Assessing the ex ante economic impacts of transportation infrastructure policies in Brazil

This paper uses a fully operational inter-regional computable general equilibrium (CGE) model implemented for the Brazilian economy, based on previous work by Haddad and Hewings, in order to assess the likely economic effects of road transportation policy changes in Brazil. Among the features embedded in this framework, modelling of external scale economies and transportation costs provides an innovative way of dealing explicitly with theoretical issues related to integrated regional systems. The model is calibrated for 109 regions. The explicit modelling of transportation costs built into the inter-regional CGE model, based on origin-destination flows, which takes into account the spatial structure of the Brazilian economy, creates the capability of integrating the inter-regional CGE model with a geo-coded transportation network model enhancing the potential of the framework in understanding the role of infrastructure on regional development. The transportation model used is the so-called Highway Development and Management, developed by the World Bank, implemented using the software TransCAD. Further extensions of the current model specification for integrating other features of transport planning in a continental industrialising country like Brazil are discussed, with the goal of building a bridge between conventional transport planning practices and the innovative use of CGE models. In order to illustrate the analytical power of the integrated system, the authors present a set of simulations, which evaluate the ex ante economic impacts of physical/qualitative changes in the Brazilian road network (for example, a highway improvement), in accordance with recent policy developments in Brazil. Rather than providing a critical evaluation of this debate, they intend to emphasise the likely structural impacts of such policies. They expect that the results will reinforce the need to better specifying spatial interactions in inter-regional CGE models.

Mental health and socio-economic variations in Australian suicide

This paper investigates the relationship between suicide rates and prevalence of mental disorder and suicide attempts, across socio-economic status (SES) groups based on area of residence. Australian suicide data (1996-1998) were analysed in conjunction with area-based prevalences of mental disorder derived from the National Survey of Mental Health and Well-Being (1997). Poisson regression models of suicide risk included age, quintile of area-based SES, urban-rural residence, and country of birth (COB), with males and females analysed separately. Analysis focussed on the association between suicide and prevalences of (ICD-10) affective disorders, anxiety disorders, substance use disorders and suicide attempts by SES group. Prevalences of other psychiatric symptomatology, substance use problems, health service utilisation, stressful life-events and personality were also investigated. Significant increasing gradients were evident from high to low SES groups for prevalences of affective disorders, anxiety disorders (females only), and substance use disorders (males only); sub-threshold drug and alcohol problems and depression; and suicide attempts and suicide (males only). Prevalences of mental disorder, other sub-threshold mental health items and suicide attempts were significantly associated with suicide, but in most cases associations were reduced in magnitude and became statistically non-significant after adjustment for COB, urban-rural residence, and SES. For male suicide the relative risk (RR) in the lowest SES group compared to the highest was 1.40 (95% CI 1.29-1.52, p < 0.001) for all ages, and 1.46 (95% CI 1.27-1.67, p < 0.001) for male youth (20-34 years). This relationship was not substantially modified in males when regression models included prevalences of affective disorders, and other selected mental health variables and demographic factors. From a population perspective, SES remained significantly associated with suicide after controlling for the prevalence of mental disorders and other psychiatric symptomatology. Mental conditions and previous suicidal behaviour may play an intermediary role between SES and suicide, but this study suggests that an independent relationship between suicide and SES also exists. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The effect of spatial definition on the allocation of clients to screening clinics

We compared four strategies for inviting 91,456 women aged 50-69 years to one of six clinics for mammography screening and 40,142 men aged 60-79 years to one of 10 clinics for abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) screening. The strategies were invitation to the clinic nearest to the client and invitation to the clinic nearest to the client's area of residence defined by census small area, postcode and local government area. For each strategy we calculated the expected demand at each clinic and the travel distances for clients. We found that when women were allocated to mammography clinics on the basis of the local government area instead of their individual address, expected demand at one clinic increased by 60%, and 19% of clients were invited to attend a more remote clinic, entailing 99,000 km of additional travel. Similar results were obtained for men allocated to AAA clinics by their postcode of residence instead of their individual address: 55% difference in expected demand, 13% to a more remote clinic and 60,000 km of extra travel. Allocation on the basis of small areas did not show such great differences, except for travel distance, which was about 5% higher for each clinic type. We recommend that allocation of clients to screening clinics be made according to residential address, that assessment of the location of clinics be based on distances between residences and nearest clinic, but that planning new locations for clinics be aided with spatial analysis tools using small area demographic and social data. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science Ltd.

COST-EFFECTIVENESS ANALYSIS OF CISPLATIN-BASED CHEMORADIATION TO TREAT PATIENTS WITH UNRESECTABLE, NONMETASTATIC HEAD AND NECK CANCER IN BRAZIL

Background. The purpose of this study was to analyze the cost-effectiveness of cisplatin-based chemoradiation compared to radiation therapy (RT) alone to treat patients with advanced head and neck cancer in Brazil. Methods. Data were collected retrospectively from the medical records of 33 patients treated with RT alone (strategy 1) and from 29 patients treated with cisplatin-based chemoradiation (strategy 2). The Brazilian National Health System (Sistema Unico de Saude [SUS]) reimbursement parameters perspective was considered, and the effectiveness was measured in years of disease-free life gained. One-way sensitivity analysis was performed to determine robustness of this study. Results. In strategy 1, there were 31% of the patients who lived without disease progression for more than 13 months after treatment, compared to 58% of patients in strategy 2. According to SUS parameters, the total cost per patient in strategy 1 was $1167.00 U.S. dollars and in strategy 2, it was $2058.00 U.S. dollars. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was $3303.00 U.S. dollars per life-year gained. Conclusion. Cisplatin-based chemoradiation proved to be more cost-effective than RT alone. (C) 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Head Neck 33: 1199-1205, 2011

Education Level Explains Differences in Stroke Incidence among City Districts in Joinville, Brazil: A Three-Year Population-Based Study

Background: Current evidence suggests an inverse association between socioeconomic status and stroke incidence. Our aim was to measure the variation in incidence among different city districts (CD) and their association with socioeconomic variables. Methods: We prospectively ascertained all possible stroke cases occurring in the city of Joinville during the period 2005-2007. We determined the incidence for each of the 38 CD, age-adjusted to the population of Joinville. By linear regression analysis, we correlated incidence data with mean years of education (MYE) and mean income per month (MIPM). Results: Of the 1,734 stroke cases registered, 1,034 were first-ever strokes. In the study period, the crude incidence in Joinville was 69.5 per 100,000 (95% confidence interval, 65.3-73.9). The stroke incidence among CD ranged from 37.5 (22.2-64.6) to 151.0 per 100,000 (69.0-286.6). The stroke incidence was inversely correlated with years of education (r = -0.532; p<0.001). MYE and MIPM were strongly related (R = 0.958), resulting in exclusion of MIPM by collinearity. Conclusions: Years of education can explain a wide incidence variation among CD. These results may be useful to guide the allocation of resources in primary prevention policies. Copyright (C) 2011 S. Karger AG, Basel

Ecotourism/Wildlife-based tourism as contributor to nature conservation with reference to Vanni, Sri Lanka

After discussing definitions of ecotourism, outlines possible economic and conservational benefits from developing ecotourism or wildlife-based tourism. Identifies possible economic benefits for local communities but also outlines possible economic costs to such communities. Observations are made on the potential of developing ecotourism in the Giant’s Tank/Mannar area. A sufficient market does not always exist for wildlife-based tourism to make it economically viable. Therefore, market analysis should be undertaken before promoting the development of wildlife-based tourism in a locality. A checklist is provided to give some guidance in market appraisal. It is observed that even non-consumptive wildlife-based tourism can have adverse environmental consequences and these are listed. Care is needed to avoid these negative consequences and to ensure that local communities do in fact obtain adequate economic benefits from the development of wildlife-based tourism.

Visitor profiles and environmental attributes, especially of birds, attracting visitors to Lamington National Park: Tourist attitudes and economic issues

Uses a sample of 622 day and overnight visitors to the O’ Reilly’s/Green Mountains site of Lamington National Park, Queensland, Australia, to identify their socio-economic and other pertinent characteristics and the main reasons and attributes that attract them to the site. Particular attention is given to birds and their attributes as attractions. The primary economic injection accruing locally as a result of visits is examined and the difference that the presence of birds makes to local expenditure by visitors is explored. The extent of support for and objection to the introduction of a fee for entering Lamington National Park is estimated. The many suggestions received from visitors for environmental improvements at this site are discussed. It is suggested that unless a way can be found to regulate the number of visitors to this site and obtain extra funds to finance improvements at this site, the magnitude of many of these problems will grow. This will necessitate a fresh look at the desirability or otherwise for charging entry fees to Lamington National Park.

Economic incentives for global conservation of wildlife: New international policy directions

Growing economic globalisation by extending the operation of markets is a two-edged sword as far as nature conservation is concerned. In some circumstances, it threatens the conservation of nature and in other cases, it provides economic incentives that foster the conservation of biodiversity. This article shows how global policy directions have altered in that regard. Initially the World Conservation Union (IUCN) favoured bans on trade in endangered species. This view was enshrined in the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species (CITES). Subsequently, with the upsurge of support for market-based economic liberalism, IUCN recognised that economic and market incentives, if linked to appropriate property rights, could foster biodiversity conservation. This is reflected in the International Convention on Biological Diversity. While there is conflict between this convention and CITES, its extent has been exaggerated. As explained, in certain cases, trade restrictions of the type adopted in CITES are appropriate for nature conservation whereas the market-oriented policy of the Convention on Biological Diversity can be effective in some different situations. Whether or not the extension of markets in wildlife and wildlife products and growing economic globalisation favours nature conservation varies according to the circumstances.

How knowledge affects payment to conserve an endangered bird

The paper reports the findings of an experimental survey conducted to determine the public's willingness to pay (WTP) for the protection and conservation of the golden-shouldered parrot in Australia. This parrot is endemic to Australia and is one of Australia's most endangered birds. The paper examines the public's knowledge of this parrot and compares it with other endangered birds as well as common birds and the public's WTP for conservation from a hypothetical allocation of money based on their current knowledge. We then examine how this allocation changes with increased knowledge about all species.

Modelling basin level allocation of water in the Murray-Darling Basin in a world of uncertainty, Murray-Darling Program Working Papers WPM05-1, Risk and Sustainable Management Group, 8 February 2005

Abstract: The Murray-Darling Basin comprises over 1 million km2; it lies within four states and one territory; and over 12, 800 GL of irrigation water is used to produce over 40% of the nation's gross value of agricultural production. This production is used by a diverse collection of some-times mutually exclusive commodities (e.g. pasture; stone fruit; grapes; cotton and field crops). The supply of water for irrigation is subject to climatic and policy uncertainty. Variable inflows mean that water property rights do not provide a guaranteed supply. With increasing public scrutiny and environmental issues facing irrigators, greater pressure is being placed on this finite resource. The uncertainty of the water supply, water quality (salinity), combined with where water is utilised, while attempting to maximising return for investment makes for an interesting research field. The utilisation and comparison of a GAMS and Excel based modelling approach has been used to ask: where should we allocate water?; amongst what commodities?; and how does this affect both the quantity of water and the quality of water along the Murray-Darling river system?

Caries-preventive Efficacy and Retention of a Resin-modified Glass lonomer Cement and a Resin-based Fissure Sealant: A 3-year Split-mouth Randomised Clinical Trial

Purpose: This prospective clinical trial compared the retention rate and caries-preventive efficacy of two types of sealant modalities over a 3-year period. Materials and Methods: Using a split-mouth randomised design, 1280 sealants were randomly applied on sound permanent second molars of 320 young patients aged between 12 and 16 years. Half of the teeth (n = 640) were sealed with a resin-modified glass ionomer cement (RMGIC) (Vitremer (TM), 3M ESPE) and the other half (n = 640) with a conventional light-cure, resin-based fissure sealant (LCRB) (Fluoroshield (R), Dentsply Caulk). Teeth were evaluated at baseline, 6-, 12-, 18-, 24-, 30- and 36-month intervals with regard to retention and new caries development. Results: On the sealed occlusal surfaces after 3 years, 5.10% of RMGIC and 91.08% of LCRB sealants were totally intact and 6.37% of RMGIC and 7.65% of LCRB sealants were partially intact. New caries lesions were found in 20.06% of RMGIC sealed occlusal surfaces, compared to 8.91% for LCRB sealants. Conclusions: The findings of the present clinical study suggest that RMGIC should be used only as a transitional sealant that can be applied to newly erupting teeth throughout the eruptive process, whereas LCRB sealants are used to successfully prevent occlusal caries lesions once an effective rubber dam can be achieved. It can be concluded that there are differences between the RMGIC and LCRB sealants over a 3-year period in terms of the retention rate and caries-preventive efficacy. RMGIC can serve as a simple and economic sealing solution, however provisional. Due to its poor retention rate, periodic recalls are necessary, even after 6 months, to eventually replace the lost sealant.

Curriculum development for professional ethics in Australian human service university programmes

Australian academics and practitioners in the human services are particularly susceptible to social, political and economic influences in respect of their relevance, viability and operations. In fact, it can be argued that the impact of these influences has placed human service practitioners and academics in a perpetual state of vulnerability. Australian universities have been challenged to make their programmes more relevant and viable to the community at large, and practitioners face increasing workloads with limited resources based on restricted fiscal allocation, and the changing relationship between government and service providers. Drawing on interview data from twenty-one (n = 21) practitioners, this article highlights their identified problems regarding the notion of professionalism in the human services with a particular focus on ethical dilemmas in human service practice. Gleaning these details will be a basis for recommending necessary professionalethics curricula content in human services programmes offered in Australian universities. Moreover, while the research data is Australian based, the authors contend that the universal theories and principles underpinning human service practice justify the significance and value of the data as an important source for international consideration in curriculum development of human service academic programmes.

Wildlife-based tourism & increased support for nature conservation financially and otherwise: evidence from sea-turtle ecotourism at Mon Repos

The arguments of most conservationists supporting ecotourism have been based on the view that it is environmentally friendly as a resource-use and that receipts from it can counter demands to use the natural resources involved for more extractive economic purposes. But wildlife-based ecotourism can also have positive impacts in itself on the willingness of tourists to pay for wildlife conservation, strengthen the pro-conservation attitudes of tourists, and foster personal actions by them that contribute to wildlife conservation. These aspects are explored in this article on the basis of a survey of tourists visiting Mon Repos Beach near Bundaberg, Queensland, for the purpose of watching marine turtles. The results enable several of the conservation impacts of this experience on tourists to be quantified, and highlight important relationships between specific socio-economic variables and the willingness of tourists to pay for the protection of sea turtles. Furthermore, it is shown that the on-site experiences of ecotourists have positive impacts on the willingness of tourists to pay for the conservation of wildlife, and that willingness to pay is sensitive to whether or not wildlife is seen. It is suggested that in situ ecotourism is likely to be a more powerful force for fostering pro-conservation attitudes and actions among visitors than ex situ wildlife-based tourism in aquaria and zoos.

A risk-based system to penalize and reward line management for occupational safety and health performance

Penalizing line management for the occurrence of lost time injuries has in some cases had unintended negative consequences. These are discussed. An alternative system is suggested that penalizes line management for accidents where the combination of the probability of recurrence and the maximum reasonable consequences such a recurrence may have exceeds an agreed limit. A reward is given for prompt effective control of the risk to below the agreed risk limit. The reward is smaller than the penalty. High-risk accidents require independent investigation by a safety officer using analytical techniques. Two case examples are given to illustrate the system. Continuous safety improvement is driven by a planned reduction in the agreed risk limit over time and reward for proactive risk assessment and control.