China's defence industries : change and continuity

Asia looks and feels very different now compared to the days of the Cold War. The sense that Asia now works differently can be traced to a single source – the re-emergence of China. China was the dominant power in greater Asia for most of recorded history. This historical norm was interrupted from the early 19th century, too far into the past to be recognisable and readily accommodated by the actors in today’s international arena. A powerful China feels new and unfamiliar.

Arriving peacefully at mutually acceptable relationships of power and influence that are very different from those that have prevailed for the past half century will be a demanding process. The world’s track record on challenges of this kind is not terrific. It will call for statesmanship of a consistently high order from all the major players, and building the strongest possible confidence among these players that there are no hidden agendas.

Using formative research to develop CHANGE! : a curriculum-based physical activity promoting intervention

Background : Low childhood physical activity levels are currently one of the most pressing public health concerns. Numerous school-based physical activity interventions have been conducted with varied success. Identifying effective child-based physical activity interventions are warranted. The purpose of this formative study was to elicit subjective views of children, their parents, and teachers about physical activity to inform the design of the CHANGE! (Children's Health, Activity, and Nutrition: Get Educated!) intervention programme.

Methods : Semi-structured mixed-gender interviews (group and individual) were conducted in 11 primary schools, stratified by socioeconomic status, with 60 children aged 9-10 years (24 boys, 36 girls), 33 parents (4 male, 29 female) and 10 teachers (4 male, 6 female). Questions for interviews were structured around the PRECEDE stage of the PRECEDE-PROCEDE model and addressed knowledge, attitudes and beliefs towards physical activity, as well as views on barriers to participation. All data were transcribed verbatim. Pen profiles were constructed from the transcripts in a deductive manner using the Youth Physical Activity Promotion Model framework. The profiles represented analysis outcomes via a diagram of key emergent themes.

Results : Analyses revealed an understanding of the relationship between physical activity and health, although some children had limited understanding of what constitutes physical activity. Views elicited by children and parents were generally consistent. Fun, enjoyment and social support were important predictors of physical activity participation, though several barriers such as lack of parental support were identified across all group interviews. The perception of family invested time was positively linked to physical activity engagement.

Conclusions : Families have a powerful and important role in promoting health-enhancing behaviours. Involvement of parents and the whole family is a strategy that could be significant to increase children's physical activity levels. Addressing various perceived barriers to such behaviours therefore, remains imperative.

Model results of the impact of climate change on agriculture in China

This paper assesses the impact of climate change on China's agricultural production at a cross-provincial level using the Ricardian approach, incorporating a multilevel model with farm-level group data. The farm-level group data includes 13379 farm households, across 316 villages, distributed in 31 provinces. The empirical results show that, firstly, the marginal effects and elasticities of net crop revenue per hectare with respect to climate factors indicated that the annual impact of temperature on net crop revenue per hectare was positive, and the effect of increased precipitation was negative when looking at the national totals; secondly, the total impact of simulated climate change scenarios on net crop revenues per hectare at a Chinese national total level, was an increase of between 79 USD per hectare and 207 USD per hectare for the 2050s, and an increase from 140 USD per hectare to 355 USD per hectare for the 2080s. As a result, climate change may create a potential advantage for the development of Chinese agriculture, rather than a risk, especially for agriculture in the provinces of the Northeast, Northwest and North regions. However, the increased precipitation can lead to a loss of net crop revenue per hectare, especially for the provinces of the Southwest, Northwest, North and Northeast regions.

How do free trade agreements change import prices? : firm-level evidence from China's imports from ASEAN

The literature has revealed the positive impacts of free trade agreements (FTAs) on export prices by employing product-level trade data. This paper empirically examines the impacts of FTAs on import prices at the firm level. We focus on firm-level imports in China from ASEAN countries by employing China’s firm-product-level trade data. As a result, controlling for firm characteristics and product characteristics, we could not find significantly positive impacts of an FTA’s entry into force on import prices of FTA eligible products. Instead, we found a significant increase in import quantities of FTA eligible products. Thus, at the firm level, the gains from FTAs for exporters may be the increase in export quantities rather than the rise in export prices.