A logistic regression approach to estimating customer profit loss due to lapses in insurance

This article focuses on business risk management in the insurance industry. A methodology for estimating the profit loss caused by each customer in the portfolio due to policy cancellation is proposed. Using data from a European insurance company, customer behaviour over time is analyzed in order to estimate the probability of policy cancelation and the resulting potential profit loss due to cancellation. Customers may have up to two different lines of business contracts: motor insurance and other diverse insurance (such as, home contents, life or accident insurance). Implications for understanding customer cancellation behaviour as the core of business risk management are outlined.

Comparative genetic analyses point to HCP5 as susceptibility locus for HCV-associated hepatocellular carcinoma.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Recently, genetic variations in MICA (lead single nucleotide polymorphism [SNP] rs2596542) were identified by a genome-wide association study (GWAS) to be associated with hepatitis C virus (HCV)-related hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in Japanese patients. In the present study, we sought to determine whether this SNP is predictive of HCC development in the Caucasian population as well. METHODS: An extended region around rs2596542 was genotyped in 1924 HCV-infected patients from the Swiss Hepatitis C Cohort Study (SCCS). Pair-wise correlation between key SNPs was calculated both in the Japanese and European populations (HapMap3: CEU and JPT). RESULTS: To our surprise, the minor allele A of rs2596542 in proximity of MICA appeared to have a protective impact on HCC development in Caucasians, which represents an inverse association as compared to the one observed in the Japanese population. Detailed fine-mapping analyses revealed a new SNP in HCP5 (rs2244546) upstream of MICA as strong predictor of HCV-related HCC in the SCCS (univariable p=0.027; multivariable p=0.0002, odds ratio=3.96, 95% confidence interval=1.90-8.27). This newly identified SNP had a similarly directed effect on HCC in both Caucasian and Japanese populations, suggesting that rs2244546 may better tag a putative true variant than the originally identified SNPs. CONCLUSIONS: Our data confirms the MICA/HCP5 region as susceptibility locus for HCV-related HCC and identifies rs2244546 in HCP5 as a novel tagging SNP. In addition, our data exemplify the need for conducting meta-analyses of cohorts of different ethnicities in order to fine map GWAS signals.

Les vertébroplasties: point de vue du rhumatologue [Vertebro-plasty: a rheumatologist's point of view]

Percutaneous vertebro-plasty is an efficient treatment of the symptomatic vertebral compression fracture refractory to optimal medical therapy. The procedure is used for neoplastic lesions, aggressive angioma, but also osteoporotic compression fractures. In order to adequately advice our patients, it is essential to know its indications and possible complications. However, to practice a vertebro-plasty for an osteoporotic compression fracture without any long term management of the osteoporotic disease is useless. Unfortunately, it still happens too often and it is essential that orthopedic surgeons, general practitioner, radiologist, rheumatologist, and any practitioners work together to guarantee the optimal management of our patients.

Application of discriminant function analysis and change-point problem in dating volcanic ashes

The application of Discriminant function analysis (DFA) is not a new idea in the studyof tephrochrology. In this paper, DFA is applied to compositional datasets of twodifferent types of tephras from Mountain Ruapehu in New Zealand and MountainRainier in USA. The canonical variables from the analysis are further investigated witha statistical methodology of change-point problems in order to gain a betterunderstanding of the change in compositional pattern over time. Finally, a special caseof segmented regression has been proposed to model both the time of change and thechange in pattern. This model can be used to estimate the age for the unknown tephrasusing Bayesian statistical calibration

The curvature of the conical intersection seam: an approximate second-order analysis

We present a method for analyzing the curvature (second derivatives) of the conical intersection hyperline at an optimized critical point. Our method uses the projected Hessians of the degenerate states after elimination of the two branching space coordinates, and is equivalent to a frequency calculation on a single Born-Oppenheimer potential-energy surface. Based on the projected Hessians, we develop an equation for the energy as a function of a set of curvilinear coordinates where the degeneracy is preserved to second order (i.e., the conical intersection hyperline). The curvature of the potential-energy surface in these coordinates is the curvature of the conical intersection hyperline itself, and thus determines whether one has a minimum or saddle point on the hyperline. The equation used to classify optimized conical intersection points depends in a simple way on the first- and second-order degeneracy splittings calculated at these points. As an example, for fulvene, we show that the two optimized conical intersection points of C2v symmetry are saddle points on the intersection hyperline. Accordingly, there are further intersection points of lower energy, and one of C2 symmetry - presented here for the first time - is found to be the global minimum in the intersection space

Bilinear models for spatio-temporal point distribution analysis: application to extrapolation of left ventricular, biventricular and whole heart cardiac dynamics

In this work we describe the usage of bilinear statistical models as a means of factoring the shape variability into two components attributed to inter-subject variation and to the intrinsic dynamics of the human heart. We show that it is feasible to reconstruct the shape of the heart at discrete points in the cardiac cycle. Provided we are given a small number of shape instances representing the same heart atdifferent points in the same cycle, we can use the bilinearmodel to establish this. Using a temporal and a spatial alignment step in the preprocessing of the shapes, around half of the reconstruction errors were on the order of the axial image resolution of 2 mm, and over 90% was within 3.5 mm. From this, weconclude that the dynamics were indeed separated from theinter-subject variability in our dataset.

Assistance circulatoire chronique: le point en 2013 [Long-term mechanical circulatory support: where do we stand in 2013?].

With the advent of new technologies, experience with long-term mechanical circulatory support (MCS) is rapidly growing. Candidates to MCS are selected based on concepts, strategies and classifications that are specific to this indication. As results drastically improve, supported by stronger scientific evidence, the trend is towards earlier implantation. An adequate pre-implant follow-up is mandatory in order to avoid missing the best window of opportunity for implantation. While on chronic support, the hemodynamic profile of patients with continuous-flow ventricular assist devices is unique and remarkably influenced by the hydration status. Optimal management of these patients from the pre-implant phase to the long-term support phase requires a multidisciplinary approach that is similar to that already long validated for organ transplantation.

Dynamic higher order expectations

In models where privately informed agents interact, agents may need to formhigher order expectations, i.e. expectations of other agents' expectations. This paper develops a tractable framework for solving and analyzing linear dynamic rational expectationsmodels in which privately informed agents form higher order expectations. The frameworkis used to demonstrate that the well-known problem of the infinite regress of expectationsidentified by Townsend (1983) can be approximated to an arbitrary accuracy with a finitedimensional representation under quite general conditions. The paper is constructive andpresents a fixed point algorithm for finding an accurate solution and provides weak conditions that ensure that a fixed point exists. To help intuition, Singleton's (1987) asset pricingmodel with disparately informed traders is used as a vehicle for the paper.

Programa de gestió per la Boutique Shahrazad

Per tal d'iniciar el meu TFC, vaig decidir començar a desenvolupar un programa que contempla la gestió diària del comerç, així com la dels productes, clients, proveïdors, vendes i compres, d’un negoci que es tracta d’una botiga de roba, sabates,bosses i complements, per tal de convertir-ho en un sistema de gestió més complert. Actualment, l’entorn de negoci en el petit comerç està cada cop més desplaçat degut al gran creixement de les grans superfícies per part de franquícies de cadenes molt potents. A més, els clients són cada cop més exigents i el mercat està cada vegada més saturat. És per això que voldrem incloure un valor afegit al sistema, per poder donar un nou punt de vista al negoci, de tal manera que permeti nodrir la nostra relació amb el client, de manera que la col•laboració sigui satisfactòria per ambdues parts. I per acabar s’elabora una pàgina web per tal de fer promoció i publicitat per la botiga, ja que avui en dia és molt important existir en el món virtual.

Crescent and star shapes of members of the Chlamydiales order: impact of fixative methods.

Members of the Chlamydiales order all share a biphasic lifecycle alternating between small infectious particles, the elementary bodies (EBs) and larger intracellular forms able to replicate, the reticulate bodies. Whereas the classical Chlamydia usually harbours round-shaped EBs, some members of the Chlamydia-related families display crescent and star-shaped morphologies by electron microscopy. To determine the impact of fixative methods on the shape of the bacterial cells, different buffer and fixative combinations were tested on purified EBs of Criblamydia sequanensis, Estrella lausannensis, Parachlamydia acanthamoebae, and Waddlia chondrophila. A linear discriminant analysis was performed on particle metrics extracted from electron microscopy images to recognize crescent, round, star and intermediary forms. Depending on the buffer and fixatives used, a mixture of alternative shapes were observed in varying proportions with stars and crescents being more frequent in C. sequanensis and P. acanthamoebae, respectively. No tested buffer and chemical fixative preserved ideally the round shape of a majority of bacteria and other methods such as deep-freezing and cryofixation should be applied. Although crescent and star shapes could represent a fixation artifact, they certainly point towards a diverse composition and organization of membrane proteins or intracellular structures rather than being a distinct developmental stage.

Comment on "Reappraisal of experimental values of third-order elastic constants of some cubic semiconductors and metals"

In a recent paper A. S. Johal and D. J. Dunstan [Phys. Rev. B 73, 024106 (2006)] have applied multivariate linear regression analysis to the published data of the change in ultrasonic velocity with applied stress. The aim is to obtain the best estimates for the third-order elastic constants in cubic materials. From such an analysis they conclude that uniaxial stress data on metals turns out to be nearly useless by itself. The purpose of this comment is to point out that by a proper analysis of uniaxial stress data it is possible to obtain reliable values of third-order elastic constants in cubic metals and alloys. Cu-based shape memory alloys are used as an illustrative example.

A reduction of order two for infinite-order Lagrangians

Given a Lagrangian system depending on the position derivatives of any order, and assuming that certain conditions are satisfied, a second-order differential system is obtained such that its solutions also satisfy the Euler equations derived from the original Lagrangian. A generalization of the singular Lagrangian formalism permits a reduction of order keeping the canonical formalism in sight. Finally, the general results obtained in the first part of the paper are applied to Wheeler-Feynman electrodynamics for two charged point particles up to order 1/c4.

Interactions among systems of finite size en predictive relativistic mechanics III. Short-range interaction and second-order terms

We compute up to and including all the c-2 terms in the dynamical equations for extended bodies interacting through electromagnetic, gravitational, or short-range fields. We show that these equations can be reduced to those of point particles with intrinsic angular momentum assuming spherical symmetry.

Probing the role of point mutations in the cyp51A gene from Aspergillus fumigatus in the model yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae.

Azole-resistant strains of Aspergillus fumigatus have been detected and the underlying molecular mechanisms of resistance characterized. Point mutations in the cyp51A gene have been proved to be related to azole resistance in A. fumigatus clinical strains and with different resistance profiles depending on the amino acid change (G54E, G54V, G54R, G54W, M220V, M220K, M220T, M220I). The aim of this work was to express A. fumigatus cyp51A genes in the yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae in order to better assess the contribution of each independent amino acid substitution to resistance. A tetracycline regulatable system allowing repression of the endogenous essential ERG11 gene was used. The expression of Aspergillus cyp51A alleles could efficiently restore the absence of ERG11 in S. cerevisiae. In general, S. cerevisiae clones expressing. A. fumigatus cyp51A alleles from azole-resistant isolates showed higher MICs to all azoles tested than those expressing alleles from susceptible isolates. The azole susceptibility profiles obtained in S. cerevisiae upon expression of specific cyp51A alleles recapitulated susceptibility profiles observed from their A. fumigatus origins. In conclusion this work supports the concept that characteristics of specific A. fumigatus cyp51A alleles could be investigated in the heterologous host S. cerevisiae.

Le projet "SYNAPSY": un point de rencontre entre clinique et neurosciences [The "SYNAPSY" project: where psychiatrists and neuroscientists meet].

The National Center of Competence in Research project "SYNAPSY" aims at identifying certain mechanisms of psychiatric and cognitive disorders, in order to improve the understanding and the genesis of such pathologies, and to promote the development of better diagnostic tools and of new therapeutic approaches. It provides an excellent opportunity for clinical psychiatrists and neuroscientists to develop a synergic mode of collaboration. On the basis of questions stemming from clinical practice and in the frame of patients cohorts, various research projects in neuroscience should lead to progresses that may have a considerable impact on clinical practice.