A multi-model comparison of Atlantic multidecadal variability

A multi-model analysis of Atlantic multidecadal variability is performed with the following aims: to investigate the similarities to observations; to assess the strength and relative importance of the different elements of the mechanism proposed by Delworth et al. (J Clim 6:1993–2011, 1993) (hereafter D93) among coupled general circulation models (CGCMs); and to relate model differences to mean systematic error. The analysis is performed with long control simulations from ten CGCMs, with lengths ranging between 500 and 3600 years. In most models the variations of sea surface temperature (SST) averaged over North Atlantic show considerable power on multidecadal time scales, but with different periodicity. The SST variations are largest in the mid-latitude region, consistent with the short instrumental record. Despite large differences in model configurations, we find quite some consistency among the models in terms of processes. In eight of the ten models the mid-latitude SST variations are significantly correlated with fluctuations in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), suggesting a link to northward heat transport changes. Consistent with this link, the three models with the weakest AMOC have the largest cold SST bias in the North Atlantic. There is no linear relationship on decadal timescales between AMOC and North Atlantic Oscillation in the models. Analysis of the key elements of the D93 mechanisms revealed the following: Most models present strong evidence that high-latitude winter mixing precede AMOC changes. However, the regions of wintertime convection differ among models. In most models salinity-induced density anomalies in the convective region tend to lead AMOC, while temperature-induced density anomalies lead AMOC only in one model. However, analysis shows that salinity may play an overly important role in most models, because of cold temperature biases in their relevant convective regions. In most models subpolar gyre variations tend to lead AMOC changes, and this relation is strong in more than half of the models.

Multiple causes of the Younger Dryas cold period

The Younger Dryas cooling event disrupted the overall warming trend in the North Atlantic region during the last deglaciation. Climate change during the Younger Dryas was abrupt and thus provides insights into the sensitivity of the climate system to perturbations. The sudden Younger Dryas cooling has traditionally been attributed to a shutdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation by meltwater discharges. However, alternative explanations such as strong negative radiative forcing14 and a shift in atmospheric circulation have also been offered. Here we investigate the importance of these different forcings in coupled climate model experiments constrained by data assimilation. We find that the Younger Dryas climate signal as registered in proxy evidence is best simulated using a combination of processes: a weakened Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, moderate negative radiative forcing and an altered atmospheric circulation. We conclude that none of the individual mechanisms alone provide a plausible explanation for the Younger Dryas cold period. We suggest that the triggers for abrupt climate changes such as the Younger Dryas are more complex than suggested so far, and that studies on the response of the climate system to perturbations should account for this complexity.

Past and future evolution of Abies alba forests in Europe - comparison of a dynamic vegetation model with palaeo data and observations

Information on how species distributions and ecosystem services are impacted by anthropogenic climate change is important for adaptation planning. Palaeo data suggest that Abies alba formed forests under significantly warmer-than-present conditions in Europe and might be a native substitute for widespread drought-sensitive temperate and boreal tree species such as beech (Fagus sylvatica) and spruce (Picea abies) under future global warming conditions. Here, we combine pollen and macrofossil data, modern observations, and results from transient simulations with the LPX-Bern dynamic global vegetation model to assess past and future distributions of A. alba in Europe. LPX-Bern is forced with climate anomalies from a run over the past 21 000 years with the Community Earth System Model, modern climatology, and with 21st-century multimodel ensemble results for the high-emission RCP8.5 and the stringent mitigation RCP2.6 pathway. The simulated distribution for present climate encompasses the modern range of A. alba, with the model exceeding the present distribution in north-western and southern Europe. Mid-Holocene pollen data and model results agree for southern Europe, suggesting that at present, human impacts suppress the distribution in southern Europe. Pollen and model results both show range expansion starting during the Bølling–Allerød warm period, interrupted by the Younger Dryas cold, and resuming during the Holocene. The distribution of A. alba expands to the north-east in all future scenarios, whereas the potential (currently unrealized) range would be substantially reduced in southern Europe under RCP8.5. A. alba maintains its current range in central Europe despite competition by other thermophilous tree species. Our combined palaeoecological and model evidence suggest that A. alba may ensure important ecosystem services including stand and slope stability, infrastructure protection, and carbon sequestration under significantly warmer-than-present conditions in central Europe.

Planktonic and benthic stables Isotopes, age model and carbon analysis of HUD91/039 from the northernmost Baffin Bay

A multiproxy study of palaeoceanographic and climatic changes in northernmost Baffin Bay shows that major environmental changes have occurred since the deglaciation of the area at about 12 500 cal. yr BP. The interpretation is based on sedimentology, benthic and planktonic foraminifera and their isotopic composition, as well as diatom assemblages in the sedimentary records at two core sites, one located in the deeper central part of northernmost Baffin Bay and one in a separate trough closer to the Greenland coast. A revised chronology for the two records is established on the basis of 15 previously published AMS 14C age determinations. A basal diamicton is overlain by laminated, fossil-free sediments. Our data from the early part of the fossiliferous record (12 300 - 11 300 cal. yr BP), which is also initially laminated, indicate extensive seasonal sea-ice cover and brine release. There is indication of a cooling event between 11 300 and 10 900 cal. yr BP, and maximum Atlantic Water influence occurred between 10 900 and 8200 cal. yr BP (no sediment recovery between 8200 and 7300 cal. yr BP). A gradual, but fluctuating, increase in sea-ice cover is seen after 7300 cal. yr BP. Sea-ice diatoms were particularly abundant in the central part of northernmost Baffin Bay, presumably due to the inflow of Polar waters from the Arctic Ocean, and less sea ice occurred at the near-coastal site, which was under continuous influence of the West Greenland Current. Our data from the deep, central part show a fluctuating degree of upwelling after c. 7300 cal. yr BP, culminating between 4000 and 3050 cal. yr BP. There was a gradual increase in the influence of cold bottom waters from the Arctic Ocean after about 3050 cal. yr BP, when agglutinated foraminifera became abundant. A superimposed short-term change in the sea-surface proxies is correlated with the Little Ice Age cooling.

Age model for the time between 3.45 and 2.45 Ma of ODP Site 189-1172

Calcareous nannoplankton assemblages and benthic d18O isotopes of Pliocene deep-sea sediments of ODP site 1172 (East of Tasmania) have been studied to improve our knowledge of the Southern Ocean paleoceanography. Our study site is located just north of the Subtropical Front (STF), an ideal setting to monitor migrations of the STF during our study period, between 3.45 and 2.45 Ma. The assemblage identified at ODP site 1172 has been interpreted as characteristic for the transitional zone water mass, located south of the STF, based on: (i) the low abundances (< 1%) of subtropical taxa, (ii) relatively high percentages of Coccolithus pelagicus, a subpolar type species, (iii) abundances from 2-10% of Calcidiscus leptoporus, a species that frequently inhabits the zone south of the STF and (iv) the high abundances of small Noelaerhabdaceae which at present dominates the zone south of the STF. Across our interval the calcareous nannoplankton manifests glacial-interglacial variability. We have identified cold events, characterized by high abundances of C. pelagicus which coincide with glacial periods, except during G7. After 3.1 Ma cold events are more frequent, in concordance with global cooling trends. Around 2.75 Ma, the interglacial stage G7 is characterized by anomalous low temperatures which most likely are linked to definite closure of the Central American Seaway (CAS), an event that is believed to have had global consequences. A gradual increase of very small Reticulofenestra across our section marks a significant trend in the small Noelaerhabdaceae species group and has been linked to a general enhanced mixing of the water column in agreement with previous studies. It is suggested that a rapid decline of small Gephyrocapsa after isotopic stage G7 might be related to the cooling observed in our study site after the closure of the CAS.

(Table 1) Age model for ODP Site 175-1077 based on oxygen isotopes of Globigerinoides ruber pink

Palynological records from the Congo fan reveal environmental change in equatorial Africa occurring 1.05 Ma ago, 100 k.y. before the mid-Pleistocene climatic shift at 0.9 Ma. Prior to 1.05 Ma, a glacial-interglacial rhythm is not obvious in the African vegetation variation. Afterwards, Podocarpus spread in the mountains of central Africa mainly during glacials and Congo River discharge decreased. The sequence of vegetation variation associated with the mid-Pleistocene glacials and interglacials differed from that observed during the late Pleistocene. Between 0.9 and 0.6 Ma, interglacials were characterized by warm dry conditions and glacials were characterized by cool humid conditions, while during the past 0.2 Ma glacials were cold and dry and interglacials warm and humid. Our data indicate that before the Northern Hemisphere ice caps dramatically increased in size (0.9-0.6 Ma), low-latitude climate forcing and response in the tropics played an important role in the initiation of 100 k.y. ice-age cycles. During the mid to late Pleistocene, however, the climate conditions in the tropics were increasingly influenced by the glacial-interglacial variations of continental ice sheets.

Age model, stable isotopes, major element proportions and endmember unmixing results from four western tropical Atlantic cores

We investigate changes in the delivery and oceanic transport of Amazon sediments related to terrestrial climate variations over the last 250 ka. We present high-resolution geochemical records from four marine sediment cores located between 5 and 12° N along the northern South American margin. The Amazon River is the sole source of terrigenous material for sites at 5 and 9° N, while the core at 12° N receives a mixture of Amazon and Orinoco detrital particles. Using an endmember unmixing model, we estimated the relative proportions of Amazon Andean material ("%-Andes", at 5 and 9° N) and of Amazon material ("%-Amazon", at 12° N) within the terrigenous fraction. The %-Andes and %-Amazon records exhibit significant precessional variations over the last 250 ka that are more pronounced during interglacials in comparison to glacial periods. High %-Andes values observed during periods of high austral summer insolation reflect the increased delivery of suspended sediments by Andean tributaries and enhanced Amazonian precipitation, in agreement with western Amazonian speleothem records. Increased Amazonian rainfall reflects the intensification of the South American monsoon in response to enhanced land-ocean thermal gradient and moisture convergence. However, low %-Amazon values obtained at 12° N during the same periods seem to contradict the increased delivery of Amazon sediments. We propose that reorganizations in surface ocean currents modulate the northwestward transport of Amazon material. In agreement with published records, the seasonal North Brazil Current retroflection is intensified (or prolonged in duration) during cold substages of the last 250 ka (which correspond to intervals of high DJF or low JJA insolation) and deflects eastward the Amazon sediment and freshwater plume.

Model parameter

Interannual environmental variability in Peru is dominated by the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The most dramatic changes are associated with the warm El Niño (EN) phase (opposite the cold La Niña phase), which disrupts the normal coastal upwelling and affects the dynamics of many coastal marine and terrestrial resources. This study presents a trophic model for Sechura Bay, located at the northern extension of the Peruvian upwelling system, where ENSO-induced environmental variability is most extreme. Using an initial steady-state model for the year 1996, we explore the dynamics of the ecosystem through the year 2003 (including the strong EN of 1997/98 and the weaker EN of 2002/03). Based on support from literature, we force biomass of several non-trophically-mediated 'drivers' (e.g. Scallops, Benthic detritivores, Octopus, and Littoral fish) to observe whether the fit between historical and simulated changes (by the trophic model) is improved. The results indicate that the Sechura Bay Ecosystem is a relatively inefficient system from a community energetics point of view, likely due to the periodic perturbations of ENSO. A combination of high system productivity and low trophic level target species of invertebrates (i.e. scallops) and fish (i.e. anchoveta) results in high catches and an efficient fishery. The importance of environmental drivers is suggested, given the relatively small improvements in the fit of the simulation with the addition of trophic drivers on remaining functional groups' dynamics. An additional multivariate regression model is presented for the scallop Argopecten purpuratus, which demonstrates a significant correlation between both spawning stock size and riverine discharge-mediated mortality on catch levels. These results are discussed in the context of the appropriateness of trophodynamic modeling in relatively open systems, and how management strategies may be focused given the highly environmentally influenced marine resources of the region.

Age model, isotope analyses, geochemical measurements and grain size analyses of sediment core GeoB9508-5 from the Senegal River Mouth

The influence of the large-scale ocean circulation on Sahel rainfall is elusive because of the shortness of the observational record. We reconstructed the history of eolian and fluvial sedimentation on the continental slope off Senegal during the past 57,000 years. Our data show that abrupt onsets of arid conditions in the West African Sahel were linked to cold North Atlantic sea surface temperatures during times of reduced meridional overturning circulation associated with Heinrich Stadials. Climate modeling suggests that this drying is induced by a southward shift of the West African monsoon trough in conjunction with an intensification and southward expansion of the midtropospheric African Easterly Jet.

Age model, lipids, and iron/calcium-ratios of sediment core GeoB9307-3

Hide Intense debate persists about the climatic mechanisms governing hydrologic changes in tropical and subtropical southeast Africa since the Last Glacial Maximum, about 20,000 years ago. In particular, the relative importance of atmospheric and oceanic processes is not firmly established. Southward shifts of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) driven by high-latitude climate changes have been suggested as a primary forcing, whereas other studies infer a predominant influence of Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures on regional rainfall changes. To address this question, a continuous record representing an integrated signal of regional climate variability is required, but has until now been missing. Here we show that remote atmospheric forcing by cold events in the northern high latitudes appears to have been the main driver of hydro-climatology in southeast Africa during rapid climate changes over the past 17,000 years. Our results are based on a reconstruction of precipitation and river discharge changes, as recorded in a marine sediment core off the mouth of the Zambezi River, near the southern boundary of the modern seasonal ITCZ migration. Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures did not exert a primary control over southeast African hydrologic variability. Instead, phases of high precipitation and terrestrial discharge occurred when the ITCZ was forced southwards during Northern Hemisphere cold events, such as Heinrich stadial 1 (around 16,000 years ago) and the Younger Dryas (around 12,000 years ago), or when local summer insolation was high in the late Holocene, i.e., during the last 4,000 years.

Age determination and model of sediment core RAPiD-15-4P

Greenland ice core records indicate that the last deglaciation (~7-21 ka) was punctuated by numerous abrupt climate reversals involving temperature changes of up to 5°C-10°C within decades. However, the cause behind many of these events is uncertain. A likely candidate may have been the input of deglacial meltwater, from the Laurentide ice sheet (LIS), to the high-latitude North Atlantic, which disrupted ocean circulation and triggered cooling. Yet the direct evidence of meltwater input for many of these events has so far remained undetected. In this study, we use the geochemistry (paired Mg/Ca-d18O) of planktonic foraminifera from a sediment core south of Iceland to reconstruct the input of freshwater to the northern North Atlantic during abrupt deglacial climate change. Our record can be placed on the same timescale as ice cores and therefore provides a direct comparison between the timing of freshwater input and climate variability. Meltwater events coincide with the onset of numerous cold intervals, including the Older Dryas (14.0 ka), two events during the Allerød (at ~13.1 and 13.6 ka), the Younger Dryas (12.9 ka), and the 8.2 ka event, supporting a causal link between these abrupt climate changes and meltwater input. During the Bølling-Allerød warm interval, we find that periods of warming are associated with an increased meltwater flux to the northern North Atlantic, which in turn induces abrupt cooling, a cessation in meltwater input, and eventual climate recovery. This implies that feedback between climate and meltwater input produced a highly variable climate. A comparison to published data sets suggests that this feedback likely included fluctuations in the southern margin of the LIS causing rerouting of LIS meltwater between southern and eastern drainage outlets, as proposed by Clark et al. (2001, doi:10.1126/science.1062517).

Mixed layer heat and salinity budgets during the onset of the 2011 Atlantic cold tongue

The mixed layer (ML) temperature and salinity changes in the central tropical Atlantic have been studied by a dedicated experiment (Cold Tongue Experiment (CTE)) carried out from May to July 2011. The CTE was based on two successive research cruises, a glider swarm, and moored observations. The acquired in situ data sets together with satellite, reanalysis, and assimilation model data were used to evaluate box-averaged ML heat and salinity budgets for two subregions: (1) the western equatorial Atlantic cold tongue (ACT) (23°-10°W) and (2) the region north of the ACT. The strong ML heat loss in the ACT region during the CTE was found to be the result of the balance of warming due to net surface heat flux and cooling due to zonal advection and diapycnal mixing. The northern region was characterized by weak cooling and the dominant balance of net surface heat flux and zonal advection. A strong salinity increase occurred at the equator, 10°W, just before the CTE. During the CTE, ML salinity in the ACT region slightly increased. Largest contributions to the ML salinity budget were zonal advection and the net surface freshwater flux. While essential for the ML heat budget in the ACT region, diapycnal mixing played only a minor role for the ML salinity budget. In the region north of the ACT, the ML freshened at the beginning of the CTE due to precipitation, followed by a weak salinity increase. Zonal advection changed sign contributing to ML freshening at the beginning of the CTE and salinity increase afterward.

Research review : searching for a new framework for Thailand's foreign policy in the post-cold war era

Thai foreign policy in the 1990s has been said to be contingent on the government in power, which changes between (or within) these groups and vacillates between pro-democratic reformists/principle-pursuers and the conservatives/profit-seekers. In these studies, Thailand’s Indochinese policy has often been referred to as a typical consequence of politics between the pragmatists and the reformists. However, whether or not domestic oppositional politics is the key determinant of foreign policy in the post-Cold War era still requires further examination, precisely because the model is now facing serious challenges between theory and reality. In this paper, I review the existing arguments concerning Thailand’s foreign policy in the post-Cold War Era and point out their limitations and questions for future study.

Damage tolerance of cold drawn ferritic-austenitic stainless steels wires for prestressed concrete

Damage tolerance of high strength cold-drawn ferritic–austenitic stainless steel wires is assessed by means of tensile fracture tests of cracked wires. The fatigue crack is transversally propagated from the wire surface. The damage tolerance curve of the wires results from the empirical failure load when given as a function of crack depth. As a consequence of cold drawing, the wire microstructure is orientated along its longitudinal axis and anisotropic fracture behaviour is found at macrostructural level at the tensile failure of the cracked specimens. An in situ optical technique known as video image correlation VIC-2D is used to get an insight into this failure mechanism by tensile testing transversally fatigue cracked plane specimens extracted from the cold-drawn wires. Finally, the experimentally obtained damage tolerance curve of the cold-drawn ferritic–austenitic stainless steel wires is compared with that of an elementary plastic collapse model and existing data of two types of high strength eutectoid steel currently used as prestressing steel for concrete.