Looking for orders of magnitude : five essays in trade and the environment and economic geography

General Summary Although the chapters of this thesis address a variety of issues, the principal aim is common: test economic ideas in an international economic context. The intention has been to supply empirical findings using the largest suitable data sets and making use of the most appropriate empirical techniques. This thesis can roughly be divided into two parts: the first one, corresponding to the first two chapters, investigates the link between trade and the environment, the second one, the last three chapters, is related to economic geography issues. Environmental problems are omnipresent in the daily press nowadays and one of the arguments put forward is that globalisation causes severe environmental problems through the reallocation of investments and production to countries with less stringent environmental regulations. A measure of the amplitude of this undesirable effect is provided in the first part. The third and the fourth chapters explore the productivity effects of agglomeration. The computed spillover effects between different sectors indicate how cluster-formation might be productivity enhancing. The last chapter is not about how to better understand the world but how to measure it and it was just a great pleasure to work on it. "The Economist" writes every week about the impressive population and economic growth observed in China and India, and everybody agrees that the world's center of gravity has shifted. But by how much and how fast did it shift? An answer is given in the last part, which proposes a global measure for the location of world production and allows to visualize our results in Google Earth. A short summary of each of the five chapters is provided below. The first chapter, entitled "Unraveling the World-Wide Pollution-Haven Effect" investigates the relative strength of the pollution haven effect (PH, comparative advantage in dirty products due to differences in environmental regulation) and the factor endowment effect (FE, comparative advantage in dirty, capital intensive products due to differences in endowments). We compute the pollution content of imports using the IPPS coefficients (for three pollutants, namely biological oxygen demand, sulphur dioxide and toxic pollution intensity for all manufacturing sectors) provided by the World Bank and use a gravity-type framework to isolate the two above mentioned effects. Our study covers 48 countries that can be classified into 29 Southern and 19 Northern countries and uses the lead content of gasoline as proxy for environmental stringency. For North-South trade we find significant PH and FE effects going in the expected, opposite directions and being of similar magnitude. However, when looking at world trade, the effects become very small because of the high North-North trade share, where we have no a priori expectations about the signs of these effects. Therefore popular fears about the trade effects of differences in environmental regulations might by exaggerated. The second chapter is entitled "Is trade bad for the Environment? Decomposing worldwide SO2 emissions, 1990-2000". First we construct a novel and large database containing reasonable estimates of SO2 emission intensities per unit labor that vary across countries, periods and manufacturing sectors. Then we use these original data (covering 31 developed and 31 developing countries) to decompose the worldwide SO2 emissions into the three well known dynamic effects (scale, technique and composition effect). We find that the positive scale (+9,5%) and the negative technique (-12.5%) effect are the main driving forces of emission changes. Composition effects between countries and sectors are smaller, both negative and of similar magnitude (-3.5% each). Given that trade matters via the composition effects this means that trade reduces total emissions. We next construct, in a first experiment, a hypothetical world where no trade happens, i.e. each country produces its imports at home and does no longer produce its exports. The difference between the actual and this no-trade world allows us (under the omission of price effects) to compute a static first-order trade effect. The latter now increases total world emissions because it allows, on average, dirty countries to specialize in dirty products. However, this effect is smaller (3.5%) in 2000 than in 1990 (10%), in line with the negative dynamic composition effect identified in the previous exercise. We then propose a second experiment, comparing effective emissions with the maximum or minimum possible level of SO2 emissions. These hypothetical levels of emissions are obtained by reallocating labour accordingly across sectors within each country (under the country-employment and the world industry-production constraints). Using linear programming techniques, we show that emissions are reduced by 90% with respect to the worst case, but that they could still be reduced further by another 80% if emissions were to be minimized. The findings from this chapter go together with those from chapter one in the sense that trade-induced composition effect do not seem to be the main source of pollution, at least in the recent past. Going now to the economic geography part of this thesis, the third chapter, entitled "A Dynamic Model with Sectoral Agglomeration Effects" consists of a short note that derives the theoretical model estimated in the fourth chapter. The derivation is directly based on the multi-regional framework by Ciccone (2002) but extends it in order to include sectoral disaggregation and a temporal dimension. This allows us formally to write present productivity as a function of past productivity and other contemporaneous and past control variables. The fourth chapter entitled "Sectoral Agglomeration Effects in a Panel of European Regions" takes the final equation derived in chapter three to the data. We investigate the empirical link between density and labour productivity based on regional data (245 NUTS-2 regions over the period 1980-2003). Using dynamic panel techniques allows us to control for the possible endogeneity of density and for region specific effects. We find a positive long run elasticity of density with respect to labour productivity of about 13%. When using data at the sectoral level it seems that positive cross-sector and negative own-sector externalities are present in manufacturing while financial services display strong positive own-sector effects. The fifth and last chapter entitled "Is the World's Economic Center of Gravity Already in Asia?" computes the world economic, demographic and geographic center of gravity for 1975-2004 and compares them. Based on data for the largest cities in the world and using the physical concept of center of mass, we find that the world's economic center of gravity is still located in Europe, even though there is a clear shift towards Asia. To sum up, this thesis makes three main contributions. First, it provides new estimates of orders of magnitudes for the role of trade in the globalisation and environment debate. Second, it computes reliable and disaggregated elasticities for the effect of density on labour productivity in European regions. Third, it allows us, in a geometrically rigorous way, to track the path of the world's economic center of gravity.

Growth, selection and appropriate contracts

We study a dynamic model where growth requires both long-term investmentand the selection of talented managers. When ability is not ex-ante observable and contracts are incomplete, managerial selection imposes a cost, as managers facing the risk ofbeing replaced choose a sub-optimally low level of long-term investment. This generates atrade-off between selection and investment that has implications for the choice of contractualrelationships and institutions. Our analysis shows that rigid long-term contracts sacrificingmanagerial selection may prevail at early stages of economic development and when heterogeneity in ability is low. As the economy grows, however, knowledge accumulation increasesthe return to talent and makes it optimal to adopt flexible contractual relationships, wheremanagerial selection is implemented even at the cost of lower investment. Measures of investor protection aimed at limiting the bargaining power of managers improve selection undershort-term contract. Given that knowledge accumulation raises the value of selection, theoptimal level of investor protection increases with development.

A panel data analysis of FDI and informal labor markets

The objective of this paper is to examine whether informal labor markets affect the flows of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), and also whether this effect is similar in developed and developing countries. With this aim, different public data sources, such as the World Bank (WB), and the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) are used, and panel econometric models are estimated for a sample of 65 countries over a 14 year period (1996-2009). In addition, this paper uses a dynamic model as an extension of the analysis to establish whether such an effect exists and what its indicators and significance may be.

Tislauskolonnin varopurkauksen laskeminen dynaamisen simuloinnin avulla

Työn tavoitteena oli tutkia tislauskolonnin dynamiikkaa ja dynaamista mallintamista simulointien avulla. Dynaamisen simulointimallin avulla selvitettiin pentaanin erotuskolonnin toimintaa poikkeus- ja häiriötilanteissa. Lisäksi pyrittiin arvioimaan työssä käytettyjen simulointiohjelmistojen soveltuvuutta tislauksen dynaamiseen simulointiin. Työn kirjallisuusosassa käsiteltiin tislauskolonnindynamiikan mallintamista matemaattisten mallien avulla sekä tislauskolonnimallin rakentamista simulointiohjelmistoon. Kirjallisuusosassa esiteltiin myös tislauskolonnin häiriötilanteita ja niiden aiheuttamia varopurkaustapauksia. Tämän lisäksi kirjallisuusosassa käytiin läpi tislauskolonnin varoventtiilien mitoittamisen perusteita. Työn soveltavassa osassa muodostettiin tislauskolonnille dynaaminen simulointimalli Aspen HYSYS Dynamics ja PROSimulator-simulointiohjelmistolla. Mallien avulla tarkasteltiin erilaisten häiriöiden ja poikkeustilanteiden vaikutusta kolonnin käyttäytymiseen ja varopurkaus-tapauksiin. Työssä arvioitiin myös ohjelmistojen soveltuvuutta tislauksen dynaamiseen simulointiin. Työssä saatujen tulosten perusteella voidaan todeta, että dynaamisen simuloinnin avulla saadaan hyödyllistä tietoa tislauskolonnin toiminnasta häiriö- ja poikkeustilanteissa. Dynaamisen simuloinnin onnistuminen ja luotettavien tulosten saaminen edellyttää kuitenkin tarkasteltavan prosessin tuntemista ja ohjelmiston käytön hallintaa. Työssä käytetyn Aspen HYSYS Dynamics simulointiohjelmiston käytettävyydessä havaittiin puutteita ja ohjelmisto vaatii vielä kehitystyötä. Työssä käytetty PROSimulator-simulointiohjelmisto soveltui pienistä puutteista huolimatta hyvin tislauskolonnin häiriötilanteiden tutkimiseen.

Modelado, simulación y control digital de autogiros

Este proyecto consiste en diseñar el algoritmo de control de un autogiro no tripulado. Su aplicación principal es llevar a cabo tareas rutinarias o peligrosas para el piloto como, por ejemplo, extinción de incendios, evaluación de riesgo químico o vigilancia de lugares de acceso restringido. Se realiza un estudio del movimiento del vehículo para obtener su modelo dinámico. A partir de las ecuaciones que describen su movimiento, se realiza una simulación numérica del vehículo. Se incorpora el controlador diseñado y se evalúa su funcionamiento. Finalmente, se implementa el sistema en un microcontrolador.

On sliding mode control ofhydraulic servo systems and a manipulator

The aim of the study is to developa novel robust controller based on sliding mode control technique for the hydraulic servo system with flexible load and for a flexible manipulator with the lift and jib hydraulic actuators. For the purpose of general control design, a dynamic model is derived describing the principle physical behavior for both the hydraulic servo system and the flexible hydraulic manipulator. The mechanism of hydraulic servo systems is described by basic mathematical equations of fluid powersystems and the dynamics of flexible manipulator is modeled by the assumed modemethod. The controller is constructed so as to track desired trajectories in the presence of model imprecision. Experimental and simulation results demonstratethat sliding mode control has benefits which can be used to guarantee stabilityin uncertain systems and improve the system performance and load tolerance.

The persistence of return on assets: differences between industries and differences between firms

This study offers a statistical analysis of the persistence of annual profits across a sample of firms from different European Union (EU) countries. To this end, a Bayesian dynamic model has been used which enables the annual behaviour of those profits to be broken down into a permanent structural component on the one hand and a transitory component on the other, while also distinguishing between general effects affecting the industry as a whole to which each firm belongs and specific effects affecting each firm in particular. This break down enables the relative importance of those fundamental components to be evaluated. The data analysed come from a sample of 23,293 firms in EU countries selected from the AMADEUS data-base. The period analysed ran from 1999 to 2007 and 21 sectors were analysed, chosen in such a way that there was a sufficiently large number of firms in each country*sector combination for the industry effects to be estimated accurately enough for meaningful comparisons to be made by sector and country. The analysis has been conducted by sector and by country from a Bayesian perspective, thus making the study more flexible and realistic since the estimates obtained do not depend on asymptotic results. In general terms, the study finds that, although the industry effects are significant, more important are the specific effects. That importance varies depending on the sector or the country in which the firm carries out its activity. The influence of firm effects accounts for more than 90% of total variation and display a significantly lower degree of persistence, with adjustment speeds oscillating around 51.1%. However, this pattern is not homogeneous but depends on the sector and country analysed. Industry effects have a more marginal importance, being significantly more persistent, with adjustment speeds oscillating around 10% with this degree of persistence being more homogeneous at both country and sector levels.

Arvometallien selektiivinen erottaminen kloridiliuoksista

Työssä tutkittiin jalometallien selektiivistä erottamista kloridiliuoksista synteettisten polymeerihartsien avulla. Laboratoriokokeissa keskityttiin tutkimaan kullan erottamista hydrofiilisen polymetakrylaattipohjaisen adsorbentin avulla. Lähtökohtana oli platinarikaste, joka sisälsi kullan lisäksi platinaa, palladiumia, hopeaa, kuparia, rautaa, vismuttia, seleeniä ja telluuria. Mittauksissa tutkittiin eri metallien ja puolimetallien adsorptiota hartsiin tasapaino-, kinetiikka- ja kolonnikokeilla. Työssä käytettiin myös adsorption simulointiin monikomponenttierotuksen dynaamiseen mallintamiseen tarkoitettua tietokoneohjelmaa, johon tarvittavat parametrit estimoitiin kokeellisen datan avulla. Tasapainokokeet yhtä metallia sisältäneistä liuoksista osoittivat, että hartsi adsorboi tehokkaasti kultaa kaikissa tutkituissa suolahappopitoisuuksissa (1-6 M). Kulta muodostaa hartsiin hyvin adsorboituvia tetrakloroauraatti(III)ioneja, [AuCl4]-, jotka ovat erittäin stabiileja pieniin kloridipitoisuuksiin saakka. Suolahappopitoisuudella oli merkitystä ainoastaan raudan adsorptioon, joka kasvoi huomattavasti suolahappopitoisuuden noustessa johtuen raudan taipumuksesta muodostaa hyvin adsorboituvia [FeCl4]--ioneja väkevissä suolahappopitoisuuksissa. Muiden tutkittujen alkuaineiden adsorptiot jäivät alhaisiksi kaikilla suolahappopitoisuuksilla. Rikasteliuoksella tehdyt tasapainokokeet osoittivat, että adsorptiokapasiteetti kullalle riippuu voimakkaasti muista läsnäolevista komponenteista. Kilpaileva adsorptio kuvattiin Langmuir-Freundlich-isotermillä. Kolonnikokeet osoittivat, että hartsi adsorboi kullan lisäksi hieman myös rautaa ja telluuria, jotka saatiin kuitenkin eluoitua hartsista täysin 5 M suolahappopesulla ja sitä seuraavalla 1 M suolahappopesulla. Tehokkaaksi liuokseksi kullan desorboimiseen osoittautui asetonin ja 1 M suolahapon seos. Kolonnierotuksen eri vaiheet pystyttiin tyydyttävästi kuvaamaan simulointimallilla.

Kuplaleijupetikattilan dynaaminen malli

Työn tavoitteena oli rakentaa dynaaminen malli kuplaleijupetikattilasta APROS- ohjelmistoa käyttäen. Tarkoituksena oli selvittää kyseisen ohjelmiston soveltuvuutta nykyaikaisen voimalaitoskattilan mallintamiseen. Mallin rakentamisen perustana oli toiminnassa oleva kuplaleijupetillä varustettu voimalaitoskattila. Näin oli käytettävissä riittävä määrä aineistoa mallin rakenteen luomiseen ja valmiin mallin sovittamiseen. Työ on luonteeltaan kaksiosainen. Ensimmäinen osa on kirjallisuusosa, jossa esitellään mallinnuksen kohteena olevaa tekniikkaa. Tekniikasta annetaan kuva esittelemällä perusteoria ja käytännön sovellukset. Lisäksi esitellään kattilassa käytettävät polttoaineet. Kirjallisuusosassa esitellään myös käytettävä APROS-mallinnusohjelmisto. Ohjelmiston laskennan perusteita ei erikseen esitellä. Ne pohjautuvat yleiseen termodynamiikan ja lämmönsiirron teoriaan. Ohjelmiston käytöstä ja sen toiminnasta yleensä annetaan yleisluontoinen selostus. Toisessa osassa mallin rakentaminen esitellään vaiheittain ja siinä järjestyksessä kuin se mallia rakennettaessa tehtiin. Kattilamallin toimintaa testattiin vertaamalla kattilan mitoitustilaan viritettyä mallia takuukokeiden mittaustuloksiin. Lisäksi testattiin mallin toimintaa osakuormalla koeajojakson soveltuvasta osakuormatilasta saatuihin mittausarvoihin. Mallin jatkokehitys pitää sisällään laajamittaisen automaation luomisen ja erilaisten muutostilojen testaamista mallilla.

In-Vessel Penetrator -käärmerobotin mallinnus ADAMS-ohjelmistolla

Työn tavoitteena oli muodostaa virtuaaliprototyyppi fuusioreaktorin huollossa käytettävästä IVP-robotista. Työssä mallinnettiin robotin mekaniikka joustavana sekä toimilaitteiden ja käyttöjen dynaamiset ominaisuudet valmistajien esitietojen ja mitoitustietojen perusteella. Käyttöjen ja mekaniikan mallit yhdistettiin ADAMS-ohjelmistossa. Mekaanisten joustojen mallinnuksessa sekä verifioinnissa käytettiin apuna ANSYS –ohjelmistoa. Virtuaaliprototyypin toimivuudesta varmistuttiin vertaamalla sitä robotin suunnittelutietoihin ja fyysiseen prototyyppiin. Robotin ohjauksessa käytettävän P-säätäjän vaikutusta tutkittiin eri vahvistuksen arvoilla sekä verrattiin mekaanisia vasteita fyysisen prototyypin dynaamisiin testeihin. Esimerkkinä robotin käyttäytymisestä todellisessa tilanteessa simuloitiin sen ajoa reaktoriin. Toteutetun simulointimallin todettiin vastaavan rakenteeltaan sekä siinä esiintyvien voimien osalta suunnitelmien mukaista konstruktiota. Käytetyillä parametreilla se toteutti hyvin robotille asetetut nopeusvaatimukset.

Self-accelerating dolomite-for-calcite replacement: Self-organized dynamics of burial dolomitization and associated mineralization

A new dynamic model of dolomitization predicts a multitude of textural, paragenetic, geochemical and other properties of burial dolomites. The model is based on two postulates, (1) that the dolomitizing brine is Mg-rich but under saturated with both calcite and dolomite, and (2) that the dolomite-for-calcite replacement happens not by dissolution-precipitation as usually assumed, but by dolomite-growth-driven pressure solution of the calcite host. Crucially, the dolomite-for-calcite replacement turns out to be self-accelerating via Ca2 : the Ca2 released by each replacement increment accelerates the rate of the next, and so on. As a result, both pore-fluid Ca2 and replacement rate grow exponentially.

On the Analysis and Control of a Linear Synchronous Servomotor with a Flexible Load

Industry's growing need for higher productivity is placing new demands on mechanisms connected with electrical motors, because these can easily lead to vibration problems due to fast dynamics. Furthermore, the nonlinear effects caused by a motor frequently reduce servo stability, which diminishes the controller's ability to predict and maintain speed. Hence, the flexibility of a mechanism and its control has become an important area of research. The basic approach in control system engineering is to assume that the mechanism connected to a motor is rigid, so that vibrations in the tool mechanism, reel, gripper or any apparatus connected to the motor are not taken into account. This might reduce the ability of the machine system to carry out its assignment and shorten the lifetime of the equipment. Nonetheless, it is usually more important to know how the mechanism, or in other words the load on the motor, behaves. A nonlinear load control method for a permanent magnet linear synchronous motor is developed and implemented in the thesis. The purpose of the controller is to track a flexible load to the desired velocity reference as fast as possible and without awkward oscillations. The control method is based on an adaptive backstepping algorithm with its stability ensured by the Lyapunov stability theorem. As a reference controller for the backstepping method, a hybrid neural controller is introduced in which the linear motor itself is controlled by a conventional PI velocity controller and the vibration of the associated flexible mechanism is suppressed from an outer control loop using a compensation signal from a multilayer perceptron network. To avoid the local minimum problem entailed in neural networks, the initial weights are searched for offline by means of a differential evolution algorithm. The states of a mechanical system for controllers are estimated using the Kalman filter. The theoretical results obtained from the control design are validated with the lumped mass model for a mechanism. Generalization of the mechanism allows the methods derived here to be widely implemented in machine automation. The control algorithms are first designed in a specially introduced nonlinear simulation model and then implemented in the physical linear motor using a DSP (Digital Signal Processor) application. The measurements prove that both controllers are capable of suppressing vibration, but that the backstepping method is superior to others due to its accuracy of response and stability properties.

Bien-être et croyance en un monde juste en ex-Yougoslavie: traces laissées par les guerres et la précarité socio-économique

RÉSUMÉ En combinant la perspective du parcours de vie à la théorie du stress et selon une approche psychosociale, cette thèse montre comment les expériences individuelles et collectives de victimisation ont marqué les parcours de vie, les croyances et le bien-être d'une cohorte de jeunes adultes ayant traversé les guerres en ex-Yougoslavie. Le premier article applique des analyses de courbes de croissance à classes latentes et dégage différentes trajectoires d'exclusion entre 1990 et 2006. L'analyse de ces trajectoires met en évidence les intersections entre vies individuelles, contexte et temps socio-historique et démontre que les expériences de guerre et les périodes d'exclusion socio-économique laissent des traces sur le bien-être à long terme. Les deuxième et troisième articles montrent que la croyance en un monde juste est ébranlée suite à des expériences de précarité socio-économique et de victimisation dues à la guerre au niveau individuel et contextuel. Un effet curvilinéaire et des interactions entre les niveaux indiquent que ces relations varient en fonction de l'intensité de la victimisation au niveau contextuel. Des effets de récence sont aussi relevés. Le quatrième article démontre que l'impact négatif de la victimisation sur le bien-être est en partie expliqué par un effritement de la croyance en un monde juste. De plus, si les individus qui croient davantage en un monde juste sont plus satisfaits de leur vie, la force de ce lien varie en fonction du niveau de victimisation dans certains contextes. Cette thèse présente un modèle multiniveaux dynamique dans lequel la croyance en un monde juste n'exerce plus le rôle de ressource personnelle stable mais s'érode face à la victimisation, entraînant ainsi un bien-être moindre. Ce travail souligne l'importance d'articuler les niveaux individuels et contextuels et de considérer la dimension temporelle pour expliquer les liens entre victimisation, croyance en un monde juste et bien-être. ABSTRACT By combining a life course perspective to stress theory and according to a psychosocial approach, this thesis shows how individual and collective victimisation experiences marked the life course, beliefs and well-being of a cohort of young adults who lived through the wars in former Yugoslavia. In the first article, latent class growth analyses were applied to identify different exclusion trajectories between 1990 and 2006. The analysis of these trajectories highlighted the intersections between individual lives, socio-historical context and time and demonstrated that experiences of war and socio-economic exclusion leave traces on well-being in the long term. The second and third articles showed that the belief in a just world was shattered due to socio-economic precariousness and war victimisation at individual and contextual levels. A curvilinear effect and cross-level interactions indicated that these relations varied according to the intensity of victimisation at the contextual level. Time effects were also noted. The fourth article showed that the negative impact of victimisation on well-being was partly explained by an erosion of the belief in a just world. Furthermore, if high believers were more satisfied with their lives, the strength of this relation varied depending on the level of victimisation in particular contexts. This thesis presents a multilevel dynamic model in which the belief in a just world no longer exercises the role of a stable personal resource but erodes in the face of victimisation, leading to a lower well-being. This work stresses the importance of articulating individual and contextual levels as well as considering the temporal dimension to explain the links between victimisation, belief in a just world and well-being.

Combining Advanced Forecasting Methods with System Dynamics - the Case of Finnish Seaports

Seaports play an important part in the wellbeing of a nation. Many nations are highly dependent on foreign trade and most trade is done using sea vessels. This study is part of a larger research project, where a simulation model is required in order to create further analyses on Finnish macro logistical networks. The objective of this study is to create a system dynamic simulation model, which gives an accurate forecast for the development of demand of Finnish seaports up to 2030. The emphasis on this study is to show how it is possible to create a detailed harbor demand System Dynamic model with the help of statistical methods. The used forecasting methods were ARIMA (autoregressive integrated moving average) and regression models. The created simulation model gives a forecast with confidence intervals and allows studying different scenarios. The building process was found to be a useful one and the built model can be expanded to be more detailed. Required capacity for other parts of the Finnish logistical system could easily be included in the model.

A panel data analysis of FDI and informal labor markets

The objective of this paper is to examine whether informal labor markets affect the flows of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), and also whether this effect is similar in developed and developing countries. With this aim, different public data sources, such as the World Bank (WB), and the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) are used, and panel econometric models are estimated for a sample of 65 countries over a 14 year period (1996-2009). In addition, this paper uses a dynamic model as an extension of the analysis to establish whether such an effect exists and what its indicators and significance may be.