A multi-level analysis of innovation diffusion: The case of solar photovoltaic systems in Germany and the disillusion of grid parity

¿Suministrarán las fuentes de energía renovables toda la energía que el mundo necesita algún día? Algunos argumentan que sí, mientras que otros dicen que no. Sin embargo, en algunas regiones del mundo, la producción de electricidad a través de fuentes de energía renovables ya está en una etapa prometedora de desarrollo en la que su costo de generación de electricidad compite con fuentes de electricidad convencionales, como por ejemplo la paridad de red. Este logro ha sido respaldado por el aumento de la eficiencia de la tecnología, la reducción de los costos de producción y, sobre todo, los años de intervenciones políticas de apoyo financiero. La difusión de los sistemas solares fotovoltaicos (PV) en Alemania es un ejemplo relevante. Alemania no sólo es el país líder en términos de capacidad instalada de sistemas fotovoltaicos (PV) en todo el mundo, sino también uno de los países pioneros donde la paridad de red se ha logrado recientemente. No obstante, podría haber una nube en el horizonte. La tasa de difusión ha comenzado a declinar en muchas regiones. Además, las empresas solares locales – que se sabe son importantes impulsores de la difusión – han comenzado a enfrentar dificultades para manejar sus negocios. Estos acontecimientos plantean algunas preguntas importantes: ¿Es ésta una disminución temporal en la difusión? ¿Los adoptantes continuarán instalando sistemas fotovoltaicos? ¿Qué pasa con los modelos de negocio de las empresas solares locales? Con base en el caso de los sistemas fotovoltaicos en Alemania a través de un análisis multinivel y dos revisiones literarias complementarias, esta tesis doctoral extiende el debate proporcionando riqueza múltiple de datos empíricos en un conocimiento de contexto limitado. El primer análisis se basa en la perspectiva del adoptante, que explora el nivel "micro" y el proceso social que subyace a la adopción de los sistemas fotovoltaicos. El segundo análisis es una perspectiva a nivel de empresa, que explora los modelos de negocio de las empresas y sus roles impulsores en la difusión de los sistemas fotovoltaicos. El tercero análisis es una perspectiva regional, la cual explora el nivel "meso", el proceso social que subyace a la adopción de sistemas fotovoltaicos y sus técnicas de modelado. Los resultados incluyen implicaciones tanto para académicos como políticos, no sólo sobre las innovaciones en energía renovable relativas a la paridad de red, sino también, de manera inductiva, sobre las innovaciones ambientales impulsadas por las políticas que logren la competitividad de costes. ABSTRACT Will renewable energy sources supply all of the world energy needs one day? Some argue yes, while others say no. However, in some regions of the world, the electricity production through renewable energy sources is already at a promising stage of development at which their electricity generation costs compete with conventional electricity sources’, i.e., grid parity. This achievement has been underpinned by the increase of technology efficiency, reduction of production costs and, above all, years of policy interventions of providing financial support. The diffusion of solar photovoltaic (PV) systems in Germany is an important frontrunner case in point. Germany is not only the top country in terms of installed PV systems’ capacity worldwide but also one of the pioneer countries where the grid parity has recently been achieved. However, there might be a cloud on the horizon. The diffusion rate has started to decline in many regions. In addition, local solar firms – which are known to be important drivers of diffusion – have started to face difficulties to run their businesses. These developments raise some important questions: Is this a temporary decline on diffusion? Will adopters continue to install PV systems? What about the business models of the local solar firms? Based on the case of PV systems in Germany through a multi-level analysis and two complementary literature reviews, this PhD Dissertation extends the debate by providing multiple wealth of empirical details in a context-limited knowledge. The first analysis is based on the adopter perspective, which explores the “micro” level and the social process underlying the adoption of PV systems. The second one is a firm-level perspective, which explores the business models of firms and their driving roles in diffusion of PV systems. The third one is a regional perspective, which explores the “meso” level, i.e., the social process underlying the adoption of PV systems and its modeling techniques. The results include implications for both scholars and policymakers, not only about renewable energy innovations at grid parity, but also in an inductive manner, about policy-driven environmental innovations that achieve the cost competiveness.

Finite Element Model of the Innovation Diffusion: An Application to Photovoltaic Systems

This paper presents a Finite Element Model, which has been used for forecasting the diffusion of innovations in time and space. Unlike conventional models used in diffusion literature, the model considers the spatial heterogeneity. The implementation steps of the model are explained by applying it to the case of diffusion of photovoltaic systems in a local region in southern Germany. The applied model is based on a parabolic partial differential equation that describes the diffusion ratio of photovoltaic systems in a given region over time. The results of the application show that the Finite Element Model constitutes a powerful tool to better understand the diffusion of an innovation as a simultaneous space-time process. For future research, model limitations and possible extensions are also discussed.

“Coarse” stability and bifurcation analysis using time-steppers: A reaction-diffusion example

Evolutionary, pattern forming partial differential equations (PDEs) are often derived as limiting descriptions of microscopic, kinetic theory-based models of molecular processes (e.g., reaction and diffusion). The PDE dynamic behavior can be probed through direct simulation (time integration) or, more systematically, through stability/bifurcation calculations; time-stepper-based approaches, like the Recursive Projection Method [Shroff, G. M. & Keller, H. B. (1993) SIAM J. Numer. Anal. 30, 1099–1120] provide an attractive framework for the latter. We demonstrate an adaptation of this approach that allows for a direct, effective (“coarse”) bifurcation analysis of microscopic, kinetic-based models; this is illustrated through a comparative study of the FitzHugh-Nagumo PDE and of a corresponding Lattice–Boltzmann model.

Turbulent diffusion phase transition is due to singular energy spectrum.

The phase transition for turbulent diffusion, reported by Avellaneda and Majda [Avellaneda, M. & Majda, A. J. (1994) Philos. Trans. R. Soc. London A 346, 205-233, and several earlier papers], is traced to a modeling assumption in which the energy spectrum of the turbulent fluid is singularly dependent on the viscosity in the inertial range. Phenomenological models of turbulence and intermittency, by contrast, require that the energy spectrum be independent of the viscosity in the inertial range. When the energy spectrum is assumed to be consistent with the phenomenological models, there is no phase transition for turbulent diffusion.

Development of additional hazard assessment models /

"March 1977."

Diffusion modeling of percutaneous absorption kinetics: 3. Variable diffusion and partition coefficients, consequences for stratum corneum depth profiles and desorption kinetics

Stratum corneum (SC) desorption experiments have yielded higher calculated steady-state fluxes than those obtained by epidermal penetration studies. A possible explanation of this result is a variable diffusion or partition coefficient across the SC. We therefore developed the diffusion model for percutaneous penetration and desorption to study the effects of either a variable diffusion coefficient or variable partition coefficient in the SC over the diffusion path length. Steady-state flux, lag time, and mean desorption time were obtained from Laplace domain solutions. Numerical inversion of the Laplace domain solutions was used for simulations of solute concentration-distance and amount penetrated (desorbed)-time profiles. Diffusion and partition coefficients heterogeneity were examined using six different models. The effect of heterogeneity on predicted flux from desorption studies was compared with that obtained in permeation studies. Partition coefficient heterogeneity had a more profound effect on predicted fluxes than diffusion coefficient heterogeneity. Concentration-distance profiles show even larger dependence on heterogeneity, which is consistent with experimental tape-stripping data reported for clobetasol propionate and other solutes. The clobetasol propionate tape-stripping data were most consistent with the partition coefficient decreasing exponentially for half the SC and then becoming a constant for the remaining SC. (C) 2004 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Modelling oxygen diffusion and cell growth in a porous, vascularising scaffold for soft tissue engineering applications

Soft tissue engineering presents significant challenges compared to other tissue engineering disciplines such as bone, cartilage or skin engineering. The very high cell density in most soft tissues, often combined with large implant dimensions, means that the supply of oxygen is a critical factor in the success or failure of a soft tissue scaffold. A model is presented for oxygen diffusion in a 15-60 mm diameter dome-shaped scaffold fed by a blood vessel loop at its base. This model incorporates simple models for vascular growth, cell migration and the effect of cell density on the effective oxygen diffusivity. The model shows that the dynamic, homogeneous cell seeding method often employed in small-scale applications is not applicable in the case of larger scale scaffolds such as these. Instead, we propose the implantation of a small biopsy of tissue close to a blood supply within the scaffold as a technique more likely to be successful. Crown Copyright (c) 2005 Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

On the adoption decision and the intensity of use of complementary innovations: The intra firm diffusion of management practices across UK establishments

This paper contributes to the literature on the intra-firm diffusion of innovations by investigating the factors that affect the firm’s decision to adopt and use sets of complementary innovations. We define complementary innovations those innovations whose joint use generates super additive gains, i.e. the gain from the joint adoption is higher than the sum of the gains derived from the adoption of each innovation in isolation. From a theoretical perspective, we present a simple decision model, whereby the firm decides ‘whether’ and ‘how much’ to invest in each of the innovations under investigation based upon the expected profit gain from each possible combination of adoption and use. The model shows how the extent of complementarity among the innovations can affect the firm’s profit gains and therefore the likelihood that the firm will adopt these innovations jointly, rather than individually. From an empirical perspective, we focus on four sets of management practices, namely operating (OMP), monitoring (MMP), targets (TMP) and incentives (IMP) management practices. We show that these sets of practices, although to a different extent, are complementary to each other. Then, we construct a synthetic indicator of the depth of their use. The resulting intra-firm index is built to reflect not only the number of practices adopted but also the depth of their individual use and the extent of their complementarity. The empirical testing of the decision model is carried out using the evidence from the adoption behaviour of a sample of 1,238 UK establishments present in the 2004 Workplace Employment Relations Survey (WERS). Our empirical results show that the intra-firm profitability based model is a good model in that it can explain more of the variability of joint adoption than models based upon the variability of adoption and use of individual practices. We also investigate whether a number of firm specific and market characteristics by affecting the size of the gains (which the joint adoption of innovations can generate) may drive the intensity of use of the four innovations. We find that establishment size, whether foreign owned, whether exposed to an international market and the degree of homogeneity of the final product are important determinants of the intensity of the joint adoption of the four innovations. Most importantly, our results point out that the factors that the economics of innovation literature has been showing to affect the intensity of use of a technological innovation do also affect the intensity of use of sets of innovative management practices. However, they can explain only a small part of the diversity of their joint adoption use by the firms in the sample.

A longitudinal study of the diffusion of the ISO/IEC information resource dictionary system standard (IRDS.)

The IRDS standard is an international standard produced by the International Organisation for Standardisation (ISO). In this work the process for producing standards in formal standards organisations, for example the ISO, and in more informal bodies, for example the Object Management Group (OMG), is examined. This thesis examines previous models and classifications of standards. The previous models and classifications are then combined to produce a new classification. The IRDS standard is then placed in a class in the new model as a reference anticipatory standard. Anticipatory standards are standards which are developed ahead of the technology in order to attempt to guide the market. The diffusion of the IRDS is traced over a period of eleven years. The economic conditions which affect the diffusion of standards are examined, particularly the economic conditions which prevail in compatibility markets such as the IT and ICT markets. Additionally the consequences of the introduction of gateway or converter devices into a market where a standard has not yet been established is examined. The IRDS standard did not have an installed base and this hindered its diffusion. The thesis concludes that the IRDS standard was overtaken by new developments such as object oriented technologies and middleware. This was partly because of the slow development process of developing standards in traditional organisations which operate on a consensus basis and partly because the IRDS standard did not have an installed base. Also the rise and proliferation of middleware products resulted in exchange mechanisms becoming dominant rather than repository solutions. The research method used in this work is a longitudinal study of the development and diffusion of the ISO/EEC IRDS standard. The research is regarded as a single case study and follows the interpretative epistemological point of view.

Application of an Acceleration Scheme for an Age-Structured Diffusion Model

In this paper we propose an optimized algorithm, which is faster compared to previously described finite difference acceleration scheme, namely the Modified Super-Time-Stepping (Modified STS) scheme for age- structured population models with diffusion.

An examination of NPD models in the context of business models

Most prior new product diffusion (NPD) models do not specifically consider the role of the business model in the process. However, the context of NPD in today's market has been changed dramatically by the introduction of new business models. Through reinterpretation and extension, this paper empirically examines the feasibility of applying Bass-type NPD models to products that are commercialized by different business models. More specifically, the results and analysis of this study consider the subscription business model for service products, the freemium business model for digital products, and a pre-paid and post-paid business model that is widely used by mobile network providers. The paper offers new insights derived from implementing the models in real-life cases. It also highlights three themes for future research.

Increasing the Calculation Speed of an Acceleration Scheme for an Age-Structured Diffusion Model

Дойчин Бояджиев, Галена Пеловска - В статията се предлага оптимизиран алгоритъм, който е по-бърз в сравнение с по- рано описаната ускорена (модифицирана STS) диференчна схема за възрастово структуриран популационен модел с дифузия. Запазвайки апроксимацията на модифицирания STS алгоритъм, изчислителното времето се намаля почти два пъти. Това прави оптимизирания метод по-предпочитан за задачи с нелинейност или с по-висока размерност.

Mechanistic Models of Anti-HIV Microbicide Drug Delivery

A new modality for preventing HIV transmission is emerging in the form of topical microbicides. Some clinical trials have shown some promising results of these methods of protection while other trials have failed to show efficacy. Due to the relatively novel nature of microbicide drug transport, a rigorous, deterministic analysis of that transport can help improve the design of microbicide vehicles and understand results from clinical trials. This type of analysis can aid microbicide product design by helping understand and organize the determinants of drug transport and the potential efficacies of candidate microbicide products.

Microbicide drug transport is modeled as a diffusion process with convection and reaction effects in appropriate compartments. This is applied here to vaginal gels and rings and a rectal enema, all delivering the microbicide drug Tenofovir. Although the focus here is on Tenofovir, the methods established in this dissertation can readily be adapted to other drugs, given knowledge of their physical and chemical properties, such as the diffusion coefficient, partition coefficient, and reaction kinetics. Other dosage forms such as tablets and fiber meshes can also be modeled using the perspective and methods developed here.

The analyses here include convective details of intravaginal flows by both ambient fluid and spreading gels with different rheological properties and applied volumes. These are input to the overall conservation equations for drug mass transport in different compartments. The results are Tenofovir concentration distributions in time and space for a variety of microbicide products and conditions. The Tenofovir concentrations in the vaginal and rectal mucosal stroma are converted, via a coupled reaction equation, to concentrations of Tenofovir diphosphate, which is the active form of the drug that functions as a reverse transcriptase inhibitor against HIV. Key model outputs are related to concentrations measured in experimental pharmacokinetic (PK) studies, e.g. concentrations in biopsies and blood. A new measure of microbicide prophylactic functionality, the Percent Protected, is calculated. This is the time dependent volume of the entire stroma (and thus fraction of host cells therein) in which Tenofovir diphosphate concentrations equal or exceed a target prophylactic value, e.g. an EC50.

Results show the prophylactic potentials of the studied microbicide vehicles against HIV infections. Key design parameters for each are addressed in application of the models. For a vaginal gel, fast spreading at small volume is more effective than slower spreading at high volume. Vaginal rings are shown to be most effective if inserted and retained as close to the fornix as possible. Because of the long half-life of Tenofovir diphosphate, temporary removal of the vaginal ring (after achieving steady state) for up to 24h does not appreciably diminish Percent Protected. However, full steady state (for the entire stromal volume) is not achieved until several days after ring insertion. Delivery of Tenofovir to the rectal mucosa by an enema is dominated by surface area of coated mucosa and whether the interiors of rectal crypts are filled with the enema fluid. For the enema 100% Percent Protected is achieved much more rapidly than for vaginal products, primarily because of the much thinner epithelial layer of the mucosa. For example, 100% Percent Protected can be achieved with a one minute enema application, and 15 minute wait time.

Results of these models have good agreement with experimental pharmacokinetic data, in animals and clinical trials. They also improve upon traditional, empirical PK modeling, and this is illustrated here. Our deterministic approach can inform design of sampling in clinical trials by indicating time periods during which significant changes in drug concentrations occur in different compartments. More fundamentally, the work here helps delineate the determinants of microbicide drug delivery. This information can be the key to improved, rational design of microbicide products and their dosage regimens.

Stochastic Modeling of Reversible Biochemical Reaction-Diffusion Systems and High-Resolution Shock-Capturing Methods for Fluid Interfaces

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-08

Diffusion de la lumière dans les milieux complexes à base de cristaux liquides

Cette thèse présente les étapes de fabrication et les résultats de la caractérisation des modèles de tissu biologique fabriqués en utilisant des cristaux liquides et des polymères qui permettent de contrôler la diffusion et la transmission de la lumière par un champ électrique. Ce champ électrique entraîne un changement d’orientation des molécules de cristaux liquides, ce qui induit des variations locales de l’indice de réfraction dans ces matériaux. Nous avons utilisé ce contrôle de l’indice de réfraction pour contrôler le niveau de diffusion et de transmission dans différents types d’échantillons. Les échantillons utilisés sont faits a) de cristaux liquides purs, b) de sphères de polymère dans un environnement de cristaux liquides, c) de cristaux liquides ou de gouttelettes de cristaux liquides dans un environnement de polymère. Les travaux réalisés nous ont permis de proposer une méthode électro-optique pour simuler, à l’aide de cristaux liquides, des milieux diffusants tels que les tissus biologiques. Dans la recherche de modèles, nous avons montré qu’il est possible de contrôler, par la fréquence du champ électrique, des gouttelettes de cristaux liquides dispersées dans une matrice de polymère contenant des ions lithium. Une sensibilité sélective à la fréquence de la tension électrique appliquée en fonction de la taille des gouttelettes est observée. Par la suite, nous avons démontré l’effet de « quenching » interférentiel de la diffusion pour une sonde optique cohérente en étudiant des modèles non alignés (clustérisés) de cristaux liquides. Nous avons aussi démontré des applications potentielles de ce phénomène tel le filtrage en longueur d’onde par l’ajustement d’un champ électrique. Nous avons ensuite démontré que l’utilisation des cristaux liquides - dits « dual-frequency » - permet une modulation rapide des états ou des structures du matériau ainsi que de la transmission et de la diffusion de lumière de ce dernier. Enfin, nous avons aussi découvert que ces modèles peuvent être contrôlés pour retrouver le degré de polarisation de la lumière diffusée.