The effect of life expectancy on fertility, saving, schooling and economic growth: theory and evidence

We construct a simple growth model where agents with uncertain survival choose schooling time, life-cycle consumption and the number of children. We show that rising longevity reduces fertility but raises saving, schooling time and the growth rate at a diminishing rate. Cross-section analyses using data from 76 countries support these propositions: life expectancy has a significant positive effect on the saving rate, secondary school enrollment and growth but a significant negative effect on fertility. Through sensitivity analyses, the effect on the saving rate is inconclusive, while the effects on the other variables are robust and consistent. These estimated effects are decreasing in life expectancy. Copyright The editors of the Scandinavian Journal of Economics 2005.

The chemical composition of α cen A: Strong lines and the ABO theory of collisional line broadening

The mean abundances of Mg, Si, Ca, Ti, Cr, and Fe based on both strong and weak lines of alpha CenAare determined by matching the observed line profiles with those synthesised from stellar atmospheric models and comparing these results with a similar analysis for the Sun. There is good agreement between the abundances from strong and weak lines. Strong lines should generally be an excellent indicator of abundance and far easier to measure than the weak lines normally used. Until the development of the Anstee, Barklem, and O'Mara ( ABO) theory for collisional line broadening, the uncertainty in the value of the damping constant prevented strong lines being used for abundance determinations other than in close differential analyses. We found that alpha Cen A has a mean overabundance of 0.12 +/- 0.06 dex compared to solar mean abundances. This result agrees remarkably well with previous studies that did not use strong lines or the ABO theory for collisional line broadening. Our result supports the conclusion that reliable abundances can be derived from strong lines provided this new theory for line broadening is used to calculate the van derWaals damping.

The role of management incentives in successful information systems development and implementation

Because organizations are making large investments in Information systems (IS), efficient IS project management has been found critical to success. This study examines how the use of incentives can improve the project success. Agency theory is used to: identify motivational factors of project success, help the IS owners to understand to what extent management incentives can improve IS development and implementation (ISD/I). The outcomes will help practitioners and researchers to build on theoretical model of project management elements which lead to project success. Given the principal-agent nature of most significant scale of IS development, insights that will allow for greater alignment of the agent’s goals with those of the principal through incentive contracts, will serve to make ISD/I both more efficient and more effective, leading to more successful IS projects.

Development and trialling of a behavioural intervention for patients with atrial fibrillation initiating oral anticoagulation:the 'treat' study

Purpose: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common heart arrhythmia and is associated with an increased risk of stroke. Stroke risk is commonly treated with oral anticoagulation (OAC) with a narrow therapeutic range (INR 2.0 to 3.0); which is poorly controlled in practice. Barriers to adherence include poor knowledge, and inaccurate perceptions surrounding illness and medications. Trial registration: ISRCTN93952605. Systematic review: Seven trials of educational, self-monitoring and decision aid interventions were included in a systematic review. Pooled analysis suggested education OR, 95% CI 7.89 (5.54-10.24) and self monitoring OR (95% CI) 5.47(2.55-8.39) significantly improve TTR; whereas decision aids are no more effective in reducing decision conflict than usual care, OR (95% CI) -0.10 (-0.17 to -0.02). Intervention development: The intervention was theoretically-driven (utilising the common sense and beliefs about medication models) and developed with expert patient feedback. Described using behavioural change techniques, the one-off group session included an educational booklet, ‘expert-patient’ focussed DVD, and worksheet. Methods: Ninety seven warfarin-naïve AF patients were randomised to receive the intervention (n=43), or usual care (n=54). The primary endpoint was time within therapeutic range (TTR), secondary endpoints included knowledge, quality of life (AF-QoL-18), beliefs about medication (BMQ), illness perceptions (IPQ-B), and anxiety and depression (HADS). Results: Intervention group had significantly higher TTR than usual care (78.5% vs. 66.7%; p=0.01). Knowledge changed significantly across time (F (3, 47) = 6.4; p<0.01), but not between groups (F (1, 47) = 3.3; p = 0.07). At six months knowledge predicted TTR (r=0.245; p=0.04). Illness concern negatively correlated with TTR (r= - 0.199; p=0.05). General Harm scores at one month predicted TTR (F (1, 72) = 4.08; p=0.048). There were significant differences in emotional representations (F (3, 49) = 3.3 (3, 49); p= 0.03), anxiety (F (3, 46) = 25.2; p<0.01) and depression (F (3, 46) = 37.7; p<0.01) across time. Conclusion: A theory-driven educational intervention can improve TTR in AF patients and potentially reduce the risk of adverse clinical outcomes. Improving education provision for AF patients is essential to ensure efficacious treatment.

Small business development and the “learning organisation”

The paper proffers a tentative conceptualisation of the “small business strategic learning process”, demonstrating the complexity of the small firm learning and management task. The framework, built upon personal construct theory and learning theories, is elaborated through the grounding of relevant areas of the strategic management literature in an understanding of the distinctive managerial and behavioural features of the small business. The framework is then utilised to underpin consideration of the concepts of “organisational learning” and the “learning organisation” within a small firm developmental context. It is suggested that whilst organisational learning may be a key and effective small business management approach to underpin sustainable development, the learning organisation, as currently conceived in the mainstream literature, fails to recognise and address the idiosyncrasies, problems and constraints relating to sustainable small business development. There does appear, however, to be great potential for extending understanding of the learning organisation concept into the small business context. An indicative research agenda is suggested.

Development and psychometric tests of the Chinese-version low vision quality of life questionnaire

Background/Aims: To develop and assess the psychometric validity of a Chinese language Vision Health related quality-of-life (VRQoL) measurement instrument for the Chinese visually impaired. Methods: The Low Vision Quality of Life Questionnaire (LVQOL) was translated and adapted into the Chinese-version Low Vision Quality of Life Questionnaire (CLVQOL). The CLVQOL was completed by 100 randomly selected people with low vision (primary group) and 100 people with normal vision (control group). Ninety-four participants from the primary group completed the CLVQOL a second time 2 weeks later (test-retest group). The internal consistency reliability, test-retest reliability, item-internal consistency, item-discrimination validity, construct validity and discriminatory power of the CLVQOL were calculated. Results: The review committee agreed that the CLVQOL replicated the meaning of the LVQOL and was sensitive to cultural differences. The Cronbach's α coefficient and the split-half coefficient for the four scales and total CLVQOL scales were 0.75-0.97. The test-retest reliability as estimated by the intraclass correlations coefficient was 0.69-0.95. Item-internal consistency was >0.4 and item-discrimination validity was generally <0.40. The Varimax rotation factor analysis of the CLVQOL identified four principal factors. the quality-of-life rating of four subscales and the total score of the CLVQOL of the primary group were lower than those of the Control group, both in hospital-based subjects and community-based subjects. Conclusion: The CLVQOL Chinese is a culturally specific vision-related quality-of-life measure instrument. It satisfies conventional psychometric criteria, discriminates visually healthy populations from low vision patients and may be valuable in screening the local community as well as for use in clinical practice or research. © Springer 2005.

Autumn Training School. Development and Promotion of Open Access to Scientific Information and Research (September 19–20, 2014, Veliko Tarnovo, Bulgaria), organized in the frame of DiPP2014

The autumn training school Development and Promotion of Open Access to Scientific Information and Research is organized in the frame of the Fourth International Conference on Digital Presentation and Preservation of Cultural and Scientific Heritage—DiPP2014 (September 18–21, 2014, Veliko Tarnovo, Bulgaria, http://dipp2014.math.bas.bg/), organized under the UNESCO patronage. The main organiser is the Institute of Mathematics and Informatics, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences with the support of EU project FOSTER (http://www.fosteropenscience.eu/) and the P. R. Slaveykov Regional Public Library in Veliko Tarnovo, Bulgaria.

Development and implementation of a tool to assess the micro/macro elements in an organization

This study examines the congruency of planning between organizational structure and process, through an evaluation and planning model known as the Micro/Macro Dynamic Planning Grid. The model compares day-to-day planning within an organization to planning imposed by organizational administration and accrediting agencies. A survey instrument was developed to assess the micro and macro sociological analysis elements utilized by an organization.^ The Micro/Macro Dynamic Planning Grid consists of four quadrants. Each quadrant contains characteristics that reflect the interaction between the micro and macro elements of planning, objectives and goals within an organization. The Over Macro/Over Micro, Quadrant 1, contains attributes that reflect a tremendous amount of action and ongoing adjustments, typical of an organization undergoing significant changes in either leadership, program and/or structure. Over Macro/Under Micro, Quadrant 2, reflects planning characteristics found in large, bureaucratic systems with little regard given to the workings of their component parts. Under Macro/Under Micro, Quadrant 3, reflects the uncooperative, uncoordinated organization, one that contains a multiplicity of viewpoints, language, objectives and goals. Under Macro/Under Micro, Quadrant 4 represents the worst case scenario for any organization. The attributes of this quadrant are very reactive, chaotic, non-productive and redundant.^ There were three phases to the study: development of the initial instrument, pilot testing the initial instrument and item revision, and administration and assessment of the refined instrument. The survey instrument was found to be valid and reliable for the purposes and audiences herein described.^ In order to expand the applicability of the instrument to other organizational settings, the survey was administered to three professional colleges within a university.^ The first three specific research questions collectively answered, in the affirmative, the basic research question: Can the Micro/Macro Dynamic Planning Grid be applied to an organization through an organizational development tool? The first specific question: Can an instrument be constructed that applies the Micro/Macro Dynamic Planning Grid? The second specific research question: Is the constructed instrument valid and reliable? The third specific research question: Does an instrument that applies the Micro/Macro Dynamic Planning Grid assess congruency of micro and macro planning, goals and objectives within an organization? The fourth specific research question: What are the differences in the responses based on roles and responsibilities within an organization? involved statistical analysis of the response data and comparisons obtained with the demographic data. (Abstract shortened by UMI.) ^

Pivot or periphery? Xinjiang's regional development and Chinese-Central Asian relations at the century's end

Xinjiang, once described by Owen Lattimore as the "pivot of Asia", has played a strategically important role in China's national defense and security. Historically linked on the famous Silk Road with Central Asia, Xinjiang was crucial to East-West economic and cultural exchanges. During the period of Russian/Soviet expansion into Central Asia and Sino-Soviet rivalry, China's need for Xinjiang's defense and territorial integrity became paramount, and consequently Xinjiang's economy was relegated to the periphery.^ The demise of the Soviet Union--which resulted in the independence of five Central Asian states--and China's reform suggest dramatic new possibilities for Xinjiang's regional development as well as interregional cooperation. As China has begun to shift regional emphasis to the interior, Xinjiang's economic development will be accelerated. With the growth of Sino/Xinjiang-Central Asian relations, Xinjiang's importance will not only be borne out in terms of defense and security, but more significantly in terms of trade and economics. At the century's end and the beginning of the 21st century, Xinjiang will likely move away from the periphery and play an increasingly pivotal role in the economy. ^

The development and testing of a multivariate model of differentiation of self among Hispanics

Individuals of Hispanic origin are the nation's largest minority (13.4%). Therefore, there is a need for models and methods that are culturally appropriate for mental health research with this burgeoning population. This is an especially salient issue when applying family systems theories to Hispanics, who are heavily influenced by family bonds in a way that appears to be different from the more individualistic non-Hispanic White culture. Bowen asserted that his family systems' concept of differentiation of self, which values both individuality and connectedness, could be universally applied. However, there is a paucity of research systematically assessing the applicability of the differentiation of self construct in ethnic minority populations. ^ This dissertation tested a multivariate model of differentiation of self with a Hispanic sample. The manner in which the construct of differentiation of self was being assessed and how accurately it represented this particular ethnic minority group's functioning was examined. Additionally, the proposed model included key contextual variables (e.g., anxiety, relationship satisfaction, attachment and acculturation related variables) which have been shown to be related to the differentiation process. ^ The results from structural equation modeling (SEM) analyses confirmed and extended previous research, and helped to illuminate the complex relationships between key factors that need to be considered in order to better understand individuals with this cultural background. Overall results indicated that the manner in which Hispanic individuals negotiate the boundaries of interconnectedness with a sense of individual expression appears to be different from their non-Hispanic White counterparts in some important ways. These findings illustrate the need for research on Hispanic individuals that provides a more culturally sensitive framework. ^

Development and validation of an instrument to predict online student success using faculty perceptions

Distance learning is growing and transforming educational institutions. The increasing use of distance learning by higher education institutions and particularly community colleges coupled with the higher level of student attrition in online courses than in traditional classrooms suggests that increased attention should be paid to factors that affect online student course completion. The purpose of the study was to develop and validate an instrument to predict community college online student course completion based on faculty perceptions, yielding a prediction model of online course completion rates. Social Presence and Media Richness theories were used to develop a theoretically-driven measure of online course completion. This research study involved surveying 311 community college faculty who taught at least one online course in the past 2 years. Email addresses of participating faculty were provided by two south Florida community colleges. Each participant was contacted through email, and a link to an Internet survey was given. The survey response rate was 63% (192 out of 303 available questionnaires). Data were analyzed through factor analysis, alpha reliability, and multiple regression. The exploratory factor analysis using principal component analysis with varimax rotation yielded a four-factor solution that accounted for 48.8% of the variance. Consistent with Social Presence theory, the factors with their percent of variance in parentheses were: immediacy (21.2%), technological immediacy (11.0%), online communication and interactivity (10.3%), and intimacy (6.3%). Internal consistency of the four factors was calculated using Cronbach's alpha (1951) with reliability coefficients ranging between .680 and .828. Multiple regression analysis yielded a model that significantly predicted 11% of the variance of the dependent variable, the percentage of student who completed the online course. As indicated in the literature (Johnson & Keil, 2002; Newberry, 2002), Media Richness theory appears to be closely related to Social Presence theory. However, elements from this theory did not emerge in the factor analysis.

The early development and pilot -testing of a case management intervention with victims of stalking: An evaluation study

This study evaluated the early development and pilot-testing of Project IMPACT, a case management intervention for victims of stalking. The Design and Development framework (Rothman & Thomas, 1994) was used as a guide for program development and evaluation. Nine research questions examined the processes and outcomes associated with program implementation. ^ The sample included all 36 clients who participated in Project IMPACT between February of 2000 and June of 2001, as well as the victim advocates who provided them with services. Quantitative and qualitative data were drawn from client case files, participant observation field notes and interview transcriptions. Quantitative data were entered into three databases where: (1) clients were the units of analysis (n = 36), (2) services were the units of analysis (n = 1146), and (3) goals were the units of analysis (n = 149). These data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, Pearson's Chi-square, Spearman's Rho, Phi, Cramer's V, Wilcoxon's Matched Pairs Signed-Ranked Test and McNemar's Test Statistic. Qualitative data were reduced via open, axial and selective coding methods. Grounded theory and case study frameworks were utilized to analyze these data. ^ Results showed that most clients noted an improved sense of well-being and safety, although residual symptoms of trauma remained for numerous individuals. Stalkers appeared to respond to criminal and civil justice-based interventions by reducing violent and threatening behaviors; however, covert behaviors continued. The study produced findings that provided preliminary support for the use of several intervention components including support services, psycho-education, safety planning, and boundary spanning. The psycho-education and safety planning in particular seemed to help clients cognitively reframe their perceptions of the stalking experience and gain a sense of increased safety and well-being. A 65% level of satisfactory goal achievement was observed overall, although goals involving justice-based organizations were associated with lower achievement. High service usage was related to low-income clients and those lacking in social support. Numerous inconsistencies in program implementation were found to be associated with the skills and experiences of victim advocates. Thus, recommendations were made to further refine, develop and evaluate the intervention. ^

Design concept evaluation based on rough number and information entropy theory

Concept evaluation at the early phase of product development plays a crucial role in new product development. It determines the direction of the subsequent design activities. However, the evaluation information at this stage mainly comes from experts' judgments, which is subjective and imprecise. How to manage the subjectivity to reduce the evaluation bias is a big challenge in design concept evaluation. This paper proposes a comprehensive evaluation method which combines information entropy theory and rough number. Rough number is first presented to aggregate individual judgments and priorities and to manipulate the vagueness under a group decision-making environment. A rough number based information entropy method is proposed to determine the relative weights of evaluation criteria. The composite performance values based on rough number are then calculated to rank the candidate design concepts. The results from a practical case study on the concept evaluation of an industrial robot design show that the integrated evaluation model can effectively strengthen the objectivity across the decision-making processes.