Experimental design and model construction algorithms for radial basis function networks

New construction algorithms for radial basis function (RBF) network modelling are introduced based on the A-optimality and D-optimality experimental design criteria respectively. We utilize new cost functions, based on experimental design criteria, for model selection that simultaneously optimizes model approximation, parameter variance (A-optimality) or model robustness (D-optimality). The proposed approaches are based on the forward orthogonal least-squares (OLS) algorithm, such that the new A-optimality- and D-optimality-based cost functions are constructed on the basis of an orthogonalization process that gains computational advantages and hence maintains the inherent computational efficiency associated with the conventional forward OLS approach. The proposed approach enhances the very popular forward OLS-algorithm-based RBF model construction method since the resultant RBF models are constructed in a manner that the system dynamics approximation capability, model adequacy and robustness are optimized simultaneously. The numerical examples provided show significant improvement based on the D-optimality design criterion, demonstrating that there is significant room for improvement in modelling via the popular RBF neural network.

Spectral design and verification of HIRDLS filters and antireflection coatings using an integrated system performance approach

The HIRDLS instrument contains 21 spectral channels spanning a wavelength range from 6 to 18mm. For each of these channels the spectral bandwidth and position are isolated by an interference bandpass filter at 301K placed at an intermediate focal plane of the instrument. A second filter cooled to 65K positioned at the same wavelength but designed with a wider bandwidth is placed directly in front of each cooled detector element to reduce stray radiation from internally reflected in-band signals, and to improve the out-of-band blocking. This paper describes the process of determining the spectral requirements for the two bandpass filters and the antireflection coatings used on the lenses and dewar window of the instrument. This process uses a system throughput performance approach taking the instrument spectral specification as a target. It takes into account the spectral characteristics of the transmissive optical materials, the relative spectral response of the detectors, thermal emission from the instrument, and the predicted atmospheric signal to determine the radiance profile for each channel. Using this design approach an optimal design for the filters can be achieved, minimising the number of layers to improve the in-band transmission and to aid manufacture. The use of this design method also permits the instrument spectral performance to be verified using the measured response from manufactured components. The spectral calculations for an example channel are discussed, together with the spreadsheet calculation method. All the contributions made by the spectrally active components to the resulting instrument channel throughput are identified and presented.

Application of cuckoo search for design optimization of heat exchangers

A wide variety of evolutionary optimization algorithms have been used by researcher for optimal design of shell and tube heat exchangers (STHX). The purpose of optimization is to minimize capital and operational costs subject to efficiency constraints. This paper comprehensively examines performance of genetic algorithm (GA) and cuckoo search (CS) for solving STHX design optimization. While GA has been widely adopted in the last decade for STHX optimal design, there is no report on application of CS method for this purpose. Simulation results in this paper demonstrate that CS greatly outperforms GA in terms of finding admissible and optimal configurations for STHX. It is also found that CS method not only has a lower computational requirement, but also generates the most consistent results.

Optimal unemployment insurance for couples

This work analyzes the optimal design of an unemployment insurance program for couples, whose joint search problem in the labor market differ significantly from the problem faced by single agents. We use a version of the sequential search model of the labor market adapted to married agents to compare optimal constant policies for single and married agents, as well as characterize the optimal constant policy when the agency faces single and married agents simultaneously. Our main result is that an agency that gives equal weights to single and married agents will want to give equal utility promises to both types of agents and spend more on the single agent.

Otimização de superfícies seletivas de frequência com elementos pré-fractais utilizando rede neural MLP e algoritmos de busca populacional

This thesis describes design methodologies for frequency selective surfaces (FSSs) composed of periodic arrays of pre-fractals metallic patches on single-layer dielectrics (FR4, RT/duroid). Shapes presented by Sierpinski island and T fractal geometries are exploited to the simple design of efficient band-stop spatial filters with applications in the range of microwaves. Initial results are discussed in terms of the electromagnetic effect resulting from the variation of parameters such as, fractal iteration number (or fractal level), fractal iteration factor, and periodicity of FSS, depending on the used pre-fractal element (Sierpinski island or T fractal). The transmission properties of these proposed periodic arrays are investigated through simulations performed by Ansoft DesignerTM and Ansoft HFSSTM commercial softwares that run full-wave methods. To validate the employed methodology, FSS prototypes are selected for fabrication and measurement. The obtained results point to interesting features for FSS spatial filters: compactness, with high values of frequency compression factor; as well as stable frequency responses at oblique incidence of plane waves. This thesis also approaches, as it main focus, the application of an alternative electromagnetic (EM) optimization technique for analysis and synthesis of FSSs with fractal motifs. In application examples of this technique, Vicsek and Sierpinski pre-fractal elements are used in the optimal design of FSS structures. Based on computational intelligence tools, the proposed technique overcomes the high computational cost associated to the full-wave parametric analyzes. To this end, fast and accurate multilayer perceptron (MLP) neural network models are developed using different parameters as design input variables. These neural network models aim to calculate the cost function in the iterations of population-based search algorithms. Continuous genetic algorithm (GA), particle swarm optimization (PSO), and bees algorithm (BA) are used for FSSs optimization with specific resonant frequency and bandwidth. The performance of these algorithms is compared in terms of computational cost and numerical convergence. Consistent results can be verified by the excellent agreement obtained between simulations and measurements related to FSS prototypes built with a given fractal iteration

Economic design of (X)over-bar and R charts under Weibull shock models

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Delineamentos experimentais eficientes para estudos de cinética química

In this paper we show how to obtain efficient designs of experiments for fitting Michaelis-Menten and Hill equations useful in chemical studies. The search of exact D-optimal designs by using local and pseudo-Bayesian approaches is considered. Optimal designs were compared to those commonly used in practice using an efficiency measure and theoretical standard errors of the kinetic parameter estimates. In conclusion, the D-optimal designs based on the Hill equation proved efficient for estimating the parameters of both models. Furthermore, these are promising with respect to practical issues, allowing efficient estimation as well as goodness-of-fit tests and comparisons between some kinetic models.

Steel fibre reinforced concrete pipes. Part 2: numerical model to simulate the crushing test

This paper is part of an extensive work about the technological development, experimental analysis and numerical modeling of steel fibre reinforced concrete pipes. The first part ("Steel fibre reinforced concrete pipes. Part 1: technological analysis of the mechanical behavior") dealt with the technological development of the experimental campaign, the test procedure and the discussion of the structural behavior obtained for each of the dosages of fibre used. This second part deals with the aspects of numerical modeling. In this respect, a numerical model called MAP, which simulates the behavior of fibre reinforced concrete pipes with medium-low range diameters, is introduced. The bases of the numerical model are also mentioned. Subsequently, the experimental results are contrasted with those produced by the numerical model, obtaining excellent correlations. It was possible to conclude that the numerical model is a useful tool for the design of this type of pipes, which represents an important step forward to establish the structural fibres as reinforcement for concrete pipes. Finally, the design for the optimal amount of fibres for a pipe with a diameter of 400 mm is presented as an illustrating example with strategic interest.

Design and Characterization of Curved and Spherical Flexure Hinges for Planar and Spatial Compliant Mechanisms

A flexure hinge is a flexible connector that can provide a limited rotational motion between two rigid parts by means of material deformation. These connectors can be used to substitute traditional kinematic pairs (like bearing couplings) in rigid-body mechanisms. When compared to their rigid-body counterpart, flexure hinges are characterized by reduced weight, absence of backlash and friction, part-count reduction, but restricted range of motion. There are several types of flexure hinges in the literature that have been studied and characterized for different applications. In our study, we have introduced new types of flexures with curved structures i.e. circularly curved-beam flexures and spherical flexures. These flexures have been utilized for both planar applications (e.g. articulated robotic fingers) and spatial applications (e.g. spherical compliant mechanisms). We have derived closed-form compliance equations for both circularly curved-beam flexures and spherical flexures. Each element of the spatial compliance matrix is analytically computed as a function of hinge dimensions and employed material. The theoretical model is then validated by comparing analytical data with the results obtained through Finite Element Analysis. A case study is also presented for each class of flexures, concerning the potential applications in the optimal design of planar and spatial compliant mechanisms. Each case study is followed by comparing the performance of these novel flexures with the performance of commonly used geometries in terms of principle compliance factors, parasitic motions and maximum stress demands. Furthermore, we have extended our study to the design and analysis of serial and parallel compliant mechanisms, where the proposed flexures have been employed to achieve spatial motions e.g. compliant spherical joints.

Design and optimization of turbo-expanders for organic rankine cycles

In a world focused on the need to produce energy for a growing population, while reducing atmospheric emissions of carbon dioxide, organic Rankine cycles represent a solution to fulfil this goal. This study focuses on the design and optimization of axial-flow turbines for organic Rankine cycles. From the turbine designer point of view, most of this fluids exhibit some peculiar characteristics, such as small enthalpy drop, low speed of sound, large expansion ratio. A computational model for the prediction of axial-flow turbine performance is developed and validated against experimental data. The model allows to calculate turbine performance within a range of accuracy of ±3%. The design procedure is coupled with an optimization process, performed using a genetic algorithm where the turbine total-to-static efficiency represents the objective function. The computational model is integrated in a wider analysis of thermodynamic cycle units, by providing the turbine optimal design. First, the calculation routine is applied in the context of the Draugen offshore platform, where three heat recovery systems are compared. The turbine performance is investigated for three competing bottoming cycles: organic Rankine cycle (operating cyclopentane), steam Rankine cycle and air bottoming cycle. Findings indicate the air turbine as the most efficient solution (total-to-static efficiency = 0.89), while the cyclopentane turbine results as the most flexible and compact technology (2.45 ton/MW and 0.63 m3/MW). Furthermore, the study shows that, for organic and steam Rankine cycles, the optimal design configurations for the expanders do not coincide with those of the thermodynamic cycles. This suggests the possibility to obtain a more accurate analysis by including the computational model in the simulations of the thermodynamic cycles. Afterwards, the performance analysis is carried out by comparing three organic fluids: cyclopentane, MDM and R245fa. Results suggest MDM as the most effective fluid from the turbine performance viewpoint (total-to-total efficiency = 0.89). On the other hand, cyclopentane guarantees a greater net power output of the organic Rankine cycle (P = 5.35 MW), while R245fa represents the most compact solution (1.63 ton/MW and 0.20 m3/MW). Finally, the influence of the composition of an isopentane/isobutane mixture on both the thermodynamic cycle performance and the expander isentropic efficiency is investigated. Findings show how the mixture composition affects the turbine efficiency and so the cycle performance. Moreover, the analysis demonstrates that the use of binary mixtures leads to an enhancement of the thermodynamic cycle performance.

Sleep disturbance, norepinephrine, and D-dimer are all related in elderly caregivers of people with Alzheimer disease

STUDY OBJECTIVE: Caregiving for a relative with Alzheimer disease has been associated with sympathoadrenal medullary arousal and morbidity and mortality. In this study, we examined if sleep disturbance of elderly caregivers was associated with physiologic markers of cardiovascular risk, including plasma norepinephrine, epinephrine, and the hemostasis marker D-dimer. DESIGN: Cross-sectional. SETTING: Community-based sample of elderly caregivers of spouses with Alzheimer disease assessed within their homes. PARTICIPANTS: A sample of 40 elderly spousal caregivers of patients with Alzheimer disease. MEASUREMENTS AND RESULTS: Participants underwent in-home full-night polysomnography and had plasma assayed for norepinephrine and epinephrine. Using multiple regression analyses and controlling for a number of cardiovascular risk factors (e.g., age, sex, blood pressure, body mass index), increased wake after sleep onset was positively associated with norepinephrine levels (beta = .35; t = 2.45, df = 32, p = .020) and plasma D-dimer (beta = .31; t = 2.18, df = 29, p = .038). Further, plasma norepinephrine was significantly associated with D-dimer (beta = .34; t = 2.11, df = 29, p = .044). Additional analyses indicated that norepinephrine accounted for 28% of the relationship between wake after sleep onset and D-dimer. No association was observed between sleep variables and epinephrine. CONCLUSIONS: These findings provide preliminary evidence that sleep disturbance may contribute to morbidity in caregivers through sympathoadrenal medullary arousal and downstream physiologic effects such as altering the hemostasis environment.

Bayesian dual threshold design with Dirichlet distribution: An alternative way to frequentist multi-stage phase II designs in oncology

Many phase II clinical studies in oncology use two-stage frequentist design such as Simon's optimal design. However, they have a common logistical problem regarding the patient accrual at the interim. Strictly speaking, patient accrual at the end of the first stage may have to be suspended until all patients have events, success or failure. For example, when the study endpoint is six-month progression free survival, patient accrual has to be stopped until all outcomes from stage I is observed. However, study investigators may have concern when accrual is suspended after the first stage due to the loss of accrual momentum during this hiatus. We propose a two-stage phase II design that resolves the patient accrual problem due to an interim analysis, and it can be used as an alternative way to frequentist two-stage phase II studies in oncology. ^

Design of mixed-longitudinal studies

Cross-sectional designs, longitudinal designs in which a single cohort is followed over time, and mixed-longitudinal designs in which several cohorts are followed for a shorter period are compared by their precision, potential for bias due to age, time and cohort effects, and feasibility. Mixed longitudinal studies have two advantages over longitudinal studies: isolation of time and age effects and shorter completion time. Though the advantages of mixed-longitudinal studies are clear, choosing an optimal design is difficult, especially given the number of possible combinations of the number of cohorts and number of overlapping intervals between cohorts. The purpose of this paper is to determine the optimal design for detecting differences in group growth rates.^ The type of mixed-longitudinal study appropriate for modeling both individual and group growth rates is called a "multiple-longitudinal" design. A multiple-longitudinal study typically requires uniform or simultaneous entry of subjects, who are each observed till the end of the study.^ While recommendations for designing pure-longitudinal studies have been made by Schlesselman (1973b), Lefant (1990) and Helms (1991), design recommendations for multiple-longitudinal studies have never been published. It is shown that by using power analyses to determine the minimum number of occasions per cohort and minimum number of overlapping occasions between cohorts, in conjunction with a cost model, an optimal multiple-longitudinal design can be determined. An example of systolic blood pressure values for cohorts of males and cohorts of females, ages 8 to 18 years, is given. ^

Optical systems design using the SMS method and optimizations

Resumen El diseño de sistemas ópticos, entendido como un arte por algunos, como una ciencia por otros, se ha realizado durante siglos. Desde los egipcios hasta nuestros días los sistemas de formación de imagen han ido evolucionando así como las técnicas de diseño asociadas. Sin embargo ha sido en los últimos 50 años cuando las técnicas de diseño han experimentado su mayor desarrollo y evolución, debido, en parte, a la aparición de nuevas técnicas de fabricación y al desarrollo de ordenadores cada vez más potentes que han permitido el cálculo y análisis del trazado de rayos a través de los sistemas ópticos de forma rápida y eficiente. Esto ha propiciado que el diseño de sistemas ópticos evolucione desde los diseños desarrollados únicamente a partir de la óptica paraxial hasta lo modernos diseños realizados mediante la utilización de diferentes técnicas de optimización multiparamétrica. El principal problema con el que se encuentra el diseñador es que las diferentes técnicas de optimización necesitan partir de un diseño inicial el cual puede fijar las posibles soluciones. Dicho de otra forma, si el punto de inicio está lejos del mínimo global, o diseño óptimo para las condiciones establecidas, el diseño final puede ser un mínimo local cerca del punto de inicio y lejos del mínimo global. Este tipo de problemática ha llevado al desarrollo de sistemas globales de optimización que cada vez sean menos sensibles al punto de inicio de la optimización. Aunque si bien es cierto que es posible obtener buenos diseños a partir de este tipo de técnicas, se requiere de muchos intentos hasta llegar a la solución deseada, habiendo un entorno de incertidumbre durante todo el proceso, puesto que no está asegurado el que se llegue a la solución óptima. El método de las Superficies Múltiples Simultaneas (SMS), que nació como una herramienta de cálculo de concentradores anidólicos, se ha demostrado como una herramienta también capaz utilizarse para el diseño de sistemas ópticos formadores de imagen, aunque hasta la fecha se ha utilizado para el diseño puntual de sistemas de formación de imagen. Esta tesis tiene por objeto presentar el SMS como un método que puede ser utilizado de forma general para el diseño de cualquier sistema óptico de focal fija o v afocal con un aumento definido así como una herramienta que puede industrializarse para ayudar al diseñador a afrontar de forma sencilla el diseño de sistemas ópticos complejos. Esta tesis está estructurada en cinco capítulos: El capítulo 1, es un capítulo de fundamentos donde se presentan los conceptos fundamentales necesarios para que el lector, aunque no posea una gran base en óptica formadora de imagen, pueda entender los planteamientos y resultados que se presentan en el resto de capítulos El capitulo 2 aborda el problema de la optimización de sistemas ópticos, donde se presenta el método SMS como una herramienta idónea para obtener un punto de partida para el proceso de optimización. Mediante un ejemplo aplicado se demuestra la importancia del punto de partida utilizado en la solución final encontrada. Además en este capítulo se presentan diferentes técnicas que permiten la interpolación y optimización de las superficies obtenidas a partir de la aplicación del SMS. Aunque en esta tesis se trabajará únicamente utilizando el SMS2D, se presenta además un método para la interpolación y optimización de las nubes de puntos obtenidas a partir del SMS3D basado en funciones de base radial (RBF). En el capítulo 3 se presenta el diseño, fabricación y medidas de un objetivo catadióptrico panorámico diseñado para trabajar en la banda del infrarrojo lejano (8-12 μm) para aplicaciones de vigilancia perimetral. El objetivo presentado se diseña utilizando el método SMS para tres frentes de onda de entrada utilizando cuatro superficies. La potencia del método de diseño utilizado se hace evidente en la sencillez con la que este complejo sistema se diseña. Las imágenes presentadas demuestran cómo el prototipo desarrollado cumple a la perfección su propósito. El capítulo 4 aborda el problema del diseño de sistemas ópticos ultra compactos, se introduce el concepto de sistemas multicanal, como aquellos sistemas ópticos compuestos por una serie de canales que trabajan en paralelo. Este tipo de sistemas resultan particularmente idóneos para él diseño de sistemas afocales. Se presentan estrategias de diseño para sistemas multicanal tanto monocromáticos como policromáticos. Utilizando la novedosa técnica de diseño que en este capítulo se presenta el diseño de un telescopio de seis aumentos y medio. En el capítulo 5 se presenta una generalización del método SMS para rayos meridianos. En este capítulo se presenta el algoritmo que debe utilizarse para el diseño de cualquier sistema óptico de focal fija. La denominada optimización fase 1 se vi introduce en el algoritmo presentado de forma que mediante el cambio de las condiciones iníciales del diseño SMS que, aunque el diseño se realice para rayos meridianos, los rayos skew tengan un comportamiento similar. Para probar la potencia del algoritmo desarrollado se presenta un conjunto de diseños con diferente número de superficies. La estabilidad y potencia del algoritmo se hace evidente al conseguirse por primera vez el diseño de un sistema de seis superficies diseñado por SMS. vii Abstract The design of optical systems, considered an art by some and a science by others, has been developed for centuries. Imaging optical systems have been evolving since Ancient Egyptian times, as have design techniques. Nevertheless, the most important developments in design techniques have taken place over the past 50 years, in part due to the advances in manufacturing techniques and the development of increasingly powerful computers, which have enabled the fast and efficient calculation and analysis of ray tracing through optical systems. This has led to the design of optical systems evolving from designs developed solely from paraxial optics to modern designs created by using different multiparametric optimization techniques. The main problem the designer faces is that the different optimization techniques require an initial design which can set possible solutions as a starting point. In other words, if the starting point is far from the global minimum or optimal design for the set conditions, the final design may be a local minimum close to the starting point and far from the global minimum. This type of problem has led to the development of global optimization systems which are increasingly less sensitive to the starting point of the optimization process. Even though it is possible to obtain good designs from these types of techniques, many attempts are necessary to reach the desired solution. This is because of the uncertain environment due to the fact that there is no guarantee that the optimal solution will be obtained. The Simultaneous Multiple Surfaces (SMS) method, designed as a tool to calculate anidolic concentrators, has also proved useful for the design of image-forming optical systems, although until now it has occasionally been used for the design of imaging systems. This thesis aims to present the SMS method as a technique that can be used in general for the design of any optical system, whether with a fixed focal or an afocal with a defined magnification, and also as a tool that can be commercialized to help designers in the design of complex optical systems. The thesis is divided into five chapters. Chapter 1 establishes the basics by presenting the fundamental concepts which the reader needs to acquire, even if he/she doesn‟t have extensive knowledge in the field viii of image-forming optics, in order to understand the steps taken and the results obtained in the following chapters. Chapter 2 addresses the problem of optimizing optical systems. Here the SMS method is presented as an ideal tool to obtain a starting point for the optimization process. The importance of the starting point for the final solution is demonstrated through an example. Additionally, this chapter introduces various techniques for the interpolation and optimization of the surfaces obtained through the application of the SMS method. Even though in this thesis only the SMS2D method is used, we present a method for the interpolation and optimization of clouds of points obtained though the SMS3D method, based on radial basis functions (RBF). Chapter 3 presents the design, manufacturing and measurement processes of a catadioptric panoramic lens designed to work in the Long Wavelength Infrared (LWIR) (8-12 microns) for perimeter surveillance applications. The lens presented is designed by using the SMS method for three input wavefronts using four surfaces. The powerfulness of the design method used is revealed through the ease with which this complex system is designed. The images presented show how the prototype perfectly fulfills its purpose. Chapter 4 addresses the problem of designing ultra-compact optical systems. The concept of multi-channel systems, such as optical systems composed of a series of channels that work in parallel, is introduced. Such systems are especially suitable for the design of afocal systems. We present design strategies for multichannel systems, both monochromatic and polychromatic. A telescope designed with a magnification of six-and-a-half through the innovative technique exposed in this chapter is presented. Chapter 5 presents a generalization of the SMS method for meridian rays. The algorithm to be used for the design of any fixed focal optics is revealed. The optimization known as phase 1 optimization is inserted into the algorithm so that, by changing the initial conditions of the SMS design, the skew rays have a similar behavior, despite the design being carried out for meridian rays. To test the power of the developed algorithm, a set of designs with a different number of surfaces is presented. The stability and strength of the algorithm become apparent when the first design of a system with six surfaces if obtained through the SMS method.