Essays on Development Policy and the Political Economy of Conflict

Electoral Rules and Leader Selection: Experimental Evidence from Ugandan Community Groups. Despite a large body of work documenting how electoral systems affect policy outcomes, less is known about their impact on leader selection. We study this by comparing two types of participatory decision making in Ugandan community groups: (i) vote by secret ballot and (ii) open discussion with consensus. Random assignment allows us to estimate the causal impact of the rules on leader types and social service delivery. Vote groups are found to elect leaders more similar to the average member while discussion group leaders are positively selected on socio-economic characteristics. Further, dropout rates are significantly higher in discussion groups, particularly for poorer members. After 3.5 years, vote groups are larger in size and their members save less and get smaller loans. We conclude that the secret ballot vote creates more inclusive groups while open discussion groups favor the already economically successful. Preparing for Genocide: Community Meetings in Rwanda. How do political elites prepare the civilian population for participation in violent conflict? We empirically investigate this question using data from the Rwandan Genocide in 1994. Every Saturday before 1994, Rwandan villagers had to meet to work on community infrastructure. The practice was highly politicized and, according to anecdotal evidence, regularly used by the political elites for spreading propaganda in the years before the genocide. This paper presents the first quantitative evidence of this abuse of the community meetings. To establish causality, we exploit cross-sectional variation in meeting intensity induced by exogenous weather fluctuations. We find that an additional rainy Saturday resulted in a five percent lower civilian participation rate in genocide violence. Selection into Borrowing: Survey Evidence from Uganda. In this paper, I study how changes to the standard credit contract affect loan demand and selection into borrowing, using a representative sample of urban micro enterprises, most with no borrowing experience. Hypothetical loan demand questions are used to test whether firm owners respond to changes in loans' contractual terms and whether take-up varies by firms' risk type and other firm owner characteristics. The results indicate that contracts with lower interest rates and less stringent collateral requirements attract less risky borrowers, suggesting that there is scope for improvement of standard financial contract terms. Credit Contract Structure and Firm Growth: Evidence from a Randomized Control Trial. We study the effects of credit contract structure on firm outcomes among small and medium sized firms. A randomized control trial was carried out to distinguish between some of the key constraints to efficient credit use connected to the firms' business environment and production function, namely (i) backloaded returns (ii) uncertain returns and (iii) indivisible fixed costs. Each firm was followed for the 1-year loan cycle. We describe the experiment and present preliminary results from the first 754 out of 2,340 firms to have completed the loan cycle. Firms offered a grace period have higher profits and higher household income than firms receiving a rebate later on as well as the control group. They also increased the number of paid employees  and reduced the number of unpaid employees, an effect also found among firms that received a cash subsidy at the beginning of the loan cycle. We discuss potential mechanisms behind these effects.

Integrating group Delphi, fuzzy logic and expert systems for marketing strategy development:the hybridisation and its effectiveness

A hybrid approach for integrating group Delphi, fuzzy logic and expert systems for developing marketing strategies is proposed in this paper. Within this approach, the group Delphi method is employed to help groups of managers undertake SWOT analysis. Fuzzy logic is applied to fuzzify the results of SWOT analysis. Expert systems are utilised to formulate marketing strategies based upon the fuzzified strategic inputs. In addition, guidelines are also provided to help users link the hybrid approach with managerial judgement and intuition. The effectiveness of the hybrid approach has been validated with MBA and MA marketing students. It is concluded that the hybrid approach is more effective in terms of decision confidence, group consensus, helping to understand strategic factors, helping strategic thinking, and coupling analysis with judgement, etc.

Strategic development of transport systems: a study of the physical constraints on planning processes

Investment in transport infrastructure can be highly sensitive to uncertainty. The scale and lead time of strategic transport programmes are such that they require continuing policy support and accurate forecasting. Delay, cost escalation and abandonment of projects often result if these conditions are not present. In Part One the physical characteristics of infrastructure are identified as a major constraint on planning processes. The extent to which strategies and techniques acknowledge these constraints is examined. A simple simulation model is developed to evaluate the effects on system development of variations in the scale and lead time of investments. In Part Two, two case studies of strategic infrastructure investment are analysed. The absence of a policy consensus for airport location was an important factor in the delayed resolution of the Third London Airport issue. In London itself, the traffic and environmental effects of major highway investment ultimately resulted in the abandonment of plans to construct urban motorways. In both cases, the infrastructure implications of alternative strategies are reviewed with reference to the problems of uncertainty. In conclusion, the scale of infrastructure investment is considered the most important of the constraints on the processes of transport planning. Adequate appraisal of such constraints may best be achieved by evaluation more closely aligned to policy objectives.

Microarray-formatted clinical biomarker assay development using peptide aptamers to anterior gradient-2

Anterior gradient-2 protein was identified using proteomic technologies as a p53 inhibitor which is overexpressed in human cancers, and this protein presents a novel pro-oncogenic target with which to develop diagnostic assays for biomarker detection in clinical tissue. Combinatorial phage-peptide libraries were used to select 12 amino acid polypeptide aptamers toward anterior gradient-2 to determine whether methods can be developed to affinity purify the protein from clinical biopsies. Selecting phage aptamers through four rounds of screening on recombinant human anterior gradient-2 protein identified two classes of peptide ligand that bind to distinct epitopes on anterior gradient-2 protein in an immunoblot. Synthetic biotinylated peptide aptamers bound in an ELISA format to anterior gradient-2, and substitution mutagenesis further minimized one polypeptide aptamer to a hexapeptide core. Aptamers containing this latter consensus sequence could be used to affinity purify to homogeneity human anterior gradient-2 protein from a single clinical biopsy. The spotting of a panel of peptide aptamers onto a protein microarray matrix could be used to quantify anterior gradient-2 protein from crude clinical biopsy lysates, providing a format for quantitative screening. These data highlight the utility of peptide combinatorial libraries to acquire rapidly a high-affinity ligand that can selectively bind a target protein from a clinical biopsy and provide a technological approach for clinical biomarker assay development in an aptamer microarray format.

New Europe’s new development aid

This book examines the international development policies of five East Central European new EU member states, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia. These countries turned from being aid recipients to donors after the turn of the millennium in the run-up to EU accession in 2004. The book explains the evolution subsequent to EU accession and current state of foreign aid policies in the region and the reasons why these deviate from many of the internationally agreed best practices in development cooperation. It argues that after the turn of the millennium, a 'Global Consensus' has emerged on how to make foreign aid more effective for development. A comparison between the elements of the Global Consensus and the performance of the five countries reveals that while they have generally implemented little of these recommendations, there are also emerging differences between the countries, with the Czech Republic and Slovenia clearly aspiring to become globally responsible donors. Building on the literatures on foreign policy analysis, international socialization and interest group influence, the book develops a model of foreign aid policy making in order to explain the general reluctance of the five countries in implementing international best practices, and also the differences in their relative performance.

A fenntartható fejlődéssel foglalkozó nemzetközi együttműködés négy évtizede (Four Decades of International Cooperation on Sustainable Development)

Along with the recognition of the increasing environmental and social problems stemming from globalization, the need to address these problems and to develop the relevant international framework has strengthened since the 1970s. The scope of this cooperation gradually broadened and eventually it embraced all issues, which were considered to be critical for sustainable development. The summits on sustainability, namely, the UN Conference on Environment and Development in 1992, the “Rio+5” in 1997 and the World Summit on Sustainable Development in 2002, wished to respond to all unsustainable processes by adopting, reinforcing and expanding a global program. This program is based on a series of important principles and includes various goals and instruments adopted by consensus; however, it also reflects delicate compromises between development related aspirations and environmental barriers, and also between the developed and the developing countries. Actually, there is a serious implementation gap and there are also new challenges. Referring to these problems, the idea of convening an extraordinary summit in 2012 was raised and it was eventually adopted but with a rather narrow mandate and agenda. It turned out that besides the “usual” conflicts between the developed and developing countries e.g. upon the common but differentiated responsibilities or international development financing, there were also diverting views on the green economy and on the ways of institutional strengthening of the international sustainable development and environmental governance. As a consequence, the 2012 Conference concluded with rather modest results.

Towards the formation of a sustainable South Florida: An analysis of conflict resolution and consensus building in the South Florida Everglades Ecosystem Restoration Initiative

This dissertation examines the sociological process of conflict resolution and consensus building in South Florida Everglades Ecosystem Restoration through what I define as a Network Management Coordinative Interstitial Group (NetMIG). The process of conflict resolution can be summarized as the participation of interested and affected parties (stakeholders) in a forum of negotiation. I study the case of the Governor's Commission for a Sustainable South Florida (GCSSF) that was established to reduce social conflict. Such conflict originated from environmental disputes about the Everglades and was manifested in the form of gridlock among regulatory (government) agencies, Indian tribes, as well as agricultural, environmental conservationist and urban development interests. The purpose of the participatory forum is to reduce conflicts of interest and to achieve consensus, with the ultimate goal of restoration of the original Everglades ecosystem, while cultivating the economic and cultural bases of the communities in the area. Further, the forum aim to formulate consensus through envisioning a common sustainable community by providing means to achieve a balance between human and natural systems. ^ Data were gathered using participant observation and document analysis techniques to conduct a theoretically based analysis of the role of the Network Management Coordinative Interstitial Group (NetMIG). I use conflict resolution theory, environmental conflict theory, stakeholder analysis, systems theory, differentiation and social change theory, and strategic management and planning theory. ^ The purpose of this study is to substantiate the role of the Governor's Commission for a Sustainable South Florida (GCSSF) as a consortium of organizations in an effort to resolve conflict rather than an ethnographic study of this organization. Environmental restoration of the Everglades is a vehicle for recognizing the significance of a Network Management Coordinative Interstitial Group (NetMIG), namely the Governor's Commission for a Sustainable South Florida (GCSSF), as a structural mechanism for stakeholder participation in the process of social conflict resolution through the creation of new cultural paradigms for a sustainable community. ^

Left behind: A farmer's fate in the age of sustainable development

Globalization is eroding the livelihoods of small farmers, a significant and vulnerable class, particularly in the developing world. The cost-price squeeze stemming from trade liberalization places farmers in a race to the bottom that leads to displacement, poverty, and environmental degradation. Scholars and activists have proposed that alternative trade initiatives offer a unique opportunity to reverse this trend by harnessing the power of the markets to reward producers of goods with embedded superior cultural, environmental, and social values. Alternative trade via certification schemes have become a de facto prescription for any location where there is a need to conciliate economic interest with conservation imperatives. Partnerships among commodity production farmers, elite manufacturers and wealthy northern consumers/activists do not necessarily have win-win outcomes. Paradoxically, the partnerships of farmers with external agencies have unexpected results. These partnerships develop into dependent relationships that become unsustainable in the absence of further transfers of capital. The institutions born of these partnerships are fragile. When these fledging institutions fail, farmers are left in the same situation that they were before the partnership, with only minor improvements to show after spending considerable amounts of social and financial capital. I hypothesize that these failures are born out of a belief in a universal understanding of sustainability. A discursive emphasis on consensus, equity and mutual benefit hides the fact that what for consumers it is a matter of choice, for producers is a matter of survival. The growth in consumers’ demand for certified products creates a race for farmers to meet these standards. My findings suggest that this race generates economically perverse effects. First, producers enter into a certification treadmill. Second, the local need for economic sustainability is ignored. Third, commodity based alternative trade schemes increase the exposure of communities to global shocks. I conclude by calling for a careful reassessment of sustainable development projects that promote certification schemes. The designers and implementers of these programs must include farmers’ agenda in the planning of these programs.

The influence of corporate interests on USAID's development agenda: The case of Haiti

This dissertation is an attempt to use the radical political economy approach, which assumes that there is a connection between a state's strategic interests and the interests of dominant multinational corporations (MNCs) located within a state's territory, to explain continuity in the USAID development agenda and lending patterns during the past 30 years of development aid to Haiti. Employing the qualitative method of "process-tracing," my study concludes that the radical political economy approach has an explanatory power when it comes to understanding continuity in the USAID development agenda and lending patterns during the past 30 years of development aid to Haiti. The evidence shows that USAID has implemented in Haiti, from the 1980s through the post-9/11 Washington Consensus period, neoliberal policies that conform to the political economy of US multinational corporations (US MNCs). Contrary to the claim that the USAID-sponsored post-earthquake development paradigm has departed from previous development strategies, the study has shown that USAID has used the occurrence of the January 2010 earthquake tragedy to accelerate in Haiti the implementation of a neoliberal agenda congenial to the business promotion of multinational investors, particularly US multinational corporations. In terms of the way ahead, the study argues for the implementation of a new development approach articulated by a legitimate Haitian state and primarily intended to promote the socioeconomic development of the poorest Haitians.

Supporting Metacognitive Development in Early Science Education: Exploring Elementary Teachers' Beliefs and Practices in Metacognition

Metacognition is the understanding and control of cognitive processes. Students with high levels of metacognition achieve greater academic success. The purpose of this mixed-methods study was to examine elementary teachers’ beliefs about metacognition and integration of metacognitive practices in science. Forty-four teachers were recruited through professional networks to complete a questionnaire containing open-ended questions (n = 44) and Likert-type items (n = 41). Five respondents were selected to complete semi-structured interviews informed by the questionnaire. The selected interview participants had a minimum of three years teaching experience and demonstrated a conceptual understanding of metacognition. Statistical tests (Pearson correlation, t-tests, and multiple regression) on quantitative data and thematic analysis of qualitative data indicated that teachers largely understood metacognition but had some gaps in their understanding. Participants’ reported actions (teaching practices) and beliefs differed according to their years of experience but not gender. Hierarchical multiple regression demonstrated that the first block of gender and experience was not a significant predictor of teachers' metacognitive actions, although experience was a significant predictor by itself. Experience was not a significant predictor once teachers' beliefs were added. The majority of participants indicated that metacognition was indeed appropriate for elementary students. Participants consistently reiterated that students’ metacognition developed with practice, but required explicit instruction. A lack of consensus remained around the domain specificity of metacognition. More specifically, the majority of questionnaire respondents indicated that metacognitive strategies could not be used across subject domains, whereas all interviewees indicated that they used strategies across subjects. Metacognition was integrated frequently into Ontario elementary classrooms; however, metacognition was integrated less frequently in science lessons. Lastly, participants used a variety of techniques to integrate metacognition into their classrooms. Implications for practice include the need for more professional development aimed at integrating metacognition into science lessons at both the Primary and Junior levels. Further, teachers could benefit from additional clarification on the three main components of metacognition and the need to integrate all three to successfully develop students’ metacognition.

Applying the security-development nexus on the ground: Land restitution in Colombia

The general consensus on the security-development nexus is that both are key to achieving sustainable peace in war-torn societies. However, this debate has largely taken place among international actors, with little empirical evidence about how security and development relate to each other or are even considered by local actors. The current paper applies the security-development nexus to the case of land restitution in Colombia. Following decades of internal armed conflict, in 2012 the national government passed sweeping land restitution legislation amid on-going violence. Through in-depth interviews and focus groups with multiple actors involved in this process, ranging from international organizations to national government units, from regional institutions to local communities, the paper analyses the objectives, impact, challenges and opportunities for land restitution related to security and development. Undermining peacebuilding, a lack of coherence in the integration of security and development priorities limits the extent to which either supports, or is promoted by, land restitution efforts in Colombia. The paper concludes with reflections on how the security-development nexus may promote peacebuilding amid on-going conflict.

PIPc study: development of indicators of potentially inappropriate prescribing in children (PIPc) in primary care using a modified Delphi technique

Objective There is limited evidence regarding the quality of prescribing for children in primary care. Several prescribing criteria (indicators) have been developed to assess the appropriateness of prescribing in older and middle-aged adults but few are relevant to children. The objective of this study was to develop a set of prescribing indicators that can be applied to prescribing or dispensing data sets to determine the prevalence of potentially inappropriate prescribing in children (PIPc) in primary care settings.


Design Two-round modified Delphi consensus method.


Setting Irish and UK general practice.


Participants A project steering group consisting of academic and clinical general practitioners (GPs) and pharmacists was formed to develop a list of indicators from literature review and clinical expertise. 15 experts consisting of GPs, pharmacists and paediatricians from the Republic of Ireland and the UK formed the Delphi panel.


Results 47 indicators were reviewed by the project steering group and 16 were presented to the Delphi panel. In the first round of this exercise, consensus was achieved on nine of these indicators. Of the remaining seven indicators, two were removed following review of expert panel comments and discussion of the project steering group. The second round of the Delphi process focused on the remaining five indicators, which were amended based on first round feedback. Three indicators were accepted following the second round of the Delphi process and the remaining two indicators were removed. The final list consisted of 12 indicators categorised by respiratory system (n=6), gastrointestinal system (n=2), neurological system (n=2) and dermatological system (n=2).


Conclusions The PIPc indicators are a set of prescribing criteria developed for use in children in primary care in the absence of clinical information. The utility of these criteria will be tested in further studies using prescribing databases.

The Copenhagen Consensus Conference 2016: children, youth, and physical activity in schools and during leisure time

From 4 to 7 April 2016, 24 researchers from 8 countries and from a variety of academic disciplines gathered in Snekkersten, Denmark, to reach evidence-based consensus about physical activity in children and youth, that is, individuals between 6 and 18 years. Physical activity is an overarching term that consists of many structured and unstructured forms within school and out-of-school-time contexts, including organised sport, physical education, outdoor recreation, motor skill development programmes, recess, and active transportation such as biking and walking. This consensus statement presents the accord on the effects of physical activity on children's and youth's fitness, health, cognitive functioning, engagement, motivation, psychological well-being and social inclusion, as well as presenting educational and physical activity implementation strategies. The consensus was obtained through an iterative process that began with presentation of the state-of-the art in each domain followed by plenary and group discussions. Ultimately, Consensus Conference participants reached agreement on the 21-item consensus statement.

Between Bacchus and Dionysus: European Union policies on rural development: the cases of Nemea and Basto wine regions

A actividade vitivinícola possui um conjunto diverso de características presentes no solo, território e comunidade que fazem parte do património cultural de uma determinada região. Quando a tradição se traduz num conceito como terroir que é formado por características territoriais, sociais e culturais de uma região rural, o vinho apresenta uma “assinatura” que se escreve “naturalmente” no paladar regionalmente identificado. Os vinhos da Região de Nemea, na Grécia e de Basto (Região dos Vinhos Verdes) em Portugal, estão ambos sob a proteção dos regulamentos das Denominações de Origem. No entanto, apesar de ambos serem regulados por sistemas institucionais de certificação e controlo de qualidade, afigura-se a necessidade de questionar se o património cultural e a identidade territorial específica, “impressa” em ambos os terroirs, pode ser protegida num sentido mais abrangente do que apenas origem e qualidade. Em Nemea, a discussão entre os produtores diz respeito ao estabelecimento de sub-zonas, isto é incluir na regulação PDO uma diferente categorização territorial com base no terroir. Ou seja, para além de estar presente no rótulo a designação PDO, as garrafas incluirão ainda informação certificada sobre a área específica (dentro do mesmo terroir) onde o vinho foi produzido. A acontecer resultaria em diferentes status de qualidade de acordo com as diferentes aldeias de Nemea onde as vinhas estão localizadas. O que teria possíveis impactos no valor das propriedades e no uso dos solos. Para além disso, a não participação da Cooperativa de Nemea na SON (a associação local de produtores de vinho) e como tal na discussão principal sobre as mudanças e os desafios sobre o terroir de Nemea constitui um problema no sector vitivinícola de Nemea. Em primeiro lugar estabelece uma relação de não-comunicação entre os dois mais importantes agentes desse sector – as companhias vinícolas e a Cooperativa. Em segundo lugar porque constituiu uma possibilidade real, não só para os viticultores ficarem arredados dessa discussão, como também (porque não representados pela cooperativa) ficar impossibilitado um consenso sobre as mudanças discutidas. Isto poderá criar um ‘clima’ de desconfiança levando a discussão para ‘arenas’ deslocalizadas e como tal para decisões ‘desterritorializadas’ Em Basto, há vários produtores que começaram a vender a sua produção para distribuidoras localizadas externamente à sub-região de Basto, mas dentro da Região dos Vinhos Verdes, uma vez que essas companhias tem um melhor estatuto nacional e internacional e uma melhor rede de exportações. Isto está ainda relacionado com uma competição por uma melhor rede de contactos e status mais forte, tornando as discussões sobre estratégias comuns para o desenvolvimento rural e regional de Basto mais difícil de acontecer (sobre isto a palavra impossível foi constantemente usada durante as entrevistas com os produtores de vinho). A relação predominante entre produtores é caracterizada por relações individualistas. Contudo foi observado que essas posições são ainda caracterizadas por uma desconfiança no interior da rede interprofissional local: conflitos para conseguir os mesmos potenciais clientes; comprar uvas a viticultores com melhor rácio qualidade/preço; estratégias individuais para conseguir um melhor status político na relação com a Comissão dos Vinhos Verdes. Para além disso a inexistência de uma activa intermediação institucional (autoridades municipais e a Comissão de Vinho Verde), a inexistência entre os produtores de Basto de uma associação ou mesmo a inexistência de uma cooperativa local tem levado a região de Basto a uma posição de subpromoção nas estratégias de promoção do Vinho Verde em comparação com outras sub-regiões. É também evidente pelos resultados que as mudanças no sector vitivinícolas na região de Basto têm sido estimuladas de fora da região (em resposta também às necessidades dos mercados internacionais) e raramente de dentro – mais uma vez, ‘arenas’ não localizadas e como tal decisões desterritorializadas. Nesse sentido, toda essa discussão e planeamento estratégico, terão um papel vital na preservação da identidade localizada do terroir perante os riscos de descaracterização e desterritorialização. Em suma, para ambos os casos, um dos maiores desafios parece ser como preservar o terroir vitivinícola e como tal o seu carácter e identidade local, quando a rede interprofissional em ambas as regiões se caracteriza, tanto por relações não-consensuais em Nemea como pelo modus operandi de isolamento sem comunicação em Basto. Como tal há uma necessidade de envolvimento entre os diversos agentes e as autoridades locais no sentido de uma rede localizada de governança. Assim sendo, em ambas as regiões, a existência dessa rede é essencial para prevenir os efeitos negativos na identidade do produto e na sua produção. Uma estratégia de planeamento integrado para o sector será vital para preservar essa identidade, prevenindo a sua desterritorialização através de uma restruturação do conhecimento tradicional em simultâneo com a democratização do acesso ao conhecimento das técnicas modernas de produção vitivinícola.

Industrialización y desarrollo en la Argentina pos-“Washington Consensus”: un abordaje crítico desde la perspectiva sectorial, actoral y espacial

Argentina, en 2001, luego de experimentar una de las crisis más profunda de su historia, consecuencia de la primacía de las políticas neoliberales durante la década de 1990 y de los resultados negativos en términos de crecimiento y desigualdad socio-espacial a que estas dieron lugar, comenzó a reconsiderar el rol del Estado en la economía. En dicho contexto se lo sindicó como un actor estratégico para dinamizar un crecimiento inclusivo que viabilice el desarrollo. La promoción estatal a la actividad industrial ocupó un lugar central en la consecución de dicho objetivo. Transcurrida ya más de una década, en el presente trabajo se demuestra, a través del análisis de estadísticas oficiales, cómo la re-intervención del Estado poco ha podido hacer para avanzar en la conformación de un tejido industrial complejo, dinámico y descentralizado –actoral y espacialmente–, que permita viabilizar el desarrollo.