The concept of exchangeability in ensemble forecasting

A set of random variables is exchangeable if its joint distribution function is invariant under permutation of the arguments. The concept of exchangeability is discussed, with a view towards potential application in evaluating ensemble forecasts. It is argued that the paradigm of ensembles being an independent draw from an underlying distribution function is probably too narrow; allowing ensemble members to be merely exchangeable might be a more versatile model. The question is discussed whether established methods of ensemble evaluation need alteration under this model, with reliability being given particular attention. It turns out that the standard methodology of rank histograms can still be applied. As a first application of the exchangeability concept, it is shown that the method of minimum spanning trees to evaluate the reliability of high dimensional ensembles is mathematically sound.

Are gay rights Islamophobic? A critique of some uses of the concept of homonationalism in activism and academia

The concept of ‘homonationalism’ refers to deployments of gay rights for racist and Islamophobic ends, resulting in the consolidation of more sexually inclusive, but racially exclusionary, ideas of citizenship. This article critiques some of the analyses that the concept has inspired in both activist and academic contexts. The critique concentrates on two texts, showing that they make inappropriate rhetorical moves and inaccurate or unsubstantiated claims, and that rather than unearthing structural undercurrents of racism from certain texts or events, they project such structures onto them. While the validity of ‘homonationalism’ as an analytical category is not disputed, some of its propounders assume its explanatory power to be greater than it appears to be. The implications of this critique for gay rights activism and reform are explored.

Area-wide development viability appraisals: the concept of threshold land value within a UK planning context

Area-wide development viability appraisals are undertaken to determine the economic feasibility of policy targets in relation to planning obligations. Essentially, development viability appraisals consist of a series of residual valuations of hypothetical development sites across a local authority area at a particular point in time. The valuations incorporate the estimated financial implications of the proposed level of planning obligations. To determine viability the output land values are benchmarked against threshold land value and therefore the basis on which this threshold is established and the level at which it is set is critical to development viability appraisal at the policy-setting (area-wide) level. Essentially it is an estimate of the value at which a landowner would be prepared to sell. If the estimated site values are higher than the threshold land value the policy target is considered viable. This paper investigates the effectiveness of existing methods of determining threshold land value. They will be tested against the relationship between development value and costs. Modelling reveals that threshold land value that is not related to shifts in development value renders marginal sites unviable and fails to collect proportionate planning obligations from high value/low cost sites. Testing the model against national average house prices and build costs reveals the high degree of volatility in residual land values over time and underlines the importance of making threshold land value relative to the main driver of this volatility, namely development value.

Odd deposits and average practice. A critical history of the concept of structured deposition.

This paper presents a critical history of the concept of ‘structured deposition’. It examines the long-term development of this idea in archaeology, from its origins in the early 1980s through to the present day, looking at how it has been moulded and transformed. On the basis of this historical account, a number of problems are identified with the way that ‘structured deposition’ has generally been conceptualized and applied. It is suggested that the range of deposits described under a single banner as being ‘structured’ is unhelpfully broad, and that archaeologists have been too willing to view material culture patterning as intentionally produced – the result of symbolic or ritual action. It is also argued that the material signatures of ‘everyday’ practice have been undertheorized and all too often ignored. Ultimately, it is suggested that if we are ever to understand fully the archaeological signatures of past practice, it is vital to consider the ‘everyday’ as well as the ‘ritual’ processes which lie behind the patterns we uncover in the ground.

MEGAPOLI: concept of multi-scale modelling of megacity impact on air quality and climate

The EU FP7 Project MEGAPOLI: "Megacities: Emissions, urban, regional and Global Atmospheric POLlution and climate effects, and Integrated tools for assessment and mitigation" (http://megapoli.info) brings together leading European research groups, state-of-the-art scientific tools and key players from non-European countries to investigate the interactions among megacities, air quality and climate. MEGAPOLI bridges the spatial and temporal scales that connect local emissions, air quality and weather with global atmospheric chemistry and climate. The suggested concept of multi-scale integrated modelling of megacity impact on air quality and climate and vice versa is discussed in the paper. It requires considering different spatial and temporal dimensions: time scales from seconds and hours (to understand the interaction mechanisms) up to years and decades (to consider the climate effects); spatial resolutions: with model down- and up-scaling from street- to global-scale; and two-way interactions between meteorological and chemical processes.

Setting UK standards on the concept of control: an analysis of lobbying behaviour

The present study aims to contribute to an understanding of the complexity of lobbying activities within the accounting standard-setting process in the UK. The paper reports detailed content analysis of submission letters to four related exposure drafts. These preceded two accounting standards that set out the concept of control used to determine the scope of consolidation in the UK, except for reporting under international standards. Regulation on the concept of control provides rich patterns of lobbying behaviour due to its controversial nature and its significance to financial reporting. Our examination is conducted by dividing lobbyists into two categories, corporate and non-corporate, which are hypothesised (and demonstrated) to lobby differently. In order to test the significance of these differences we apply ANOVA techniques and univariate regression analysis. Corporate respondents are found to devote more attention to issues of specific applicability of the concept of control, whereas non-corporate respondents tend to devote more attention to issues of general applicability of this concept. A strong association between the issues raised by corporate respondents and their line of business is revealed. Both categories of lobbyists are found to advance conceptually-based arguments more often than economic consequences-based or combined arguments. However, when economic consequences-based arguments are used, they come exclusively from the corporate category of respondents.

A revenge problem without the concept of truth

The vast majority of putative solutions to the liar paradox face the infamous revenge problem. In recent work, however, Kevin Scharp has extensively developed an exciting and highly novel ‘inconsistency approach’ to the paradox that, he claims, does not face revenge. If Scharp is right, then this represents a significant step forward in our attempts to solve the liar paradox. However, in this paper, I raise a revenge problem that faces Scharp’s inconsistency approach.

Knowledge transfer of the Western concept of ‘quality’

This paper addresses one of the issues in contemporary globalisation theory: the extent to which there is ‘one best way’ in which business can be done and organisations managed. It uses Czarniawska’s ‘Travels of Ideas’ model as an organising framework to present and understand how the concept of ‘Quality’, so important in contemporary approaches to manufacturing & services, and their management, travelled to, and impinged on, a newly opened vehicle assembly plant in Poland. The extent to which new meanings were mutually created in the process of translation is discussed, using ethnographic reporting and analysis techniques commonly used in diffusion research. Parallels between the process of translation as an idea becomes embedded into a new cultural location, and the processes which contemporary research has identified as important to organisational learning, are briefly discussed in conclusion.

Reflections on the concept of the common good from an economic perspective

The chapter considers how the common good can be implemented when opinions differ within society about the nature of the common good. It explains how economic analysis can shed light on efficient conflict-management in these circumstances. The chapter argues, more generally, that virtue theorists make too little use of economics because they have an unduly restricted view of the nature and scope of the discipline

An extension of the concept of gradient semigroups which is stable under perturbation

In this article we introduce the concept of a gradient-like nonlinear semigroup as an intermediate concept between a gradient nonlinear semigroup (those possessing a Lyapunov function, see [J.K. Hale, Asymptotic Behavior of Dissipative Systems, Math. Surveys Monogr., vol. 25, Amer. Math. Soc., 1989]) and a nonlinear semigroup possessing a gradient-like attractor. We prove that a perturbation of a gradient-like nonlinear semigroup remains a gradient-like nonlinear semigroup. Moreover, for non-autonomous dynamical systems we introduce the concept of a gradient-like evolution process and prove that a non-autonomous perturbation of a gradient-like nonlinear semigroup is a gradient-like evolution process. For gradient-like nonlinear semigroups and evolution processes, we prove continuity, characterization and (pullback and forwards) exponential attraction of their attractors under perturbation extending the results of [A.N. Carvalho, J.A. Langa, J.C. Robinson, A. Suarez, Characterization of non-autonomous attractors of a perturbed gradient system, J. Differential Equations 236 (2007) 570-603] on characterization and of [A.V. Babin, M.I. Vishik, Attractors in Evolutionary Equations, Stud. Math. Appl.. vol. 25, North-Holland, Amsterdam, 1992] on exponential attraction. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.