Istmo Centroamericano: crisis global, desafíos, oportunidades y nuevas estrategias

Incluye Bibliografía

The maritime cycle and the post-crisis ups and downs

This edition of the FAL Bulletin analyses the maritime cycle and its impact on the overall business cycle. In particular, it considers the financial and economic crisis which shook the world from 2008 onwards, affecting both world trade and levels of economic activity, with serious consequences for maritime transport.

The employment situation in Latin America and the Caribbean: Crisis in the labour markets and countercyclical responses

As predicted in the first bulletin, produced jointly by the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) and the International Labour Organization (ILO), the impact of the economic crisis continued to be felt in Latin America and the Caribbean during the second quarter of 2009. Regional exports of goods and services contracted in response to sluggish demand on international markets, while remittances and foreign direct investment flows continued to fall, credit lost its buoyancy and the total wage bill diminished, owing mainly to job losses. As a result, the growth forecasts of many countries had to be adjusted downwards. Since the end of 2008, the countries of the region had started to implement countercyclical policies —albeit with significant differences— in an effort to use public spending to counter flagging investment and consumer-spending levels and boost aggregate demand. In this second bulletin, ECLAC and ILO show how the impact of the crisis has deepened in labour markets in the region in the first half of the year and examine existing options and the outcome of public-infrastructure and emergency employment programmes designed to mitigate the impact of the crisis on the labour market. The unemployment rate has risen in practically all countries compared with the previous year and this situation worsened further in the second quarter, when urban unemployment exceeded the rate of the corresponding period in 2008 by 1 percentage point (to stand at 8.5%, up from 7.5%), while in the first quarter, the variation was 0.6 of a percentage point. Labour indicators also point to an increase in informality, a decline in employment with social protection and a decrease in full-time employment. Labour-market trends observed in the first half-year, together with the forecast for a 1.9% decline in regional GDP in 2009, suggest that the average annual rate of urban unemployment in the region will be close to 8.5%. This forecast is slightly less pessimistic than the estimate given in the first bulletin; this is attributable to the fall in the participation rate in the first half-year to levels that are expected to remain low for the rest of the year. Without this reduction in the labour supply, due largely to the “discouragement effect”, the annual average urban unemployment rate would stand at between 8.8% and 8.9%. Thus, the open urban unemployment figure would increase by 2.5 million and if the “discouraged job-seekers” are included, then the number of additional persons not finding a niche in the urban labour market would climb to 3.2 million. In the region, as in the rest of the world, there are signs that the crisis may have reached bottom in the middle of the year. In many countries, production levels have ceased their decline and there are indications of an incipient recovery leading to cautious optimism that there may be a moderate upturn in labour markets in the fourth quarter. The pace of recovery will vary from one country to the next and is expected to be gradual at best. Even with the return to a growth path, there should be no illusion that the labour problems will immediately disappear. First, the recovery in employment is expected to lag behind the upturn in economic activity. Second, since economic growth is likely to remain moderate in the short term and well below the rates recorded between late 2003 and mid-2008, demand for labour and consequently the generation of good-quality jobs will continue to be weak. Thus, countries should not relax their efforts to defend and create decent jobs, but rather should take steps to improve the effectiveness and efficiency of available instruments. In this way, the region will be in a better position not only to confront the challenges of economic recovery, but also to strengthen the foundations for social inclusion and for advancing under more favourable conditions towards fulfilment of the Millennium Development Goals.

The employment situation in Latin America and the Caribbean: Crisis and the labour market

Since the financial and economic crisis began to affect the real economy and spread throughout the world, the region’s economies have been faced with a situation where data on employment and labour reflect the real stories of millions of women and men for whom the future has become uncertain. When these problems began to appear, the International Labour Organization (ILO) warned that the world faced a global employment crisis whose consequences could lead to a social recession. As the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) has pointed out, the outbreak of the crisis put an end to a five-year period of sustained growth and falling unemployment. As early as the second half of 2008, the figures began to reflect slowing economic growth, while a downward slide began in the labour market. This initial bulletin, produced jointly by ECLAC and ILO, seeks to review the ways in which the crisis is affecting the region’s labour markets. Amidst a situation characterized by shocks and uncertainty, governments and social partners must have the inputs needed for designing public policies to increase the population’s levels of employment and well-being. It is planned to produce two further bulletins by January 2010, in order to measure the impact of the crisis on employment and provide an input to the process of defining the best public policies to reverse its consequences. The bulletin reviews the most recent available indicators and analyses them in order to establish trends and detect variations. It provides statistics for the first quarter, estimates for the rest of 2009, and a review of policies announced by the Governments. In 2008, the last year of the growth cycle, the region’s urban unemployment stood at 7.5%. According to economic growth forecasts for 2009, the average annual urban unemployment rate for the region will increase to between 8.7% and 9.1%; in other words, between 2.8 million and 3.9 million additional people will swell the ranks of the unemployed. Data for the first quarter of 2009 already confirm that the crisis is hitting employment in the region. Compared with the first quarter of 2008, the urban unemployment rate was up by 0.6 percentage points, representing over a million people.Work will continue until September 2009 on the preparation of a new report on the employment situation, using data updated to the first half of 2009. This will provide a picture of the region’s employment situation, so that growth and employment projections can be adjusted for 2009 as a whole. Strategies for dealing with the crisis must have jobs and income protection as their central goals. Policies are moving in that direction in Latin America and the Caribbean and, if they are effective, an even greater worsening of the situation may be avoided. Labour produces wealth, generates consumption, keeps economies functioning and is a key factor in seeking out the way to more sustainable and equitable growth once the crisis is past.

Economic survey of the Caribbean 2008-2009

This survey provides an overview of the economic performance of countries of the Caribbean Community (CARICOM) for the year 2008 and their outlook for 2009. The report comprises three chapters. The first provides a regional comparative analysis of the main macroeconomic variables, namely GDP growth, inflation, fiscal and external accounts, as well as fiscal, monetary and other policies, particularly those specifically devised to cope with the ongoing global economic crisis. The second chapter deals with two topics relevant for economic development in the region: economic growth and small and medium enterprises development from an analytical and empirical perspective. The last chapter presents country briefs of the seven most developed countries (MDCs) in the Caribbean – Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Guyana, Jamaica, Suriname and Trinidad and Tobago – together with a subregional assessment of the eight member countries of the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU).

The United States subprime mortgage crisis and its implications for the Caribbean

The bursting of the property bubble – subprime mortgage crisis – in 2007 in the United States has engendered panic, recession fears and turmoil in the global financial system. Although the United States economy grew by 0.6 per cent in the last quarter of 2007, down from 4.9 per cent in the previous quarter, day by day worsening scenarios emerge, from escalating oil prices, to a depreciating dollar and financial institutions’ bailout by the Federal Reserve. Many economists and policy makers share the view that a subprime-led recession – i.e. two consecutive quarters with negative growth – is inevitable and will be much deeper and longer than the 2001 dot-com downturn. Moreover, the critical situation of the financial system has driven some analysts to argue that should the monetary policy response fails to restore confidence among investors, the outcome would be the worst crisis seen since the Great Depression. This pessimism is not only among specialists. Indeed, in late March 2008 the Consumer Confidence Index in the United States recorded its lowest level since February 1992. A recession in the United States will undoubtedly have an important impact on the world economy, despite the continuous rapid growth experienced by emerging economies, particularly China and India. The purpose of this article is threefold: first, to characterize the current situation in the United States economy; second, to discuss the economic policy responses; and finally, to elaborate on how Caribbean economies may be affected.

Latin America and the Caribbean in the World Economy 2015. The regional trade crisis: assessment and outlook.

With external conditions sluggish and highly uncertain as the global economy still struggles to shake off the effects of the economic crisis of 2008-2009, the Latin American and Caribbean region is not isolated from these effects and is projected to record a small drop in gross domestic product (GDP) in 2015, followed by a weak recovery in 2016. Against this backdrop, 2015 will be the third consecutive year of increasing declines in regional export values; a state of affairs not seen since the Great Depression of the 1930s. This poor performance reflects the end of the commodity price boom, the slowdown of the Chinese economy, the weak recovery of the eurozone and the lacklustre economic activity in the region, particularly in South America.

Small town sustainability: economic, social, and environmental innovation. 2. überarb. Aufl.

In an age where the globalization process is threatening the uniqueness and vitality of small towns, and where most urban planning discourse is directed at topics such as metropol-regions or mega-regions and world cities, the authors here emphasize the need to critically reflect on the potential of small towns. The second edition is expanded to cover the intensive development of small towns in China and Korea. In addition, the authors examine the impact of the economic crisis on small towns and the recent development of the Slow City movement.

The Restructuring in the Post-Crisis Korean Economy

The current paper evaluates the restructuring measures implemented in the post-crisis Korean economy. Its policies taken after the economic crisis were quite successful in terms of economic recovery. The financial and corporate sector reforms undertaken by the Korean government contributed to strengthening the banking and corporate sectors, attracting FDI inflows. However, most indicators show worsening of income inequalities and workers. situation regarding job security. The strengths as well as the weaknesses of the development strategy of Korea and its reform measures undertaken since the occurrence of the economic crisis need to be differentiated.

Asociaciones empresarias del agro y crisis de acumulación, 1998-1999 : Un antecedente de la "Mesa de Enlace"

El objetivo del artículo es reconstruir la acción de las asociaciones empresarias agropecuarias en 1998-99, analizándola vis a vis con la situación del sector en la crisis económica iniciada en 1998. Para aproximarnos, analizamos la situación del agro bajo la Convertibilidad mediante estadísticas oficiales y bibliografía especializada. Asimismo, abordamos la organización y demandas de las asociaciones empresarias del agro mediante documentos, comunicados y declaraciones. Se destacan como resultados el cambio a una posición crítica de la SRA y CRA en la crisis, la similitud de demandas con la FAA y Coninagro y los variables grados de unidad expresados en el proceso

La crisis económica y sus impactos sobre la política de empleo e ingresos en Argentin

La crisis global comenzó en 2008 a golpear la economía argentina y puso en cuestión nuevamente las políticas sociales y de empleo. La respuesta del gobierno fue profundizar un esquema que asume que el crecimiento podrá resolver -por sí solo- el problema del bienestar. En este trabajo nos proponemos alcanzar dos objetivos principales. Primero discutir la actual crisis y las formas en que se articula el ciclo del capital en Argentina. Segundo analizar las políticas de empleo y sostenimiento de ingresos implementadas con posterioridad al 2001, en especial aquellas que se creadas en el marco de la crisis. Con este fin se trabajará a partir de información estadística e informes y evaluaciones de los principales programas implementados: el Plan Jefes y Jefas de Hogar Desocupados, el Programa de Recuperación Productiva (REPRO) y el Plan de Ingreso Social con Trabajo "Argentina Trabaja".

Asociaciones empresarias del agro y crisis de acumulación, 1998-1999 : Un antecedente de la "Mesa de Enlace"

El objetivo del artículo es reconstruir la acción de las asociaciones empresarias agropecuarias en 1998-99, analizándola vis a vis con la situación del sector en la crisis económica iniciada en 1998. Para aproximarnos, analizamos la situación del agro bajo la Convertibilidad mediante estadísticas oficiales y bibliografía especializada. Asimismo, abordamos la organización y demandas de las asociaciones empresarias del agro mediante documentos, comunicados y declaraciones. Se destacan como resultados el cambio a una posición crítica de la SRA y CRA en la crisis, la similitud de demandas con la FAA y Coninagro y los variables grados de unidad expresados en el proceso

La crisis económica y sus impactos sobre la política de empleo e ingresos en Argentin

La crisis global comenzó en 2008 a golpear la economía argentina y puso en cuestión nuevamente las políticas sociales y de empleo. La respuesta del gobierno fue profundizar un esquema que asume que el crecimiento podrá resolver -por sí solo- el problema del bienestar. En este trabajo nos proponemos alcanzar dos objetivos principales. Primero discutir la actual crisis y las formas en que se articula el ciclo del capital en Argentina. Segundo analizar las políticas de empleo y sostenimiento de ingresos implementadas con posterioridad al 2001, en especial aquellas que se creadas en el marco de la crisis. Con este fin se trabajará a partir de información estadística e informes y evaluaciones de los principales programas implementados: el Plan Jefes y Jefas de Hogar Desocupados, el Programa de Recuperación Productiva (REPRO) y el Plan de Ingreso Social con Trabajo "Argentina Trabaja".

Asociaciones empresarias del agro y crisis de acumulación, 1998-1999 : Un antecedente de la "Mesa de Enlace"

El objetivo del artículo es reconstruir la acción de las asociaciones empresarias agropecuarias en 1998-99, analizándola vis a vis con la situación del sector en la crisis económica iniciada en 1998. Para aproximarnos, analizamos la situación del agro bajo la Convertibilidad mediante estadísticas oficiales y bibliografía especializada. Asimismo, abordamos la organización y demandas de las asociaciones empresarias del agro mediante documentos, comunicados y declaraciones. Se destacan como resultados el cambio a una posición crítica de la SRA y CRA en la crisis, la similitud de demandas con la FAA y Coninagro y los variables grados de unidad expresados en el proceso

La crisis económica y sus impactos sobre la política de empleo e ingresos en Argentin

La crisis global comenzó en 2008 a golpear la economía argentina y puso en cuestión nuevamente las políticas sociales y de empleo. La respuesta del gobierno fue profundizar un esquema que asume que el crecimiento podrá resolver -por sí solo- el problema del bienestar. En este trabajo nos proponemos alcanzar dos objetivos principales. Primero discutir la actual crisis y las formas en que se articula el ciclo del capital en Argentina. Segundo analizar las políticas de empleo y sostenimiento de ingresos implementadas con posterioridad al 2001, en especial aquellas que se creadas en el marco de la crisis. Con este fin se trabajará a partir de información estadística e informes y evaluaciones de los principales programas implementados: el Plan Jefes y Jefas de Hogar Desocupados, el Programa de Recuperación Productiva (REPRO) y el Plan de Ingreso Social con Trabajo "Argentina Trabaja".