The possibility for continuous growth with exhaustible resources: unknowingly an agreement has been reached, but it may not be correct

It is the size of the elasticity of substitution that has been the central issue in the long debate over the possibility of continuous growth in the presence of exhaustible resources. This paper reviews the debate and comes to the surprising conclusion that , unnoticed by the pessimists, the optimist position has gradually evolved so that it now approximates that of the pessimists. The paper also summarises some preliminary work by the author that indicates that this common position may not be correct

Memory in contracts: the experience of the EBRD (1991-2003)

The objective of this paper is to identify the role of memory in repeated contracts with moral hazard in financial intermediation. We use the database we have built containing the contracts signed by the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development EBRD between 1991 and 2003. Our framework is a standard setting of repeated moral hazard. After having controlled for the adverse selection component, we are able to prove that client reputation is the discrimination device according to which the bank fixes the amount of credit for the established clients. Our results unambiguously isolate the effect of memory in the bank's lending decisions.

Long-term outcome after cognitive and behavioral regression in nonlesional epilepsy with continuous spike-waves during slow-wave sleep.

PURPOSE: To present the long-term follow-up of 10 adolescents and young adults with documented cognitive and behavioral regression as children due to nonlesional focal, mainly frontal, epilepsy with continuous spike-waves during slow wave sleep (CSWS). METHODS: Past medical and electroencephalography (EEG) data were reviewed and neuropsychological tests exploring main cognitive functions were administered. KEY FINDINGS: After a mean duration of follow-up of 15.6 years (range, 8-23 years), none of the 10 patients had recovered fully, but four regained borderline to normal intelligence and were almost independent. Patients with prolonged global intellectual regression had the worst outcome, whereas those with more specific and short-lived deficits recovered best. The marked behavioral disorders resolved in all but one patient. Executive functions were neither severely nor homogenously affected. Three patients with a frontal syndrome during the active phase (AP) disclosed only mild residual executive and social cognition deficits. The main cognitive gains occurred shortly after the AP, but qualitative improvements continued to occur. Long-term outcome correlated best with duration of CSWS. SIGNIFICANCE: Our findings emphasize that cognitive recovery after cessation of CSWS depends on the severity and duration of the initial regression. None of our patients had major executive and social cognition deficits with preserved intelligence, as reported in adults with early destructive lesions of the frontal lobes. Early recognition of epilepsy with CSWS and rapid introduction of effective therapy are crucial for a best possible outcome.

Choice of Contracts in the British National Health Service: An Empirical Study

Following major reforms of the British National Health Service (NHS) in 1990, the roles of purchasing and providing health services were separated, with the relationship between purchasers and providers governed by contracts. Using a mixed multinomial logit analysis, we show how this policy shift led to a selection of contracts that is consistent with the predictions of a simple model, based on contract theory, in which the characteristics of the health services being purchased and of the contracting parties influence the choice of contract form. The paper thus provides evidence in support of the practical relevance of theory in understanding health care market reform.

Adaptive Continuous time Markov Chain Approximation Model to General Jump-Diusions

We propose a non-equidistant Q rate matrix formula and an adaptive numerical algorithm for a continuous time Markov chain to approximate jump-diffusions with affine or non-affine functional specifications. Our approach also accommodates state-dependent jump intensity and jump distribution, a flexibility that is very hard to achieve with other numerical methods. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test shows that the proposed Markov chain transition density converges to the one given by the likelihood expansion formula as in Ait-Sahalia (2008). We provide numerical examples for European stock option pricing in Black and Scholes (1973), Merton (1976) and Kou (2002).

A Simple Characterization of Dynamic Completeness in Continuous Time

This paper investigates dynamic completeness of financial markets in which the underlying risk process is a multi-dimensional Brownian motion and the risky securities dividends geometric Brownian motions. A sufficient condition, that the instantaneous dispersion matrix of the relative dividends is non-degenerate, was established recently in the literature for single-commodity, pure-exchange economies with many heterogenous agents, under the assumption that the intermediate flows of all dividends, utilities, and endowments are analytic functions. For the current setting, a different mathematical argument in which analyticity is not needed shows that a slightly weaker condition suffices for general pricing kernels. That is, dynamic completeness obtains irrespectively of preferences, endowments, and other structural elements (such as whether or not the budget constraints include only pure exchange, whether or not the time horizon is finite with lump-sum dividends available on the terminal date, etc.)

Dynamic Relational Contracts under Complete Information

This paper considers a long-term relationship between two agents who both undertake a costly action or investment that together produces a joint benefit. Agents have an opportunity to expropriate some of the joint benefit for their own use. Two cases are considered: (i) where agents are risk neutral and are subject to limited liability constraints and (ii) where agents are risk averse, have quasi-linear preferences in consumption and actions but where limited liability constraints do not bind. The question asked is how to structure the investments and division of the surplus over time so as to avoid expropriation. In the risk-neutral case, there may be an initial phase in which one agent overinvests and the other underinvests. However, both actions and surplus converge monotonically to a stationary state in which there is no overinvestment and surplus is at its maximum subject to the constraints. In the risk-averse case, there is no overinvestment. For this case, we establish that dynamics may or may not be monotonic depending on whether or not it is possible to sustain a first-best allocation. If the first-best allocation is not sustainable, then there is a trade-off between risk sharing and surplus maximization. In general, surplus will not be at its constrained maximum even in the long run.

Structured and unstructured continuous models for Wolbachia infections

We introduce and investigate a series of models for an infection of a diplodiploid host species by the bacterial endosymbiont Wolbachia. The continuous models are characterized by partial vertical transmission, cytoplasmic incompatibility and fitness costs associated with the infection. A particular aspect of interest is competitions between mutually incompatible strains. We further introduce an age-structured model that takes into account different fertility and mortality rates at different stages of the life cycle of the individuals. With only a few parameters, the ordinary differential equation models exhibit already interesting dynamics and can be used to predict criteria under which a strain of bacteria is able to invade a population. Interestingly, but not surprisingly, the age-structured model shows significant differences concerning the existence and stability of equilibrium solutions compared to the unstructured model.

Fractional hepatic de novo lipogenesis in healthy subjects during near-continuous oral nutrition and bed rest: a comparison with published data in artificially fed, critically ill patients.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: In critically ill patients, fractional hepatic de novo lipogenesis increases in proportion to carbohydrate administration during isoenergetic nutrition. In this study, we sought to determine whether this increase may be the consequence of continuous enteral nutrition and bed rest. We, therefore, measured fractional hepatic de novo lipogenesis in a group of 12 healthy subjects during near-continuous oral feeding (hourly isoenergetic meals with a liquid formula containing 55% carbohydrate). In eight subjects, near-continuous enteral nutrition and bed rest were applied over a 10 h period. In the other four subjects, it was extended to 34 h. Fractional hepatic de novo lipogenesis was measured by infusing(13) C-labeled acetate and monitoring VLDL-(13)C palmitate enrichment with mass isotopomer distribution analysis. Fractional hepatic de novo lipogenesis was 3.2% (range 1.5-7.5%) in the eight subjects after 10 h of near continuous nutrition and 1.6% (range 1.3-2.0%) in the four subjects after 34 h of near-continuous nutrition and bed rest. This indicates that continuous nutrition and physical inactivity do not increase hepatic de novo lipogenesis. Fractional hepatic de novo lipogenesis previously reported in critically ill patients under similar nutritional conditions (9.3%) (range 5.3-15.8%) was markedly higher than in healthy subjects (P<0.001). These data from healthy subjects indicate that fractional hepatic de novo lipogenesis is increased in critically ill patients.

Rigorous derivation of a nonlinear diffusion equation as fast-reaction limit of a continuous coagulation-fragmentation model with diffusion

Weak solutions of the spatially inhomogeneous (diffusive) Aizenmann-Bak model of coagulation-breakup within a bounded domain with homogeneous Neumann boundary conditions are shown to converge, in the fast reaction limit, towards local equilibria determined by their mass. Moreover, this mass is the solution of a nonlinear diffusion equation whose nonlinearity depends on the (size-dependent) diffusion coefficient. Initial data are assumed to have integrable zero order moment and square integrable first order moment in size, and finite entropy. In contrast to our previous result [CDF2], we are able to show the convergence without assuming uniform bounds from above and below on the number density of clusters.

Memory in contracts: the experience of the EBRD (1991-2003)

The objective of this paper is to identify the role of memory as a screening device in repeated contracts with asymmetric information in financial intermediation. We use an original dataset from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development. We propose a simple empirical method to capture the role of memory using the client's reputation. Our results unambiguously isolate the dominant effect of memory on the bank's lending decisions over market factors in the case of established clients.

Failure of vancomycin continuous infusion against experimental endocarditis due to vancomycin-intermediate Staphylococcus aureus.

Continuous infusion of vancomycin was evaluated against experimental endocarditis due to heterogeneous vancomycin-intermediate Staphylococcus aureus (hVISA) and VISA. Animals were infected with hVISA PC1 (vancomycin MIC, 2 mg/liter) or VISA PC3 (vancomycin MIC, 8 mg/liter) and treated for 5 days with constant serum levels of 20 or 40 mg/liter. Vancomycin continuous infusion was unsuccessful, as 20 mg/liter was barely active against PC1 (6 of 13 sterile vegetations) and 40 mg/liter failed against PC3 (2 of 9 sterile vegetations).