Consumers Performance Evaluation of the Participation in Demand Response Programs Using Baseline Methods

Demand response has gain increasing importance in the context of competitive electricity markets environment. The use of demand resources is also advantageous in the context of smart grid operation. In addition to the need of new business models for integrating demand response, adequate methods are necessary for an accurate determination of the consumers’ performance evaluation after the participation in a demand response event. The present paper makes a comparison between some of the existing baseline methods related to the consumers’ performance evaluation, comparing the results obtained with these methods and also with a method proposed by the authors of the paper. A case study demonstrates the application of the referred methods to real consumption data belonging to a consumer connected to a distribution network.

Analysis of Consumption Data to Detect Commercial Losses Using Performance Evaluation Methods in a Smart Grid

Electric power networks, namely distribution networks, have been suffering several changes during the last years due to changes in the power systems operation, towards the implementation of smart grids. Several approaches to the operation of the resources have been introduced, as the case of demand response, making use of the new capabilities of the smart grids. In the initial levels of the smart grids implementation reduced amounts of data are generated, namely consumption data. The methodology proposed in the present paper makes use of demand response consumers’ performance evaluation methods to determine the expected consumption for a given consumer. Then, potential commercial losses are identified using monthly historic consumption data. Real consumption data is used in the case study to demonstrate the application of the proposed method.

Performance of state space and ARIMA models for consumer retail sales forecasting

Forecasting future sales is one of the most important issues that is beyond all strategic and planning decisions in effective operations of retail businesses. For profitable retail businesses, accurate demand forecasting is crucial in organizing and planning production, purchasing, transportation and labor force. Retail sales series belong to a special type of time series that typically contain trend and seasonal patterns, presenting challenges in developing effective forecasting models. This work compares the forecasting performance of state space models and ARIMA models. The forecasting performance is demonstrated through a case study of retail sales of five different categories of women footwear: Boots, Booties, Flats, Sandals and Shoes. On both methodologies the model with the minimum value of Akaike's Information Criteria for the in-sample period was selected from all admissible models for further evaluation in the out-of-sample. Both one-step and multiple-step forecasts were produced. The results show that when an automatic algorithm the overall out-of-sample forecasting performance of state space and ARIMA models evaluated via RMSE, MAE and MAPE is quite similar on both one-step and multi-step forecasts. We also conclude that state space and ARIMA produce coverage probabilities that are close to the nominal rates for both one-step and multi-step forecasts.

Evaluation of the impact of L’Oréal’s acquisition of The Body Shop on both brands

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Evaluation of the welfare impact of regulating mobile termination rates in Portugal

Following the European Commission’s 2009 Recommendation on the Regulatory Treatment of Fixed and Mobile Termination Rates in the EU, the Portuguese regulatory authority (ANACOM) decided to reduce termination prices in mobile networks to their long-run incremental cost (LRIC). Nevertheless, no serious quantitative assessment of the potential effects of this decision was carried out. In this paper, we adapt and calibrate the Harbord and Hoernig (2014) model of the UK mobile telephony market to the Portuguese reality, and simulate the likely impact on consumer surplus, profits and welfare of four different regulatory approaches: pure LRIC, reciprocal termination charges with fixed networks, “bill & keep”, and asymmetric termination rates. Our results show that reducing MTRs does increase social welfare, profits and consumer surplus in the fixed market, but mobile subscribers are seriously harmed by this decision.

How to improve consumer decision skills in children? A case study of an intervention with institutionalized children

The aim of this study is to assess the institutionalized children’s skills as consumers but also to assess how we can improve their knowledge through an intervention. The sample was composed of two subgroups (38 institutionalized children and 36 non-institutionalized children). In order to assess children’s knowledge, a questionnaire and an interview were used. The method used as intervention was a 30-minute class. Results suggested that institutionalized children have lower levels of knowledge regarding consumption-related practices and lower levels of accuracy at estimating prices than non-institutionalized children. However, results also showed that the attitudes of institutionalized children towards advertising and making decisions based on price/quantity evaluation or based on the use of the same strategy in different situations are not significantly different from the non-institutionalized children. Regarding the intervention, it was possible to conclude that one class is not the best method to improve children’s knowledge. Institutionalized children need a longer and more practical intervention.

The impact of in-store activations (communication) in the consumer's emotions

Consumer behavior: Sport Zone. The analysis of "The impact of in-store activations (communication) in the consumer's emotions" Several studies have been conducted on the consumer behavior. This study aims to analyze and understand which factors are important to consumers’ emotions when the purchase decision occurs, the brand awareness, brand loyalty and the campaigns/activations’ impact in the above factors. Two research surveys were conducted to realize this study, the first online and the other was an interview to the Agency Up Partner who conceived and put into practice this Fitness campaign. First of all, was the consumer’s survey, a survey with 100 answers, to understand which factors are taken into account when a campaign in-store is held, in which the atmosphere is mainly used to arouse consumer’s desire to purchase, and also emotions. Second, the interview with the agency was realized to find out on what they were based on when they delineate it, and if the raise of emotions was taken into account in the origin of it. Concluding, emotions have a significant impact on formation of consumer in-store behavior, satisfaction and loyalty. As we could assay through of how this Fitness campaign was carried out as well as the optimal feedback received by consumers, improved attention over in-store marketing activity strongly influences consumer behavior at the point of purchase. “Sport Zone: A new store concept where the love for sports is combined with functionality”

Analytical evaluation of fining treatments for white wines contaminated by Ochratoxin A

Mycotoxins are toxic secondary metabolites produced by certain molds. Ochratoxin A (OTA) is one of the most relevant. Its chemical structure is a dihydro-isocoumarin connected at the 7-carboxy group to a molecule of L--phenylalanine via an amide bond. OTA in wine is a risk to consumer health [1]. According to the Regulation No. 123/2005 of the European Commission, the maximum limit for OTA in wine is 2 µg/kg [2]. Then, it is important to control its occurrence. So, the aim of this work was to know the effect of different fining agents on OTA removal from white wine.

Critical evaluation of outcome scales to assess outcome after lateral ankle ligament repair

Introduction: Several scores are commonly used to evaluate patients' postoperative satisfaction after lateral ankle ligament repair, including: AOFAS, FAAM, CAIT and CAIS. Comparing published studies in the literature is difficult, as the same patient can have markedly different results depending on which scoring system is used. The current study aims to address this gap in the literature by developing a system to compare these tests, to allow better analysis and comparison of published studies. Patients and methods: This is a retrospective cohort study of 47 patients following lateral ankle ligament repair using a modified Broström-Gould technique. All patients were operated between 2005 and 2010 by a single surgeon and followed the same post operative rehabilitation protocol. Six patients were excluded from the study because of concomitant surgery. Patients were assessed by an independent observer. We used the Pearson correlation coefficient to analyse the concordance of the scores, as well as scatter plots to assess the linear relationship between them. Results: A linear distribution between the scores was found when the results were analysed using scatter plots. We were thus able to use the Pearson correlation coefficient to evaluate the relationship between each of the different postoperative scores. The correlation was found to be above 0.5 in all cases except for the comparison between the CAIT and the FAAM for the activities of daily living (0.39). We were, therefore, able to compare the results obtained and assess the relative concordance of the scoring systems. The results showed that the more specific the scale is, the worst the score is and inversely. So the CAIT and the CAIS appeared to be more severe than the AOFAS and the FAAM measuring the activities of daily living. The sports subscale of the FAAM demonstrated intermediate results. Conclusion: This study outlines a system to compare different postoperative scores commonly used to evaluate outcome after ankle stabilization surgery. The impact of this study is that it makes comparison of published studies easier, even though they use a variety of different clinical scores, thus facilitating better outcome analysis of operative techniques.

Specialized pediatric palliative home care: a prospective evaluation.

Abstract Objectives: In Germany since 2007 children with advanced life-limiting diseases are eligible for Pediatric Palliative Home Care (PPHC), which is provided by newly established specialized PPHC teams. The objective of this study was to evaluate the acceptance and effectiveness of PPHC as perceived by the parents. Methods: Parents of children treated by the PPHC team based at the Munich University Hospital were eligible for this prospective nonrandomized study. The main topics of the two surveys (before and after involvement of the PPHC team) were the assessment of symptom control and quality of life (QoL) in children; and the parents' satisfaction with care, burden of patient care (Häusliche Pflegeskala, home care scale, HPS), anxiety and depression (Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale, HADS), and QoL (Quality of Life in Life-Threatening Illness-Family Carer Version, QOLLTI-F). Results: Of 43 families newly admitted to PPHC between April 2011 and June 2012, 40 were included in the study. The median interval between the first and second interview was 8.0 weeks. The involvement of the PPHC team led to a significant improvement of children's symptoms and QoL (P<0.001) as perceived by the parents; and the parents' own QoL and burden relief significantly increased (QOLLTI-F, P<0.001; 7-point change on a 10-point scale), while their psychological distress and burden significantly decreased (HADS, P<0.001; HPS, P<0.001). Conclusions: The involvement of specialized PPHC appears to lead to a substantial improvement in QoL of children and their parents, as experienced by the parents, and to lower the burden of home care for the parents of severely ill children.

Evaluation of a modified Broström-Gould procedure for treatment of chronic lateral ankle instability: A retrospective study with critical analysis of outcome scoring.

BACKGROUND: Chronic lateral ankle instability accounts for 20% of the ankle injuries. This study evaluates functional outcome of the modified Broström-Gould technique using suture anchors, with 4 different clinical scores. METHODS: A consecutive series of 41 patients were included with a minimum follow-up of one year. The function was assessed using 4 clinical scores including: the AOFAS for hind foot; the FAAM; the CAIT and the CAIS. RESULTS: Out of 41 patients; 27 patients were very satisfied, 11 satisfied and 3 were not satisfied. Ankle mobility returned to normal in 93% of patients. At follow-up the AOFAS was 89/100 (37-100), the FAAM 85/100% (35-100%), the CAIT 20/30 (5-30), and the CAIS 74/100% (27-100%). CONCLUSION: Outcome of modified Broström-Gould procedure is good with high satisfaction rate in terms of ankle mobility. The disparity in outcome of scores, signals towards the need of a standard evaluation system.

Managing Quality under Heterogeneous Consumer Demand and Product Quality, October 2005

Based on accepted advances in the marketing, economics, consumer behavior, and satisfaction literatures, we develop a micro-foundations model of a firm that needs to manage the quality of a product that is inherently heterogeneous in the presence of varying customer tastes or expectations for quality. Our model blends elements of the returns to quality, customer lifetime value, and service profit chain approaches to marketing. The model is then used to explain several empirical results pertaining to the marketing literature by explicitly articulating the trade-offs between customer satisfaction and costs (including opportunity costs) of quality. In this environment firms will find it optimal to allow some customers to go unsatisfied. We show that the relationship between the expected number of repeated purchases by an individual customer is endogenous to the choice of quality by the firm, indicating that the number of purchases cannot be chosen freely to estimate a customer’s lifetime value.

Audit risk and rent extraction: Evidence from a randomized evaluation in Brazil

We report results from a randomized policy experiment designed to test whether increasedaudit risk deters rent extraction in local public procurement and service delivery in Brazil. Ourestimates suggest that temporarily increasing annual audit risk by about 20 percentage pointsreduced the proportion of irregular local procurement processes by about 17 percentage points.This reduction was driven entirely by irregularities involving mismanagement or corruption. Incontrast, we find no evidence that increased audit risk affected the quality of publicly providedpreventive and primary health care services -measured based on user satisfaction surveys- orcompliance with national regulations of the conditional cash transfer program "Bolsa Família".

Satisfaction in choice as a function of the number of alternatives: When "goods satiate" but "bads escalate"

Whereas people are typically thought to be better off with more choices, studiesshow that they often prefer to choose from small as opposed to large sets of alternatives.We propose that satisfaction from choice is an inverted U-shaped function of thenumber of alternatives. This proposition is derived theoretically by considering thebenefits and costs of different numbers of alternatives and is supported by fourexperimental studies. We also manipulate the perceptual costs of information processingand demonstrate how this affects the resulting satisfaction function. We furtherindicate that satisfaction when choosing from a given set is diminished if people aremade aware of the existence of other choice sets. The role of individual differences insatisfaction from choice is documented by noting effects due to gender and culture. Weconclude by emphasizing the need to have an explicit rationale for knowing how muchchoice is enough.

Mandatory communication skills training for oncologists: enforcement does not substantially impact satisfaction.

PURPOSE: Even though there is evidence that both patients and oncology clinicians are affected by the quality of communication and that communication skills can be effectively trained, so-called Communication Skills Trainings (CSTs) remain heterogeneously implemented. METHODS: A systematic evaluation of the level of satisfaction of oncologists with the Swiss CST before (2000-2005) and after (2006-2012) it became mandatory. RESULTS: Levels of satisfaction with the CST were high, and satisfaction of physicians participating on a voluntary or mandatory basis did not significantly differ for the majority of the items. CONCLUSIONS: The evaluation of physicians' satisfaction over the years and after introduction of mandatory training supports recommendations for generalized implementation of CST and mandatory training for medical oncologists.