Comparison of HRT-3 glaucoma probability score and subjective stereophotograph assessment for prediction of progression in glaucoma

PURPOSE. To assess whether baseline Glaucoma Probability Score (GPS; HRT-3; Heidelberg Engineering, Dossenheim, Germany) results are predictive of progression in patients with suspected glaucoma. The GPS is a new feature of the confocal scanning laser ophthalmoscope that generates an operator-independent, three-dimensional model of the optic nerve head and gives a score for the probability that this model is consistent with glaucomatous damage. METHODS. The study included 223 patients with suspected glaucoma during an average follow-up of 63.3 months. Included subjects had a suspect optic disc appearance and/or elevated intraocular pressure, but normal visual fields. Conversion was defined as development of either repeatable abnormal visual fields or glaucomatous deterioration in the appearance of the optic disc during the study period. The association between baseline GPS and conversion was investigated by Cox regression models. RESULTS. Fifty-four (24.2%) eyes converted. In multivariate models, both higher values of GPS global and subjective stereophotograph assessment ( larger cup-disc ratio and glaucomatous grading) were predictive of conversion: adjusted hazard ratios (95% CI): 1.31 (1.15 - 1.50) per 0.1 higher global GPS, 1.34 (1.12 - 1.62) per 0.1 higher CDR, and 2.34 (1.22 - 4.47) for abnormal grading, respectively. No significant differences ( P > 0.05 for all comparisons) were found between the c-index values ( equivalent to area under ROC curve) for the multivariate models (0.732, 0.705, and 0.699, respectively). CONCLUSIONS. GPS values were predictive of conversion in our population of patients with suspected glaucoma. Further, they performed as well as subjective assessment of the optic disc. These results suggest that GPS could potentially replace stereophotograph as a tool for estimating the likelihood of conversion to glaucoma.

Sociodemographic Correlates of Transitions from Alcohol Use to Disorders and Remission in the Sao Paulo Megacity Mental Health Survey, Brazil

Aims: To evaluate sociodemographic correlates associated with transitions from alcohol use to disorders and remission in a Brazilian population. Methods: Data are from a probabilistic, multi-stage clustered sample of adult household residents in the Sao Paulo Metropolitan Area. Alcohol use, regular use (at least 12 drinks/year), DSM-IV abuse and dependence and remission from alcohol use disorders (AUDs) were assessed with the World Mental Health version of the Composite International Diagnostic Interview. Age of onset (AOO) distributions of the cumulative lifetime probability of each alcohol use stage were prepared with data obtained from 5037 subjects. Correlates of transitions were obtained from a subsample of 2942 respondents, whose time-dependent sociodemographic data were available. Results: Lifetime prevalences were 85.8% for alcohol use, 56.2% for regular use, 10.6% for abuse and 3.6% for dependence; 73.4 and 58.8% of respondents with lifetime abuse and dependence, respectively, had remitted. The number of sociodemographic correlates decreased from alcohol use to disorders. All transitions across alcohol use stages up to abuse were consistently associated with male gender, younger cohorts and lower education. Importantly, low education was a correlate for developing AUD and not remitting from dependence. Early AOO of first alcohol use was associated with the transition of regular use to abuse. Conclusion: The present study demonstrates that specific correlates differently contribute throughout alcohol use trajectory in a Brazilian population. It also reinforces the need of preventive programs focused on early initiation of alcohol use and high-risk individuals, in order to minimize the progression to dependence and improve remission from AUD.

Spontaneous Interblink Time Distributions in Patients with Graves` Orbitopathy and Normal Subjects

PURPOSE. To determine the shape of spontaneous interblink time interval distributions obtained in a long observation period in normal subjects and patients with Graves` orbitopathy. METHODS. The magnetic search coil technique was used to register the spontaneous blinking activity during 1 hour of video observation of two groups of 10 subjects each (normal controls aged 27-61 years, mean +/- SD = 46.0 +/- 13.6; patients with Graves` orbitopathy aged 33-61 years, mean +/- SD +/- 46.7 +/- 8.9). The spontaneous blink rate of each subject was calculated for the entire period of observation and for 56 five-minute bins. Histograms of the interblink time interval were plotted for each measurement of blink rate. RESULTS. Neither the overall mean blink rate (controls, 19.8 +/- 4.9; Graves`, 17.6 +/- 5.4) nor the interblink time (controls, 5.2 +/- 3.1, Graves`, 7.9 +/- 3.5) differed between the two groups. There was a large variation of both measurements when the 5-minute bins were considered. The interblink time distribution of all subjects was highly positively skewed when the 1-hour period was measured. A significant number of the 5-minute bin distributions deviated from the overall pattern and became symmetric. CONCLUSIONS. The normal blinking process is characterized by highly positively skewed interblink time distributions. This result means that most blinks have a short time interval, and occasionally a small number of blinks have long time intervals. The different patterns of distribution described in the early literature probably represent artifacts because of the small samples analyzed. (Invest Ophthalmol Vis Sci. 2011;52:3419-3424) DOI:10.1167/iovs.10-7060

Drosophila melanogaster lipins are tissue-regulated and developmentally regulated and present specific subcellular distributions

Lipins constitute a novel family of Mg2+-dependent phosphatidate phosphatases that catalyze the dephosphorylation of phosphatidic acid to yield diacylglycerol, an important intermediate in lipid metabolism and cell signaling. Whereas a single lipin is detected in less complex organisms, in mammals there are distinct lipin isoforms and paralogs that are differentially expressed among tissues. Compatible with organism tissue complexity, we show that the single Drosophila Lpin1 ortholog (CG8709, here named DmLpin) expresses at least three isoforms (DmLpinA, DmLpinK and DmLpinJ) in a temporal and spatially regulated manner. The highest levels of lipin in the fat body, where DmLpinA and DmLpinK are expressed, correlate with the highest levels of triacylglycerol (TAG) measured in this tissue. DmLpinK is the most abundant isoform in the central nervous system, where TAG levels are significantly lower than in the fat body. In the testis, where TAG levels are even lower, DmLpinJ is the predominant isoform. Together, these data suggest that DmLpinA might be the isoform that is mainly involved in TAG production, and that DmLpinK and DmLpinJ could perform other cellular functions. In addition, we demonstrate by immunofluorescence that lipins are most strongly labeled in the perinuclear region of the fat body and ventral ganglion cells. In visceral muscles of the larval midgut and adult testis, lipins present a sarcomeric distribution. In the ovary chamber, the lipin signal is concentrated in the internal rim of the ring canal. These specific subcellular localizations of the Drosophila lipins provide the basis for future investigations on putative novel cellular functions of this protein family.

Quasi-stationarity in populations that are subject to large-scale mortality or emigration

We shall examine a model, first studied by Brockwell et al. [Adv Appl Probab 14 (1982) 709.], which can be used to describe the longterm behaviour of populations that are subject to catastrophic mortality or emigration events. Populations can suffer dramatic declines when disease, such as an introduced virus, affects the population, or when food shortages occur, due to overgrazing or fluctuations in rainfall. However, perhaps surprisingly, such populations can survive for long periods and, although they may eventually become extinct, they can exhibit an apparently stationary regime. It is useful to be able to model this behaviour. This is particularly true of the ecological examples that motivated the present study, since, in order to properly manage these populations, it is necessary to be able to predict persistence times and to estimate the conditional probability distribution of population size. We shall see that although our model predicts eventual extinction, the time till extinction can be long and the stationary exhibited by these populations over any reasonable time scale can be explained using a quasistationary distribution. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Models involving two inverse Weibull distributions

In this paper, we look at three models (mixture, competing risk and multiplicative) involving two inverse Weibull distributions. We study the shapes of the density and failure-rate functions and discuss graphical methods to determine if a given data set can be modelled by one of these models. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Derivation of the probability distribution function for the local density of states of a disordered quantum wire via the replica trick and supersymmetry

We consider the statistical properties of the local density of states of a one-dimensional Dirac equation in the presence of various types of disorder with Gaussian white-noise distribution. It is shown how either the replica trick or supersymmetry can be used to calculate exactly all the moments of the local density of states.' Careful attention is paid to how the results change if the local density of states is averaged over atomic length scales. For both the replica trick and supersymmetry the problem is reduced to finding the ground state of a zero-dimensional Hamiltonian which is written solely in terms of a pair of coupled spins which are elements of u(1, 1). This ground state is explicitly found for the particular case of the Dirac equation corresponding to an infinite metallic quantum wire with a single conduction channel. The calculated moments of the local density of states agree with those found previously by Al'tshuler and Prigodin [Sov. Phys. JETP 68 (1989) 198] using a technique based on recursion relations for Feynman diagrams. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Calculation of product state distributions from resonance decay via Lanczos subspace filter diagonalization: Application to HO2

Resonance phenomena associated with the unimolecular dissociation of HO2 have been investigated quantum-mechanically by the Lanczos homogeneous filter diagonalization (LHFD) method. The calculated resonance energies, rates (widths), and product state distributions are compared to results from an autocorrelation function-based filter diagonalization (ACFFD) method. For calculating resonance wave functions via ACFFD, an analytical expression for the expansion coefficients of the modified Chebyshev polynomials is introduced. Both dissociation rates and product state distributions of O-2 show strong fluctuations, indicating the dissociation of HO2 is essentially irregular. (C) 2001 American Institute of Physics.

Cavity QED analog of the harmonic-oscillator probability distribution function and quantum collapses

We establish a connection between the simple harmonic oscillator and a two-level atom interacting with resonant, quantized cavity and strong driving fields, which suggests an experiment to measure the harmonic-oscillator's probability distribution function. To achieve this, we calculate the Autler-Townes spectrum by coupling the system to a third level. We find that there are two different regions of the atomic dynamics depending on the ratio of the: Rabi frequency Omega (c) of the cavity field to that of the Rabi frequency Omega of the driving field. For Omega (c)

A mixture model-based approach to the clustering of microarray expression data

Motivation: This paper introduces the software EMMIX-GENE that has been developed for the specific purpose of a model-based approach to the clustering of microarray expression data, in particular, of tissue samples on a very large number of genes. The latter is a nonstandard problem in parametric cluster analysis because the dimension of the feature space (the number of genes) is typically much greater than the number of tissues. A feasible approach is provided by first selecting a subset of the genes relevant for the clustering of the tissue samples by fitting mixtures of t distributions to rank the genes in order of increasing size of the likelihood ratio statistic for the test of one versus two components in the mixture model. The imposition of a threshold on the likelihood ratio statistic used in conjunction with a threshold on the size of a cluster allows the selection of a relevant set of genes. However, even this reduced set of genes will usually be too large for a normal mixture model to be fitted directly to the tissues, and so the use of mixtures of factor analyzers is exploited to reduce effectively the dimension of the feature space of genes. Results: The usefulness of the EMMIX-GENE approach for the clustering of tissue samples is demonstrated on two well-known data sets on colon and leukaemia tissues. For both data sets, relevant subsets of the genes are able to be selected that reveal interesting clusterings of the tissues that are either consistent with the external classification of the tissues or with background and biological knowledge of these sets.

Model specification tests in nonparametric stochastic regression models

In this paper, we consider testing for additivity in a class of nonparametric stochastic regression models. Two test statistics are constructed and their asymptotic distributions are established. We also conduct a small sample study for one of the test statistics through a simulated example. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science (USA).

Estimating and evaluating the statistics of gapped local-alignment scores

We present a novel maximum-likelihood-based algorithm for estimating the distribution of alignment scores from the scores of unrelated sequences in a database search. Using a new method for measuring the accuracy of p-values, we show that our maximum-likelihood-based algorithm is more accurate than existing regression-based and lookup table methods. We explore a more sophisticated way of modeling and estimating the score distributions (using a two-component mixture model and expectation maximization), but conclude that this does not improve significantly over simply ignoring scores with small E-values during estimation. Finally, we measure the classification accuracy of p-values estimated in different ways and observe that inaccurate p-values can, somewhat paradoxically, lead to higher classification accuracy. We explain this paradox and argue that statistical accuracy, not classification accuracy, should be the primary criterion in comparisons of similarity search methods that return p-values that adjust for target sequence length.

Calculation of resonances and product state distributions for the unimolecular dissociation of H2S

Resonance phenomena associated with the unimolecular dissociation of H2S --> SH + H have been investigated quantum mechanically by the Lanczos homogeneous filter diagonalization method using a newly developed potential energy surface (J. Chem. Phys. 2001, 114, 320). Resonance energies, widths (rates), and product state distributions have been obtained. Both dissociation rates and product state distributions of SH show, strong fluctuations, indicating that the dissociation of H2S is essentially irregular. Statistical analysis of neighboring level spacing and width distributions also confirms this behavior. The dissociation rates and product state distributions are compared to the predictions of quantum phase space theory.