Computer modelling of human behaviour in aircraft fire accidents

The mathematical simulation of the evacuation process has a wide and largely untapped scope of application within the aircraft industry. The function of the mathematical model is to provide insight into complex behaviour by allowing designers, legislators, and investigators to ask ‘what if’ questions. Such a model, EXODUS, is currently under development, and this paper describes its evolution and potential applications. EXODUS is an egress model designed to simulate the evacuation of large numbers of individuals from an enclosure, such as an aircraft. The model tracks the trajectory of each individual as they make their way out of the enclosure or are overcome by fire hazards, such as heat and toxic gases. The software is expert system-based, the progressive motion and behaviour of each individual being determined by a set of heuristics or rules. EXODUS comprises five core interacting components: (i) the Movement Submodel — controls the physical movement of individual passengers from their current position to the most suitable neighbouring location; (ii) the Behaviour Submodel — determines an individual's response to the current prevailing situation; (iii) the Passenger Submodel — describes an individual as a collection of 22 defining attributes and variables; (iv) the Hazard Submodel — controls the atmospheric and physical environment; and (v) the Toxicity Submodel — determines the effects on an individual exposed to the fire products, heat, and narcotic gases through the Fractional Effective Dose calculations. These components are briefly described and their capabilities and limitations are demonstrated through comparison with experimental data and several hypothetical evacuation scenarios.

A new heuristic for three-machine flow shop scheduling

This paper considers the problem of sequencing n jobs in a three-machine flow shop with the objective of minimizing the makespan, which is the completion time of the last job. An O(n log n) time heuristic that is based on Johnson's algorithm is presented. It is shown to generate a schedule with length at most 5/3 times that of an optimal schedule, thereby reducing the previous best available worst-case performance ratio of 2. An application to the general flow shop is also discussed.

Hydrocarbon field size distributions: a case study in mixed integer nonlinear programming

Of key importance to oil and gas companies is the size distribution of fields in the areas that they are drilling. Recent arguments suggest that there are many more fields yet to be discovered in mature provinces than had previously been thought because the underlying distribution is monotonic not peaked. According to this view the peaked nature of the distribution for discovered fields reflects not the underlying distribution but the effect of economic truncation. This paper contributes to the discussion by analysing up-to-date exploration and discovery data for two mature provinces using the discovery-process model, based on sampling without replacement and implicitly including economic truncation effects. The maximum likelihood estimation involved generates a high-dimensional mixed-integer nonlinear optimization problem. A highly efficient solution strategy is tested, exploiting the separable structure and handling the integer constraints by treating the problem as a masked allocation problem in dynamic programming.

Mathematical notation in formal specification: Too difficult for the masses? [Correspondence]

The phrase “not much mathematics required” can imply a variety of skill levels. When this phrase is applied to computer scientists, software engineers, and clients in the area of formal specification, the word “much” can be widely misinterpreted with disastrous consequences. A small experiment in reading specifications revealed that students already trained in discrete mathematics and the specification notation performed very poorly; much worse than could reasonably be expected if formal methods proponents are to be believed.

HyperJoseph: the hypertextual organization. Epistemological considerations

HYPERJOSEPH combines hypertext, information retrieval, literary studies, Biblical scholarship, and linguistics. Dialectically, this paper contrasts hypertextual form (the extant tool) and AI-captured content (a desideratum), in the HYPERJOSEPH project. The discussion is more general and oriented to epistemology.

Tambalacoque. For a formal account of the gist of a scholarly argument

Argumentation as reflected in a short communication from the published literature of botany and zoology is discussed. Trying to capture the logic structure of the argument, however imperfectly, is relevant to information science and depends on a particular goal: namely, to potentially benefit the task of sketching the relationship between bibliographic entries in a better manner than is possible with present-day bibliometric or scientometric practice. This imposes tight limits on the depth of analysis of the text.

From ALIBI to COLUMBUS. The long march to self-aware, reflective computational models of humor

One thing is (a) to develop a system that handles some task to one's satisfaction, and also has a universally recognized myrthful side to its output. Another thing is (b) to provide an analysis of why you are getting such a byproduct. Yet another thing is (c) to develop a model that incorporates reflection about some phenomenon in humor for its own sake. This paper selects for discussion especially Alibi, going on to describe the preliminaries of Columbus. The former, which fits in (a), is a planner with an explanatory capability. It invents pretexts. It's no legal defense, but it is relevant to evidential thinking in AI & Law. Some of the output pretext are myrthful. Not in the sense they are silly: they are not. A key factor seems to be the very alacrity at explaining out detail after detail of globally damning evidence. I attempt a reanalysis of Alibi in respect of (b). As to Columbus, it fits instead in (c). We introduce here the basics of this (unimplemented) model, developed to account for a sample text in parody.

The prediction of fire propagation in enclosure fires

In this paper we present some early work concerned with the development of a simple solid fuel combustion model incorporated within a Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) framework. The model is intended for use in engineering applications of fire field modelling and represents an extension of this technique to situations involving the combustion of solid cellulosic hels A simple solid &el combustion model consisting of a thermal pyrolysis model, a six flux radiation model and an eddydissipation model for gaseous combustion have been developed and implemented within the CFD code CFDS-FLOW3D The model is briefly described and demonstrated through two applications involving fire spread in a compartment with a plywood lined ceiling. The two scenarios considered involve a fire in an open and closed compartment The model is shown to be able to qualitatively predict behaviours similar to flashover - in the case of the open room - and backdrafl - in the case of the initially closed room.

Numerical optimisation of water curtain barriers design

The interactions between water curtain protective barriers and impinging cold gas clouds released during industrial accidents are simulated by a 2D finite difference code using a PSI-cell of the heat, mass and momentum transfer processes between the phases. A consistent derivation of the continuous phase source terms is presented. The results of early simulations of an existing 1:10 experimental model of a water curtain impacted by a cold gas cloud are presented for two typical curtain configurations.

[Book review] Book of Shadows

Tony Mann provides a review of the book: Simon Biggs, Book of Shadows, Ellipsis (Electric Art Series: 1), 64pp. with CD-Rom, 1996, ISBN 1-899858-156. £15. [Needs Multimedia PC (Windows, 486 or Pentium processor), or Macintosh (68040 or PowerPC)]

[Book review] Instruction Paintings

Tony Mann provides a review of the book: Yoko Ono, Instruction Paintings, Weatherhill Inc., 1996, ISBN 0-8348-0348-8, £12.99

Shop scheduling problems under precedence constraints

The paper considers a scheduling model that generalizes the well-known open shop, flow shop, and job shop models. For that model, called the super shop, we study the complexity of finding a time-optimal schedule in both preemptive and non-preemptive cases assuming that precedence constraints are imposed over the set of jobs. Two types of precedence rela-tions are considered. Most of the arising problems are proved to be NP-hard, while for some of them polynomial-time algorithms are presented.