Comparative analysis between statistical and artificial intelligence models in business failure prediction

A growing number of predicting corporate failure models has emerged since 60s. Economic and social consequences of business failure can be dramatic, thus it is not surprise that the issue has been of growing interest in academic research as well as in business context. The main purpose of this study is to compare the predictive ability of five developed models based on three statistical techniques (Discriminant Analysis, Logit and Probit) and two models based on Artificial Intelligence (Neural Networks and Rough Sets). The five models were employed to a dataset of 420 non-bankrupt firms and 125 bankrupt firms belonging to the textile and clothing industry, over the period 2003–09. Results show that all the models performed well, with an overall correct classification level higher than 90%, and a type II error always less than 2%. The type I error increases as we move away from the year prior to failure. Our models contribute to the discussion of corporate financial distress causes. Moreover it can be used to assist decisions of creditors, investors and auditors. Additionally, this research can be of great contribution to devisers of national economic policies that aim to reduce industrial unemployment.

Survival Analysis Employed in Predicting Corporate Failure: A Forecasting Model Proposal

In face of the current economic and financial environment, predicting corporate bankruptcy is arguably a phenomenon of increasing interest to investors, creditors, borrowing firms, and governments alike. Within the strand of literature focused on bankruptcy forecasting we can find diverse types of research employing a wide variety of techniques, but only a few researchers have used survival analysis for the examination of this issue. We propose a model for the prediction of corporate bankruptcy based on survival analysis, a technique which stands on its own merits. In this research, the hazard rate is the probability of ‘‘bankruptcy’’ as of time t, conditional upon having survived until time t. Many hazard models are applied in a context where the running of time naturally affects the hazard rate. The model employed in this paper uses the time of survival or the hazard risk as dependent variable, considering the unsuccessful companies as censured observations.

Comparative Analysis between Statistical and Artificial Intelligence Models in Business Failure Prediction

A growing number of predicting corporate failure models has emerged since 60s. Economic and social consequences of business failure can be dramatic, thus it is not surprise that the issue has been of growing interest in academic research as well as in business context. The main purpose of this study is to compare the predictive ability of five developed models based on three statistical techniques (Discriminant Analysis, Logit and Probit) and two models based on Artificial Intelligence (Neural Networks and Rough Sets). The five models were employed to a dataset of 420 non-bankrupt firms and 125 bankrupt firms belonging to the textile and clothing industry, over the period 2003–09. Results show that all the models performed well, with an overall correct classification level higher than 90%, and a type II error always less than 2%. The type I error increases as we move away from the year prior to failure. Our models contribute to the discussion of corporate financial distress causes. Moreover it can be used to assist decisions of creditors, investors and auditors. Additionally, this research can be of great contribution to devisers of national economic policies that aim to reduce industrial unemployment.

Aplicação do Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) na demolição, movimento de terras e execução da estrutura em edifícios

Mestrado em Engenharia Civil - Ramo Tecnologia e gestão das Construções

Towards realistic core-failure-resilient scheduling and analysis

Presented at IEEE Real-Time Systems Symposium (RTSS 2015). 1 to 4, Dec, 2015. San Antonio, U.S.A..

Towards realistic core-failure-resilient scheduling and analysis

Presented at IEEE Real-Time Systems Symposium (RTSS 2015). 1 to 4, Dec, 2015. San Antonio, U.S.A..

Governmental start-up support in the light of allocative market failure : justification, analysis, and design

Magdeburg, Univ., Fak. für Wirtschaftswiss., Diss., 2011

Effects of Yoga in Patients with Chronic Heart Failure: A Meta-Analysis

The use of yoga as an effective cardiac rehabilitation in patients with chronic heart failure (CHF) remains controversial. We performed a meta-analysis to examine the effects of yoga on exercise capacity and health-related quality of life (HRQOL) in patients with CHF. Methods: We searched MEDLINE, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, Excerpta Medica database, LILACS, Physiotherapy Evidence Database, The Scientific Electronic Library Online, and Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health (from the earliest date available to December 2013) for randomized controlled trials (RCTs) examining the effects of yoga versus exercise and/or of yoga versus control on exercise capacity (peakVO2) and quality-of-life (HRQOL) in CHF. Two reviewers selected studies independently. Weighted mean differences (WMDs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated, and heterogeneity was assessed using the I2 test. Two studies met the selection criteria (total: 30 yoga and 29 control patients). The results suggested that yoga compared with control had a positive impact on peak VO2 and HRQOL. Peak VO2, WMD (3.87 95% CI: 1.95 to 5.80), and global HRQOL standardized mean differences (-12.46 95% CI: -22.49 to -2.43) improved in the yoga group compared to the control group. Yoga enhances peak VO2 and HRQOL in patients with CHF and could be considered for inclusion in cardiac rehabilitation programs. Larger RCTs are required to further investigate the effects of yoga in patients with CHF.

Meta-Analysis of Ultrafiltration versus Diuretics Treatment Option for Overload Volume Reduction in Patients with Acute Decompensated Heart Failure

Introduction: Although diuretics are mainly used for the treatment of acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF), inadequate responses and complications have led to the use of extracorporeal ultrafiltration (UF) as an alternative strategy for reducing volume overloads in patients with ADHF. Objective: The aim of our study is to perform meta-analysis of the results obtained from studies on extracorporeal venous ultrafiltration and compare them with those of standard diuretic treatment for overload volume reduction in acute decompensated heart failure. Methods: MEDLINE, EMBASE, and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials databases were systematically searched using a pre‑specified criterion. Pooled estimates of outcomes after 48 h (weight change, serum creatinine level, and all-cause mortality) were computed using random effect models. Pooled weighted mean differences were calculated for weight loss and change in creatinine level, whereas a pooled risk ratio was used for the analysis of binary all-cause mortality outcome. Results: A total of nine studies, involving 613 patients, met the eligibility criteria. The mean weight loss in patients who underwent UF therapy was 1.78 kg [95% Confidence Interval (CI): −2.65 to −0.91 kg; p < 0.001) more than those who received standard diuretic therapy. The post-intervention creatinine level, however, was not significantly different (mean change = −0.25 mg/dL; 95% CI: −0.56 to 0.06 mg/dL; p = 0.112). The risk of all-cause mortality persisted in patients treated with UF compared with patients treated with standard diuretics (Pooled RR = 1.00; 95% CI: 0.64–1.56; p = 0.993). Conclusion: Compared with standard diuretic therapy, UF treatment for overload volume reduction in individuals suffering from ADHF, resulted in significant reduction of body weight within 48 h. However, no significant decrease of serum creatinine level or reduction of all-cause mortality was observed.

Analysis Treatment Guideline versus Clinical Practice Protocol in Patients Hospitalized due to Heart Failure

Background: Despite the availability of guidelines for treatment of heart failure (HF), only a few studies have assessed how hospitals adhere to the recommended therapies. Objectives: Compare the rates of adherence to the prescription of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor or angiotensin II receptor blockers (ACEI/ARB) at hospital discharge, which is considered a quality indicator by the Joint Commission International, and to the prescription of beta-blockers at hospital discharge, which is recommended by national and international guidelines, in a hospital with a case management program to supervise the implementation of a clinical practice protocol (HCP) and another hospital that follows treatment guidelines (HCG). Methods: Prospective observational study that evaluated patients consecutively admitted to both hospitals due to decompensated HF between August 1st, 2006, and December 31st, 2008. We used as comparing parameters the prescription rates of beta-blockers and ACEI/ARB at hospital discharge and in-hospital mortality. Results: We analyzed 1,052 patients (30% female, mean age 70.6 ± 14.1 years), 381 (36%) of whom were seen at HCG and 781 (64%) at HCP. The prescription rates of beta-blockers at discharge at HCG and HCP were both 69% (p = 0.458), whereas those of ACEI/ARB were 83% and 86%, respectively (p = 0.162). In-hospital mortality rates were 16.5% at HCP and 27.8% at HCG (p < 0.001). Conclusion: There was no difference in prescription rates of beta-blocker and ACEI/ARB at hospital discharge between the institutions, but HCP had lower in-hospital mortality. This difference in mortality may be attributed to different clinical characteristics of the patients in both hospitals.

The study of insect blood-feeding behaviour: 1. Feeding equipment, physical and endogenous factors, dose effect analysis, and diet destination

Experimental techniques that we have found useful during our studies of insect blood-feeding behaviour are reviewed. Some of the principal findings resulting from these techniques are discussed. Where directly applicable, the work of others is included, but no complete review of the subject has been attempted.

Structural analysis of Turtle mountain (Alberta) using digital elevation model: Toward a progressive failure

In 1903, the eastern slope of Turtle Mountain (Alberta) was affected by a 30 M m3-rockslide named Frank Slide that resulted in more than 70 casualties. Assuming that the main discontinuity sets, including bedding, control part of the slope morphology, the structural features of Turtle Mountain were investigated using a digital elevation model (DEM). Using new landscape analysis techniques, we have identified three main joint and fault sets. These results are in agreement with those sets identified through field observations. Landscape analysis techniques, using a DEM, confirm and refine the most recent geology model of the Frank Slide. The rockslide was initiated along bedding and a fault at the base of the slope and propagated up slope by a regressive process following a surface composed of pre-existing discontinuities. The DEM analysis also permits the identification of important geological structures along the 1903 slide scar. Based on the so called Sloping Local Base Level (SLBL) an estimation was made of the present unstable volumes in the main scar delimited by the cracks, and around the south area of the scar (South Peak). The SLBL is a method permitting a geometric interpretation of the failure surface based on a DEM. Finally we propose a failure mechanism permitting the progressive failure of the rock mass that considers gentle dipping wedges (30°). The prisms or wedges defined by two discontinuity sets permit the creation of a failure surface by progressive failure. Such structures are more commonly observed in recent rockslides. This method is efficient and is recommended as a preliminary analysis prior to field investigation.

Structures and failure mechanisms analysis of Turtle Mountain

The 30 M m3 rockslide that occurred on the east face of Turtle Mountain in the Crowsnest Pass area (Alberta) in 1903 is one of the most famous landslides in the world. In this paper, the structural features of the South part of Turtle Mountain are investigated in order to understand the present-day scar morphology and to identify the most important failure mechanisms. The structural features were mapped using a high resolution digital elevation model (DEM) in order to have a large overview of the relevant structural features. At the same time, a field survey was carried out and small scale fractures were analyzed in different parts of southern Turtle Mountain in order to confirm the DEM analysis. Results allow to identify six main discontinuity sets that influence the Turtle Mountain morphology. These discontinuity sets were then used to identify the potential failure mechanisms affecting Third Peak and South Peak area.

Interim analysis of the Reitan Catheter Pump (RCP) heart failure efficacy study: RCP improves cardiovascular and renal function in acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF)

Background: The RCP is a 14 French collapsable percutaneous cardiovascular support device positioned in the descending part of the thoracic aorta via the femoral artery. A 10 patient first in man study demonstrated device safety and significant improvement in renal function among high risk PCI patients. We now report haemodynamic and renal efficacy in patients with ADHF.Methods: Prospective non randomised study seeking to recruit 20 patients with ADHF with a need for inotropic or mechanical circulatory support with: i) EF < 30% ii)Cardiac index(CI) < 2.2 L / min / m2 Outcome measures included: 1) Cardiac index (CI) 2) Pulmonary Capillary Wedge Pressure (PCWP) 3) Urine output / serum creatinine 4) Vascular / device complications 5) 30 day mortalityResults: INTERIM ANALYSIS (n=12) The mean age of the study group was 64 years, with a mean baseline creatinine of 193 umol/L, eGFR 38 ml/min. The intended RCP treatment period was 24 hours. During RCP treatment there was a significant mean reduction of PCWP at 4 hours of 17% (25 to 21 mmHg p=0.04). Mean CI increased at 12 hours by 11%, though not reaching significance (1.78 to 1.96 L/min/m2 p=0.08). RCP insertion prompted substantial diuresis. Urine output tripled over the first 12 hours compared to baseline (55 ml/hr vs 213 ml/hr p=0.03). This was associated with significantly improved renal function, a 28% reduction in serum creatinine at 12 hours (193 to 151 umol/L p=0.003), and a increase in eGFR from 38 ml/min to 50 ml/min (p=0.0007). 2 patients previously refused cardiac transplantation were reassessed and successfully transplanted within 9 months of RCP treatment on the basis of demonstrable renal reversibility. There were no vascular or device complications. There were 2 deaths at 30 days, one from multi-organ failure and sepsis, and one from intractable heart failure - neither were device related.Conclusion: RCP support in ADHF patients was associated with improved haemodynamics, and an improvement in renal function. The Reitan Catheter Pump may have a role in providing percutaneous cardiovascular and renal support in the acutely decompensated cardiac patient, and may have a role in suggesting renal reversibility in potential cardiac transplant patients. Further data will be reported at recruitment completion.

Syphilis in HIV-infected patients: Predictors for serological failure and serofast state.

Purpose: HIV-infected patients treated for syphilis may be at increased risk for serological failure and serofast state. Our aim was to analyse serological response to treatment in HIV-infected patients diagnosed with syphilis, and factors associated with serological cure and serofast state. Methods: Open-label, no controlled study of a series of HIV- patients diagnosed with syphilis during 2004-2011. Patients were categorized by rapid plasma reagin titer (RPR) into success (4-fold decrease in RPR by 12 or 24 months after treatment of early or late syphilis), serofast (success with persistently stable reactive RPR), and failure/ re-infection ( failure to decrease 4-fold in RPR by 12 or 24 months after treatment or sustained 4-fold increase in RPR after treatment response). Results: 141 HIV- patients were diagnosed with syphilis during the study period (104 early syphilis, 36 late or indeterminate latent syphilis). The mean age was 36.3 years, 98.5% were male, and 87.2% homosexual men. In 46 (32.6%) cases, HIV and syphilis infection diagnosis were coincident (mean CD4 457/mm3 and HIV-VL 4.72 log10). Among patients with prior known HIV infection, 65 were on antiretroviral therapy (ART) at syphilis diagnosis (mean CD4 469/ mm3, 76.9% undetectable HIV-VL). 116 patients satisfied criteria for serological response analysis (89 early, 24 late/indeterminate). At 12 months of early syphilis treatment (89.2% penicillin) there were 16 (18%) failures, and at 24 months of late/indeterminate syphilis (91.7% penicillin) there were 5 (18.5%) failures. Overall, 36 (31.0%) patients presented serofast state. Treatment failure was related with lower CD4 count (295 vs 510/μL; p=0.045) only in patients with coincident diagnosis. Serofast state was related with older age (41 vs 36 years; p=0.024), and lower CD4 count (391 vs 513/mm3; p=0.026). Conclusions: In this series of HIV-infected patients, with many patients on ART and with good immunological and virological parameters, serological failure and serofast state were frequent. Immunological status, and age could influence on serological response to syphilis treatment in HIV-infected patients.