Stable isotopic compositions in Australian precipitation

Stable deuterium (delta D) and oxygen-18 (delta O-18) isotopes in 1962 to 2002 precipitation from the seven Australian stations of the Global Network of Isotopes in Precipitation (GNIP) were used to investigate isotope characteristics including temporal and spatial distributions across different regions of Australia. On the basis of 1534 samples, the local meteoric water line (LMWL) was established as delta D = 7.10 delta O-18 + 8.21. delta O-18 showed a depletion trend from north and south to central Australia (a continental effect) and from west to east. Precipitation amount effects were generally greater than temperature effects, with quadratic or logarithmic correlations describing delta/T and delta/P better than linear relationships. Nonlinear stepwise regression was used to determine the significant meteorological control factors for each station, explaining about 50% or more of the delta O-18 variations. Geographical control factors for delta O-18 were given by the relationship delta O-18 (parts per thousand) = -0.005 longitude (degrees) - 0.034 latitude (degrees)-0.003 altitude (m) - 4.753. Four different types of d-excess patterns demonstrated particular precipitation formation conditions for four major seasonal rainfall zones. Finally, wavelet coherence (WTC) between delta O-18 and SOI confirmed that the influence of ENSO decreased from east and north to west Australia.

Evolution and variability of the East Asian summer monsoon during the Pliocene: Evidence from clay mineral records of the South China Sea

The Late Pliocene is thought to be characterized by the simultaneous intensification of both the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) and East Asian summer monsoon (EASM). However, the evolution of the EASM during the Pliocene remains still controversial and only little is known about the dynamics of the EASM during the Pliocene on orbital time scales. Here we use clay mineral assemblages in sediments from Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Site 1143 in the southern South China Sea (SCS) to obtain proxy records of past changes in the EASM climate during the Pliocene. Provenance analysis suggests that illite, chlorite and kaolinite originated mainly from the Mekong River drainage area. Smectite was derived mainly from the Indonesian islands. The kaolinite/illite ratio and the chemical index of alteration (CIA) of siliciclastic sediments allowed us to reconstruct the history of chemical weathering and physical erosion of the Mekong River drainage area and thus, the evolution of,the EASM during the Pliocene. Our clay minerals proxy data suggests a stronger EASM during the Early Pliocene than during the Late Pliocene. We propose that the long-term evolution of the EASM has been driven by global cooling rather than the uplift of the Tibetan Plateau. Spectral analysis of kaolinite/ illite ratio displays a set of strong periodicities at 100 ka, 30 ka, 28 ka, 25 ka, and 22 ka. with no clear obliquityrelated signal. Our study suggests that the Pliocene EASM intensity on orbital time scales is not only controlled by the Northern Hemisphere summer insolation, but also strongly influenced by equatorial Pacific ENSO-like ocean atmosphere dynamics. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The variation of upper ocean structure and paleoproductivity in the Kuroshio source region during the last 200 kyr

A core from the source region of the Kuroshio warm current (east of the Luzon Island) was analyzed using several proxies in order to study the variability of the Western Pacific Warm Pool (WPWP) during the last two glacial-interglacial cycles. Primary productivity (PP) variations were deduced from variations in the coccolith flora. Primary productivity was higher during glacial periods (the end of Marine Isotope Stage [MIS] 3, some periods in MIS 2 and 6), and decreased during interglacial periods (MIS 7, MIS Se and probably MIS 5c-5d), with the lowest PP in MIS 5e. variations in the delta C-13 difference in benthic and bulk carbonate, thus in the vertical gradient of delta C-13 in dissolved inorganic carbon (Delta delta C-13(c). (wuellerstorfi-N. dutertrei) and Delta delta C-13(c.) (wuellerstorfi-coccolith)) Coincided With the PP Changes, showing that export productivity was low during interglacial periods (MIS 7, MIS 5e and Holocene) and high during glacial periods (MIS 6, probably MIS 5c-5d, late MIS 4 and late MIS 3). Comparison of foraminiferal carbonate dissolution indicators and PP changes reveals that nannofossil assemblage in core Ph05-5 is not sensitive to carbonate dissolution intensity. The depth of the thermocline (DOT) was estimated from planktonic forminiferal assemblages, and was relatively greater during interglacial periods (MIS 7, MIS 5e, probably MIS 5c and Holocene) than during glacials (middle MIS 6, probably MIS 5b and 5d, some periods in MIS 4, MIS 3 and MIS 2). Good coherence between the paleoproductivity records and the DOT suggests that the DOT changes could be the primary control factor in changes of paleoproductivity, and the glacial high productivity in the Kuroshio source region could be associated with a global increase of nutrient concentration in the intermediate waters that upwelled into the photic zone. The low CO2 values derived for intervals of high productivity and a relatively shallow DOT suggest that the changes in biological productivity and DOT in the equatorial Pacific could have modified atmospheric CO2 concentrations. High Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) during the warm MIS 5e in combination with intensified monsoonal rain fall could have resulted in a more intense stratification of the upper waters, resulting in low nutrient supply to the surface waters and a resulting decrease in productivity. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

25ka B.P.以来黑潮流域古环境演化对高频全球变化事件的响应

本文利用黑潮流域主流轴上的两个柱状沉积物岩芯MD05-2908以及PC-1为研究材料，在AMS14C测年的基础上，利用高分辨率的有机地球化学分析记录结合浮游有孔虫氧、碳同位素，恢复并重建了过去25,000 cal a BP以来黑潮流域古海洋环境演化的历史。以及表层海水生产力以及物质输送状况的演化历史。通过利用Uk’37古海水温度以及盐度指标恢复重建了过去25,000 cal a BP以来海洋表层海水温度、盐度；通过机碳、氮含量以及同位素变化、长链正构烷烃以及正构烷醇等指标重建了过去7000a B.P.以来的陆源物质输入历史；通过长链不饱和烯酮含量以及有机碳同位素指标恢复了过去7000a B.P.以来海水表层生产力的历史。此外，通过基于以上各种指标的环境信息与区域以及全球其它气候记录进行对比研究以及不同环境指标的时间系列分析，探讨了该区表层环流系统以及生产力的演化对于全球气候变化的响应，揭示了不同尺度的短周期高频率全球变化事件在黑潮流域的具体作用过程和响应机制。通过这些研究取得了以下的主要认识： 基于有机地球化学指标的古气候环境记录与黑潮流域已有的研究成果有很好的对应关系，从我们高分辨率的有机地球化学记录中可以识别出全新世黑潮强弱变化的几次明显的事件；25000a B.P.以来黑潮流域的环境变化与全球环境变化有着很好的对应性，黑潮强弱演化总体趋势与全球气候背景演化相一致，黑潮对高频气候变化事件的记录与全球记录具有同步性，这种同步性尤其体现在末次冰消期以来的气候快速高频振荡以及全新世以来的气候突变事件上。 全球性的高频气候事件对黑潮主体本身及黑潮流域的相邻区域的大气和海洋环流都具有重要的控制作用，这种控制作用主要通过副高、ITCZ以及季风三种气候要素之间相互关联、彼此影响造成的。具体表现为：太阳辐射量的减少导致热力差异减小，这种相对减小弱化了热带西太平洋的对流活动，造成了西太平洋副热带高压长期偏南、偏东，ITCZ平均北界位置偏南，降雨带长时间集中在南部地区，增强的降雨量提高了风化剥蚀以及沉积物向海洋搬运的能力，陆源物质供应量增加；同时，辐射量以及热力差的减小又与加强的东亚冬季风相联系，增强的冬季风导致了近底层“雾状层”物质的向海传输，物质传输效率增高。这种物源供应以及搬运量的双重增加导致了冲绳海槽流域物质通量的增加。 基于有机地球化学指标的海洋表层生产力的变化与陆源物质供应量以及黑潮流的强弱变化存在着对应关系，通常情况增加的海洋表层生产力对应着高的陆源物质输入以及相对较弱的黑潮。这种变化与东亚夏季风的以及冬季风的强弱都有很好的一致性。陆源物质的输入增加了表层营养物质的含量，导致生产力的勃发；陆源物质的输入增加又对应着减少的太阳辐射量，偏南的ITCZ北界位置以及副热带高压，这些对应于减弱的东亚夏季风（增强的东亚冬季风）。 黑潮流域的高沉积速率事件对应于减弱的黑潮强度和增加的ENSO频度，这些事件与上述的副热带高压、ITCZ位移和强弱的变化相一致。黑潮流域过去25000a B.P.以来南北温度的差异有冰期加大而全新世减小的趋势，但这种冰期与全新世的差异很小，我们认为末次盛冰期的时候黑潮主流轴没有移出冲绳黑潮，只是由于强度的减弱受陆架水体的影响有所加大。 黑潮流域很好的记录到了包括数千年尺度的D/O旋回周期到大气——海洋系统内部振荡所致的PDO、NAO等数十年尺度的高频振荡，说明黑潮流域对过去全球及区域环境变化事件有很好的响应。黑潮流域各古海洋指标所记录周期上的一致性说明这些环境因子控制机理上具有的一致性，即大背景上受太阳活动所引起的辐射量变化控制，局部的高频快速气候波动又受到局域性的气候因素如海气相互作用的放大影响。

Two modes of dipole events in tropical Indian Ocean

By analyzing the distributions of subsurface temperature and the surface wind stress anomalies in the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans during the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events, two major modes of the IOD and their formation mechanisms are revealed. (1) The subsurface temperature anomaly (STA) in the tropical Indian Ocean during the IOD events can be described as a "<" -shaped and west-east-oriented dipole pattern; in the east side of the "<" pattern, a notable tongue-like STA extends westward along the equator in the tropical eastern Indian Ocean; while in the west side of the "<" pattern, the STA has opposite sign with two centers (the southern one is stronger than the northern one in intensity) being of rough symmetry about the equator in the tropical mid-western Indian Ocean. (2) The IOD events are composed of two modes, which have similar spatial pattern but different temporal variabilities due to the large scale air-sea interactions within two independent systems. The first mode of the IOD event originates from the air-sea interaction on a scale of the tropical Pacific-Indian Ocean and coexists with ENSO. The second mode originates from the air-sea interaction on a scale of the tropical Indian Ocean and is closely associated with changes in the position and intensity of the Mascarene high pressure. The strong IOD event occurs when the two modes are in phase, and the IOD event weakens or disappears when the two modes are out of phase. Besides, the IOD events are normally strong when either of the two modes is strong. (3) The IOD event is caused by the abnormal wind stress forcing over the tropical Indian Ocean, which results in vertical transports, leading to the upwelling and pileup of seawater. This is the main dynamic processes resulting in the STA. When the anomalous easterly exists over the equatorial Indian Ocean, the cold waters upwell in the tropical eastern Indian Ocean while the warm waters pileup in the tropical western Indian Ocean, hence the thermocline in the tropical Indian Ocean is shallowed in the east and deepened in the west. The off-equator component due to the Coriolis force in the equatorial area causes the upwelling of cold waters and the shallowing of the equatorial India Ocean thermocline. On the other hand, the anomalous anticyclonic circulations and their curl fields located on both sides of the equator, cause the pileup of warm waters in the central area of their curl fields and the deepening of the equatorial Indian Ocean thermocline off the equator. The above three factors lead to the occurrence of positive phase IOD events. When anomalous westerly dominates over the tropical Indian Ocean, the dynamic processes are reversed, and the negative-phase IOD event occurs.

Subtropical dipole mode in the Southern Hemisphere: A global view

A global wavenumber-3 dipole SST mode is showed to exist in the Southern Hemisphere subtropical climate variability in austral summer. A positive (negative) phase of the mode is characterized by cool (warm) SST anomalies in the east and warm (cool) SST anomalies in the southwest of the south Indian, Pacific, and Atlantic Oceans, respectively. This coherent dipole structure is largely a response of ocean mixed layer to the atmospheric forcing characterized by migration and modulation of the subtropical high-pressures, in which the latent heat flux play a leading role through wind-induced evaporation, although ocean dynamics may also be crucial in forming SST anomalies attached to the continents. Exploratory analyses suggest that this mode is strongly damped by the negative heat flux feedback, with a persistence time about three months and no spectral peak at interannual to decadal time scales. As the subtropical dipole mode is linearly independent of ENSO and SAM, whether it represents an additional source of climate predictability should be further studied. Citation: Wang, F. (2010), Subtropical dipole mode in the Southern Hemisphere: A global view, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L10702, doi: 10.1029/2010GL042750.

The variability of eddy kinetic energy in the South China Sea deduced from satellite altimeter data

We used fifteen years (1993-2007) of altimetric data, combined from different missions (ERS-1/2, TOPEX/Poseidon, Jason-1, and Envisat), to analyze the variability of the eddy kinetic energy (EKE) in the South China Sea (SCS). We found that the EKE ranged from 64 cm(2)/s(2) to 1 390 cm(2)/s(2) with a mean value of 314 cm(2)/s(2). The highest EKE center was observed to the east of Vietnam (with a mean value of 509 cm(2)/s(2)) and the second highest EKE region was located to the southwest of Taiwan Island (with a mean value of 319 cm(2)/s(2)). We also found that the EKE structure is the consequence of the superposition of different variability components. First, interannual variability is important in the SCS. Spectral analysis of the EKE interannual signal (IA-EKE) shows that the main periodicities of the IA-EKE to the east of Vietnam, to the southwest of Taiwan Island, and in the SCS are 3.75, 1.87, and 3.75 years, respectively. It is to the south of Taiwan Island that the IA-EKE signal has the most obvious impact on EKE variability. In addition, the IA-EKE exhibit different trends in different regions. An obvious positive trend is observed along the east coast of Vietnam, while a negative trend is found to the southwest of Taiwan Island and in the east basin of Vietnam. Correlation analysis shows that the IA-EKE has an obvious negative correlation with the SSTA in Nio3 (5A degrees S-5A degrees N, 90A degrees W-150A degrees W). El Nio-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) affects the IA-EKE variability in the SCS through an atmospheric bridge-wind stress curl over the SCS. Second, the seasonal cycle is the most obvious timescale affecting EKE variability. The locations of the most remarkable EKE seasonal variabilities in the SCS are to the east of Vietnam, to the southwest of Taiwan, and to the west of Philippines. To the east of Vietnam, the seasonal cycle is the dominant mechanism controlling EKE variability, which is attributed primarily to the annual cycle there of wind stress curl. In this area, the maximum EKE is observed in autumn. To the southwest of Taiwan Island, the EKE is enlarged by the stronger SCS circulation, which is caused by the intrusion branch from the Kuroshio in winter. Finally, intra-annual and mesoscale variability, although less important than the former, cannot be neglected. The most obvious intra-annual and mesoscale variability, which may be the result of baroclinic instability of the background flow, are observed to the southwest of Taiwan Island. Sporadic events can have an important effect on EKE variability.

Interannual horizontal heat advection in the surface mixed layer over the equatorial Pacific Ocean: assimilation versus TAO analysis

The interannual anomalies of horizontal heat advection in the surface mixed layer over the equatorial Pacific Ocean in an assimilation experiment are studied and compared with existing observational analyses. The assimilation builds upon a hindcast study that has produced a good simulation of the observed equatorial currents and optimizes the simulation of the Reynolds sea surface temperature (SST) data. The comparison suggests that the assimilation has improved the simulation of the interannual horizontal heat advection of the surface mixed layer significantly. During periods of interrupted current measurements, the assimilation is shown to produce more meaningful anomalies of the heat advection than the interpolation of the observational data does. The assimilation also shows that the eddy heat flux due to the correlation between high-frequency current and SST variations, which is largely overlooked by the existing observational analyses, is important for the interannual SST balance over the equatorial Pacific. The interannual horizontal heat advection anomalies are found to be sensitive to SST errors where oceanic currents are strong, which is a challenge for ENSO prediction. The study further suggests that the observational analyses of the tropical SST balance based on the TAO and the Reynolds SST data contain significant errors due to the large gradient errors in the Reynolds SST data, which are amplified into the advection anomalies by the large equatorial currents.

Dynamics of nonlinear error growth and season-dependent predictability of El Nino events in the Zebiak-Cane model

With the intermediate-complexity Zebiak-Cane model, we investigate the 'spring predictability barrier' (SPB) problem for El Nino events by tracing the evolution of conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP), where CNOP is superimposed on the El Nino events and acts as the initial error with the biggest negative effect on the El Nino prediction. We show that the evolution of CNOP-type errors has obvious seasonal dependence and yields a significant SPB, with the most severe occurring in predictions made before the boreal spring in the growth phase of El Nino. The CNOP-type errors can be classified into two types: one possessing a sea-surface-temperature anomaly pattern with negative anomalies in the equatorial central-western Pacific, positive anomalies in the equatorial eastern Pacific, and a thermocline depth anomaly pattern with positive anomalies along the Equator, and another with patterns almost opposite to those of the former type. In predictions through the spring in the growth phase of El Nino, the initial error with the worst effect on the prediction tends to be the latter type of CNOP error, whereas in predictions through the spring in the decaying phase, the initial error with the biggest negative effect on the prediction is inclined to be the former type of CNOP error. Although the linear singular vector (LSV)-type errors also have patterns similar to the CNOP-type errors, they cover a more localized area than the CNOP-type errors and cause a much smaller prediction error, yielding a less significant SPB. Random errors in the initial conditions are also superimposed on El Nino events to investigate the SPB. We find that, whenever the predictions start, the random errors neither exhibit an obvious season-dependent evolution nor yield a large prediction error, and thus may not be responsible for the SPB phenomenon for El Nino events. These results suggest that the occurrence of the SPB is closely related to particular initial error patterns. The two kinds of CNOP-type error are most likely to cause a significant SPB. They have opposite signs and, consequently, opposite growth behaviours, a result which may demonstrate two dynamical mechanisms of error growth related to SPB: in one case, the errors grow in a manner similar to El Nino; in the other, the errors develop with a tendency opposite to El Nino. The two types of CNOP error may be most likely to provide the information regarding the 'sensitive area' of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) predictions. If these types of initial error exist in realistic ENSO predictions and if a target method or a data assimilation approach can filter them, the ENSO forecast skill may be improved. Copyright (C) 2009 Royal Meteorological Society

Variations in the eastern Indian Ocean warm pool and its relation to the dipole in the tropical Indian Ocean

Based on the monthly average SST and 850 hPa monthly average wind data, the seasonal, interannual and long-term variations in the eastern Indian Ocean warm pool (EIWP) and its relationship to the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), and its response to the wind over the Indian Ocean are analyzed in this study. The results show that the distribution range, boundary and area of the EIWP exhibited obviously seasonal and interannual variations associated with the ENSO cycles. Further analysis suggests that the EIWP had obvious long-term trend in its bound edge and area, which indicated the EIWP migrated westwards by about 14 longitudes for its west edge, southwards by about 5 latitudes for its south edge and increased by 3.52x10(6) km(2) for its area, respectively, from 1950 to 2002. The correlation and composite analyses show that the anomalous westward and northward displacements of the EIWP caused by the easterly wind anomaly and the southerly wind anomaly over the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean played an important and direct role in the formation of the IOD.

Progress of large-scale air-sea interaction studies in China

This paper summarizes the progress of large-scale air-sea interaction studies that has been achieved in China in the four-year period from July 1998 to July 2002, including seven aspects in the area of the air-sea interaction, namely air-sea interaction related to the tropical Pacific Ocean, monsoon-related air-sea interaction, air-sea interaction in the north Pacific Ocean, air-sea interaction in the Indian Ocean, air-sea interactions in the global oceans, field experiments, and oceanic cruise surveys. However more attention has been paid to the first and the second aspects because a large number of papers in the reference literature for preparing and organizing this paper are concentrated in the tropical Pacific Ocean, such as the ENSO process with its climatic effects and dynamics, and the monsoon-related air-sea interaction. The literature also involves various phenomena with their different time and spatial scales such as intraseasonal, annual, interannual, and interdecadal variabilities in the atmosphere/ocean interaction system, reflecting the contemporary themes in the four-year period at the beginning of an era from the post-TOGA to CLIVAR studies. Apparently, it is a difficult task to summarize the great progress in this area, as it is extracted from a large quantity of literature, although the authors tried very hard.

Role of snow depth in spring of Tibetan Plateau in onset of South China Sea summer monsoon

The role of snow depth of Tibetan Plateau in the onset of South China Sea summer monsoon and the influence of ENSO on snow depth of Tibetan Plateau are investigated with use of data from ECMWF reanalysis and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. The results are as follows: (1) The snow depth data from ECMWF reanalysis are tested and reliable, and can be used to study the influence of snow depth of Tibetan Plateau on the onset of South China Sea summer monsoon; (2) Anomaly of snow depth of Tibetan Plateau causes anomaly in air temperature and its contrast between the Indian Ocean and the continent resulting in easterly wind anomaly over 500 hPa and hence as well as in the atmospheric circulation in the lower layer. For the year of negative anomaly of snow depth a westerly wind anomaly with a cyclone pair takes place, while for positive anomaly of snow depth an easterly anomaly occurs with an anticyclone pair; (3) While positive anomaly of SST occurs in the eastern Pacific Ocean, positive anomaly of air pressure also takes place over the eastern Indian Ocean and the South China Sea, causing stronger meridional pressure gradient between the ocean and continent and then westerly wind anomaly. At the same time, the atmospheric pressure increases in the northern Tibetan Plateau, northerly wind gets stronger, and subtropical front strengthens. All of these are favorable for snowfall over Tibetan Plateau.

An approach to prediction of the South China Sea summer monsoon onset

In the present paper, correlation between the South China Sea summer monsoon (SCSSM) onset and heat content in the upper layer of the warm pool in the western Pacific Ocean is examined using the Scripps Institution of Oceanography dataset for the period of 1955-1998 and an approach to prediction the SCSSM onset is proposed. Correlation showes that there exists interdecadal variability of the SCSSM onset demarcated by 1970 with the largest correlation coefficient in the area west of the center of the warm pool rather than near its centers, implying certain effect from other factors involved besides ENSO. As the correlation is poor for the period before 1970, the heat content anomaly of the warm pool after 1970 is used to indicate early or late onset of the SCSSM beforehand. An ideal representative area (1A degrees x1A degrees) for the warm pool heat content was determined with its center at 3A degrees N/138A degrees E. The nearest TAO (TAO-Tropical Atmosphere Ocean-array) mooring to the center is at 2A degrees N/137A degrees E, and chosen to calculate the heat content for prediction. It is suggested that the TAO mooring at 2A degrees N/137A degrees E could be used to predict the SCSSM onset with the heat content in the upper layer, if the correlation between the SCSSM onset and the heat content of the warm pool runs like that of after 1970. On the other hand, if the situation does like the one before 1970, the representative station is determined at 13A degrees S/74A degrees E with relatively poor correlation, meaning that the warm pool in the western Pacific Ocean plays more important role in the SCSSM onset than the Indian Ocean.

Algorithm Studies on How to Obtain a Conditional Nonlinear Optimal Perturbation (CNOP)

The conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP), which is a nonlinear generalization of the linear singular vector (LSV), is applied in important problems of atmospheric and oceanic sciences, including ENSO predictability, targeted observations, and ensemble forecast. In this study, we investigate the computational cost of obtaining the CNOP by several methods. Differences and similarities, in terms of the computational error and cost in obtaining the CNOP, are compared among the sequential quadratic programming (SQP) algorithm, the limited memory Broyden-Fletcher-Goldfarb-Shanno (L-BFGS) algorithm, and the spectral projected gradients (SPG2) algorithm. A theoretical grassland ecosystem model and the classical Lorenz model are used as examples. Numerical results demonstrate that the computational error is acceptable with all three algorithms. The computational cost to obtain the CNOP is reduced by using the SQP algorithm. The experimental results also reveal that the L-BFGS algorithm is the most effective algorithm among the three optimization algorithms for obtaining the CNOP. The numerical results suggest a new approach and algorithm for obtaining the CNOP for a large-scale optimization problem.