Duracion de la vida: capitulos seleccionados del libro de Dublin, Lotka y Spiegelman Length of Life"

Incluye Bibliografía

Análise das tragédias de Janeiro de 2011, no bairro jardim Zaíra, município de Mauá/SP: uma análise episódica

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Distribuição ecológica e estrutura populacional em escala espacial, temporal e anual do camarão-branco Litopenaeus schmitti (Burkenroad, 1936) (Dendrobranchiata: Penaeidae) na enseada de Ubatuba: 4 anos de estudo

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

From west to east: Environmental influences on the rate and pathways of Polynesian colonization

The prime movers behind the prehistoric colonization of Remote Oceania, and in particular the large c. 2000-year temporal gap (i.e. long pause') seen between West and East Polynesia, has long been major point of interest in the Pacific. To address these events and the processes that may have led to the known chronological disparity of these diasporas, we present results from two different, but equally powerful, analytical tools which are used to examine Polynesian seafaring capabilities and trajectories. The first is a statistical model known as Seascape, which simulates voyages, while the second uses ease of eastward travel estimates based on land distribution and wind pattern analysis. These analyses were done with the goal of determining the potential role of environmental factors in the colonization process, particularly as they relate to the long pause. We show that the eastern boundary of West Polynesia, the limit of the initial colonization pulse, is marked by a discontinuity in land distribution, where the distances travelers would have to cross in order to reach islands further to the east become significantly larger. At the same time, in West Polynesia, the frequency and intensity of winds favorable to eastward displacement decrease continuously from west to east. As far as winds are concerned, eastward travel in West Polynesia is favored in the northern and southern areas and much more difficult across the central portion. Favorable winds have a clear seasonality, and eastward displacement along the northern area is much easier under El Nino conditions. Voyaging simulations show that intentional eastward voyages departing from Tonga and Samoa, when undertaken with vessels capable of sailing efficiently against the wind, afford a viable route toward several island groups in East Polynesia, with trips starting in Samoa having a higher probability of success.

Temporal and spatial distribution of the commercial shrimp Litopenaeus schmitti (Dendrobranchiata: Penaeidae) in the south-eastern Brazilian coast

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Re-analysis of pluvial precipitation in southern Brazil

This study examined precipitation in southern Brazil based on a data set provided by the Brazilian National Water Agency, covering the period from 1976 to 2010. Data were homogenized using the R software and the Climatol subroutine, which allow completing missing data. Isohyets were drawn using the Geostatistics software to obtain a semivariogram for each analysis. There was a remarkable interannual variability in this region, with positive anomalies in the warm phase (El Nino) and negative anomalies in the cold phase (La Nina) of ENSO. Also, the responses of this variability were not uniform in the entire region, since there was variability from year to year and from event to event.

Paleoclimate Reconstruction Along The Pole-Equator-Pole Transect of the Americas (PEP 1)

Examples are presented of inter-hemispheric comparison of instrumental climate and paleoclimate proxy records from the Americas for different temporal scales. Despite a certain symmetry of seasonal precipitation patterns along the PEP 1 transect, decadal variability of winter precipitation shows different characteristics in terms of amplitude and frequency in both the last 100 and last 1000 years. Such differences in variability are also seen in a comparison of time series of different El Nino/Southern Oscillation proxy records from North and South America, however, these differences do not appear to affect the spatial correlation with Pacific sea surface temperature patterns. Local and regional differences in response to climate change are even more pronounced for records with lower temporal resolution, and inter-hemispheric synchroneity may or may not be indicative of the same forcing. This aspect is illustrated in an inter-hemispheric comparison of the last 1000 years of glacier variability, and of the full- and late-glacial lake level history.

High Resolution Paleoceanography of the Guaymas Basin, Gulf of California, During the Past 15 000 Years

Deep Sea Drilling Project Site 480 (27°54.10’N, 111°39.34’W; 655 m water depth) contains a high resolution record of paleoceanographic change of the past 15 000 years for the Guaymas Basin, a region of very high diatom productivity within the central Gulf of California. Analyses of diatoms and silicoflagellates were completed on samples spaced every 40-50 yr, whereas ICP-AES geochemical analyses were completed on alternate samples (sample spacing 80-100 yr). The Bolling-Allerod interval (14.6-12.9 ka) (note, ka refers to 1000 calendar years BP throughout this report) is characterized by an increase in biogenic silica and a decline in calcium carbonate relative to surrounding intervals, suggesting conditions somewhat similar to those of today. The Younger Dryas event (12.9-11.6 ka) is marked by a major drop in biogenic silica and an increase in calcium carbonate. Increasing relative percentage contributions of Azpeitia nodulifera and Dictyocha perlaevis (a tropical diatom and silicoflagellate, respectively) and reduced numbers of the silicoflagellate Octactis pulchra are supportive of reduced upwelling of nutrient-rich waters. Between 10.6 and 10.0 ka, calcium carbonate and A. nodulifera abruptly decline at DSDP 480, while Roperia tesselata, a diatom indicative of winter upwelling in the modern-day Gulf, increases sharply in numbers. A nearly coincident increase in the silicoflagellate Dictyocha stapedia suggests that waters above DSDP 480 were more similar to the cooler and slightly more saline waters of the northern Gulf during much of the early and middle parts of the Holocene (~10 to 3.2 ka). At about 6.2 ka a stepwise increase in biogenic silica and the reappearance of the tropical diatom A. nodulifera marks a major change in oceanographic conditions in the Gulf. A winter shift to more northwesterly winds may have occurred at this time along with the onset of periodic northward excursions (El Nino-driven?) of the North Equatorial Countercurrent during the summer. Beginning between 2.8 and 2.4 ka, the amplitude of biogenic silica and wt% Fe, Al, and Ti (proxies of terrigenous input) increase, possibly reflecting intensification of ENSO cycles and the establishment of modern oceanographic conditions in the Gulf. Increased numbers of O. pulchra after 2.8 ka suggest enhanced spring upwelling.

Mid- to late-Holocene paleoceanographic changes on the southeastern Brazilian shelf based on grain size records

; High-resolution grain size analyses of three AMS (14)C-dated cores from the Southeastern Brazilian shelf provide a detailed record of mid- to late-Holocene environmental changes in the Southwestern Atlantic Margin. The cores exhibit millennial variability that we associate with the previously described southward shift of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) average latitudinal position over the South American continent during the Holocene climatic maximum. This generated changes in the wind-driven current system of the SW Atlantic margin and modified the grain size characteristics of the sediments deposited there. Centennial variations in the grain size are associated with a previously described late-Holocene enhancement of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) amplitude, which led to stronger NNE trade winds off eastern Brazil, favouring SW transport of sediments from the Paraiba do Sul River. This is recorded in a core from off Cabo Frio as a coarsening trend from 3000 cal. BP onwards. The ENSO enhancement also caused changes in precipitation and wind pattern in southern Brazil, allowing high discharge events and northward extensions of the low-saline water plume from Rio de la Plata. We propose that this resulted in a net increase in northward alongshore transport of fine sediments, seen as a prominent fine-shift at 2000 cal. BP in a core from similar to 24 degrees S on the Brazilian shelf. Wavelet-and spectral analysis of the sortable silt records show a significant similar to 1000-yr periodicity, which we attribute to solar forcing. If correct, this is one of the first indications of solar forcing of this timescale on the Southwestern Atlantic margin.

Reproducibility of South American precipitation due to subtropical South Atlantic SSTs

This work investigates the eproducibility of precipitation simulated with an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) forced by subtropical South Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. This represents an important test of the model prior to investigating the impact of SSTs on regional climate. A five-member ensemble run was performed using the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate Model, version 3 (CCM3). The CCM3 was forced by observed monthly SST over the South Atlantic from 20 to 60 S. The SST dataset used is from the Hadley Centre covering the period of September 1949-October 2001; this covers more than 50 yr of simulation. A statistical technique is used to determine the reproducibility in the CCM3 runs and to assess potential predictability in precipitation. Empirical orthogonal function analysis is used to reconstruct the ensemble using the most reproducible forced modes in order to separate the atmospheric response to local SST forcing from its internal variability. Results for reproducibility show a seasonal dependence, with higher values during austral autumn and spring. The spatial distribution of reproducibility shows that the tropical atmosphere is dominated by the underlying SSTs while variations in the subtropical-extratropical regions are primarily driven by internal variability. As such, changes in the South Atlantic convergence zone (SACZ) region are mainly dominated by internal atmospheric variability while the ITCZ has greater external dependence, making it more predictable. The reproducibility distribution reveals increased values after the reconstruction of the ensemble.

Can Indian Ocean SST anomalies influence South American rainfall?

In this study we examine the impact of Indian Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) variability on South American circulation using observations and a suite of numerical experiments forced by a combination of Indian and Pacific SST anomalies. Previous studies have shown that the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) mode can affect climate over remote regions across the globe, including over South America. Here we show that such a link exists not only with the IOD, but also with the Indian Ocean basin-wide warming (IOBW). The IOBW, a response to El Nino events, tends to reinforce the South American anomalous circulation in March-to-May associated with the warm events in the Pacific. This leads to increased rainfall in the La Plata basin and decreased rainfall over the northern regions of the continent. In addition, the IOBW is suggested to be an important factor for modulating the persistence of dry conditions over northeastern South America during austral autumn. The link between the IOBW and South American climate occurs via alterations of the Walker circulation pattern and through a mid-latitude wave-train teleconnection.

The Southern Ocean and Its Climate in CCSM4

The new Community Climate System Model, version 4 (CCSM4), provides a powerful tool to understand and predict the earth's climate system. Several aspects of the Southern Ocean in the CCSM4 are explored, including the surface climatology and interannual variability, simulation of key climate water masses (Antarctic Bottom Water, Subantarctic Mode Water, and Antarctic Intermediate Water), the transport and structure of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, and interbasin exchange via the Agulhas and Tasman leakages and at the Brazil-Malvinas Confluence. It is found that the CCSM4 has varying degrees of accuracy in the simulation of the climate of the Southern Ocean when compared with observations. This study has identified aspects of the model that warrant further analysis that will result in a more comprehensive understanding of ocean-atmosphere-ice dynamics and interactions that control the earth's climate and its variability.

Interannual variation in commercial oyster (Crassostrea gigas) farming in the sea (Florianopolis, Brazil, 27 degrees 44 ' S; 48 degrees 33 ' W) in relation to temperature, chlorophyll a and associated oceanographic conditions

Aquaculture of filter-feeding bivalve mollusks involves the fruitful conversion of marine particulate organic matter into premium protein of high nutritive value. Culture performance of bivalves is largely dependent on hydrological conditions and directly affected by e. g. temperature and chlorophyll levels. Accordingly, these parameters may be related with seasonality but also with oceanographic features combined with climate events. Yields of Pacific cupped oyster (Crassostrea gigas) reared at commercial procedures in suspended structures (long-lines) in a sheltered bay in Southern Brazil (Santa Catarina State, 27S 43'; 48 W 30') were evaluated in relation to local environmental conditions: sea surface temperature, chlorophyll a concentration, and associate effects of cold fronts events and El Nino and La Nina periods. Outputs from four consecutive commercial crop years were analyzed (2005/06, 2006/07, 2007/08, 2008/09) in terms of oyster survival and development time during the following grow-out phases of the culture cycle: seed to juvenile, juvenile to adult, adult to marketable. Since culture management and genetics were standardized significant differences verified among crop performance could be mostly related to environmental effects. Time series of temperature and chlorophyll a (remote sensing data) from crop periods displayed significant seasonal and interannual variation. As expected, performance during initial grow-out stages (seed to juvenile) was critical for final crop yield. Temperature was the main factor affecting survival in these initial stages with a trend of negative correlation, though not statistically significant. On the other hand, oyster development rate was significantly and positively affected by chlorophyll a concentration. Chlorophyll a values could be increased by upwelled cold nutrient-rich South Atlantic Central Water (SACW, related to predominant Northern winds) though further dependent on occurrence of Southern winds (cold fronts) to assist seawater penetration into the sheltered farming area. Lower salinity nutrient-rich northward drifted waters from La Plata River discharge may also result in chlorophyll a rise in the farming area. The El Nino period (July 2006 to February 2007) coincided with lower chlorophyll a levels in the farming site that may be related to both decreased number of cold fronts as well as predominance of Northern winds that retain northward spreading of La Plata River discharge waters. In contrast, the La Nina period (August 2007 to June 2008) corresponded to higher chlorophyll a values in the farming area by both upwelling of SACW and penetration of La Plata River discharge water assisted by increased occurrence of Southern winds and cold fronts. The recognition of the potentially changing climate and effects upon the environment will be an important step in planning future development of bivalve aquaculture.

Solar-Terrestrial Signal Record in Tree Ring Width Time Series from Brazil

This work investigates the behavior of the sunspot number and Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) signal recorded in the tree ring time series for three different locations in Brazil: Humaita in Amaznia State, Porto Ferreira in So Paulo State, and Passo Fundo in Rio Grande do Sul State, using wavelet and cross-wavelet analysis techniques. The wavelet spectra of tree ring time series showed signs of 11 and 22 years, possibly related to the solar activity, and periods of 2-8 years, possibly related to El Nio events. The cross-wavelet spectra for all tree ring time series from Brazil present a significant response to the 11-year solar cycle in the time interval between 1921 to after 1981. These tree ring time series still have a response to the second harmonic of the solar cycle (5.5 years), but in different time intervals. The cross-wavelet maps also showed that the relationship between the SOI x tree ring time series is more intense, for oscillation in the range of 4-8 years.

Variability of rainfall and temperature (1912-2008) parameters measured from Santa Maria (29 degrees 41 ' S, 53 degrees 48 ' W) and their connections with ENSO and solar activity

In this work, we analyze the long term variability of rainfall and temperature (1912-2008) of Santa Maria (29 degrees S, 53 degrees W) and its possible connection with natural influences such as solar activity and ENSO. Temperature and rainfall present similar frequencies as revealed by spectral analyses. This analysis shows a large number of short periods between 2-8 years and periods of 11.8-12.3, 19.1-21.0, and 64.3-82.5 years. The cross correlation for rainfall and temperature versus Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) have higher cross-power around 2-8 yr. Rainfall and temperature versus sunspot number (Rz) showed higher cross-power around the 11-yr solar cycle period. A high and continuous cross correlation was observed for Rz-22 yr versus rainfall and temperature. Furthermore, the power between 22-yr solar cycle and meteorological parameters was higher than that obtained with the 11-yr solar cycle, suggesting that the effect of Hale cycle on climate may be stronger than the Schwabe cycle effect. These results indicate that the variability of rainfall and temperature is closely related to the variation of the Southern Oscillation Index and solar activity, and that the El Nino Southern Oscillation and solar activity probably play an important role in the climate system over Southern Brazil. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.