experimental tests performed for the validation of the code were carried out at the `Ecole Centrale de Nantes (ECN) wave tank in France, consisting of a chain submerged into a water basin, anchored at the bottom of the basin, where the suspension point of the chain was excited with harmonic motions of different periods. The code showed its ability to predict the tension and the motions at several positions along the length of the line with high accuracy. The results demonstrated the importance of capturing the evolution of the mooring dynamics for the prediction of the line tension, especially for the high frequency motions. Finally, the code was used for an extensive assessment of the effect of mooring dynamics on the computation of fatigue and ultimate loads for different floating wind turbines. The loads were computed for three platforms topologies (semisubmersible, spar-buoy and tension leg platform) and compared with the loads provided using a quasi-static mooring model. More than 20,000 load cases were launched and postprocessed following the IEC 61400-3 guideline and fulfilling the conditions that a certification entity would require to an offshore wind turbine designer. The results showed that the impact of mooring dynamics in both fatigue and ultimate loads increases as elements located closer to the platform are evaluated; the blade and the shaft loads are only slightly modified by the mooring dynamics in all the platform designs, the tower base loads can be significantly affected depending on the platform concept and the mooring lines tension strongly depends on the lines dynamics both in fatigue and extreme loads in all the platform concepts evaluated.

Computerized polymorphic marker identification: Experimental validation and a predicted human polymorphism catalog

A computational system for the prediction of polymorphic loci directly and efficiently from human genomic sequence was developed and verified. A suite of programs, collectively called pompous (polymorphic marker prediction of ubiquitous simple sequences) detects tandem repeats ranging from dinucleotides up to 250 mers, scores them according to predicted level of polymorphism, and designs appropriate flanking primers for PCR amplification. This approach was validated on an approximately 750-kilobase region of human chromosome 3p21.3, involved in lung and breast carcinoma homozygous deletions. Target DNA from 36 paired B lymphoblastoid and lung cancer lines was amplified and allelotyped for 33 loci predicted by pompous to be variable in repeat size. We found that among those 36 predominately Caucasian individuals 22 of the 33 (67%) predicted loci were polymorphic with an average heterozygosity of 0.42. Allele loss in this region was found in 27/36 (75%) of the tumor lines using these markers. pompous provides the genetic researcher with an additional tool for the rapid and efficient identification of polymorphic markers, and through a World Wide Web site, investigators can use pompous to identify polymorphic markers for their research. A catalog of 13,261 potential polymorphic markers and associated primer sets has been created from the analysis of 141,779,504 base pairs of human genomic sequence in GenBank. This data is available on our Web site (pompous.swmed.edu) and will be updated periodically as GenBank is expanded and algorithm accuracy is improved.

Optimizing the number of stations in arrays measurements: experimental outcomes for different array geometries and the f-k method

Array measurements have become a valuable tool for site response characterization in a non-invasive way. The array design, i.e. size, geometry and number of stations, has a great influence in the quality of the obtained results. From the previous parameters, the number of available stations uses to be the main limitation for the field experiments, because of the economical and logistical constraints that it involves. Sometimes, from the initially planned array layout, carefully designed before the fieldwork campaign, one or more stations do not work properly, modifying the prearranged geometry. Whereas other times, there is not possible to set up the desired array layout, because of the lack of stations. Therefore, for a planned array layout, the number of operative stations and their arrangement in the array become a crucial point in the acquisition stage and subsequently in the dispersion curve estimation. In this paper we carry out an experimental work to analyze which is the minimum number of stations that would provide reliable dispersion curves for three prearranged array configurations (triangular, circular with central station and polygonal geometries). For the optimization study, we analyze together the theoretical array responses and the experimental dispersion curves obtained through the f-k method. In the case of the f-k method, we compare the dispersion curves obtained for the original or prearranged arrays with the ones obtained for the modified arrays, i.e. the dispersion curves obtained when a certain number of stations n is removed, each time, from the original layout of X geophones. The comparison is evaluated by means of a misfit function, which helps us to determine how constrained are the studied geometries by stations removing and which station or combination of stations affect more to the array capability when they are not available. All this information might be crucial to improve future array designs, determining when it is possible to optimize the number of arranged stations without losing the reliability of the obtained results.

Recovery of coliforms by the MPN and MF techniques using a 2n - factorial experimental design /

Bibliography: p. 37-39.

Designs for generalized linear models with several variables and model uncertainty

Standard factorial designs sometimes may be inadequate for experiments that aim to estimate a generalized linear model, for example, for describing a binary response in terms of several variables. A method is proposed for finding exact designs for such experiments that uses a criterion allowing for uncertainty in the link function, the linear predictor, or the model parameters, together with a design search. Designs are assessed and compared by simulation of the distribution of efficiencies relative to locally optimal designs over a space of possible models. Exact designs are investigated for two applications, and their advantages over factorial and central composite designs are demonstrated.

The role of self-regulation as a meta-competency in developing leaders: a longitudinal field experimental study

The question of how to develop leaders so that they are more effective in a variety of situations, roles and levels has inspired a voluminous amount of research. While leader development programs such as executive coaching and 360-degree feedback have been widely practiced to meet this demand within organisations, the research in this area has only scratched the surface. Drawing from the past literature and leadership practices, the current research conceptualised self-regulation, as a metacompetency that would assist leaders to further develop the specific competencies needed to perform effectively in their leadership role, leading to an increased rating of leader effectiveness and to enhanced group performance. To test this conceptualisation, a longitudinal field experimental study was conducted across ten months with a pre- and two post-test intervention designs with a matched control group. This longitudinal field experimental compared the difference in leader and team performance after receiving self-regulation intervention that was delivered by an executive coach. Leaders in experimental group also received feedback reports from 360-degree feedback at each stage. Participants were 40 leaders, 155 followers and 8 supervisors. Leaders’ performance was measured using a multi-source perceptual measure of leader performance and objective measures of team financial and assessment performance. Analyses using repeated measure of ANCOVA on pre-test and two post-tests responses showed a significant difference between leader and team performance between experimental and control group. Furthermore, leader competencies mediated the relationship between self-regulation and performance. The implications of these findings for the theory and practice of leadership development training programs and the impact on organisational performance are discussed.

Approximately optimal experimental design for heteroscedastic Gaussian process models

This paper presents a greedy Bayesian experimental design criterion for heteroscedastic Gaussian process models. The criterion is based on the Fisher information and is optimal in the sense of minimizing parameter uncertainty for likelihood based estimators. We demonstrate the validity of the criterion under different noise regimes and present experimental results from a rabies simulator to demonstrate the effectiveness of the resulting approximately optimal designs.