Use of Statistical Methods in Demand Planning

In a very volatile industry of high technology it is of utmost importance to accurately forecast customers’ demand. However, statistical forecasting of sales, especially in heavily competitive electronics product business, has always been a challenging task due to very high variation in demand and very short product life cycles of products. The purpose of this thesis is to validate if statistical methods can be applied to forecasting sales of short life cycle electronics products and provide a feasible framework for implementing statistical forecasting in the environment of the case company. Two different approaches have been developed for forecasting on short and medium term and long term horizons. Both models are based on decomposition models, but differ in interpretation of the model residuals. For long term horizons residuals are assumed to represent white noise, whereas for short and medium term forecasting horizon residuals are modeled using statistical forecasting methods. Implementation of both approaches is performed in Matlab. Modeling results have shown that different markets exhibit different demand patterns and therefore different analytical approaches are appropriate for modeling demand in these markets. Moreover, the outcomes of modeling imply that statistical forecasting can not be handled separately from judgmental forecasting, but should be perceived only as a basis for judgmental forecasting activities. Based on modeling results recommendations for further deployment of statistical methods in sales forecasting of the case company are developed.

Simulation-based evaluation of susceptibility distortion correction methods in diffusion MRI for connectivity analysis

Connectivity analysis on diffusion MRI data of the whole- brain suffers from distortions caused by the standard echo- planar imaging acquisition strategies. These images show characteristic geometrical deformations and signal destruction that are an important drawback limiting the success of tractography algorithms. Several retrospective correction techniques are readily available. In this work, we use a digital phantom designed for the evaluation of connectivity pipelines. We subject the phantom to a âeurooetheoretically correctâeuro and plausible deformation that resembles the artifact under investigation. We correct data back, with three standard methodologies (namely fieldmap-based, reversed encoding-based, and registration- based). Finally, we rank the methods based on their geometrical accuracy, the dropout compensation, and their impact on the resulting connectivity matrices.

Coaching agile methods in research and development projects

Agile coaching of a project team is one way to aid learning of the agile methods. The objective of this thesis is to present the agile coaching plan and to follow how complying the plan affects to the project teams. Furthermore, the agile methods are followed how they work in the projects. Two projects are used to help the research. From the thesis point of view, the task for the first project is to coach the project team and two new coaches. The task for the second project is also to coach the project team, but this time so that one of the new coaches acts as the coach. The agile methods Scrum process and Extreme programming are utilized by the projects. In the latter, the test driven development, continuous integration and pair programming are concentrated more precisely. The results of the work are based on the observations from the projects and the analysis derived from the observations. The results are divided to the effects of the coaching and to functionality of the agile methods in the projects. Because of the small sample set, the results are directional. The presented plan, to coach the agile methods, needs developing, but the results of the functionality of the agile methods are encouraging.

The application of cDNA and tissue microarray methods in the study of human carcinomas

Currently, numerous high-throughput technologies are available for the study of human carcinomas. In literature, many variations of these techniques have been described. The common denominator for these methodologies is the high amount of data obtained in a single experiment, in a short time period, and at a fairly low cost. However, these methods have also been described with several problems and limitations. The purpose of this study was to test the applicability of two selected high-throughput methods, cDNA and tissue microarrays (TMA), in cancer research. Two common human malignancies, breast and colorectal cancer, were used as examples. This thesis aims to present some practical considerations that need to be addressed when applying these techniques. cDNA microarrays were applied to screen aberrant gene expression in breast and colon cancers. Immunohistochemistry was used to validate the results and to evaluate the association of selected novel tumour markers with the outcome of the patients. The type of histological material used in immunohistochemistry was evaluated especially considering the applicability of whole tissue sections and different types of TMAs. Special attention was put on the methodological details in the cDNA microarray and TMA experiments. In conclusion, many potential tumour markers were identified in the cDNA microarray analyses. Immunohistochemistry could be applied to validate the observed gene expression changes of selected markers and to associate their expression change with patient outcome. In the current experiments, both TMAs and whole tissue sections could be used for this purpose. This study showed for the first time that securin and p120 catenin protein expression predict breast cancer outcome and the immunopositivity of carbonic anhydrase IX associates with the outcome of rectal cancer. The predictive value of these proteins was statistically evident also in multivariate analyses with up to a 13.1- fold risk for cancer specific death in a specific subgroup of patients.

The notion of process in nonstandard theory and in Whiteheadian metaphysics

In this article I intend to show that certain aspects of A.N. Whitehead's philosophy of organism and especially his epochal theory of time, as mainly exposed in his well-known work Process and Reality, can serve in clarify the underlying assumptions that shape nonstandard mathematical theories as such and also as metatheories of quantum mechanics. Concerning the latter issue, I point to an already significant research on nonstandard versions of quantum mechanics; two of these approaches are chosen to be critically presented in relation to the scope of this work. The main point of the paper is that, insofar as we can refer a nonstandard mathematical entity to a kind of axiomatical formalization essentially 'codifying' an underlying mental process indescribable as such by analytic means, we can possibly apply certain principles of Whitehead's metaphysical scheme focused on the key notion of process which is generally conceived as the becoming of actual entities. This is done in the sense of a unifying approach to provide an interpretation of nonstandard mathematical theories as such and also, in their metatheoretical status, as a formalization of the empirical-experimental context of quantum mechanics.

Evaluation of the surface erosion from different timber yarding methods in Honduras

Surface runoff and sediment production from different timber yarding practices, some using Best Management Practices (BMPs) recommended for Honduras, were monitored in experimental plots during the rainy seasons of two consecutive years in pine forest highlands of central Honduras. Different timber yarding systems were applied to pseudo-replicated plots during the rainy seasons of 1999 and 2000. In 1999, two treatments were studied: tractor yarding and skyline cable (a recommended BMP). In 2000, four treatments were evaluated: tractor skidding, skyline cable, animal skidding (another recommended BMP), and undisturbed forest (reference). During the rainy seasons of these years, surface runoff volumes and sediment yield were measured at five 1.5m x 10m erosion plots in each treated area. The results showed significant differences between traditional tractor yarding and the recommended skyline cable and animal skidding methods. Tractor yarding produced six to ten times more erosion during the rainy seasons than cable and animal yarding. The improved soil retention of cable and animal yarding was especially important during September when the highest rainfall occurred in this climate.

Novel force control methods in a teleoperation system of a hydraulic slider

The objective of the this research project is to develop a novel force control scheme for the teleoperation of a hydraulically driven manipulator, and to implement an ideal transparent mapping between human and machine interaction, and machine and task environment interaction. This master‘s thesis provides a preparatory study for the present research project. The research is limited into a single degree of freedom hydraulic slider with 6-DOF Phantom haptic device. The key contribution of the thesis is to set up the experimental rig including electromechanical haptic device, hydraulic servo and 6-DOF force sensor. The slider is firstly tested as a position servo by using previously developed intelligent switching control algorithm. Subsequently the teleoperated system is set up and the preliminary experiments are carried out. In addition to development of the single DOF experimental set up, methods such as passivity control in teleoperation are reviewed. The thesis also contains review of modeling of the servo slider in particular reference to the servo valve. Markov Chain Monte Carlo method is utilized in developing the robustness of the model in presence of noise.

Geostatistics and remote sensing methods in the classification of images of areas cultivated with citrus

This study compares the precision of three image classification methods, two of remote sensing and one of geostatistics applied to areas cultivated with citrus. The 5,296.52ha area of study is located in the city of Araraquara - central region of the state of São Paulo (SP), Brazil. The multispectral image from the CCD/CBERS-2B satellite was acquired in 2009 and processed through the Geographic Information System (GIS) SPRING. Three classification methods were used, one unsupervised (Cluster), and two supervised (Indicator Kriging/IK and Maximum Likelihood/Maxver), in addition to the screen classification taken as field checking.. Reliability of classifications was evaluated by Kappa index. In accordance with the Kappa index, the Indicator kriging method obtained the highest degree of reliability for bands 2 and 4. Moreover the Cluster method applied to band 2 (green) was the best quality classification between all the methods. Indicator Kriging was the classifier that presented the citrus total area closest to the field check estimated by -3.01%, whereas Maxver overestimated the total citrus area by 42.94%.

Simulation methods in the modelling of bioaffinity assays

Computational model-based simulation methods were developed for the modelling of bioaffinity assays. Bioaffinity-based methods are widely used to quantify a biological substance in biological research, development and in routine clinical in vitro diagnostics. Bioaffinity assays are based on the high affinity and structural specificity between the binding biomolecules. The simulation methods developed are based on the mechanistic assay model, which relies on the chemical reaction kinetics and describes the forming of a bound component as a function of time from the initial binding interaction. The simulation methods were focused on studying the behaviour and the reliability of bioaffinity assay and the possibilities the modelling methods of binding reaction kinetics provide, such as predicting assay results even before the binding reaction has reached equilibrium. For example, a rapid quantitative result from a clinical bioaffinity assay sample can be very significant, e.g. even the smallest elevation of a heart muscle marker reveals a cardiac injury. The simulation methods were used to identify critical error factors in rapid bioaffinity assays. A new kinetic calibration method was developed to calibrate a measurement system by kinetic measurement data utilizing only one standard concentration. A nodebased method was developed to model multi-component binding reactions, which have been a challenge to traditional numerical methods. The node-method was also used to model protein adsorption as an example of nonspecific binding of biomolecules. These methods have been compared with the experimental data from practice and can be utilized in in vitro diagnostics, drug discovery and in medical imaging.

Magnetic Resocance Imaging Methods in the Follow-up of Multiple Sclerosis and in Farby Disease

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a chronic immune-mediated inflammatory disorder of the central nervous system. MS is the most common disabling central nervous system (CNS) disease of young adults in the Western world. In Finland, the prevalence of MS ranges between 1/1000 and 2/1000 in different areas. Fabry disease (FD) is a rare hereditary metabolic disease due to mutation in a single gene coding α-galactosidase A (alpha-gal A) enzyme. It leads to multi-organ pathology, including cerebrovascular disease. Currently there are 44 patients with diagnosed FD in Finland. Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is commonly used in the diagnostics and follow-up of these diseases. The disease activity can be demonstrated by occurrence of new or Gadolinium (Gd)-enhancing lesions in routine studies. Diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI) and diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) are advanced MR sequences which can reveal pathologies in brain regions which appear normal on conventional MR images in several CNS diseases. The main focus in this study was to reveal whether whole brain apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) analysis can be used to demonstrate MS disease activity. MS patients were investigated before and after delivery and before and after initiation of diseasemodifying treatment (DMT). In FD, DTI was used to reveal possible microstructural alterations at early timepoints when excessive signs of cerebrovascular disease are not yet visible in conventional MR sequences. Our clinical and MRI findings at 1.5T indicated that post-partum activation of the disease is an early and common phenomenon amongst mothers with MS. MRI seems to be a more sensitive method for assessing MS disease activity than the recording of relapses. However, whole brain ADC histogram analysis is of limited value in the follow-up of inflammatory conditions in a pregnancy-related setting because the pregnancy-related physiological effects on ADC overwhelm the alterations in ADC associated with MS pathology in brain tissue areas which appear normal on conventional MRI sequences. DTI reveals signs of microstructural damage in brain white matter of FD patients before excessive white matter lesion load can be observed on conventional MR scans. DTI could offer a valuable tool for monitoring the possible effects of enzyme replacement therapy in FD.

Multidata inverse problems and Bayesian solution methods in astronomy

Statistical analyses of measurements that can be described by statistical models are of essence in astronomy and in scientific inquiry in general. The sensitivity of such analyses, modelling approaches, and the consequent predictions, is sometimes highly dependent on the exact techniques applied, and improvements therein can result in significantly better understanding of the observed system of interest. Particularly, optimising the sensitivity of statistical techniques in detecting the faint signatures of low-mass planets orbiting the nearby stars is, together with improvements in instrumentation, essential in estimating the properties of the population of such planets, and in the race to detect Earth-analogs, i.e. planets that could support liquid water and, perhaps, life on their surfaces. We review the developments in Bayesian statistical techniques applicable to detections planets orbiting nearby stars and astronomical data analysis problems in general. We also discuss these techniques and demonstrate their usefulness by using various examples and detailed descriptions of the respective mathematics involved. We demonstrate the practical aspects of Bayesian statistical techniques by describing several algorithms and numerical techniques, as well as theoretical constructions, in the estimation of model parameters and in hypothesis testing. We also apply these algorithms to Doppler measurements of nearby stars to show how they can be used in practice to obtain as much information from the noisy data as possible. Bayesian statistical techniques are powerful tools in analysing and interpreting noisy data and should be preferred in practice whenever computational limitations are not too restrictive.

Stochastic approximation methods in stochastic optimization

Stochastic approximation methods for stochastic optimization are considered. Reviewed the main methods of stochastic approximation: stochastic quasi-gradient algorithm, Kiefer-Wolfowitz algorithm and adaptive rules for them, simultaneous perturbation stochastic approximation (SPSA) algorithm. Suggested the model and the solution of the retailer's profit optimization problem and considered an application of the SQG-algorithm for the optimization problems with objective functions given in the form of ordinary differential equation.

Demand forecasting process design and methods in medium sized enterprise

The purpose of this thesis was to study the design of demand forecasting processes and management of demand. In literature review were different processes found and forecasting methods and techniques interviewed. Also role of bullwhip effect in supply chain was identified and how to manage it with information sharing operations. In the empirical part of study is at first described current situation and challenges in case company. After that will new way to handle demand introduced with target budget creation and how information sharing with 5 products and a few customers would bring benefits to company. Also the new S&OP process created within this study and organization for it.