Spatio-temporal Bayesian network models with latent variables for revealing trophic dynamics and functional networks in fisheries ecology

Ecosystems consist of complex dynamic interactions among species and the environment, the understanding of which has implications for predicting the environmental response to changes in climate and biodiversity. However, with the recent adoption of more explorative tools, like Bayesian networks, in predictive ecology, few assumptions can be made about the data and complex, spatially varying interactions can be recovered from collected field data. In this study, we compare Bayesian network modelling approaches accounting for latent effects to reveal species dynamics for 7 geographically and temporally varied areas within the North Sea. We also apply structure learning techniques to identify functional relationships such as prey–predator between trophic groups of species that vary across space and time. We examine if the use of a general hidden variable can reflect overall changes in the trophic dynamics of each spatial system and whether the inclusion of a specific hidden variable can model unmeasured group of species. The general hidden variable appears to capture changes in the variance of different groups of species biomass. Models that include both general and specific hidden variables resulted in identifying similarity with the underlying food web dynamics and modelling spatial unmeasured effect. We predict the biomass of the trophic groups and find that predictive accuracy varies with the models' features and across the different spatial areas thus proposing a model that allows for spatial autocorrelation and two hidden variables. Our proposed model was able to produce novel insights on this ecosystem's dynamics and ecological interactions mainly because we account for the heterogeneous nature of the driving factors within each area and their changes over time. Our findings demonstrate that accounting for additional sources of variation, by combining structure learning from data and experts' knowledge in the model architecture, has the potential for gaining deeper insights into the structure and stability of ecosystems. Finally, we were able to discover meaningful functional networks that were spatially and temporally differentiated with the particular mechanisms varying from trophic associations through interactions with climate and commercial fisheries.

Are they adicctied to college students social networks?

The development of the Internet and in particular of social networks has supposedly given a new view to the different aspects that surround human behavior. It includes those associated with addictions, but specifically the ones that have to do with technologies. Following a correlational descriptive design we present the results of a study, which involved university students from Social and Legal Sciences as participants, about their addiction to the Internet and in particular to social networks. The sample was conformed of 373 participants from the cities of Granada, Sevilla, Málaga, and Córdoba. To gather the data a questionnaire that was design by Young was translated to Spanish. The main research objective was to determine if university students could be considered social network addicts. The most prominent result was that the participants don’t consider themselves to be addicted to the Internet or to social networks; in particular women reflected a major distance from the social networks. It’s important to know that the results differ from those found in the literature review, which opens the question, are the participants in a phase of denial towards the addiction?

Short, medium and long term load forecasting model and virtual load forecaster based on radial basis neural networks

Artificial neural networks (ANNs) can be easily applied to short-term load forecasting (STLF) models for electric power distribution applications. However, they are not typically used in medium and long term load forecasting (MLTLF) electric power models because of the difficulties associated with collecting and processing the necessary data. Virtual instrument (VI) techniques can be applied to electric power load forecasting but this is rarely reported in the literature. In this paper, we investigate the modelling and design of a VI for short, medium and long term load forecasting using ANNs. Three ANN models were built for STLF of electric power. These networks were trained using historical load data and also considering weather data which is known to have a significant affect of the use of electric power (such as wind speed, precipitation, atmospheric pressure, temperature and humidity). In order to do this a V-shape temperature processing model is proposed. With regards MLTLF, a model was developed using radial basis function neural networks (RBFNN). Results indicate that the forecasting model based on the RBFNN has a high accuracy and stability. Finally, a virtual load forecaster which integrates the VI and the RBFNN is presented.

Monitoring of Corrosion in Structural Reinforcing Bars: performance comparison using in-situ fibre optic and electric wire strain gauge systems

Abstract This work addresses the problems of effective in situ measurement of the initiation or the rate of steel corrosion in reinforced concrete structures through the use of optical fiber sensor systems. By undertaking a series of tests over prolonged periods, coupled with acceleration of corrosion, the performance of fiber Bragg grating-based sensor systems attached to high-tensile steel reinforcement bars (ldquorebarsrdquo), and cast into concrete blocks was determined, and the results compared with those from conventional strain gauges where appropriate. The results show the benefits in the use of optical fiber networks under these circumstances and their ability to deliver data when conventional sensors failed.

Electric vehicles and displaced gaseous emission

Electric vehicles (EV) do not emit tailpipe exhaust fumes in the same manner as internal combustion engine vehicles. Optimal benefits can only be achieved, if EVS are deployed effectively, so that the tailpipe emissions are not substituted by additional emissions in the electricity sector. This paper examines the potential contributions that Plug in Hybrid Electric Vehicles can make in reducing carbon dioxide. The paper presents the results of the generation expansion model for Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland built using the dynamic programming based long term generation expansion planning tool called the Wien Automatic System Planning IV tool. The model optimizes power dispatch using hourly electricity demand curves for each year up to 2020, while incorporating generator characteristics and certain operational requirements such as energy not served and loss of load probability while satisfying constraints on environmental emissions, fuel availability and generator operational and maintenance costs. In order to simulate the effect of PHEV, two distinct charging scenarios are applied based on a peak tariff and an off peak tariff. The importance and influence of the charging regime on the amount of energy used and gaseous emissions displaced is determined and discussed.

Accessibility and Health: Towards Walkability Tools for Planning Practice

There is increasing research interest in how we can most effectively intervene in the built environment to change behaviours such as physical activity and improve health. Much of this work has focussed around the concept of walkability and the identification of those attributes of our cities that encourage pedestrian activity, including density, connectivity and the aesthetic of the urban realm (Saelens et al 2003, Frank et al 2010). Much of the existing research has clarified the strength of the relationships between various environmental attributes and the differential impact on different demographic groups (e.g. Panter et al 2011). This has not yet been effectively translated into tools to help integrate the concepts of walkability into decision-making by statutory authorities that can help shape the spatial development and delivery of public services which can support more active lifestyles. A key reason for this has been that standard models for transport planning and accessibility are based on networks of road infrastructure, which provides a weak basis for modelling pedestrian accessibility (Chin et al 2008).

This paper reports the findings of Knowledge Exchange project funded by UK’s Economic and Social Research Council (ES/J010588/1) and partners including Belfast and Derry City Councils and Northern Ireland’s Public Health Agency, the Department of Regional Development and Belfast Healthy Cities, that has attempted to address this problem. This project has mapped city-wide footpath networks and used these to assist partner organisations in developing the evidence base for making decisions on public services based on health impacts and pedestrian access. The paper describes the tool developed, uses a number of examples to highlight its impact on areas of decision-making and evaluates the benefits of further integrating walkability into planning and development practice.

Development of a Bridge Weigh-in-Motion Sensor: Performance comparison using fibre optic and electric resistance strain sensor systems

This paper addresses the problems of effective in situ measurement of the real-time strain for bridge weigh in motion in reinforced concrete bridge structures through the use of optical fiber sensor systems. By undertaking a series of tests, coupled with dynamic loading, the performance of fiber Bragg grating-based sensor systems with various amplification techniques were investigated. In recent years, structural health monitoring (SHM) systems have been developed to monitor bridge deterioration, to assess load levels and hence extend bridge life and safety. Conventional SHM systems, based on measuring strain, can be used to improve knowledge of the bridge's capacity to resist loads but generally give no information on the causes of any increase in stresses. Therefore, it is necessary to find accurate sensors capable of capturing peak strains under dynamic load and suitable methods for attaching these strain sensors to existing and new bridge structures. Additionally, it is important to ensure accurate strain transfer between concrete and steel, adhesives layer, and strain sensor. The results show the benefits in the use of optical fiber networks under these circumstances and their ability to deliver data when conventional sensors cannot capture accurate strains and/or peak strains.

Connectivity and Physical Activity: Using Footpath Networks to Measure the Walkability of Built Environments

There is now a strong body of research that suggests that the form of the built environment can influence levels of physical activity, leading to an increasing interest in incorporating health objectives into spatial planning and regeneration policies and projects. There have been a number of strands to this research, one of which has sought to develop “objective” measurements of the built environment using Geographic Information Science (GIS) involving measures of connectivity and proximity to compare the relative “walkability” of different neighbourhoods. The development of the “walkability index” (e.g. Leslie et al 2007, Frank et al 2010) has become a popular indicator of spatial distribution of those features of the built environment that are considered to have the greatest positive influence on levels of physical activity. The success of this measure is built on its ability to succinctly capture built environment correlates of physical activity using routinely available spatial data, which includes using road centre lines as a basis of a proxy for connectivity.

This paper discusses two key aspects of the walkability index. First, it follows the suggestion of Chin et al (2008) that the use of a footpath network (where available), rather than road centre lines, may be far more effective in evaluating walkability. This may be particularly important for assessing changes in walkability arising from pedestrian-focused infrastructure projects, such as greenways. Second, the paper explores the implication of this for how connectivity can be measured. The paper takes six different measures of connectivity and first analyses the relationships between them and then tests their correlation with actual levels of physical activity of local residents in Belfast, Northern Ireland. The analysis finds that the best measurements appear to be intersection density and metric reach and uses this finding to discuss the implications of this for developing tools that may better support decision-making in spatial planning.

Electric vehicles and opportunities to displace tailgate emissions using Smart Charging controls

Under the European Union Renewable Energy Directive each Member State is mandated to ensure that 10% of transport energy (excluding aviation and marine transport) comes from renewable sources by 2020. The Irish Government intends to achieve this target with a number of policies including ensuring that 10% of all vehicles in the transport fleet are powered by electricity by 2020. This paper investigates the impact of the 10% electric vehicle target in Ireland in 2020 using a dynamic programming based long term generation expansion planning model. The model developed optimizes power dispatch using hourly electricity demand curves up to 2020, while incorporating generator characteristics and certain operational requirements such as energy not served and loss of load probability while satisfying constraints on environmental emissions, fuel availability and generator operational and maintenance costs. Two distinct scenarios are analysed based on a peak and off-peak charging regimes in order to simulate the effects of the electric vehicles charging in 2020. The importance and influence of the charging regimes on the amount of energy used and tailgate emissions displaced is then determined.

Electric vehicle capacity forecasting model with application to load levelling

There are many uncertainties in forecasting the charging and discharging capacity required by electric vehicles (EVs) often as a consequence of stochastic usage and intermittent travel. In terms of large-scale EV integration in future power networks this paper develops a capacity forecasting model which considers eight particular uncertainties in three categories. Using the model, a typical application of EVs to load levelling is presented and exemplified using a UK 2020 case study. The results presented in this paper demonstrate that the proposed model is accurate for charge and discharge prediction and a feasible basis for steady-state analysis required for large-scale EV integration.

A new self-learning TLBO algorithm for RBF neural modelling of batteries in electric vehicles

One of the main purposes of building a battery model is for monitoring and control during battery charging/discharging as well as for estimating key factors of batteries such as the state of charge for electric vehicles. However, the model based on the electrochemical reactions within the batteries is highly complex and difficult to compute using conventional approaches. Radial basis function (RBF) neural networks have been widely used to model complex systems for estimation and control purpose, while the optimization of both the linear and non-linear parameters in the RBF model remains a key issue. A recently proposed meta-heuristic algorithm named Teaching-Learning-Based Optimization (TLBO) is free of presetting algorithm parameters and performs well in non-linear optimization. In this paper, a novel self-learning TLBO based RBF model is proposed for modelling electric vehicle batteries using RBF neural networks. The modelling approach has been applied to two battery testing data sets and compared with some other RBF based battery models, the training and validation results confirm the efficacy of the proposed method.

Non-parametric bill of quantities estimation of concrete road bridges' superstructure: an artificial neural networks approach

Bridge construction responds to the need for environmentally friendly design of motorways and facilitates the passage through sensitive natural areas and the bypassing of urban areas. However, according to numerous research studies, bridge construction presents substantial budget overruns. Therefore, it is necessary early in the planning process for the decision makers to have reliable estimates of the final cost based on previously constructed projects. At the same time, the current European financial crisis reduces the available capital for investments and financial institutions are even less willing to finance transportation infrastructure. Consequently, it is even more necessary today to estimate the budget of high-cost construction projects -such as road bridges- with reasonable accuracy, in order for the state funds to be invested with lower risk and the projects to be designed with the highest possible efficiency. In this paper, a Bill-of-Quantities (BoQ) estimation tool for road bridges is developed in order to support the decisions made at the preliminary planning and design stages of highways. Specifically, a Feed-Forward Artificial Neural Network (ANN) with a hidden layer of 10 neurons is trained to predict the superstructure material quantities (concrete, pre-stressed steel and reinforcing steel) using the width of the deck, the adjusted length of span or cantilever and the type of the bridge as input variables. The training dataset includes actual data from 68 recently constructed concrete motorway bridges in Greece. According to the relevant metrics, the developed model captures very well the complex interrelations in the dataset and demonstrates strong generalisation capability. Furthermore, it outperforms the linear regression models developed for the same dataset. Therefore, the proposed cost estimation model stands as a useful and reliable tool for the construction industry as it enables planners to reach informed decisions for technical and economic planning of concrete bridge projects from their early implementation stages.

Decentralizing IP mobility management in future networks

The massive adoption of sophisticated mobile devices and applications led to the increase of mobile data in the last decade, which it is expected to continue. This increase of mobile data negatively impacts the network planning and dimension, since core networks are heavy centralized. Mobile operators are investigating atten network architectures that distribute the responsibility of providing connectivity and mobility, in order to improve the network scalability and performance. Moreover, service providers are moving the content servers closer to the user, in order to ensure high availability and performance of content delivery. Besides the e orts to overcome the explosion of mobile data, current mobility management models are heavy centralized to ensure reachability and session continuity to the users connected to the network. Nowadays, deployed architectures have a small number of centralized mobility anchors managing the mobile data and the mobility context of millions of users, which introduces issues related to performance and scalability that require costly network mechanisms. The mobility management needs to be rethought out-of-the box to cope with atten network architectures and distributed content servers closer to the user, which is the purpose of the work developed in this Thesis. The Thesis starts with a characterization of mobility management into well-de ned functional blocks, their interaction and potential grouping. The decentralized mobility management is studied through analytical models and simulations, in which di erent mobility approaches distinctly distribute the mobility management functionalities through the network. The outcome of this study showed that decentralized mobility management brings advantages. Hence, it was proposed a novel distributed and dynamic mobility management approach, which is exhaustively evaluated through analytical models, simulations and testbed experiments. The proposed approach is also integrated with seamless horizontal handover mechanisms, as well as evaluated in vehicular environments. The mobility mechanisms are also speci ed for multihomed scenarios, in order to provide data o oading with IP mobility from cellular to other access networks. In the pursuing of the optimized mobile routing path, a novel network-based strategy for localized mobility is addressed, in which a replication binding system is deployed in the mobility anchors distributed through the access routers and gateways. Finally, we go further in the mobility anchoring subject, presenting a context-aware adaptive IP mobility anchoring model that dynamically assigns the mobility anchors that provide the optimized routing path to a session, based on the user and network context. The integration of dynamic and distributed concepts in the mobility management, such as context-aware adaptive mobility anchoring and dynamic mobility support, allow the optimization of network resources and the improvement of user experience. The overall outcome demonstrates that decentralized mobility management is a promising direction, hence, its ideas should be taken into account by mobile operators in the deployment of future networks.

Data storage system for wireless sensor networks

Dissertação de mestrado, Engenharia Informática, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia, Universidade do Algarve, 2015