Two dynamic discrete choice estimation problems and simulation method solutions

This paper considers two problems that frequently arise in dynamic discrete choice problems but have not received much attention with regard to simulation methods. The first problem is how to simulate unbiased simulators of probabilities conditional on past history. The second is simulating a discrete transition probability model when the underlying dependent variable is really continuous. Both methods work well relative to reasonable alternatives in the application discussed. However, in both cases, for this application, simpler methods also provide reasonably good results.

Discrete phase-locked loop systems and spreadsheets

This paper demonstrates the use of a spreadsheet in exploring non-linear difference equations that describe digital control systems used in radio engineering, communication and computer architecture. These systems, being the focus of intensive studies of mathematicians and engineers over the last 40 years, may exhibit extremely complicated behaviour interpreted in contemporary terms as transition from global asymptotic stability to chaos through period-doubling bifurcations. The authors argue that embedding advanced mathematical ideas in the technological tool enables one to introduce fundamentals of discrete control systems in tertiary curricula without learners having to deal with complex machinery that rigorous mathematical methods of investigation require. In particular, in the appropriately designed spreadsheet environment, one can effectively visualize a qualitative difference in the behviour of systems with different types of non-linear characteristic.

Disentangling the cognitive components supporting Austin Maze performance in left versus right temporal lobe epilepsy

Neuropsychological tests requiring patients to find a path through a maze can be used to assess visuospatial memory performance in temporal lobe pathology, particularly in the hippocampus. Alternatively, they have been used as a task sensitive to executive function in patients with frontal lobe damage. We measured performance on the Austin Maze in patients with unilateral left and right temporal lobe epilepsy (TLE), with and without hippocampal sclerosis, compared to healthy controls. Performance was correlated with a number of other neuropsychological tests to identify the cognitive components that may be associated with poor Austin Maze performance. Patients with right TLE were significantly impaired on the Austin Maze task relative to patients with left TLE and controls, and error scores correlated with their performance on the Block Design task. The performance of patients with left TLE was also impaired relative to controls; however, errors correlated with performance on tests of executive function and delayed recall. The presence of hippocampal sclerosis did not have an impact on maze performance. A discriminant function analysis indicated that the Austin Maze alone correctly classified 73.5% of patients as having right TLE. In summary, impaired performance on the Austin Maze task is more suggestive of right than left TLE; however, impaired performance on this visuospatial task does not necessarily involve the hippocampus. The relationship of the Austin Maze task with other neuropsychological tests suggests that differential cognitive components may underlie performance decrements in right versus left TLE.

An experimental based assessment of the deviation of the bearing characteristic frequencies

Slippage in the contact roller-races has always played a central role in the field of diagnostics of rolling element bearings. Due to this phenomenon, vibrations triggered by a localized damage are not strictly periodic and therefore not detectable by means of common spectral functions as power spectral density or discrete Fourier transform. Due to the strong second order cyclostationary component, characterizing these signals, techniques such as cyclic coherence, its integrated form and square envelope spectrum have proven to be effective in a wide range of applications. An expert user can easily identify a damage and its location within the bearing components by looking for particular patterns of peaks in the output of the selected cyclostationary tool. These peaks will be found in the neighborhood of specific frequencies, that can be calculated in advance as functions of the geometrical features of the bearing itself. Unfortunately the non-periodicity of the vibration signal is not the only consequence of the slippage: often it also involves a displacement of the damage characteristic peaks from the theoretically expected frequencies. This issue becomes particularly important in the attempt to develop highly automated algorithms for bearing damage recognition, and, in order to correctly set thresholds and tolerances, a quantitative description of the magnitude of the above mentioned deviations is needed. This paper is aimed at identifying the dependency of the deviations on the different operating conditions. This has been possible thanks to an extended experimental activity performed on a full scale bearing test rig, able to reproduce realistically the operating and environmental conditions typical of an industrial high power electric motor and gearbox. The importance of load will be investigated in detail for different bearing damages. Finally some guidelines on how to cope with such deviations will be given, accordingly to the expertise obtained in the experimental activity.

A coupled SPH-DEM model for micro-scale structural deformations of plant cells during drying

A single plant cell was modeled with smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH) and a discrete element method (DEM) to study the basic micromechanics that govern the cellular structural deformations during drying. This two-dimensional particle-based model consists of two components: a cell fluid model and a cell wall model. The cell fluid was approximated to a highly viscous Newtonian fluid and modeled with SPH. The cell wall was treated as a stiff semi-permeable solid membrane with visco-elastic properties and modeled as a neo-Hookean solid material using a DEM. Compared to existing meshfree particle-based plant cell models, we have specifically introduced cell wall–fluid attraction forces and cell wall bending stiffness effects to address the critical shrinkage characteristics of the plant cells during drying. Also, a moisture domain-based novel approach was used to simulate drying mechanisms within the particle scheme. The model performance was found to be mainly influenced by the particle resolution, initial gap between the outermost fluid particles and wall particles and number of particles in the SPH influence domain. A higher order smoothing kernel was used with adaptive smoothing length to improve the stability and accuracy of the model. Cell deformations at different states of cell dryness were qualitatively and quantitatively compared with microscopic experimental findings on apple cells and a fairly good agreement was observed with some exceptions. The wall–fluid attraction forces and cell wall bending stiffness were found to be significantly improving the model predictions. A detailed sensitivity analysis was also done to further investigate the influence of wall–fluid attraction forces, cell wall bending stiffness, cell wall stiffness and the particle resolution. This novel meshfree based modeling approach is highly applicable for cellular level deformation studies of plant food materials during drying, which characterize large deformations.

Investigation of corona sources in high voltage power lines

This paper describes the results of experiments made in the vicinity of EHV overhead lines to investigate sources of clouds of charged particles using simultaneously-recording arrays of electric field meters to measure direct electric fields produced under ion clouds. E-field measurements, made at one metre above ground level, are correlated with wind speed and direction, and with measurements from ionisation counters and audible corona effects to identify possible positions of sources of corona on adjacent power lines. Measurements made in dry conditions on EHV lines in flat remote locations with no adjacent buildings or large vegetation indicate the presence of discrete ion sources associated with high stress points on some types of line hardware such as connectors and conductor spacers. Faulty line components such as insulators and line fittings are also found to be a possible source of ion clouds.

Can larger cemented femoral components reduce periprosthetic fractures?

Introduction The risk for late periprosthetic fractures is higher in patients treated for a neck of femur fracture compared to those treated for osteoarthritis. It has been hypothesised that osteopenia and consequent decreased stiffness of the proximal femur are responsible for this. We investigated if a femoral component with a bigger body would increase the torque to failure in a biaxially loaded composite sawbone model. Method A biomechanical composite sawbone model was used. Two different body sizes (Exeter 44-1 vs 44-4) of a polished tapered cemented stem were implanted by an experienced surgeon, in 7 sawbones each and loaded at 40 deg/s internal rotation until failure. Torque to fracture and fracture energy were measured using a biaxial materials testing device (Instron 8874). Data are non-parametric and tested with Mann-Whitney U-test. Results The mean torque load to fracture was 154.1 NM (SD 4.4) for the 44-1 stem and 229 NM (SD10.9) for the 44-4 stem (p = 0.01). The mean fracture energy was 9.6 J (SD1.2) for the 44-1 stem and 17.2 J (SD2.0) for the 44-4 stem (p = 0.14). Conclusion the use of a large body polished tapered cemented stem for neck of femur fractures increases the torque to failure in a biomechanical model and therefore is likely to reduce late periprosthetic fracture risk in this vulnerable cohort.

Decision support system for age-related macular degeneration using discrete wavelet transform

Age-related macular degeneration (AMD) affects the central vision and subsequently may lead to visual loss in people over 60 years of age. There is no permanent cure for AMD, but early detection and successive treatment may improve the visual acuity. AMD is mainly classified into dry and wet type; however, dry AMD is more common in aging population. AMD is characterized by drusen, yellow pigmentation, and neovascularization. These lesions are examined through visual inspection of retinal fundus images by ophthalmologists. It is laborious, time-consuming, and resource-intensive. Hence, in this study, we have proposed an automated AMD detection system using discrete wavelet transform (DWT) and feature ranking strategies. The first four-order statistical moments (mean, variance, skewness, and kurtosis), energy, entropy, and Gini index-based features are extracted from DWT coefficients. We have used five (t test, Kullback–Lieber Divergence (KLD), Chernoff Bound and Bhattacharyya Distance, receiver operating characteristics curve-based, and Wilcoxon) feature ranking strategies to identify optimal feature set. A set of supervised classifiers namely support vector machine (SVM), decision tree, k -nearest neighbor ( k -NN), Naive Bayes, and probabilistic neural network were used to evaluate the highest performance measure using minimum number of features in classifying normal and dry AMD classes. The proposed framework obtained an average accuracy of 93.70 %, sensitivity of 91.11 %, and specificity of 96.30 % using KLD ranking and SVM classifier. We have also formulated an AMD Risk Index using selected features to classify the normal and dry AMD classes using one number. The proposed system can be used to assist the clinicians and also for mass AMD screening programs.

Real-time decision making by driverless city vehicles : a discrete event driven approach

This thesis addresses the topic of real-time decision making by driverless (autonomous) city vehicles, i.e. their ability to make appropriate driving decisions in non-simplified urban traffic conditions. After addressing the state of research, and explaining the research question, the thesis presents solutions for the subcomponents which are relevant for decision making with respect to information input (World Model), information output (Driving Maneuvers), and the real-time decision making process. TheWorld Model is a software component developed to fulfill the purpose of collecting information from perception and communication subsystems, maintaining an up-to-date view of the vehicle’s environment, and providing the required input information to the Real-Time Decision Making subsystem in a well-defined, and structured way. The real-time decision making process consists of two consecutive stages. While the first decision making stage uses a Petri net to model the safetycritical selection of feasible driving maneuvers, the second stage uses Multiple Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) methods to select the most appropriate driving maneuver, focusing on fulfilling objectives related to efficiency and comfort. The complex task of autonomous driving is subdivided into subtasks, called driving maneuvers, which represent the output (i.e. decision alternatives) of the real-time decision making process. Driving maneuvers are considered as implementations of closed-loop control algorithms, each capable of maneuvering the autonomous vehicle in a specific traffic situation. Experimental tests in both a 3D simulation and real-world experiments attest that the developed approach is suitable to deal with the complexity of real-world urban traffic situations.

Interactions of ingested food, beverage, and tobacco components involving human cytochrome P4501A2, 2A6, 2E1, and 3A4 enzymes

Human cytochrome P450 (P450) enzymes are involved in the oxidation of natural products found in foods, beverages, and tobacco products and their catalytic activities can also be modulated by components of the materials. The microsomal activation of aflatoxin B1 to the exo-3,9-epoxide is stimulated by flavone and 7,8-benzoflavone, and attenuated by the flavonoid naringenin, a major component of grapefruit. P4502E1 has been demonstrated to play a potentially major role in the activation of a number of very low-molecular weight cancer suspects, including ethyl carbamate (urethan), which is present in alcoholic beverages and particularly stone brandies. The enzyme (P4502E1) is also known to be inducible by ethanol. Tobacco contains a large number of potential carcinogens. In human liver microsomes a significant role for P4501A2 can be demonstrated in the activation of cigarette smoke condensate. Some of the genotoxicity may be due to arylamines. P4501A2 is also inhibited by components of crude cigarette smoke condensate. The tobacco-specific nitrosamines are activated by a number of P450 enzymes. Of those known to be present in human liver, P4501A2, 2A6, and 2E1 can activate these nitrosamines to genotoxic products.

Enhancement of the chemoprotective enzymes glucuronosyl transferase and glutathione transferase in specific organs of the rat by the coffee components kahweol and cafestol

The coffee components kahweol and cafestol (K/C) have been reported to protect the colon and other organs of the rat against the formation of DNA adducts by 2-amino-1-methyl-6-phenylimidazo[4,5-b] pyridine (PhIP) and aflatoxin B1. PhIP is a cooked-food mutagen to which significant human exposure and a role in colon cancer etiology are attributed, and, interestingly, such cancers appear to develop at a lower rate in consumers of coffees with high amounts of K/C. Earlier studies in rodent liver have shown that a key role in the chemopreventive effect of K/C is likely to be due to the potential of these compounds to induce the detoxification of xenobiotics by glutathione transferase (GST) and to enhance the synthesis of the corresponding co-factor glutathione. However, mutagens like PhIP may also be detoxified by UDP-glucuronosyl transferase (UDPGT) for which data are lacking regarding a potential effect of K/C. Therefore, in the present study, we investigated the effect of K/C on UDPGT and, concomitantly, we studied overall GST and the pattern of individual GST classes, particularly GST-θ, which was not included in earlier experiments. In addition, we analyzed the organ-dependence of these potentially chemopreventive effects. K/C was fed to male F344 rats at 0.122% in the chow for 10 days. Enzyme activities in liver, kidney, lung, colon, salivary gland, pancreas, testis, heart and spleen were quantified using five characteristic substrates and the hepatic protein pattern of GST classes α, μ, and π was studied with affnity chromatography/HPLC. Our study showed that K/C is not only capable of increasing overall GST and GST classes α, μ, and π but also of enhancing UDGPT and GST-θ. All investigated K/C effects were strongest in liver and kidney, and some response was seen in lung and colon but none in the other organs. In summary, our results show that K/C treatment leads to a wide spectrum of increases in phase II detoxification enzymes. Notably, these effects occurred preferentially in the well perfused organs liver and kidney, which may thus not only contribute to local protection but also to anti-carcinogenesis in distant, less stimulated organs such as the colon.

Near infrared spectroscopy for rapid determination of Mankin score components : a potential tool for quantitative characterization of articular cartilage at surgery

PURPOSE The purpose of this study was to demonstrate the potential of near infrared (NIR) spectroscopy for characterizing the health and degenerative state of articular cartilage based on the components of the Mankin score. METHODS Three models of osteoarthritic degeneration induced in laboratory rats by anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) transection, meniscectomy (MSX), and intra-articular injection of monoiodoacetate (1 mg) (MIA) were used in this study. Degeneration was induced in the right knee joint; each model group consisted of 12 rats (N = 36). After 8 weeks, the animals were euthanized and knee joints were collected. A custom-made diffuse reflectance NIR probe of 5-mm diameter was placed on the tibial and femoral surfaces, and spectral data were acquired from each specimen in the wave number range of 4,000 to 12,500 cm(-1). After spectral data acquisition, the specimens were fixed and safranin O staining (SOS) was performed to assess disease severity based on the Mankin scoring system. Using multivariate statistical analysis, with spectral preprocessing and wavelength selection technique, the spectral data were then correlated to the structural integrity (SI), cellularity (CEL), and matrix staining (SOS) components of the Mankin score for all the samples tested. RESULTS ACL models showed mild cartilage degeneration, MSX models had moderate degeneration, and MIA models showed severe cartilage degenerative changes both morphologically and histologically. Our results reveal significant linear correlations between the NIR absorption spectra and SI (R(2) = 94.78%), CEL (R(2) = 88.03%), and SOS (R(2) = 96.39%) parameters of all samples in the models. In addition, clustering of the samples according to their level of degeneration, with respect to the Mankin components, was also observed. CONCLUSIONS NIR spectroscopic probing of articular cartilage can potentially provide critical information about the health of articular cartilage matrix in early and advanced stages of osteoarthritis (OA). CLINICAL RELEVANCE This rapid nondestructive method can facilitate clinical appraisal of articular cartilage integrity during arthroscopic surgery.

CORR Insights® : loss of cement-bone interlock in retrieved tibial components from total knee arthroplasties

Most surgeons cement the tibial component in total knee replacement surgery. Mid-term registry data from a number of countries, including those from the United Kingdom and Australia, support the excellent survivorship of cemented tibial components. In spite of this success, results can always be improved, and cementing technique can play a role. Cementing technique on the tibia is not standardized, and surgeons still differ about the best ways to deliver cement into the cancellous bone of the upper tibia. Questions remain regarding whether to use a gun or a syringe to inject the cement into the cancellous bone of the tibial plateau . The ideal cement penetration into the tibial plateau is debated, though most reports suggest that 4 mm to 10 mm is ideal. Thicker mantles are thought to be dangerous due to the risk of bone necrosis, but there is little in the literature to support this contention...

Using upper bounds on attainable discrimination to select discrete valued features

Selection of features that will permit accurate pattern classification is a difficult task. However, if a particular data set is represented by discrete valued features, it becomes possible to determine empirically the contribution that each feature makes to the discrimination between classes. This paper extends the discrimination bound method so that both the maximum and average discrimination expected on unseen test data can be estimated. These estimation techniques are the basis of a backwards elimination algorithm that can be use to rank features in order of their discriminative power. Two problems are used to demonstrate this feature selection process: classification of the Mushroom Database, and a real-world, pregnancy related medical risk prediction task - assessment of risk of perinatal death.