Numerical coupling of thermal-electric network models and energy-transport equations including optoelectronic semiconductor devices

In this work the numerical coupling of thermal and electric network models with model equations for optoelectronic semiconductor devices is presented. Modified nodal analysis (MNA) is applied to model electric networks. Thermal effects are modeled by an accompanying thermal network. Semiconductor devices are modeled by the energy-transport model, that allows for thermal effects. The energy-transport model is expandend to a model for optoelectronic semiconductor devices. The temperature of the crystal lattice of the semiconductor devices is modeled by the heat flow eqaution. The corresponding heat source term is derived under thermodynamical and phenomenological considerations of energy fluxes. The energy-transport model is coupled directly into the network equations and the heat flow equation for the lattice temperature is coupled directly into the accompanying thermal network. The coupled thermal-electric network-device model results in a system of partial differential-algebraic equations (PDAE). Numerical examples are presented for the coupling of network- and one-dimensional semiconductor equations. Hybridized mixed finite elements are applied for the space discretization of the semiconductor equations. Backward difference formluas are applied for time discretization. Thus, positivity of charge carrier densities and continuity of the current density is guaranteed even for the coupled model.

Chemical interaction between ocean and atmosphere

The exchange of chemical constituents between ocean and atmosphere provides potentially important feedback mechanisms in the climate system. The aim of this study is to develop and evaluate a chemically coupled global atmosphere-ocean model. For this, an atmosphere-ocean general circulation model with atmospheric chemistry has been expanded to include oceanic biogeochemistry and the process of air-sea gas exchange. The calculation of seawater concentrations in the oceanic biogeochemistry submodel has been expanded from DMS, CO₂

Phase diagram with an enhanced spin-glass region of the mixed Ising–XY magnet LiHo{x}Er{1-x}F{4}

We present the experimental phase diagram of LiHoxEr1-xF4, a dilution series of dipolar-coupled model magnets. The phase diagram was determined using a combination of ac susceptibility and neutron scattering. Three unique phases in addition to the Ising ferromagnet LiHoF4 and the XY antiferromagnet LiErF4 have been identified. Below x = 0.86, an embedded spin-glass phase is observed, where a spin glass exists within the ferromagnetic structure. Below x = 0.57, an Ising spin glass is observed consisting of frozen needlelike clusters. For x ∼ 0.3–0.1, an antiferromagnetically coupled spin glass occurs. A reduction of TC(x) for the ferromagnet is observed which disobeys the mean-field predictions that worked for LiHoxY1-xF4.

Large-scale temperature response to external forcing in simulations and reconstructions of the last millennium

Understanding natural climate variability and its driving factors is crucial to assessing future climate change. Therefore, comparing proxy-based climate reconstructions with forcing factors as well as comparing these with paleoclimate model simulations is key to gaining insights into the relative roles of internal versus forced variability. A review of the state of modelling of the climate of the last millennium prior to the CMIP5–PMIP3 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5–Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project Phase 3) coordinated effort is presented and compared to the available temperature reconstructions. Simulations and reconstructions broadly agree on reproducing the major temperature changes and suggest an overall linear response to external forcing on multidecadal or longer timescales. Internal variability is found to have an important influence at hemispheric and global scales. The spatial distribution of simulated temperature changes during the transition from the Medieval Climate Anomaly to the Little Ice Age disagrees with that found in the reconstructions. Thus, either internal variability is a possible major player in shaping temperature changes through the millennium or the model simulations have problems realistically representing the response pattern to external forcing. A last millennium transient climate response (LMTCR) is defined to provide a quantitative framework for analysing the consistency between simulated and reconstructed climate. Beyond an overall agreement between simulated and reconstructed LMTCR ranges, this analysis is able to single out specific discrepancies between some reconstructions and the ensemble of simulations. The disagreement is found in the cases where the reconstructions show reduced covariability with external forcings or when they present high rates of temperature change.

On the evolution of the oceanic component of the IPSL climate models from CMIP3 to CMIP5: A mean state comparison

This study analyses the impact on the oceanic mean state of the evolution of the oceanic component (NEMO) of the climate model developed at Institut Pierre Simon Laplace (IPSL-CM), from the version IPSL-CM4, used for third phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3), to IPSL-CM5A, used for CMIP5. Several modifications have been implemented between these two versions, in particular an interactive coupling with a biogeochemical module, a 3-band model for the penetration of the solar radiation, partial steps at the bottom of the ocean and a set of physical parameterisations to improve the representation of the impact of turbulent and tidal mixing. A set of forced and coupled experiments is used to single out the effect of each of these modifications and more generally the evolution of the oceanic component on the IPSL coupled models family. Major improvements are located in the Southern Ocean, where physical parameterisations such as partial steps and tidal mixing reinforce the barotropic transport of water mass, in particular in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current) and ensure a better representation of Antarctic bottom water masses. However, our analysis highlights that modifications, which substantially improve ocean dynamics in forced configuration, can yield or amplify biases in coupled configuration. In particular, the activation of radiative biophysical coupling between biogeochemical cycle and ocean dynamics results in a cooling of the ocean mean state. This illustrates the difficulty to improve and tune coupled climate models, given the large number of degrees of freedom and the potential compensating effects masking some biases.

Northern Hemisphere temperature reconstruction during the last millennium using multiple annual proxies

Previous studies have either exclusively used annual tree-ring data or have combined tree-ring series with other, lower temporal resolution proxy series. Both approaches can lead to significant uncertainties, as tree-rings may underestimate the amplitude of past temperature variations, and the validity of non-annual records cannot be clearly assessed. In this study, we assembled 45 published Northern Hemisphere (NH) temperature proxy records covering the past millennium, each of which satisfied 3 essential criteria: the series must be of annual resolution, span at least a thousand years, and represent an explicit temperature signal. Suitable climate archives included ice cores, varved lake sediments, tree-rings and speleothems. We reconstructed the average annual land temperature series for the NH over the last millennium by applying 3 different reconstruction techniques: (1) principal components (PC) plus second-order autoregressive model (AR2), (2) composite plus scale (CPS) and (3) regularized errors-in-variables approach (EIV). Our reconstruction is in excellent agreement with 6 climate model simulations (including the first 5 models derived from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and an earth system model of intermediate complexity (LOVECLIM), showing similar temperatures at multi-decadal timescales; however, all simulations appear to underestimate the temperature during the Medieval Warm Period (MWP). A comparison with other NH reconstructions shows that our results are consistent with earlier studies. These results indicate that well-validated annual proxy series should be used to minimize proxy-based artifacts, and that these proxy series contain sufficient information to reconstruct the low-frequency climate variability over the past millennium.

Reconciling two alternative mechanisms behind bi-decadal variability in the North Atlantic

Understanding the preferential timescales of variability in the North Atlantic, usually associated with the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), is essential for the prospects for decadal prediction. However, the wide variety of mechanisms proposed from the analysis of climate simulations, potentially dependent on the models themselves, has stimulated the debate of which processes take place in reality. One mechanism receiving increasing attention, identified both in idealized models and observations, is a westward propagation of subsurface buoyancy anomalies that impact the AMOC through a basin-scale intensification of the zonal density gradient, enhancing the northward transport via thermal wind balance. In this study, we revisit a control simulation from the Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace Coupled Model 5A (IPSL-CM5A), characterized by a strong AMOC periodicity at 20 years, previously explained by an upper ocean–atmosphere–sea ice coupled mode driving convection activity south of Iceland. Our study shows that this mechanism interacts constructively with the basin-wide propagation in the subsurface. This constructive feedback may explain why bi-decadal variability is so intense in this coupled model as compared to others.

The Dynamics of High-Speed Railway Bridges: A Review of Design Issues and New Research for Lateral Dynamics

The dynamic effects of high-speed trains on viaducts are important issues for the design of the structures, as well as for the consideration of safe running conditions for the trains. In this work we start by reviewing the relevance of some basic design aspects. The significance of impact factor envelopes for moving loads is considered first. Resonance which may be achieved for high-speed trains requires dynamic analysis, for which some key aspects are discussed. The relevance of performing a longitudinal distribution of axle loads, the number of modes taken in analysis, and the consideration of vehicle-structure interaction are discussed with representative examples. The lateral dynamic effects of running trains on bridges is of importance for laterally compliant viaducts, such as some very tall structures erected in new high-speed lines. The relevance of this study is mainly for the safety of the traffic, considering both internal actions such as the hunting motion as well as external actions such as wind or earthquakes [1]. These studies require three-dimensional dynamic coupled vehicle-bridge models, and consideration of wheel to rail contact, a phenomenon which is complex and costly to model in detail. We describe here a fully nonlinear coupled model, described in absolute coordinates and incorporated into a commercial finite element framework [2]. The wheel-rail contact has been considered using a FastSim algorithm which provides a compromise between accuracy and computational cost, and captures the main nonlinear response of the contact interface. Two applications are presented, firstly to a vehicle subject to a strong wind gust traversing a bridge, showing the relevance of the nonlinear wheel-rail contact model as well as the dynamic interaction between bridge and vehicle. The second application is to a real HS viaduct with a long continuous deck and tall piers and high lateral compliance [3]. The results show the safety of the traffic as well as the importance of considering features such as track alignment irregularities.

Nonlinear models for lateral dynamics of railway vehicles on bridges subject to wind action

The study of lateral dynamics of running trains on bridges is of importance mainly for the safety of the traffic, and may be relevant for laterally compliant bridges. These studies require threedimensional coupled vehicle-bridge models, wheree consideration of wheel to rail contact is a key aspect. Furthermore, an adequate evaluation of safety of rail traffic requires nonlinear models. A nonlinear coupled model is proposed here for vehicle-structure vertical and lateral dynamics. Vehicles are considered as fully three-dimensional multibody systems including gyroscopic terms and large rotation effects. The bridge structure is modeled by means of finite elements which may be of beam, shell or continuum type and may include geometric or material nonlinearities. The track geometry includes distributed track alignment irregularities. Both subsystems (bridge and vehicles) are described with coordinates in absolute reference frames, as opposed to alternative approaches which describe the multibody system with coordinates relative to the base bridge motion. The wheelrail contact employed is a semi-Hertzian model based on realistic wheel-rail profiles. It allows a detailed geometrical description of the contact patch under each wheel including multiple-point contact, flange contact and uplift. Normal and tangential stresses in each contact are integrated at each time-step to obtain the resultant contact forces. The models have been implemented within an existing finite element analysis software with multibody capabilities, Abaqus (Simulia Ltd., 2010). Further details of the model are presented in Antolín et al. (2012). Representative applications are presented for railway vehicles under lateral wind action on laterally compliant viaducts, showing the relevance of the nonlinear wheel-rail contact model as well as the interaction between bridge and vehicle.

Analysis of the static and dynamic behaviour of hydraulic fills

En la actualidad existe un gran conocimiento en la caracterización de rellenos hidráulicos, tanto en su caracterización estática, como dinámica. Sin embargo, son escasos en la literatura estudios más generales y globales de estos materiales, muy relacionados con sus usos y principales problemáticas en obras portuarias y mineras. Los procedimientos semi‐empíricos para la evaluación del efecto silo en las celdas de cajones portuarios, así como para el potencial de licuefacción de estos suelos durantes cargas instantáneas y terremotos, se basan en estudios donde la influencia de los parámetros que los rigen no se conocen en gran medida, dando lugar a resultados con considerable dispersión. Este es el caso, por ejemplo, de los daños notificados por el grupo de investigación del Puerto de Barcelona, la rotura de los cajones portuarios en el Puerto de Barcelona en 2007. Por estos motivos y otros, se ha decidido desarrollar un análisis para la evaluación de estos problemas mediante la propuesta de una metodología teórico‐numérica y empírica. El enfoque teórico‐numérico desarrollado en el presente estudio se centra en la determinación del marco teórico y las herramientas numéricas capaces de solventar los retos que presentan estos problemas. La complejidad del problema procede de varios aspectos fundamentales: el comportamiento no lineal de los suelos poco confinados o flojos en procesos de consolidación por preso propio; su alto potencial de licuefacción; la caracterización hidromecánica de los contactos entre estructuras y suelo (camino preferencial para el flujo de agua y consolidación lateral); el punto de partida de los problemas con un estado de tensiones efectivas prácticamente nulo. En cuanto al enfoque experimental, se ha propuesto una metodología de laboratorio muy sencilla para la caracterización hidromecánica del suelo y las interfaces, sin la necesidad de usar complejos aparatos de laboratorio o procedimientos excesivamente complicados. Este trabajo incluye por tanto un breve repaso a los aspectos relacionados con la ejecución de los rellenos hidráulicos, sus usos principales y los fenómenos relacionados, con el fin de establecer un punto de partida para el presente estudio. Este repaso abarca desde la evolución de las ecuaciones de consolidación tradicionales (Terzaghi, 1943), (Gibson, English & Hussey, 1967) y las metodologías de cálculo (Townsend & McVay, 1990) (Fredlund, Donaldson and Gitirana, 2009) hasta las contribuciones en relación al efecto silo (Ranssen, 1985) (Ravenet, 1977) y sobre el fenómeno de la licuefacción (Casagrande, 1936) (Castro, 1969) (Been & Jefferies, 1985) (Pastor & Zienkiewicz, 1986). Con motivo de este estudio se ha desarrollado exclusivamente un código basado en el método de los elementos finitos (MEF) empleando el programa MATLAB. Para ello, se ha esablecido un marco teórico (Biot, 1941) (Zienkiewicz & Shiomi, 1984) (Segura & Caron, 2004) y numérico (Zienkiewicz & Taylor, 1989) (Huerta & Rodríguez, 1992) (Segura & Carol, 2008) para resolver problemas de consolidación multidimensional con condiciones de contorno friccionales, y los correspondientes modelos constitutivos (Pastor & Zienkiewicz, 1986) (Fiu & Liu, 2011). Asimismo, se ha desarrollado una metodología experimental a través de una serie de ensayos de laboratorio para la calibración de los modelos constitutivos y de la caracterización de parámetros índice y de flujo (Castro, 1969) (Bahda 1997) (Been & Jefferies, 2006). Para ello se han empleado arenas de Hostun como material (relleno hidráulico) de referencia. Como principal aportación se incluyen una serie de nuevos ensayos de corte directo para la caracterización hidromecánica de la interfaz suelo – estructura de hormigón, para diferentes tipos de encofrados y rugosidades. Finalmente, se han diseñado una serie de algoritmos específicos para la resolución del set de ecuaciones diferenciales de gobierno que definen este problema. Estos algoritmos son de gran importancia en este problema para tratar el procesamiento transitorio de la consolidación de los rellenos hidráulicos, y de otros efectos relacionados con su implementación en celdas de cajones, como el efecto silo y la licuefacciones autoinducida. Para ello, se ha establecido un modelo 2D axisimétrico, con formulación acoplada u‐p para elementos continuos y elementos interfaz (de espesor cero), que tratan de simular las condiciones de estos rellenos hidráulicos cuando se colocan en las celdas portuarias. Este caso de estudio hace referencia clara a materiales granulares en estado inicial muy suelto y con escasas tensiones efectivas, es decir, con prácticamente todas las sobrepresiones ocasionadas por el proceso de autoconsolidación (por peso propio). Por todo ello se requiere de algoritmos numéricos específicos, así como de modelos constitutivos particulares, para los elementos del continuo y para los elementos interfaz. En el caso de la simulación de diferentes procedimientos de puesta en obra de los rellenos se ha requerido la modificacion de los algoritmos empleados para poder así representar numéricamente la puesta en obra de estos materiales, además de poder realizar una comparativa de los resultados para los distintos procedimientos. La constante actualización de los parámetros del suelo, hace también de este algoritmo una potente herramienta que permite establecer un interesante juego de perfiles de variables, tales como la densidad, el índice de huecos, la fracción de sólidos, el exceso de presiones, y tensiones y deformaciones. En definitiva, el modelo otorga un mejor entendimiento del efecto silo, término comúnmente usado para definir el fenómeno transitorio del gradiente de presiones laterales en las estructuras de contención en forma de silo. Finalmente se incluyen una serie de comparativas entre los resultados del modelo y de diferentes estudios de la literatura técnica, tanto para el fenómeno de las consolidaciones por preso propio (Fredlund, Donaldson & Gitirana, 2009) como para el estudio del efecto silo (Puertos del Estado, 2006, EuroCódigo (2006), Japan Tech, Stands. (2009), etc.). Para concluir, se propone el diseño de un prototipo de columna de decantación con paredes friccionales, como principal propuesta de futura línea de investigación. Wide research is nowadays available on the characterization of hydraulic fills in terms of either static or dynamic behavior. However, reported comprehensive analyses of these soils when meant for port or mining works are scarce. Moreover, the semi‐empirical procedures for assessing the silo effect on cells in floating caissons, and the liquefaction potential of these soils during sudden loads or earthquakes are based on studies where the underlying influence parameters are not well known, yielding results with significant scatter. This is the case, for instance, of hazards reported by the Barcelona Liquefaction working group, with the failure of harbor walls in 2007. By virtue of this, a complex approach has been undertaken to evaluate the problem by a proposal of numerical and laboratory methodology. Within a theoretical and numerical scope, the study is focused on the numerical tools capable to face the different challenges of this problem. The complexity is manifold; the highly non‐linear behavior of consolidating soft soils; their potentially liquefactable nature, the significance of the hydromechanics of the soil‐structure contact, the discontinuities as preferential paths for water flow, setting “negligible” effective stresses as initial conditions. Within an experimental scope, a straightforward laboratory methodology is introduced for the hydromechanical characterization of the soil and the interface without the need of complex laboratory devices or cumbersome procedures. Therefore, this study includes a brief overview of the hydraulic filling execution, main uses (land reclamation, filled cells, tailing dams, etc.) and the underlying phenomena (self‐weight consolidation, silo effect, liquefaction, etc.). It comprises from the evolution of the traditional consolidation equations (Terzaghi, 1943), (Gibson, English, & Hussey, 1967) and solving methodologies (Townsend & McVay, 1990) (Fredlund, Donaldson and Gitirana, 2009) to the contributions in terms of silo effect (Ranssen, 1895) (Ravenet, 1977) and liquefaction phenomena (Casagrande, 1936) (Castro, 1969) (Been & Jefferies, 1985) (Pastor & Zienkiewicz, 1986). The novelty of the study lies on the development of a Finite Element Method (FEM) code, exclusively formulated for this problem. Subsequently, a theoretical (Biot, 1941) (Zienkiewicz and Shiomi, 1984) (Segura and Carol, 2004) and numerical approach (Zienkiewicz and Taylor, 1989) (Huerta, A. & Rodriguez, A., 1992) (Segura, J.M. & Carol, I., 2008) is introduced for multidimensional consolidation problems with frictional contacts and the corresponding constitutive models (Pastor & Zienkiewicz, 1986) (Fu & Liu, 2011). An experimental methodology is presented for the laboratory test and material characterization (Castro 1969) (Bahda 1997) (Been & Jefferies 2006) using Hostun sands as reference hydraulic fill. A series of singular interaction shear tests for the interface calibration is included. Finally, a specific model algorithm for the solution of the set of differential equations governing the problem is presented. The process of consolidation and settlements involves a comprehensive simulation of the transient process of decantation and the build‐up of the silo effect in cells and certain phenomena related to self‐compaction and liquefaction. For this, an implementation of a 2D axi‐syimmetric coupled model with continuum and interface elements, aimed at simulating conditions and self‐weight consolidation of hydraulic fills once placed into floating caisson cells or close to retaining structures. This basically concerns a loose granular soil with a negligible initial effective stress level at the onset of the process. The implementation requires a specific numerical algorithm as well as specific constitutive models for both the continuum and the interface elements. The simulation of implementation procedures for the fills has required the modification of the algorithm so that a numerical representation of these procedures is carried out. A comparison of the results for the different procedures is interesting for the global analysis. Furthermore, the continuous updating of the model provides an insightful logging of variable profiles such as density, void ratio and solid fraction profiles, total and excess pore pressure, stresses and strains. This will lead to a better understanding of complex phenomena such as the transient gradient in lateral pressures due to silo effect in saturated soils. Interesting model and literature comparisons for the self‐weight consolidation (Fredlund, Donaldson, & Gitirana, 2009) and the silo effect results (Puertos del Estado (2006), EuroCode (2006), Japan Tech, Stands. (2009)). This study closes with the design of a decantation column prototype with frictional walls as the main future line of research.

Some aspects of lubrication in heavy regimes: thermal effects, stability and turbulence

In this work, a combination of numerical methods applied to thermohydrodynamic lubrication problems with cavitation is presented. It should be emphasized the difficulty of the nonlinear mathematical coupled model involving a free boundary problem, but also the simplicity of the algorithms employed to solve it. So, finite element discretizations for the hydrodynamic and thermal equations combined with upwind techniques for the convection terms and duality methods for nonlinear features are proposed. Additionally, a model describing the movement of the shaft is provided. Considering the shaft as a rigid body this model will consist of an ODE system relating acceleration of the center of gravity and external and pressure loads. The numerical experiments of mechanical stability try to clarify the position of the neutral stability curve. Finally, a rotating machine for ship propulsion involving both axial and radial bearings operating with nonconventional lubricants (seawater to avoid environmental pollution) is analyzed by using laminar and turbulent inertial flows.

Surface wind-stress threshold for glacial Atlantic overturning

Using a coupled model of intermediate complexity the sensitivity of the last glacial maximum (LGM) Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) to the strength of surface wind-stress is investigated. A threshold is found below which North Atlantic deep water formation (DWF) takes place south of Greenland and the AMOC is relatively weak. Above this threshold, DWF occurs north of the Greenland-Scotland ridge, leading to a vigorous AMOC. This nonlinear behavior is explained through enhanced salt transport by the wind-driven gyre circulation and the overturning itself. Both pattern and magnitude of the Nordic Sea's temperature difference between strong and weak AMOC states are consistent with those reconstructed for abrupt climate changes of the last glacial period. Our results thus point to a potentially relevant role of surface winds in these phenomena.

Investigating the causes of the response of the thermohaline circulation to past and future climate changes

The Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) is an important part of the earth's climate system. Previous research has shown large uncertainties in simulating future changes in this critical system. The simulated THC response to idealized freshwater perturbations and the associated climate changes have been intercompared as an activity of World Climate Research Program (WCRP) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project/Paleo-Modeling Intercomparison Project (CMIP/PMIP) committees. This intercomparison among models ranging from the earth system models of intermediate complexity (EMICs) to the fully coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) seeks to document and improve understanding of the causes of the wide variations in the modeled THC response. The robustness of particular simulation features has been evaluated across the model results. In response to 0.1-Sv (1 Sv equivalent to 10^6 ms^3 s^-1) freshwater input in the northern North Atlantic, the multimodel ensemble mean THC weakens by 30% after 100 yr. All models simulate sonic weakening of the THC, but no model simulates a complete shutdown of the THC. The multimodel ensemble indicates that the surface air temperature could present a complex anomaly pattern with cooling south of Greenland and warming over the Barents and Nordic Seas. The Atlantic ITCZ tends to shift southward. In response to 1.0-Sv freshwater input, the THC switches off rapidly in all model simulations. A large cooling occurs over the North Atlantic. The annual mean Atlantic ITCZ moves into the Southern Hemisphere. Models disagree in terms of the reversibility of the THC after its shutdown. In general, the EMICs and AOGCMs obtain similar THC responses and climate changes with more pronounced and sharper patterns in the AOGCMs.

Integrated Surface-Ground Water Modeling in Wetlands With Improved Methods to Simulate Vegetative Resistance to Flow

This dissertation focused on developing an integrated surface – subsurface hydrologic simulation numerical model by programming and testing the coupling of the USGS MODFLOW-2005 Groundwater Flow Process (GWF) package (USGS, 2005) with the 2D surface water routing model: FLO-2D (O’Brien et al., 1993). The coupling included the necessary procedures to numerically integrate and verify both models as a single computational software system that will heretofore be referred to as WHIMFLO-2D (Wetlands Hydrology Integrated Model). An improved physical formulation of flow resistance through vegetation in shallow waters based on the concept of drag force was also implemented for the simulations of floodplains, while the use of the classical methods (e.g., Manning, Chezy, Darcy-Weisbach) to calculate flow resistance has been maintained for the canals and deeper waters. A preliminary demonstration exercise WHIMFLO-2D in an existing field site was developed for the Loxahatchee Impoundment Landscape Assessment (LILA), an 80 acre area, located at the Arthur R. Marshall Loxahatchee National Wild Life Refuge in Boynton Beach, Florida. After applying a number of simplifying assumptions, results have illustrated the ability of the model to simulate the hydrology of a wetland. In this illustrative case, a comparison between measured and simulated stages level showed an average error of 0.31% with a maximum error of 2.8%. Comparison of measured and simulated groundwater head levels showed an average error of 0.18% with a maximum of 2.9%.

Present-day Pattern Variations in the Central and Eastern Pacific El Nino

El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a cycle that is initiated in the equatorial Pacific Ocean and is recognized on interannual timescales by oscillating patterns in tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures (SST) and atmospheric circulations. Using correlation and regression analysis of datasets that include SST’s and other interdependent variables including precipitation, surface winds, sea level pressure, this research seeks to quantify recent changes in ENSO behavior. Specifically, the amplitude, frequency of occurrence, and spatial characteristics (i.e. events with maximum amplitude in the Central Pacific versus the Eastern Pacific) are investigated. The research is based on the question; “Are the statistics of ENSO changing due to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations?” Our hypothesis is that the present-day changes in amplitude, frequency, and spatial characteristics of ENSO are determined by the natural variability of the ocean-atmosphere climate system, not the observed changes in the radiative forcing due to change in the concentrations of greenhouse gases. Statistical analysis, including correlation and regression analysis, is performed on observational ocean and atmospheric datasets available from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and coupled model simulations from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (phase 5, CMIP5). Datasets are analyzed with a particular focus on ENSO over the last thirty years. Understanding the observed changes in the ENSO phenomenon over recent decades has a worldwide significance. ENSO is the largest climate signal on timescales of 2 - 7 years and affects billions of people via atmospheric teleconnections that originate in the tropical Pacific. These teleconnections explain why changes in ENSO can lead to climate variations in areas including North and South America, Asia, and Australia. For the United States, El Niño events are linked to decreased number of hurricanes in the Atlantic basin, reduction in precipitation in the Pacific Northwest, and increased precipitation throughout the southern United Stated during winter months. Understanding variability in the amplitude, frequency, and spatial characteristics of ENSO is crucial for decision makers who must adapt where regional ecology and agriculture are affected by ENSO.