An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the Agriculture, Energy and Health sectors in Trinidad and Tobago

This report analyses the agriculture, energy, and health sectors in Trinidad and Tobago to assess the potential economic impacts of climate change on the sectors. The fundamental aim of this report is to assist with the development of strategies to deal with the potential impact of climate change on Trinidad and Tobago. It also has the potential to provide essential input for identifying and preparing policies and strategies to help advance the Caribbean subregion closer to solving problems associated with climate change and attaining individual and regional sustainable development goals. Some of the key anticipated impacts of climate change for the Caribbean include elevated air and sea-surface temperatures, sea-level rise, possible changes in extreme events and a reduction in freshwater resources. The economic impact of climate change on the three sectors was estimated for the A2 and B2 IPCC scenarios until 2050. An exploration of various adaptation strategies was also undertaken for each sector using standard evaluation techniques. The study of the impact of climate change on the agriculture sector focused on root crops, green vegetables and fisheries. For these sectors combined, the cumulative loss under the A2 scenario is calculated as approximately B$2.24 and approximately B$1.72 under the B2 scenario by 2050. This is equivalent to 1.37% and 1.05% of the 2008 GDP under the A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively. Given the potential for significant damage to the agriculture sector a large number of potential adaptation measures were considered. Out of these a short-list of 10 potential options were selected by applying 10 evaluation criteria. All of the adaptation strategies showed positive benefits. The analysis indicate that the options with the highest net benefits are: (1) Building on-farm water storage, (2) Mainstreaming climate change issues into agricultural management and (3) Using drip irrigation. Other attractive options include water harvesting. The policy decisions by governments should include these assessments, the omitted intangible benefits, as well as the provision of other social goals such as employment. The analysis of the energy sector has shown that the economic impact of climate change during 2011-2050 is similar under the A2 (US$142.88 million) and B2 (US$134.83 million) scenarios with A2 scenario having a slightly higher cost (0.737% of 2009 GDP) than the B2 scenario (0.695% of 2009 GDP) for the period. On the supply side, analyses indicate that Trinidad and Tobago’s energy sector will be susceptible to the climate change policies of major energy-importing countries (the United States of America and China), and especially to their renewable energy strategies. Implementation of foreign oil substitution policy by the United States of America will result in a decline in Trinidad and Tobago’s Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) export (equivalent to 2.2% reduction in 2009 GDP) unless an alternative market is secured for the lost United States of America market. China, with its rapid economic growth and the highest population in the world, offers a potential replacement market for Trinidad and Tobago’s LNG export. In this context the A2 scenario will offer the best option for Trinidad and Tobago’s energy sector. The cost-benefit analysis undertaken on selected adaptation strategies reveal that the benefit-cost ratio of replacing electric water heaters with solar water heaters is the most cost-effective. It was also found that the introduction of Compact Fluorescent Light (CFL) and Variable Refrigerant Volume (VRV) air conditioners surpasses the projected cost of increased electricity consumption due to climate change, and provides an economic rationale for the adoption of these adaptation options even in a situation of increased electricity consumption occasioned by climate change. Finally, the conversion of motor fleets to Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) is a cost-effective adaptation option for the transport sector, although it has a high initial cost of implementation and the highest per capita among the four adaptation options evaluated. To investigate the effect of climate change on the health sector dengue fever, leptospirosis, food borne illnesses, and gastroenteritis were examined. The total number of new dengue cases for the period 2008 to 2050 was 204,786 for BAU, 153,725 for A2 and 131,890 for the B2 scenario. With regard to the results for leptospirosis, A2 and B2 seem to be following a similar path with total number of new cases in the A2 scenario being 9,727 and 9,218 cases under the B2 scenario. Although incidence levels in the BAU scenario coincided with those of A2 and B2 prior to 2020, they are somewhat lower post 2020. A similar picture emerges for the scenarios as they relate to food-borne illnesses and to gastroenteritis. Specifically for food-borne illnesses, the BAU scenario recorded 27,537 cases, the A2 recorded 28,568 cases and the B2 recorded 28,679 cases. The focus on the selected sources of morbidity in the health sector has highlighted the fact that the vulnerability of the country’s health sector to climate change does not depend solely on exogenously derived impacts, but also on the behaviour and practices among the population. It is clear that the vulnerability which became evident in the analysis of the impacts on dengue fever, leptospirosis and food-borne illnesses is not restricted solely to climate or other external factors. The most important adaptation strategy being recommended targets lifestyle, behaviour and attitude changes. The population needs to be encouraged to alter their behaviours and practices so as to minimise their exposure to harmful outcomes as it relates to the incidence of these diseases.

Energy and hydraulic efficiency in conventional water supply systems

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Energy and protein requirements of male and female saanen goats

Pós-graduação em Zootecnia - FCAV

Correlation Between Apparent Activation Energy and NOx emission of renewable diesel from sugar cane, biodiesel, fossil diesel and their blends

Biofuels and their blends with fossil fuel are important energy resources, which production and application have been largely increased internationally. This study focus on the development of a correlation between apparent activation energy (Ea) and NOx emission of the thermal decomposition of three pure fuels: farnasane (renewable diesel from sugar cane), biodiesel and fossil diesel and their blends. Apparent Activation energy was determined by using thermogravimetry and Model-Free Kinetics. NOx emission was obtained from the European Stationary Cycle (ESC) with OM 926LA CONAMA P7/Euro 5 engine. Results showed that there is a linear correlation between apparent activation energy and NOx emission with R2 of 0,9667 considering pure fuels and their blends which is given as: NOx = 2,2514Ea - 96,309. The average absolute error of this correlation is 2.96% with respect to the measured NOx value. The main advantage of this correlation is its capability to predict NOx emission when either a new pure fuel or a blend of fuels is proposed to use in enginees.

Vacuum energy and the fixed point of QED

The vacuum energy of QED, as a function of the coupling constant α, is shown to have an absolute minimum at the critical coupling αc=π/3. The effect of chiral symmetry breaking diminishes as the coupling is increased. We argue that these aspects of the vacuum energy shall remain unaltered beyond the ladder approximation.

Efficiency in Brazil's industrial sectors in terms of energy and sustainable development

This article evaluates the efficiency of Brazil's industrial sectors from 1996 to 2009, taking into account energy consumption and respective contributions to the country's economic and social aspects. This analysis used a mathematical programming method called Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), which enabled, from the SBM model and the window analysis, to evaluate the ability of industries to reduce energy consumption and fossil-fuel CO2 emissions (inputs), as well as to increase the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by sectors, the persons employed and personnel expenses (outputs). The results of this study indicated that the Textile sector is the most efficient industrial sector in Brazil, according to the variables used, followed by these sectors: Foods and Beverages, Chemical, Mining, Paper and Pulp, Nonmetallic and Metallurgical.

Indicators to the consumption of electric energy and agriculture cattle farming production for the elaboration of clusters with cities of the state of São Paulo, Brazil

The issue in this matter is that rules for use of electricity in rural areas are limited to the provision of inputs. Adopting guidelines to consider managed sub regions can generate poor results. The focus of this study was to present parameters for indicators of electric energy and agricultural production to allow the formation of city groups in Sao Paulo State, Brazil, with similar electric energy consumption and rural agricultural production. The methodology was the development of indicators that characterize the electric energy consumption/agricultural production and the preparation of groups using indicators with ward of statistical method of groups. The main conclusions were the formation of six homogeneous groups with similar characteristics regarding agricultural production/consumption of electricity. The application of these groups in cities with similar characteristics would produce more satisfactory results than the division of administrative Rural Development Offices (RDO).

PowerPoint on Water, Food, Energy, and Youth, Families and Communities

Thank you for this opportunity to speak with you today. It's always my pleasure to talk about the exciting work occurring in the Institute of Agriculture and Natural Resources.

Optical transition radiation used in the diagnostic of low energy and low current electron beams in particle accelerators

Optical transition radiation (OTR) plays an important role in beam diagnostics for high energy particle accelerators. Its linear intensity with beam current is a great advantage as compared to fluorescent screens, which are subject to saturation. Moreover, the measurement of the angular distribution of the emitted radiation enables the determination of many beam parameters in a single observation point. However, few works deals with the application of OTR to monitor low energy beams. In this work we describe the design of an OTR based beam monitor used to measure the transverse beam charge distribution of the 1.9-MeV electron beam of the linac injector of the IFUSP microtron using a standard vision machine camera. The average beam current in pulsed operation mode is of the order of tens of nano-Amps. Low energy and low beam current make OTR observation difficult. To improve sensitivity, the beam incidence angle on the target was chosen to maximize the photon flux in the camera field-of-view. Measurements that assess OTR observation (linearity with beam current, polarization, and spectrum shape) are presented, as well as a typical 1.9-MeV electron beam charge distribution obtained from OTR. Some aspects of emittance measurement using this device are also discussed. (C) 2012 American Institute of Physics. [http://dx.doi.org/10.1063/1.4748519]

Metabolizable energy and oil intake in brown commercial layers

With the objective to establish the best metabolizable energy (ME) intake for layers, and the best dietary vegetable oil addition level to optimize egg production, an experiment was carried out with 432 30-week-old Hisex Brown layers. Birds were distributed into nine treatments with six replicates of eight birds each according to a 3 x 3 factorial arrangement, consisting of three daily metabolizable energy intake (280, 300 or 320 kcal/bird/day) and three oil levels (0.00; 0.75 and 1.50 g/bird/day). Daily feed intake was limited to 115, 110 and 105 g/bird in order to obtain the desired energy and oil intake in each treatment. The following parameters were evaluated: initial weight, final weight, body weight change, egg production, egg mass, feed conversion ratio per dozen eggs and per egg mass and energy conversion. There was no influence of the treatments on egg production (%) or egg mass (g/bird/day). Final weight and body weight change were significantly affected by increasing energy intake. Feed conversion ratio per egg mass, feed conversion ratio per dozen eggs and energy conversion significantly worsened as a function of the increase in daily energy intake. An energy intake of 280 kcal/bird/day with no addition of dietary oil does not affect layer performance.

Decay of energy and suppression of Fermi acceleration in a dissipative driven stadium-like billiard

The behavior of the average energy for an ensemble of non-interacting particles is studied using scaling arguments in a dissipative time-dependent stadium-like billiard. The dynamics of the system is described by a four dimensional nonlinear mapping. The dissipation is introduced via inelastic collisions between the particles and the moving boundary. For different combinations of initial velocities and damping coefficients, the long time dynamics of the particles leads them to reach different states of final energy and to visit different attractors, which change as the dissipation is varied. The decay of the average energy of the particles, which is observed for a large range of restitution coefficients and different initial velocities, is described using scaling arguments. Since this system exhibits unlimited energy growth in the absence of dissipation, our results for the dissipative case give support to the principle that Fermi acceleration seems not to be a robust phenomenon. (C) 2012 American Institute of Physics. [http://dx.doi.org/10.1063/1.3699465]

Fiber fermentability effects on energy and macronutrient digestibility, fecal traits, postprandial metabolite responses, and colon histology of overweight cats

Considering the different potential benefits of divergent fiber ingredients, the effect of 3 fiber sources on energy and macronutrient digestibility, fermentation product formation, postprandial metabolite responses, and colon histology of overweight cats (Felis catus) fed kibble diets was compared. Twenty-four healthy adult cats were assigned in a complete randomized block design to 2 groups of 12 animals, and 3 animals from each group were fed 1 of 4 of the following kibble diets: control (CO; 11.5% dietary fiber), beet pulp (BP; 26% dietary fiber), wheat bran (WB; 24% dietary fiber), and sugarcane fiber (SF; 28% dietary fiber). Digestibility was measured by the total collection of feces. After 16 d of diet adaptation and an overnight period without food, blood glucose, cholesterol, and triglyceride postprandial responses were evaluated for 16 h after continued exposure to food. On d 20, colon biopsies of the cats were collected under general anesthesia. Fiber addition reduced food energy and nutrient digestibility. Of all the fiber sources, SF had the least dietary fiber digestibility (P < 0.05), causing the largest reduction of dietary energy digestibility (P < 0.05). The greater fermentability of BP resulted in reduced fecal DM and pH, greater fecal production [g/(cat x d); as-is], and greater fecal concentration of acetate, propionate, and lactate (P < 0.05). For most fecal variables, WB was intermediate between BP and SF, and SF was similar to the control diet except for an increased fecal DM and firmer feces production for the SF diet (P < 0.05). Postprandial evaluations indicated reduced mean glucose concentration and area under the glucose curve in cats fed the SF diet (P < 0.05). Colon mucosa thickness, crypt area, lamina propria area, goblet cell area, crypt mean size, and crypt in bifurcation did not vary among the diets. According to the fiber solubility and fermentation rates, fiber sources can induce different physiological responses in cats, reduce energy digestibility, and favor glucose metabolism (SF), or improve gut health (BP).

ENERGY AND VOLUME OF VECTOR FIELDS ON SPHERICAL DOMAINS

We present a "boundary version" for theorems about minimality of volume and energy functionals on a spherical domain of an odd-dimensional Euclidean sphere.

Energy and system-size dependence of two- and four-particle nu(2) measurements in heavy-ion collisions at root S-NN=62.4 and 200 GeV and their implications on flow fluctuations and nonflow

We present STAR measurements of azimuthal anisotropy by means of the two- and four-particle cumulants nu(2) (nu(2){2} and nu(2){4}) for Au + Au and Cu + Cu collisions at center-of-mass energies root S-NN = 62.4 and 200 GeV. The difference between nu(2){2}(2) and nu(2){4}(2) is related to nu(2) fluctuations (sigma(nu 2)) and nonflow (delta(2)). We present an upper limit to sigma(nu 2)/nu 2. Following the assumption that eccentricity fluctuations sigma(epsilon) dominate nu(2) fluctuations nu(2)/sigma nu(2) approximate to epsilon/sigma epsilon we deduce the nonflow implied for several models of eccentricity fluctuations that would be required for consistency with nu(2){2} and nu(2){4}. We also present results on the ratio of nu(2) to eccentricity.