Fuzzy analysis: a vague way of dealing with uncertainty in real estate analysis?

Risk and uncertainty are, to say the least, poorly considered by most individuals involved in real estate analysis - in both development and investment appraisal. Surveyors continue to express 'uncertainty' about the value (risk) of using relatively objective methods of analysis to account for these factors. These methods attempt to identify the risk elements more explicitly. Conventionally this is done by deriving probability distributions for the uncontrolled variables in the system. A suggested 'new' way of "being able to express our uncertainty or slight vagueness about some of the qualitative judgements and not entirely certain data required in the course of the problem..." uses the application of fuzzy logic. This paper discusses and demonstrates the terminology and methodology of fuzzy analysis. In particular it attempts a comparison of the procedures with those used in 'conventional' risk analysis approaches and critically investigates whether a fuzzy approach offers an alternative to the use of probability based analysis for dealing with aspects of risk and uncertainty in real estate analysis

Aircraft-based observations of air–sea turbulent fluxes around the British Isles

Observations of turbulent fluxes of momentum, heat and moisture from low-level aircraft data are presented. Fluxes are calculated using the eddy covariance technique from flight legs typically ∼40 m above the sea surface. Over 400 runs of 2 min (∼12 km) from 26 flights are evaluated. Flight legs are mainly from around the British Isles although a small number are from around Iceland and Norway. Sea-surface temperature (SST) observations from two on-board sensors (the ARIES interferometer and a Heimann radiometer) and a satellite-based analysis (OSTIA) are used to determine an improved SST estimate. Most of the observations are from moderate to strong wind speed conditions, the latter being a regime short of validation data for the bulk flux algorithms that are necessary for numerical weather prediction and climate models. Observations from both statically stable and unstable atmospheric boundary-layer conditions are presented. There is a particular focus on several flights made as part of the DIAMET (Diabatic influence on mesoscale structures in extratropical storms) project. Observed neutral exchange coefficients are in the same range as previous studies, although higher for the momentum coefficient, and are broadly consistent with the COARE 3.0 bulk flux algorithm, as well as the surface exchange schemes used in the ECMWF and Met Office models. Examining the results as a function of aircraft heading shows higher fluxes and exchange coefficients in the across-wind direction, compared to along-wind (although this comparison is limited by the relatively small number of along-wind legs). A multi-resolution spectral decomposition technique demonstrates a lengthening of spatial scales in along-wind variances in along-wind legs, implying the boundary-layer eddies are elongated in the along-wind direction. The along-wind runs may not be able to adequately capture the full range of turbulent exchange that is occurring because elongation places the largest eddies outside of the run length.

Blending systems thinking approaches for organisational analysis: reviewing child protection in England

This paper concerns the innovative use of a blend of systems thinking ideas in the ‘Munro Review of Child Protection’, a high-profile examination of child protection activities in England, conducted for the Department for Education. We go ‘behind the scenes’ to describe the OR methodologies and processes employed. The circumstances that led to the Review are outlined. Three specific contributions that systems thinking made to the Review are then described. First, the systems-based analysis and visualisation of how a ‘compliance culture’ had grown up. Second the creation of a large, complex systems map of current operations and the effects of past policies on them. Third, how the map gave shape to the range of issues the Review addressed and acted as an organising framework for the systemically coherent set of recommendations made. The paper closes with an outline of the main implementation steps taken so far to create a child protection system with the critically reflective properties of a learning organisation, and methodological reflections on the benefits of systems thinking to support organisational analysis.

Gender and the business cycle: an analysis of labour markets in the US and UK

Starting from an improved understanding of the relationship between gender labour market stocks and the business cycle, we analyse the contributing role of flows in the US and UK. Focusing on the post 2008 recession period, the subsequent greater rise in male unemployment can mostly be explained by a less cyclical response of flows between employment and unemployment for women, especially the entry into unemployment. Across gender and country, the inactivity rate is generally not sensitive to the state of the economy. However, a flows based analysis reveals a greater importance of the participation margin over the cycle. Changes in the rates of flow between unemployment and inactivity can each account for around 0.8-1.1 percentage points of the rise in US male and female unemployment rates during the latest downturn. For the UK, although the participation flow to unemployment similarly contributed to the increase of the female unemployment rate, this was not the case for men. The countercyclical flow rate from inactivity to employment was also more significant for women, especially in the US, where it accounted for approximately all of the fall in employment, compared with only 40% for men.

Comparative Analysis of 2-Flap Designs for Extraction of Mandibular Third Molar

Objective: The objective of the study was to analyze 2-flap designs for surgical extraction of third molar, evaluating the periodontal status of the second lower molar.Study Design: Forty-five lower third molars were extracted from 24 patients. In 23 teeth, a vertical incision to the mandibular ramus was used (technique A), whereas 22 teeth were submitted to classic L-shaped flap (technique B) with controls at 60 and 90 days postoperatively.Results: Pearson correlation coefficient analysis showed a significant correlation only between immediate preoperative probing depth variables from techniques A and B in the studied surfaces. Statistical significances in the preoperative (vestibular) and postoperative day 60 (distovestibular and vestibular) were noted. In contrast, Student t-test showed no statistical difference in probing depths between preoperative and postoperative values, as well as no statistically significant difference regarding the type of incision alone.Conclusions: Technique A allowed a less traumatic surgery, guaranteeing a more comfortable postoperative period.

Genetic variability in natural populations of Zeyheria montana mart. from the Brazilian Cerrado

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Utilização de procedimentos multivariados na produtividade agrícola e climatica na região sudeste do Estado de Mato Grosso

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

JVM-based Techniques for Improving Java Observability

Observability measures the support of computer systems to accurately capture, analyze, and present (collectively observe) the internal information about the systems. Observability frameworks play important roles for program understanding, troubleshooting, performance diagnosis, and optimizations. However, traditional solutions are either expensive or coarse-grained, consequently compromising their utility in accommodating today’s increasingly complex software systems. New solutions are emerging for VM-based languages due to the full control language VMs have over program executions. Existing such solutions, nonetheless, still lack flexibility, have high overhead, or provide limited context information for developing powerful dynamic analyses. In this thesis, we present a VM-based infrastructure, called marker tracing framework (MTF), to address the deficiencies in the existing solutions for providing better observability for VM-based languages. MTF serves as a solid foundation for implementing fine-grained low-overhead program instrumentation. Specifically, MTF allows analysis clients to: 1) define custom events with rich semantics ; 2) specify precisely the program locations where the events should trigger; and 3) adaptively enable/disable the instrumentation at runtime. In addition, MTF-based analysis clients are more powerful by having access to all information available to the VM. To demonstrate the utility and effectiveness of MTF, we present two analysis clients: 1) dynamic typestate analysis with adaptive online program analysis (AOPA); and 2) selective probabilistic calling context analysis (SPCC). In addition, we evaluate the runtime performance of MTF and the typestate client with the DaCapo benchmarks. The results show that: 1) MTF has acceptable runtime overhead when tracing moderate numbers of marker events; and 2) AOPA is highly effective in reducing the event frequency for the dynamic typestate analysis; and 3) language VMs can be exploited to offer greater observability.

Perturbative analysis of the triply differential cross section and circular dichroism in photo-double-ionization of He

We extend application of our lowest-order perturbative approach (in electron-electron correlation) for analysis of photo-double-ionization (PDI) of He [A.Y. Istomin et al., J. Phys. B 35, L543 (2002)] to excess energies up to 450 eV and to analysis of circular dichroism. We find that account of electron correlation in the final state to first order provides predictions for the triply differential cross section and circular dichroism that are in reasonable agreement with absolute data for excess energies up to 80 eV. For an excess energy of 450 eV, account of electron correlation in both initial and final states is necessary and the predicted triply differential cross sections are in agreement with absolute data only for large mutual ejection angles. We find that at excess energies of a few tens of eV, the PDI is dominated by the "virtual" knock-out mechanism, while the "direct" (on-shell) knock-out process gives only small contributions for large mutual ejection angles. As a result, we conclude that the circular dichroism effect at these energies originates from the nonzero electron Coulomb phase shifts.

A fragment-based approach for ligand binding affinity and selectivity for the liver X receptor beta

Selective modulation of liver X receptor beta (LXR beta) has been recognized as an important approach to prevent or reverse the atherosclerotic process. In the present work, we have developed robust conformation-independent fragment-based quantitative structure-activity and structure-selectivity relationship models for a series of quinolines and cinnolines as potent modulators of the two LXR sub-types. The generated models were then used to predict the potency of an external test set and the predicted values were in good agreement with the experimental results, indicating the potential of the models for untested compounds. The final 2D molecular recognition patterns obtained were integrated to 3D structure-based molecular modeling studies to provide useful insights into the chemical and structural determinants for increased LXR beta binding affinity and selectivity. (C) 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The use of image analysis systems for the assesment of zooplankton physiological rates and carbon fluxes

Trabajo realizado por: Garijo, J. C., Hernández León, S.

Corpora in the Social Sciences- How corpus-based appraches can support qualitative interview analyses

[EN]Qualitative and quantitative research approaches are often considered as incompatible, and when they are brought together in a study, the analyses often stay within the realm of the same research field. The study at hand aims at combining the two methods from the perspectives of different disciplines and tries to determine to which degree a corpus-based analysis might support the traditional content-focused approach to qualitative data and render additional results.

Secondary Microseisms Characterization and Green’s Function Extraction at the Larderello-Travale Geothermal Field (Italy)

Over the past ten years, the cross-correlation of long-time series of ambient seismic noise (ASN) has been widely adopted to extract the surface-wave part of the Green’s Functions (GF). This stochastic procedure relies on the assumption that ASN wave-field is diffuse and stationary. At frequencies <1Hz, the ASN is mainly composed by surface-waves, whose origin is attributed to the sea-wave climate. Consequently, marked directional properties may be observed, which call for accurate investigation about location and temporal evolution of the ASN-sources before attempting any GF retrieval. Within this general context, this thesis is aimed at a thorough investigation about feasibility and robustness of the noise-based methods toward the imaging of complex geological structures at the local (∼10-50km) scale. The study focused on the analysis of an extended (11 months) seismological data set collected at the Larderello-Travale geothermal field (Italy), an area for which the underground geological structures are well-constrained thanks to decades of geothermal exploration. Focusing on the secondary microseism band (SM;f>0.1Hz), I first investigate the spectral features and the kinematic properties of the noise wavefield using beamforming analysis, highlighting a marked variability with time and frequency. For the 0.1-0.3Hz frequency band and during Spring- Summer-time, the SMs waves propagate with high apparent velocities and from well-defined directions, likely associated with ocean-storms in the south- ern hemisphere. Conversely, at frequencies >0.3Hz the distribution of back- azimuths is more scattered, thus indicating that this frequency-band is the most appropriate for the application of stochastic techniques. For this latter frequency interval, I tested two correlation-based methods, acting in the time (NCF) and frequency (modified-SPAC) domains, respectively yielding esti- mates of the group- and phase-velocity dispersions. Velocity data provided by the two methods are markedly discordant; comparison with independent geological and geophysical constraints suggests that NCF results are more robust and reliable.

Multivariate analysis methods in the search for the Higgs boson produced in association with top pairs at the ATLAS experiment at LHC.

The Large Hadron Collider, located at the CERN laboratories in Geneva, is the largest particle accelerator in the world. One of the main research fields at LHC is the study of the Higgs boson, the latest particle discovered at the ATLAS and CMS experiments. Due to the small production cross section for the Higgs boson, only a substantial statistics can offer the chance to study this particle properties. In order to perform these searches it is desirable to avoid the contamination of the signal signature by the number and variety of the background processes produced in pp collisions at LHC. Much account assumes the study of multivariate methods which, compared to the standard cut-based analysis, can enhance the signal selection of a Higgs boson produced in association with a top quark pair through a dileptonic final state (ttH channel). The statistics collected up to 2012 is not sufficient to supply a significant number of ttH events; however, the methods applied in this thesis will provide a powerful tool for the increasing statistics that will be collected during the next LHC data taking.

Untersuchung von Mischungs- und Transportprozessen in der oberen Troposphäre - unteren Stratosphäre basierend auf in-situ Spurengasmessungen

Die obere Troposphäre / untere Stratosphäre (UTLS: Upper Troposphere / Lower Stratosphere)ist die Übergangsgregion zwischen den dynamisch, chemisch und mikrophysikalisch sehr verschiedenen untersten Atmosphärenschichten, der Troposphäre und der Stratosphäre. Strahlungsaktive Spurengase, wie zum Beispiel Wasserdampf (H2O), Ozon (O3) oder Kohlenstoffdioxid (CO2), und Wolken in der UTLS beeinflussen das Strahlungsbudget der Atmosphäre und das globale Klima. Mögliche Veränderungen in den Verteilungen und Konzentrationen dieser Spurengase modifizieren den Strahlungsantrieb der Atmosphäre und können zum beobachteten Klimawandel beitragen. Ziel dieser Arbeit ist es, Austausch- und Mischungsprozesse innerhalb der UTLS besser zu verstehen und damit Veränderungen der Spurengaszusammensetzung dieser Region genauer prognostizieren zu können. Grundlage hierfür bilden flugzeuggetragene in-situ Spurengasmessungen in der UTLS, welche während der Flugzeugmesskampagnen TACTS / ESMVal 2012 und AIRTOSS - ICE 2013 durchgeführt wurden. Hierbei wurde bei den Messungen von AIRTOSS - ICE 2013 das im Rahmen dieser Arbeit aufgebaute UMAQS (University of Mainz Airborne QCLbased Spectrometer) - Instrument zur Messung der troposphärischen Spurengase Distickstoffmonoxid (N2O) und Kohlenstoffmonoxid (CO) eingesetzt. Dieses erreicht bei einer zeitlichen Auflösung von 1 s eine Messunsicherheit von 0,39 ppbv und 1,39 ppbv der N2O bzw. CO-Mischungsverhältnisse. Die hohe Zeitauflösung und Messgenauigkeit der N2O- und CO- Daten erlaubt die Untersuchung von kleinskaligen Austauschprozessen zwischen Troposphäre und Stratosphäre im Bereich der Tropopause auf räumlichen Skalen kleiner 200 m. Anhand der N2O-Daten von AIRTOSS - ICE 2013 können in-situ detektierte Zirruspartikel in eisübersättigter Luft oberhalb der N2O-basierten chemischen Tropopause nachgewiesen werden. Mit Hilfe der N2O-CO-Korrelation sowie der Analyse von ECMWF-Modelldaten und der Berechnung von Rückwärtstrajektorien kann deren Existenz auf das irreversible Vermischen von troposphärischen und stratosphärischen Luftmassen zurückgeführt werden. Mit den in-situ Messungen von N2O, CO und CH4 (Methan) von TACTS und ESMVal 2012 werden die großräumigen Spurengasverteilungen bis zu einer potentiellen Temperatur von Theta = 410 K in der extratropischen Stratosphäre untersucht. Hierbei kann eine Verjüngung der Luftmassen in der extratropischen Stratosphäre mit Delta Theta > 30 K (relativ zur dynamischen Tropopause) über den Zeitraum der Messkampagne (28.08.2012 - 27.09.2012) nachgewiesen werden. Die Korrelation von N2O mit O3 zeigt, dass diese Verjüngung aufgrund des verstärkten Eintrages von Luftmassen aus der tropischen unteren Stratosphäre verursacht wird. Diese werden über den flachen Zweig der Brewer-Dobson-Zirkulation auf Zeitskalen von wenigen Wochen in die extratropische Stratosphäre transportiert. Anhandrnder Analyse der CO-O3-Korrelation eines Messfluges vom 30.08.2012 wird das irreversible Einmischen von Luftmassen aus der tropischen Stratosphäre in die Extratropen auf Isentropen mit Theta > 380 K identifiziert. Rückwärtstrajektorien zeigen, dass der Ursprung der eingemischten tropischen Luftmassen im Bereich der sommerlichen Antizyklone des asiatischen Monsuns liegt.