943 resultados para Complex systems prediction


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We construct an invisible quantum barrier which represents the phenomenon of quantum reflection using available data on atom-wall and Bose-Einstein-condensate-wall reflection. We use the Abel equation to invert the data. The resulting invisible quantum barrier is double valued in both axes. We study this invisible barrier in the case of atom and Bose-Einstein condensate (BEC) reflection from a solid silicon surface. A time-dependent, one-spatial-dimension Gross-Pitaevskii equation is solved for the BEC case. We found that the BEC behaves very similarly to the single atom except for size effects, which manifest themselves in a maximum in the reflectivity at small distances from the wall. The effect of the atom-atom interaction on the BEC reflection and correspondingly on the invisible barrier is found to be appreciable at low velocities and comparable to the finite-size effect. The trapping of an ultracold atom or BEC between two walls is discussed.

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Science is a fundamental human activity and we trust its results because it has several error-correcting mechanisms. It is subject to experimental tests that are replicated by independent parts. Given the huge amount of information available and the information asymetry between producers and users of knowledge, scientists have to rely on the reports of others. This makes it possible for social effects to influence the scientific community. Here, an Opinion Dynamics agent model is proposed to describe this situation. The influence of Nature through experiments is described as an external field that acts on the experimental agents. We will see that the retirement of old scientists can be fundamental in the acceptance of a new theory. We will also investigate the interplay between social influence and observations. This will allow us to gain insight in the problem of when social effects can have negligible effects in the conclusions of a scientific community and when we should worry about them.

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In this paper, we study the effects of introducing contrarians in a model of Opinion Dynamics where the agents have internal continuous opinions, but exchange information only about a binary choice that is a function of their continuous opinion, the CODA model. We observe that the hung election scenario that arises when contrarians are introduced in discrete opinion models still happens. However, it is weaker and it should not be expected in every election. Finally, we also show that the introduction of contrarians make the tendency towards extremism of the original model weaker, indicating that the existence of agents that prefer to disagree might be an important aspect and help society to diminish extremist opinions.

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The water activity of aqueous solutions of EO-PO block copolymers of six different molar masses and EO/PO ratios and of maltodextrins of three different molar masses was determined at 298.15 K. The results showed that these aqueous solutions present a negative deviation from Raoult`s law. The Flory-Huggins and UNIFAC excess Gibbs energy models were employed to model the experimental data. While a good agreement was obtained with the Flory-Huggins equation, discrepancies were observed when predicting the experimental behavior with the UNIFAC model. The water activities of ternary systems formed by a synthetic polymer, maltodextrin and water were also measured and used to test the predictive capability of both models.

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Recently, the development of industrial processes brought on the outbreak of technologically complex systems. This development generated the necessity of research relative to the mathematical techniques that have the capacity to deal with project complexities and validation. Fuzzy models have been receiving particular attention in the area of nonlinear systems identification and analysis due to it is capacity to approximate nonlinear behavior and deal with uncertainty. A fuzzy rule-based model suitable for the approximation of many systems and functions is the Takagi-Sugeno (TS) fuzzy model. IS fuzzy models are nonlinear systems described by a set of if then rules which gives local linear representations of an underlying system. Such models can approximate a wide class of nonlinear systems. In this paper a performance analysis of a system based on IS fuzzy inference system for the calibration of electronic compass devices is considered. The contribution of the evaluated IS fuzzy inference system is to reduce the error obtained in data acquisition from a digital electronic compass. For the reliable operation of the TS fuzzy inference system, adequate error measurements must be taken. The error noise must be filtered before the application of the IS fuzzy inference system. The proposed method demonstrated an effectiveness of 57% at reducing the total error based on considered tests. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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The field of protein crystallography inspires and enthrals, whether it be for the beauty and symmetry of a perfectly formed protein crystal, the unlocked secrets of a novel protein fold, or the precise atomic-level detail yielded from a protein-ligand complex. Since 1958, when the first protein structure was solved, there have been tremendous advances in all aspects of protein crystallography, from protein preparation and crystallisation through to diffraction data measurement and structure refinement. These advances have significantly reduced the time required to solve protein crystal structures, while at the same time substantially improving the quality and resolution of the resulting structures. Moreover, the technological developments have induced researchers to tackle ever more complex systems, including ribosomes and intact membrane-bound proteins, with a reasonable expectation of success. In this review, the steps involved in determining a protein crystal structure are described and the impact of recent methodological advances identified. Protein crystal structures have proved to be extraordinarily useful in medicinal chemistry research, particularly with respect to inhibitor design. The precise interaction between a drug and its receptor can be visualised at the molecular level using protein crystal structures, and this information then used to improve the complementarity and thus increase the potency and selectivity of an inhibitor. The use of protein crystal structures in receptor-based drug design is highlighted by (i) HIV protease, (ii) influenza virus neuraminidase and (iii) prostaglandin H-2-synthetase. These represent, respectively, examples of protein crystal structures that (i) influenced the design of drugs currently approved for use in the treatment of HIV infection, (ii) led to the design of compounds currently in clinical trials for the treatment of influenza infection and (iii) could enable the design of highly specific non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs that lack the common side-effects of this drug class.

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Smoothing the potential energy surface for structure optimization is a general and commonly applied strategy. We propose a combination of soft-core potential energy functions and a variation of the diffusion equation method to smooth potential energy surfaces, which is applicable to complex systems such as protein structures; The performance of the method was demonstrated by comparison with simulated annealing using the refinement of the undecapeptide Cyclosporin A as a test case. Simulations were repeated many times using different initial conditions and structures since the methods are heuristic and results are only meaningful in a statistical sense.

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The brain is a complex system that, in the normal condition, has emergent properties like those associated with activity-dependent plasticity in learning and memory, and in pathological situations, manifests abnormal long-term phenomena like the epilepsies. Data from our laboratory and from the literature were classified qualitatively as sources of complexity and emergent properties from behavior to electrophysiological, cellular, molecular, and computational levels. We used such models as brainstem-dependent acute audiogenic seizures and forebrain-dependent kindled audiogenic seizures. Additionally we used chemical OF electrical experimental models of temporal lobe epilepsy that induce status epilepticus with behavioral, anatomical, and molecular sequelae such as spontaneous recurrent seizures and long-term plastic changes. Current Computational neuroscience tools will help the interpretation. storage, and sharing of the exponential growth of information derived from those studies. These strategies are considered solutions to deal with the complexity of brain pathologies such as the epilepsies. (C) 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

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An economy is a coordinated system of distributed knowledge. Economic evolution occurs as knowledge grows and the structure of the system changes. This paper is about the role of markets in this process. Traditionally, the theory of markets has not been a central feature of evolutionary economics. This seems to be due to the orthodox view of markets as information-processing mechanisms for finding equilibria. But in economic evolution markets are actually knowledge-structuring mechanisms. What then is the relation between knowledge, information, markets and mechanisms? I argue that an evolutionary theory of markets, in the manner of Loasby (1999), requires a clear formulation of these relations. I suggest that a conception of knowledge and markets in terms of a graphical theory of complex systems furnishes precisely this.

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In this paper we use sensor-annotated abstraction hierarchies (Reising & Sanderson, 1996, 2002a,b) to show that unless appropriately instrumented, configural displays designed according to the principles of ecological interface design (EID) might be vulnerable to misinterpretation when sensors become unreliable or are unavailable. Building on foundations established in Reising and Sanderson (2002a) we use a pasteurization process control example to show how sensor-annotated AHs help the analyst determine the impact of different instrumentation engineering policies on a configural display that is part of an ecological interface. Our analyses suggest that configural displays showing higher-order properties of a system are especially vulnerable under some conservative instrumentation configurations. However, sensor-annotated AHs can be used to indicate where corrective instrumentation might be placed. We argue that if EID is to be effectively employed in the design of displays for complex systems, then the information needs of the human operator need to be considered while instrumentation requirements are being formulated. Rasmussen's abstraction hierarchy-and particularly its extension to the analysis of information captured by sensors and derived from sensors-may therefore be a useful adjunct to up-stream instrumentation design. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

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In this paper we establish a foundation for understanding the instrumentation needs of complex dynamic systems if ecological interface design (EID)-based interfaces are to be robust in the face of instrumentation failures. EID-based interfaces often include configural displays which reveal the higher-order properties of complex systems. However, concerns have been expressed that such displays might be misleading when instrumentation is unreliable or unavailable. Rasmussen's abstraction hierarchy (AH) formalism can be extended to include representations of sensors near the functions or properties about which they provide information, resulting in what we call a sensor-annotated abstraction hierarchy. Sensor-annotated AHs help the analyst determine the impact of different instrumentation engineering policies on higher-order system information by showing how the data provided from individual sensors propagates within and across levels of abstraction in the AH. The use of sensor-annotated AHs with a configural display is illustrated with a simple water reservoir example. We argue that if EID is to be effectively employed in the design of interfaces for complex systems, then the information needs of the human operator need to be considered at the earliest stages of system development while instrumentation requirements are being formulated. In this way, Rasmussen's AH promotes a formative approach to instrumentation engineering. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

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One of the most difficult problems that face researchers experimenting with complex systems in real world applications is the Facility Layout Design Problem. It relies with the design and location of production lines, machinery and equipment, inventory storage and shipping facilities. In this work it is intended to address this problem through the use of Constraint Logic Programming (CLP) technology. The use of Genetic Algorithms (GA) as optimisation technique in CLP environment is also an issue addressed. The approach aims the implementation of genetic algorithm operators following the CLP paradigm.

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Dynamical systems modeling tumor growth have been investigated to determine the dynamics between tumor and healthy cells. Recent theoretical investigations indicate that these interactions may lead to different dynamical outcomes, in particular to homoclinic chaos. In the present study, we analyze both topological and dynamical properties of a recently characterized chaotic attractor governing the dynamics of tumor cells interacting with healthy tissue cells and effector cells of the immune system. By using the theory of symbolic dynamics, we first characterize the topological entropy and the parameter space ordering of kneading sequences from one-dimensional iterated maps identified in the dynamics, focusing on the effects of inactivation interactions between both effector and tumor cells. The previous analyses are complemented with the computation of the spectrum of Lyapunov exponents, the fractal dimension and the predictability of the chaotic attractors. Our results show that the inactivation rate of effector cells by the tumor cells has an important effect on the dynamics of the system. The increase of effector cells inactivation involves an inverse Feigenbaum (i.e. period-halving bifurcation) scenario, which results in the stabilization of the dynamics and in an increase of dynamics predictability. Our analyses also reveal that, at low inactivation rates of effector cells, tumor cells undergo strong, chaotic fluctuations, with the dynamics being highly unpredictable. Our findings are discussed in the context of tumor cells potential viability.

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Trabalho Final de Mestrado para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Mecânica com especialização em Energia, Climatização e Refrigeração