On Bayesian predictive modeling : with applications on the analysis of chromatography data in forensic investigations

Med prediktion avses att man skattar det framtida värdet på en observerbar storhet. Kännetecknande för det bayesianska paradigmet är att osäkerhet gällande okända storheter uttrycks i form av sannolikheter. En bayesiansk prediktiv modell är således en sannolikhetsfördelning över de möjliga värden som en observerbar, men ännu inte observerad storhet kan anta. I de artiklar som ingår i avhandlingen utvecklas metoder, vilka bl.a. tillämpas i analys av kromatografiska data i brottsutredningar. Med undantag för den första artikeln, bygger samtliga metoder på bayesiansk prediktiv modellering. I artiklarna betraktas i huvudsak tre olika typer av problem relaterade till kromatografiska data: kvantifiering, parvis matchning och klustring. I den första artikeln utvecklas en icke-parametrisk modell för mätfel av kromatografiska analyser av alkoholhalt i blodet. I den andra artikeln utvecklas en prediktiv inferensmetod för jämförelse av två stickprov. Metoden tillämpas i den tredje artik eln för jämförelse av oljeprover i syfte att kunna identifiera den förorenande källan i samband med oljeutsläpp. I den fjärde artikeln härleds en prediktiv modell för klustring av data av blandad diskret och kontinuerlig typ, vilken bl.a. tillämpas i klassificering av amfetaminprover med avseende på produktionsomgångar.

Computer programs for analysis of droplets sprayed on water sensitive papers

The use of water-sensitive papers is an important tool for assessing the quality of pesticide application on crops, but manual analysis is laborious and time-consuming. Thus, this study aimed to evaluate and compare the results obtained from four software programs for spray droplet analysis in different scanned images of water-sensitive papers. After spraying, papers with four droplet deposition patterns (varying droplet spectra and densities) were analyzed manually and by means of the following computer programs: CIR, e-Sprinkle, DepositScan and Conta-Gotas. The diameter of the volume and number medians and the number of droplets per target area were studied. There is a strong correlation between the values measured using the different programs and the manual analysis, but there is a great difference between the numerical values measured for the same paper. Thus, it is not advisable to compare results obtained from different programs.

Measurement of epidermal thickness in a patient with psoriasis by computer-supported image analysis

The aim of the present study was to measure full epidermal thickness, stratum corneum thickness, rete length, dermal papilla widening and suprapapillary epidermal thickness in psoriasis patients using a light microscope and computer-supported image analysis. The data obtained were analyzed in terms of patient age, type of psoriasis, total body surface area involvement, scalp and nail involvement, duration of psoriasis, and family history of the disease. The study was conducted on 64 patients and 57 controls whose skin biopsies were examined by light microscopy. The acquired microscopic images were transferred to a computer and measurements were made using image analysis. The skin biopsies, taken from different body areas, were examined for different parameters such as epidermal, corneal and suprapapillary epidermal thickness. The most prominent increase in thickness was detected in the palmar region. Corneal thickness was more pronounced in patients with scalp involvement than in patients without scalp involvement (t = -2.651, P = 0.008). The most prominent increase in rete length was observed in the knees (median: 491 µm, t = 10.117, P = 0.000). The difference in rete length between patients with a positive and a negative family history was significant (t = -3.334, P = 0.03), being 27% greater in psoriasis patients without a family history. The differences in dermal papilla distances among patients were very small. We conclude that microscope-supported thickness measurements provide objective results.

Problem solving and computer-assisted instruction in science education : analysis of research findings and the research process /

The quantitative component of this study examined the effect of computerassisted instruction (CAI) on science problem-solving performance, as well as the significance of logical reasoning ability to this relationship. I had the dual role of researcher and teacher, as I conducted the study with 84 grade seven students to whom I simultaneously taught science on a rotary-basis. A two-treatment research design using this sample of convenience allowed for a comparison between the problem-solving performance of a CAI treatment group (n = 46) versus a laboratory-based control group (n = 38). Science problem-solving performance was measured by a pretest and posttest that I developed for this study. The validity of these tests was addressed through critical discussions with faculty members, colleagues, as well as through feedback gained in a pilot study. High reliability was revealed between the pretest and the posttest; in this way, students who tended to score high on the pretest also tended to score high on the posttest. Interrater reliability was found to be high for 30 randomly-selected test responses which were scored independently by two raters (i.e., myself and my faculty advisor). Results indicated that the form of computer-assisted instruction (CAI) used in this study did not significantly improve students' problem-solving performance. Logical reasoning ability was measured by an abbreviated version of the Group Assessment of Lx)gical Thinking (GALT). Logical reasoning ability was found to be correlated to problem-solving performance in that, students with high logical reasoning ability tended to do better on the problem-solving tests and vice versa. However, no significant difference was observed in problem-solving improvement, in the laboratory-based instruction group versus the CAI group, for students varying in level of logical reasoning ability.Insignificant trends were noted in results obtained from students of high logical reasoning ability, but require further study. It was acknowledged that conclusions drawn from the quantitative component of this study were limited, as further modifications of the tests were recommended, as well as the use of a larger sample size. The purpose of the qualitative component of the study was to provide a detailed description ofmy thesis research process as a Brock University Master of Education student. My research journal notes served as the data base for open coding analysis. This analysis revealed six main themes which best described my research experience: research interests, practical considerations, research design, research analysis, development of the problem-solving tests, and scoring scheme development. These important areas ofmy thesis research experience were recounted in the form of a personal narrative. It was noted that the research process was a form of problem solving in itself, as I made use of several problem-solving strategies to achieve desired thesis outcomes.

The development of a Flanders Interaction Analysis style instrument for use in educational computer mediated communication research

Please consult the paper edition of this thesis to read. It is available on the 5th Floor of the Library at Call Number: Z 9999 E38 D56 1992

Real Time Raga Detection and Analysis Using Computer

Department of Computer Applications, Cochin University of Science and Technology

An Alternative Approach To Computer System Security Monitoring And Enhancement Through System Call Sequence Analysis

Modern computer systems are plagued with stability and security problems: applications lose data, web servers are hacked, and systems crash under heavy load. Many of these problems or anomalies arise from rare program behavior caused by attacks or errors. A substantial percentage of the web-based attacks are due to buffer overflows. Many methods have been devised to detect and prevent anomalous situations that arise from buffer overflows. The current state-of-art of anomaly detection systems is relatively primitive and mainly depend on static code checking to take care of buffer overflow attacks. For protection, Stack Guards and I-leap Guards are also used in wide varieties.This dissertation proposes an anomaly detection system, based on frequencies of system calls in the system call trace. System call traces represented as frequency sequences are profiled using sequence sets. A sequence set is identified by the starting sequence and frequencies of specific system calls. The deviations of the current input sequence from the corresponding normal profile in the frequency pattern of system calls is computed and expressed as an anomaly score. A simple Bayesian model is used for an accurate detection.Experimental results are reported which show that frequency of system calls represented using sequence sets, captures the normal behavior of programs under normal conditions of usage. This captured behavior allows the system to detect anomalies with a low rate of false positives. Data are presented which show that Bayesian Network on frequency variations responds effectively to induced buffer overflows. It can also help administrators to detect deviations in program flow introduced due to errors.

Video Object Tracking And Analysis For Computer Assisted Surgery

Pedicle screw insertion technique has made revolution in the surgical treatment of spinal fractures and spinal disorders. Although X- ray fluoroscopy based navigation is popular, there is risk of prolonged exposure to X- ray radiation. Systems that have lower radiation risk are generally quite expensive. The position and orientation of the drill is clinically very important in pedicle screw fixation. In this paper, the position and orientation of the marker on the drill is determined using pattern recognition based methods, using geometric features, obtained from the input video sequence taken from CCD camera. A search is then performed on the video frames after preprocessing, to obtain the exact position and orientation of the drill. An animated graphics, showing the instantaneous position and orientation of the drill is then overlaid on the processed video for real time drill control and navigation

Computer Analysis of Visual Properties of Curved Objects

A method is presented for the visual analysis of objects by computer. It is particularly well suited for opaque objects with smoothly curved surfaces. The method extracts information about the object's surface properties, including measures of its specularity, texture, and regularity. It also aids in determining the object's shape. The application of this method to a simple recognition task ??e recognition of fruit ?? discussed. The results on a more complex smoothly curved object, a human face, are also considered.

Elemental analysis of New Zealand Nephrite Jade (pounamu) for forensic purposes

Pounamu (NZ jade), or nephrite, is a protected mineral in its natural form following the transfer of ownership back to Ngai Tahu under the Ngai Tahu (Pounamu Vesting) Act 1997. Any theft of nephrite is prosecutable under the Crimes Act 1961. Scientific evidence is essential in cases where origin is disputed. A robust method for discrimination of this material through the use of elemental analysis and compositional data analysis is required. Initial studies have characterised the variability within a given nephrite source. This has included investigation of both in situ outcrops and alluvial material. Methods for the discrimination of two geographically close nephrite sources are being developed. Key Words: forensic, jade, nephrite, laser ablation, inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry, multivariate analysis, elemental analysis, compositional data analysis

CAMCR: Computer assisted mixture model analysis for capture-recapture count data

Population size estimation with discrete or nonparametric mixture models is considered, and reliable ways of construction of the nonparametric mixture model estimator are reviewed and set into perspective. Construction of the maximum likelihood estimator of the mixing distribution is done for any number of components up to the global nonparametric maximum likelihood bound using the EM algorithm. In addition, the estimators of Chao and Zelterman are considered with some generalisations of Zelterman’s estimator. All computations are done with CAMCR, a special software developed for population size estimation with mixture models. Several examples and data sets are discussed and the estimators illustrated. Problems using the mixture model-based estimators are highlighted.

Single-trial event-related potential analysis for brain-computer interfaces

Abstract. Different types of mental activity are utilised as an input in Brain-Computer Interface (BCI) systems. One such activity type is based on Event-Related Potentials (ERPs). The characteristics of ERPs are not visible in single-trials, thus averaging over a number of trials is necessary before the signals become usable. An improvement in ERP-based BCI operation and system usability could be obtained if the use of single-trial ERP data was possible. The method of Independent Component Analysis (ICA) can be utilised to separate single-trial recordings of ERP data into components that correspond to ERP characteristics, background electroencephalogram (EEG) activity and other components with non- cerebral origin. Choice of specific components and their use to reconstruct “denoised” single-trial data could improve the signal quality, thus allowing the successful use of single-trial data without the need for averaging. This paper assesses single-trial ERP signals reconstructed using a selection of estimated components from the application of ICA on the raw ERP data. Signal improvement is measured using Contrast-To-Noise measures. It was found that such analysis improves the signal quality in all single-trials.

CAMCR: Computer-Assisted Mixture model analysis for Capture–Recapture count data

Population size estimation with discrete or nonparametric mixture models is considered, and reliable ways of construction of the nonparametric mixture model estimator are reviewed and set into perspective. Construction of the maximum likelihood estimator of the mixing distribution is done for any number of components up to the global nonparametric maximum likelihood bound using the EM algorithm. In addition, the estimators of Chao and Zelterman are considered with some generalisations of Zelterman’s estimator. All computations are done with CAMCR, a special software developed for population size estimation with mixture models. Several examples and data sets are discussed and the estimators illustrated. Problems using the mixture model-based estimators are highlighted.

Implications for DNA identification arising from an analysis of Australian forensic databases

Previous analyses of Australian samples have suggested that populations of the same broad racial group (Caucasian, Asian, Aboriginal) tend to be genetically similar across states. This suggests that a single national Australian database for each such group may be feasible, which would greatly facilitate casework. We have investigated samples drawn from each of these groups in different Australian states, and have quantified the genetic homogeneity across states within each racial group in terms of the "coancestry coefficient" F(ST). In accord with earlier results, we find that F(ST) values, as estimated from these data, are very small for Caucasians and Asians, usually <0.5%. We find that "declared" Aborigines (which includes many with partly Aboriginal genetic heritage) are also genetically similar across states, although they display some differentiation from a "pure" Aboriginal population (almost entirely of Aboriginal genetic heritage).

Computer generation and quantitative morphometric analysis of virtual neurons

An important goal in computational neuroanatomy is the complete and accurate simulation of neuronal morphology. We are developing computational tools to model three-dimensional dendritic structures based on sets of stochastic rules. This paper reports an extensive, quantitative anatomical characterization of simulated motoneurons and Purkinje cells. We used several local and global algorithms implemented in the L-Neuron and ArborVitae programs to generate sets of virtual neurons. Parameters statistics for all algorithms were measured from experimental data, thus providing a compact and consistent description of these morphological classes. We compared the emergent anatomical features of each group of virtual neurons with those of the experimental database in order to gain insights on the plausibility of the model assumptions, potential improvements to the algorithms, and non-trivial relations among morphological parameters. Algorithms mainly based on local constraints (e.g., branch diameter) were successful in reproducing many morphological properties of both motoneurons and Purkinje cells (e.g. total length, asymmetry, number of bifurcations). The addition of global constraints (e.g., trophic factors) improved the angle-dependent emergent characteristics (average Euclidean distance from the soma to the dendritic terminations, dendritic spread). Virtual neurons systematically displayed greater anatomical variability than real cells, suggesting the need for additional constraints in the models. For several emergent anatomical properties, a specific algorithm reproduced the experimental statistics better than the others did. However, relative performances were often reversed for different anatomical properties and/or morphological classes. Thus, combining the strengths of alternative generative models could lead to comprehensive algorithms for the complete and accurate simulation of dendritic morphology.