Limit Cycle Prediction of Systems with Fractional Controllers and Backlash

This article investigates the limit cycle (LC) prediction of systems with backlash by means of the describing function (DF) when using discrete fractional-order (FO) algorithms. The DF is an approximate method that gives good estimates of LCs. The implementation of FO controllers requires the use of rational approximations, but such realizations produce distinct dynamic types of behavior. This study analyzes the accuracy in the prediction of LCs, namely their amplitude and frequency, when using several different algorithms. To illustrate this problem we use FO-PID algorithms in the control of systems with backlash.

Using data mining with time series data in short-term stocks prediction

Data Mining (DM) methods are being increasingly used in prediction with time series data, in addition to traditional statistical approaches. This paper presents a literature review of the use of DM with time series data, focusing on short- time stocks prediction. This is an area that has been attracting a great deal of attention from researchers in the field. The main contribution of this paper is to provide an outline of the use of DM with time series data, using mainly examples related with short-term stocks prediction. This is important to a better understanding of the field. Some of the main trends and open issues will also be introduced.

Towards a Mobile Three-dimensional Modelling System for Underground Structures

Robotica 2012: 12th International Conference on Autonomous Robot Systems and Competitions April 11, 2012, Guimarães, Portugal

Application of Visual-Inertial SLAM for 3D Mapping of Underground Environments

The underground scenarios are one of the most challenging environments for accurate and precise 3d mapping where hostile conditions like absence of Global Positioning Systems, extreme lighting variations and geometrically smooth surfaces may be expected. So far, the state-of-the-art methods in underground modelling remain restricted to environments in which pronounced geometric features are abundant. This limitation is a consequence of the scan matching algorithms used to solve the localization and registration problems. This paper contributes to the expansion of the modelling capabilities to structures characterized by uniform geometry and smooth surfaces, as is the case of road and train tunnels. To achieve that, we combine some state of the art techniques from mobile robotics, and propose a method for 6DOF platform positioning in such scenarios, that is latter used for the environment modelling. A visual monocular Simultaneous Localization and Mapping (MonoSLAM) approach based on the Extended Kalman Filter (EKF), complemented by the introduction of inertial measurements in the prediction step, allows our system to localize himself over long distances, using exclusively sensors carried on board a mobile platform. By feeding the Extended Kalman Filter with inertial data we were able to overcome the major problem related with MonoSLAM implementations, known as scale factor ambiguity. Despite extreme lighting variations, reliable visual features were extracted through the SIFT algorithm, and inserted directly in the EKF mechanism according to the Inverse Depth Parametrization. Through the 1-Point RANSAC (Random Sample Consensus) wrong frame-to-frame feature matches were rejected. The developed method was tested based on a dataset acquired inside a road tunnel and the navigation results compared with a ground truth obtained by post-processing a high grade Inertial Navigation System and L1/L2 RTK-GPS measurements acquired outside the tunnel. Results from the localization strategy are presented and analyzed.

Development and validation of a risk model for prediction of hazardous alcohol consumption in general practice attendees : the PredictAL study

Background: Little is known about the risk of progression to hazardous alcohol use in people currently drinking at safe limits. We aimed to develop a prediction model (predictAL) for the development of hazardous drinking in safe drinkers. Methods: A prospective cohort study of adult general practice attendees in six European countries and Chile followed up over 6 months. We recruited 10,045 attendees between April 2003 to February 2005. 6193 European and 2462 Chilean attendees recorded AUDIT scores below 8 in men and 5 in women at recruitment and were used in modelling risk. 38 risk factors were measured to construct a risk model for the development of hazardous drinking using stepwise logistic regression. The model was corrected for over fitting and tested in an external population. The main outcome was hazardous drinking defined by an AUDIT score >= 8 in men and >= 5 in women. Results: 69.0% of attendees were recruited, of whom 89.5% participated again after six months. The risk factors in the final predictAL model were sex, age, country, baseline AUDIT score, panic syndrome and lifetime alcohol problem. The predictAL model's average c-index across all six European countries was 0.839 (95% CI 0.805, 0.873). The Hedge's g effect size for the difference in log odds of predicted probability between safe drinkers in Europe who subsequently developed hazardous alcohol use and those who did not was 1.38 (95% CI 1.25, 1.51). External validation of the algorithm in Chilean safe drinkers resulted in a c-index of 0.781 (95% CI 0.717, 0.846) and Hedge's g of 0.68 (95% CI 0.57, 0.78). Conclusions: The predictAL risk model for development of hazardous consumption in safe drinkers compares favourably with risk algorithms for disorders in other medical settings and can be a useful first step in prevention of alcohol misuse.

Adhesive selection for single lap bonded joints: Experimentation and advanced techniques for strength prediction

The integrity of multi-component structures is usually determined by their unions. Adhesive-bonding is often used over traditional methods because of the reduction of stress concentrations, reduced weight penalty, and easy manufacturing. Commercial adhesives range from strong and brittle (e.g., Araldite® AV138) to less strong and ductile (e.g., Araldite® 2015). A new family of polyurethane adhesives combines high strength and ductility (e.g., Sikaforce® 7888). In this work, the performance of the three above-mentioned adhesives was tested in single lap joints with varying values of overlap length (LO). The experimental work carried out is accompanied by a detailed numerical analysis by finite elements, either based on cohesive zone models (CZM) or the extended finite element method (XFEM). This procedure enabled detailing the performance of these predictive techniques applied to bonded joints. Moreover, it was possible to evaluate which family of adhesives is more suited for each joint geometry. CZM revealed to be highly accurate, except for largely ductile adhesives, although this could be circumvented with a different cohesive law. XFEM is not the most suited technique for mixed-mode damage growth, but a rough prediction was achieved.

Sepsis Mortality Prediction Based on Predisposition, Infection and Response

OBJECTIVE: To empirically test, based on a large multicenter, multinational database, whether a modified PIRO (predisposition, insult, response, and organ dysfunction) concept could be applied to predict mortality in patients with infection and sepsis. DESIGN: Substudy of a multicenter multinational cohort study (SAPS 3). PATIENTS: A total of 2,628 patients with signs of infection or sepsis who stayed in the ICU for >48 h. Three boxes of variables were defined, according to the PIRO concept. Box 1 (Predisposition) contained information about the patient's condition before ICU admission. Box 2 (Injury) contained information about the infection at ICU admission. Box 3 (Response) was defined as the response to the infection, expressed as a Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score after 48 h. INTERVENTIONS: None. MAIN MEASUREMENTS AND RESULTS: Most of the infections were community acquired (59.6%); 32.5% were hospital acquired. The median age of the patients was 65 (50-75) years, and 41.1% were female. About 22% (n=576) of the patients presented with infection only, 36.3% (n=953) with signs of sepsis, 23.6% (n=619) with severe sepsis, and 18.3% (n=480) with septic shock. Hospital mortality was 40.6% overall, greater in those with septic shock (52.5%) than in those with infection (34.7%). Several factors related to predisposition, infection and response were associated with hospital mortality. CONCLUSION: The proposed three-level system, by using objectively defined criteria for risk of mortality in sepsis, could be used by physicians to stratify patients at ICU admission or shortly thereafter, contributing to a better selection of management according to the risk of death.

Diversidade genética e resistência natural ao Maraviroc em estirpes do vírus da imunodeficiência humana Tipo 1 (HIV-1) em circulação em utilizadores de drogas por via endovenosa na Grande Lisboa

RESUMO: O maraviroc (MVC) é o único anti-retroviral antagonista do co-receptor CCR5 licenciado e interage com as ansas transmembranares de CCR5, induzindo uma alteração da sua conformação e impedindo a interacção com gp120. O MVC é activo apenas contra estirpes R5 de HIV-1, sendo utilizado em terapia de recurso. Neste trabalho, foi estudada a diversidade genética da região C2V3C3 do gene env de estirpes de HIV-1 de oxicodependentes por via endovenosa da Grande Lisboa, pesquisando-se também a presença de polimorfismos genéticos naturais. Foram utilizadas 52 amostras de plasma e para 35 destas foi amplificado por RT-nested PCR um produto de 565 pb. A análise filogenética revelou a seguinte distribuição de genótipos: 23 B (incluindo, provavelmente, 2 CRF14_BG), 8 A, 3 G e 1 F1. Após tradução, e por comparação com a sequência consenso B, verificou-se uma elevada frequência de polimorfismos genéticos, sendo encontradas algumas “assinaturas de aminoácidos” relativas aos subtipos não-B. Realizou-se ainda uma pesquisa de locais de N-glicosilação e a previsão da utilização de co-receptores (abordagem genotípica), com recurso às regras 11/25 e da carga líquida da ansa V3 e aos programas PSSM e geno2pheno[coreceptor]. Observou-se uma conservação genérica do número de locais de N-glicosilação e foram identificadas 5 sequências com tropismo X4 ou duplo. Por fim, com base na literatura, realizou-se uma pesquisa de polimorfismos genéticos associados a resistência ao MVC presentes na ansa V3. Foi observado um número elevado destas mutações. A presença dos padrões 11S+26V e 20F+25D+26V, num total de 3 sequências, é relevante, visto estes estarem inequivocamente associados à resistência in vivo ao MVC. Apesar de não estar ainda definido um perfil de resistência para o MVC, a presença das mutações encontradas, em indivíduos sem contacto prévio com o fármaco, trará implicações relevantes na sua gestão clínica, considerando a introdução do MVC na terapia de recurso.---------- ABSTRACT: Maraviroc (MVC) is the only CCR5 inhibitor licensed today. This drug interacts with the transmembrane helices of CCR5 co-receptor, inducing a conformation change of its extracellular loops and preventing the interaction with gp120. MVC is only active against R5 strains of HIV-1 and is currently used in salvage therapy. The genetic diversity of the env C2V3C3 region of HIV-1 strains from injecting drug users in the Greater Lisbon was studied, along with the presence of natural genetic polymorphisms. 52 plasma samples were used and the amplification by RT-nested PCR of a 565 bp-product was possible in 35 of them. The phylogenetic analysis revealed 23 sequences classified as subtype B (probably including 2 CRF14_BG), 8 A, 3 G and 1 F1. After translation, the presence of natural genetic polymorphisms was studied by comparison to a subtype B consensus. A high frequency of genetic polymorphisms was observed and significant “amino acid signatures” were found in association with non-B subtypes. A full characterization of the N-glycosylation sites was also performed and a coreceptor prediction (genotypic approach) was accomplished using the 11/25 and the V3 net charge rules and the programs PSSM and geno2pheno[coreceptor]. The number of N-glycosylation sites was generically preserved. Five sequences were defined as X4 or dual-tropic. Based on published data, a search for genetic polymorphisms, present in V3loop, associated to MVC resistance was finally undertaken. Several of such mutations were observed, being particularly interesting the presence of the patterns 11S+26V and 20F+25D+26V, in a total of 3 sequences, since these patterns have unequivocally been associated with MVC resistance in vivo. Although a resistance profile for MVC is not yet defined, the presence of these mutations in MVC-naïve populations may have significant impact in their clinical management in the future, especially considering the introduction of this drug in salvage therapy.

Carotid Intima-Media Thickness and Carotid Plaques Improves Prediction of Obstructive Angiographic Coronary Artery Disease in Women

Does carotid intima-media thickness (cIMT), a surrogate marker of cardiovascular events, have predictive incremental value over established risk factors for stable coronary artery disease (CAD)? Prospective study of 300 patients, with suspected stable CAD, admitted for an elective coronary angiography and carotid ultrasound. The CAD patients had a higher cIMT, which showed a modest predictive accuracy for CAD (area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve 0.638, 95% confidence interval 0.576-0.701, P < .001). The cIMT was an independent predictor of CAD, together with age, gender, and diabetes. C-statistic for CAD prediction by traditional risk factors was not significantly different from a model that included cIMT, carotid plaque presence, or both. However, in women, it was significantly increased by the addition of cIMT or carotid plaque presence. Although cIMT cannot be used as a sole indicator of CAD, it should be considered in the panel of investigations that is requested, particularly in women who are candidates for coronary angiography.

Intrusion tolerant routing with data consensus in wireless sensor networks

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia Informática

High or low initial setting price?: Initial setting price as prediction of intention to bid in on line auctions

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Correction of the anisotropy in resistivity: application to pore pressure prediction

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia Geológica (Georrecursos)

Creation of a web application for smart park system and parking prediction study for system integration

In the last few years, we have observed an exponential increasing of the information systems, and parking information is one more example of them. The needs of obtaining reliable and updated information of parking slots availability are very important in the goal of traffic reduction. Also parking slot prediction is a new topic that has already started to be applied. San Francisco in America and Santander in Spain are examples of such projects carried out to obtain this kind of information. The aim of this thesis is the study and evaluation of methodologies for parking slot prediction and the integration in a web application, where all kind of users will be able to know the current parking status and also future status according to parking model predictions. The source of the data is ancillary in this work but it needs to be understood anyway to understand the parking behaviour. Actually, there are many modelling techniques used for this purpose such as time series analysis, decision trees, neural networks and clustering. In this work, the author explains the best techniques at this work, analyzes the result and points out the advantages and disadvantages of each one. The model will learn the periodic and seasonal patterns of the parking status behaviour, and with this knowledge it can predict future status values given a date. The data used comes from the Smart Park Ontinyent and it is about parking occupancy status together with timestamps and it is stored in a database. After data acquisition, data analysis and pre-processing was needed for model implementations. The first test done was with the boosting ensemble classifier, employed over a set of decision trees, created with C5.0 algorithm from a set of training samples, to assign a prediction value to each object. In addition to the predictions, this work has got measurements error that indicates the reliability of the outcome predictions being correct. The second test was done using the function fitting seasonal exponential smoothing tbats model. Finally as the last test, it has been tried a model that is actually a combination of the previous two models, just to see the result of this combination. The results were quite good for all of them, having error averages of 6.2, 6.6 and 5.4 in vacancies predictions for the three models respectively. This means from a parking of 47 places a 10% average error in parking slot predictions. This result could be even better with longer data available. In order to make this kind of information visible and reachable from everyone having a device with internet connection, a web application was made for this purpose. Beside the data displaying, this application also offers different functions to improve the task of searching for parking. The new functions, apart from parking prediction, were: - Park distances from user location. It provides all the distances to user current location to the different parks in the city. - Geocoding. The service for matching a literal description or an address to a concrete location. - Geolocation. The service for positioning the user. - Parking list panel. This is not a service neither a function, is just a better visualization and better handling of the information.

Numerical prediction of diffusion and electric field-induced iron nanoparticle transport

Zero valent iron nanoparticles (nZVI) are considered very promising for the remediation of contaminated soils and groundwaters. However, an important issue related to their limited mobility remains unsolved. Direct current can be used to enhance the nanoparticles transport, based on the same principles of electrokinetic remediation. In this work, a generalized physicochemical model was developed and solved numerically to describe the nZVI transport through porous media under electric field, and with different electrolytes (with different ionic strengths). The model consists of the Nernst–Planck coupled system of equations, which accounts for the mass balance of ionic species in a fluid medium, when both the diffusion and electromigration of the ions are considered. The diffusion and electrophoretic transport of the negatively charged nZVI particles were also considered in the system. The contribution of electroosmotic flow to the overall mass transport was included in the model for all cases. The nZVI effective mobility values in the porous medium are very low (10−7–10−4 cm2 V−1 s−1), due to the counterbalance between the positive electroosmotic flow and the electrophoretic transport of the negatively charged nanoparticles. The higher the nZVI concentration is in the matrix, the higher the aggregation; therefore, low concentration of nZVI suspensions must be used for successful field application.

Development of 3D in vitro models for prediction of hepatic metabolism and toxicity

The development of human cell models that recapitulate hepatic functionality allows the study of metabolic pathways involved in toxicity and disease. The increased biological relevance, cost-effectiveness and high-throughput of cell models can contribute to increase the efficiency of drug development in the pharmaceutical industry. Recapitulation of liver functionality in vitro requires the development of advanced culture strategies to mimic in vivo complexity, such as 3D culture, co-cultures or biomaterials. However, complex 3D models are typically associated with poor robustness, limited scalability and compatibility with screening methods. In this work, several strategies were used to develop highly functional and reproducible spheroid-based in vitro models of human hepatocytes and HepaRG cells using stirred culture systems. In chapter 2, the isolation of human hepatocytes from resected liver tissue was implemented and a liver tissue perfusion method was optimized towards the improvement of hepatocyte isolation and aggregation efficiency, resulting in an isolation protocol compatible with 3D culture. In chapter 3, human hepatocytes were co-cultivated with mesenchymal stem cells (MSC) and the phenotype of both cell types was characterized, showing that MSC acquire a supportive stromal function and hepatocytes retain differentiated hepatic functions, stability of drug metabolism enzymes and higher viability in co-cultures. In chapter 4, a 3D alginate microencapsulation strategy for the differentiation of HepaRG cells was evaluated and compared with the standard 2D DMSO-dependent differentiation, yielding higher differentiation efficiency, comparable levels of drug metabolism activity and significantly improved biosynthetic activity. The work developed in this thesis provides novel strategies for 3D culture of human hepatic cell models, which are reproducible, scalable and compatible with screening platforms. The phenotypic and functional characterization of the in vitro systems performed contributes to the state of the art of human hepatic cell models and can be applied to the improvement of pre-clinical drug development efficiency of the process, model disease and ultimately, development of cell-based therapeutic strategies for liver failure.