A global blended tropopause based on ERA data, Part I: Climatology

A new tropopause definition, based on a flow-dependent blending of the traditional thermal tropopause with one based on potential vorticity, has been developed. The benefits of such a blending algorithm are most apparent in regions with synoptic scale fluctuations between tropical and extratropical airmasses. The properties of the local airmass determine the relative contributions to the location of the blended tropopause, rather than this being determined by a specified function of latitude. Global climatologies of tropopause height, temperature, potential temperature and zonal wind, based on European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis (ERA) ERA-Interim data, are presented for the period 1989-2007. Features of the seasonal-mean tropopause are discussed on a global scale, alongside a focus on selected monthly climatologies for the two high latitude regions and the tropical belt. The height differences between climatologies based on ERA-Interim and ERA-40 data are also presented. Key spatial and temporal features seen in earlier climatologies, based mainly on the World Meteorological Organization thermal tropopause definition, are reproduced with the new definition. Tropopause temperatures are consistent with those from earlier climatologies, despite some differences in height in the extratropics.

A stress relaxation model for the viscoelastic solids based on the steady-state creep equation

Creep and stress relaxation are inherent mechanical behaviors of viscoelastic materials. It is considered that both are different performances of one identical physical phenomenon. The relationship between the decay stress and time during stress relaxation has been derived from the power law equation of the steady-state creep. The model was used to analyse the stress relaxation curves of various different viscoelastic materials (such as pure polycrystalline ice, polymers, foods, bones, metal, animal tissues, etc.). The calculated results using the theoretical model agree with the experimental data very well. Here we show that the new mathematical formula is not only simple but its parameters have the clear physical meanings. It is suitable to materials with a very broad scope and has a strong predictive ability.

Modeling requirement driven architecture of adaptive healthcare system based on semiotics

In order to improve the quality of healthcare services, the integrated large-scale medical information system is needed to adapt to the changing medical environment. In this paper, we propose a requirement driven architecture of healthcare information system with hierarchical architecture. The system operates through the mapping mechanism between these layers and thus can organize functions dynamically adapting to user’s requirement. Furthermore, we introduce the organizational semiotics methods to capture and analyze user’s requirement through ontology chart and norms. Based on these results, the structure of user’s requirement pattern (URP) is established as the driven factor of our system. Our research makes a contribution to design architecture of healthcare system which can adapt to the changing medical environment.

Genes driving potato tuber initiation and growth: identification based on transcriptional changes using the POCI array

The increasing amount of available expressed gene sequence data makes whole-transcriptome analysis of certain crop species possible. Potato currently has the second largest number of publicly available expressed sequence tag (EST) sequences among the Solanaceae. Most of these ESTs, plus other proprietary sequences, were combined and used to generate a unigene assembly. The set of 246,182 sequences produced 46,345 unigenes, which were used to design a 44K 60-mer oligo array (Potato Oligo Chip Initiative: POCI). In this study, we attempt to identify genes controlling and driving the process of tuber initiation and growth by implementing large-scale transcriptional changes using the newly developed POCI array. Major gene expression profiles could be identified exhibiting differential expression at key developmental stages. These profiles were associated with functional roles in cell division and growth. A subset of genes involved in the regulation of the cell cycle, based on their Gene Ontology classification, exhibit a clear transient upregulation at tuber onset indicating increased cell division during these stages. The POCI array allows the study of potato gene expression on a much broader level than previously possible and will greatly enhance analysis of transcriptional control mechanisms in a wide range of potato research areas. POCI sequence and annotation data are publicly available through the POCI database (http://pgrc.ipk-gatersleben.de/poci).

Recovery based on plot experiments is a poor predictor of landscape-level population impacts of agricultural pesticides

Current European Union regulatory risk assessment allows application of pesticides provided that recovery of nontarget arthropods in-crop occurs within a year. Despite the long-established theory of source-sink dynamics, risk assessment ignores depletion of surrounding populations and typical field trials are restricted to plot-scale experiments. In the present study, the authors used agent-based modeling of 2 contrasting invertebrates, a spider and a beetle, to assess how the area of pesticide application and environmental half-life affect the assessment of recovery at the plot scale and impact the population at the landscape scale. Small-scale plot experiments were simulated for pesticides with different application rates and environmental half-lives. The same pesticides were then evaluated at the landscape scale (10 km × 10 km) assuming continuous year-on-year usage. The authors' results show that recovery time estimated from plot experiments is a poor indicator of long-term population impact at the landscape level and that the spatial scale of pesticide application strongly determines population-level impact. This raises serious doubts as to the utility of plot-recovery experiments in pesticide regulatory risk assessment for population-level protection. Predictions from the model are supported by empirical evidence from a series of studies carried out in the decade starting in 1988. The issues raised then can now be addressed using simulation. Prediction of impacts at landscape scales should be more widely used in assessing the risks posed by environmental stressors.

Morgawr: an experimental Bronze Age-type sewn-plank craft based on the Ferriby boats

This paper reports on the construction of a full-scale Bronze Age-type sewn-plank boat based on the Ferriby boats. The boat, which was named Morgawr, was constructed in the National Maritime Museum Cornwall in Falmouth, England, during 2012 and the first months of 2013, as part of a larger exhibition in the museum. This paper provides the background and context of the project, describes the process of building the craft, and reflects in particular on differences between Morgawr and the ‘hypothetical reconstruction of a complete sewn-plank boat’ published in 1990 by Ted Wright and John Coates which formed the basis for this project.

Changes in fire regimes since the Last Glacial Maximum: an assessment based on a global synthesis and analysis of charcoal data

Fire activity has varied globally and continuously since the last glacial maximum (LGM) in response to long-term changes in global climate and shorter-term regional changes in climate, vegetation, and human land use. We have synthesized sedimentary charcoal records of biomass burning since the LGM and present global maps showing changes in fire activity for time slices during the past 21,000 years (as differences in charcoal accumulation values compared to pre-industrial). There is strong broad-scale coherence in fire activity after the LGM, but spatial heterogeneity in the signals increases thereafter. In North America, Europe and southern South America, charcoal records indicate less-than-present fire activity during the deglacial period, from 21,000 to ∼11,000 cal yr BP. In contrast, the tropical latitudes of South America and Africa show greater-than-present fire activity from ∼19,000 to ∼17,000 cal yr BP and most sites from Indochina and Australia show greater-than-present fire activity from 16,000 to ∼13,000 cal yr BP. Many sites indicate greater-than-present or near-present activity during the Holocene with the exception of eastern North America and eastern Asia from 8,000 to ∼3,000 cal yr BP, Indonesia and Australia from 11,000 to 4,000 cal yr BP, and southern South America from 6,000 to 3,000 cal yr BP where fire activity was less than present. Regional coherence in the patterns of change in fire activity was evident throughout the post-glacial period. These complex patterns can largely be explained in terms of large-scale climate controls modulated by local changes in vegetation and fuel load

Evaluation of the Plant–Craig stochastic convection scheme (v2.0) in the ensemble forecasting system MOGREPS-R (24 km) based on the Unified Model (v7.3)

The Plant–Craig stochastic convection parameterization (version 2.0) is implemented in the Met Office Regional Ensemble Prediction System (MOGREPS-R) and is assessed in comparison with the standard convection scheme with a simple stochastic scheme only, from random parameter variation. A set of 34 ensemble forecasts, each with 24 members, is considered, over the month of July 2009. Deterministic and probabilistic measures of the precipitation forecasts are assessed. The Plant–Craig parameterization is found to improve probabilistic forecast measures, particularly the results for lower precipitation thresholds. The impact on deterministic forecasts at the grid scale is neutral, although the Plant–Craig scheme does deliver improvements when forecasts are made over larger areas. The improvements found are greater in conditions of relatively weak synoptic forcing, for which convective precipitation is likely to be less predictable.

An improved estimate of leaf area index based on the histogram analysis of hemispherical photographs

Leaf area index (LAI) is a key parameter that affects the surface fluxes of energy, mass, and momentum over vegetated lands, but observational measurements are scarce, especially in remote areas with complex canopy structure. In this paper we present an indirect method to calculate the LAI based on the analyses of histograms of hemispherical photographs. The optimal threshold value (OTV), the gray-level required to separate the background (sky) and the foreground (leaves), was analytically calculated using the entropy crossover method (Sahoo, P.K., Slaaf, D.W., Albert, T.A., 1997. Threshold selection using a minimal histogram entropy difference. Optical Engineering 36(7) 1976-1981). The OTV was used to calculate the LAI using the well-known gap fraction method. This methodology was tested in two different ecosystems, including Amazon forest and pasturelands in Brazil. In general, the error between observed and calculated LAI was similar to 6%. The methodology presented is suitable for the calculation of LAI since it is responsive to sky conditions, automatic, easy to implement, faster than commercially available software, and requires less data storage. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Proton flux induced by free fatty acids across phospholipid bilayers: New evidences based on short-circuit measurements in planar lipid membranes

Free fatty acids (FFA) are important mediators of proton transport across membranes. However, information concerning the influence of the Structural features of both FFA and the membrane environment on the proton translocation mechanisms across phospholipid membranes is relatively scant. The effects of FFA chain length, unsaturation and membrane composition on proton transport have been addressed in this study by means of electrical measurements in planar lipid bilayers. Proton conductance (G(H)(+)) was calculated from open-circuit voltage and short-circuit current density measurements. We found that cis-unsaturated FFA caused a more pronounced effect on proton transport as compared to Saturated and trans-unsaturated FFA. Cholesterol and cardiolipin decreased membrane leak conductance. Cardiolipin also decreased proton conductance. These effects indicate a dual modulation of protein-independent proton transport by FFA: through a flip-flop mechanism and by modifying a proton diffusional pathway. Moreover the membrane phospholipid composition was shown to importantly affect both processes. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A novel approach for distributed application scheduling based on prediction of communication events

The evolution of commodity computing lead to the possibility of efficient usage of interconnected machines to solve computationally-intensive tasks, which were previously solvable only by using expensive supercomputers. This, however, required new methods for process scheduling and distribution, considering the network latency, communication cost, heterogeneous environments and distributed computing constraints. An efficient distribution of processes over such environments requires an adequate scheduling strategy, as the cost of inefficient process allocation is unacceptably high. Therefore, a knowledge and prediction of application behavior is essential to perform effective scheduling. In this paper, we overview the evolution of scheduling approaches, focusing on distributed environments. We also evaluate the current approaches for process behavior extraction and prediction, aiming at selecting an adequate technique for online prediction of application execution. Based on this evaluation, we propose a novel model for application behavior prediction, considering chaotic properties of such behavior and the automatic detection of critical execution points. The proposed model is applied and evaluated for process scheduling in cluster and grid computing environments. The obtained results demonstrate that prediction of the process behavior is essential for efficient scheduling in large-scale and heterogeneous distributed environments, outperforming conventional scheduling policies by a factor of 10, and even more in some cases. Furthermore, the proposed approach proves to be efficient for online predictions due to its low computational cost and good precision. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Exact Search Directions for Optimization of Linear and Nonlinear Models Based on Generalized Orthonormal Functions

A novel technique for selecting the poles of orthonormal basis functions (OBF) in Volterra models of any order is presented. It is well-known that the usual large number of parameters required to describe the Volterra kernels can be significantly reduced by representing each kernel using an appropriate basis of orthonormal functions. Such a representation results in the so-called OBF Volterra model, which has a Wiener structure consisting of a linear dynamic generated by the orthonormal basis followed by a nonlinear static mapping given by the Volterra polynomial series. Aiming at optimizing the poles that fully parameterize the orthonormal bases, the exact gradients of the outputs of the orthonormal filters with respect to their poles are computed analytically by using a back-propagation-through-time technique. The expressions relative to the Kautz basis and to generalized orthonormal bases of functions (GOBF) are addressed; the ones related to the Laguerre basis follow straightforwardly as a particular case. The main innovation here is that the dynamic nature of the OBF filters is fully considered in the gradient computations. These gradients provide exact search directions for optimizing the poles of a given orthonormal basis. Such search directions can, in turn, be used as part of an optimization procedure to locate the minimum of a cost-function that takes into account the error of estimation of the system output. The Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm is adopted here as the optimization procedure. Unlike previous related work, the proposed approach relies solely on input-output data measured from the system to be modeled, i.e., no information about the Volterra kernels is required. Examples are presented to illustrate the application of this approach to the modeling of dynamic systems, including a real magnetic levitation system with nonlinear oscillatory behavior.

A further exploration of a nucleophilicity index based on the gas-phase ionization potentials

An empirical nucleophilicity index based on the gas-phase ionization potentials has been recently shown to be useful categorizing and settling the nucleophilicity power of a series of captodative ethylenes reacting in cycloaddition reactions (L.R. Domingo, E. Chamorro, P. Perez, Journal of Organic Chemistry 73 (2008) 4615-4624). In the present work, the applicability of such model is tested within a broader series of substituted alkenes, substituted aromatic compounds and simple nucleophilic molecules. This index obtained within a Koopman`s theorem framework has been evaluated here in both gas and solution phases for several well-known nucleophiles. These results are found to be linearly correlated. Finally, the feasibility of the predictive character of this index has been discussed in comparison to the available experimental nucleophilicities of some amines in water. These results further support and validate the usefulness of such approximation in the modeling of the global nucleophilicity. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Microgranitic Enclaves as Products of Self-mixing Events: a Study of Open-system Processes in the Maua Granite, Sao Paulo, Brazil, Based on in situ Isotopic and Trace Elements in Plagioclase

Felsic microgranular enclaves with structures indicating that they interacted in a plastic state with their chemically similar host granite are abundant in the Maua Pluton, SE Brazil. Larger plagioclase xenocrysts are in textural disequilibrium with the enclave groundmass and show complex zoning patterns with partially resorbed An-rich cores (locally with patchy textures) surrounded by more sodic rims. In situ laser ablation-(multi-collector) inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry trace element and Sr isotopic analyses performed on the plagioclase xenocrysts indicate open-system crystallization; however, no evidence of derivation from more primitive basic melts is observed. The An-rich cores have more radiogenic initial Sr isotopic ratios that decrease towards the outermost part of the rims, which are in isotopic equilibrium with the matrix plagioclase. These profiles may have been produced by either (1) diffusional re-equilibration after rim crystallization from the enclave-forming magma, as indicated by relatively short calculated residence times, or (2) episodic contamination with a decrease of the contaminant ratio proportional to the extent to which the country rocks were isolated by the crystallization front. Profiles of trace elements with high diffusion coefficients would require unrealistically long residence times, and can be modeled in terms of fractional crystallization. A combination of trace element and Sr isotope data suggests that the felsic microgranular enclaves from the Maua Pluton are the products of interaction between end-member magmas that had similar compositions, thus recording `self-mixing` events.

Brazilian equity mutual funds: A general outlook based on performance

This dissertation main goal is to overview the Brazilian equity mutual funds returns. We find that active management is not effective for Ibovespa index, since Ibovespa active funds do not outperform the Ibovespa referenced funds. However, for IBrX index, active management do outperform the passive strategy. We found that Sustainable funds returns do not outperform the market, Endowment funds show poor performance, which could indicate strong regulation imposition over endowment funds portfolios. The size of a fund shows positive correlation to mean average returns and alphas. A fund’s lifetime is positively correlated to returns and to alphas, which could be related to more risk-taking by younger managers in order to pursue higher expected returns and, consequently, bigger inflows. Younger funds tend to have lower performance probably because, in taking more risks, they do not perform as expected. In addition, we find that the decreasing trend of the alpha evolution along the time is a sign of the industry decreasing returns of scale, which entails that managers have more difficulties to beat the market portfolio. Top 10s rankings show that funds appear more than once on the top 10s, which shows persistence of funds’ performance. Finally, concerning the deciles and quartiles rankings, the frequency of appearances changes among performance measures. There are measures which, when compared to others, strongly change the top and bottom for the decile and quartile members.