992 resultados para CLIMATIC MODEL
Resumo:
We present a detailed study of glacial/interglacial deep sea benthic ostracod assemblage variability at IODP Site U1314 (subpolar North Atlantic) in relation to the history of ice-rafting events and changes in deep ocean circulation over the past 170 ky. Our records of ostracod diversity, abundance and dissolution and sediment properties (IRD and CaCO3) show an excellent correspondence to high amplitude orbital and millennial variability observed in the climate records (d13C and d18O) from neighboring deep water sites, suggesting that the benthic meiofauna fluctuates synchronously with the prevailing oceanographic conditions (surface ocean conditions, deep ocean circulation and water temperature and food flux). Krithe (dominant), Argilloecia and Cytheropteron are the most abundant and diverse genera in association with Rockallia enigmatica. Three ostracod assemblages are recognized. The genera Pennyella, Argilloecia, Pelecocythere, Ambocythere, Pseudobosquetina, Bradleya and Nannocythere are associated with interglacials and interstadials, and possibly reflect increased flux of food to the sediments and more vigorous NADW formation. A transitional assemblage composed of species of Cytheropteron, Xestoleberis and Eucythere is restricted to climatic transitions and indicate moderate environmental conditions and seasonal productivity. A glacial/stadial assemblage is characterized by a temporal predominance of either intermediate-depth and shallow water Arctic/subarctic species (belonging to Cytheropteron, Polycope, Pedicythere, Swainocythere, Cluthia, Heterocyprideis, Elofsonella and Finmarchinella) or abyssal North Atlantic ostracods (Bythocythere, Dutoitella, Bathycythere and Bythocypris). The influx of high latitude taxa can be partially explained by ice-rafting, but may also represent a shift of the location of intermediate and deep water convection to the area south of Iceland. Therefore the combination of species characteristic of different watermasses during glacials may reflect shifts in the influence of high nutrient southern source water (e.g. AABW) vs. low nutrient GNAIW during glacials.
Resumo:
Terrigenous sediment supply, marine transport, and depositional processes along tectonically active margins are key to decoding turbidite successions as potential archives of climatic and seismic forcings. Sequence stratigraphic models predict coarse-grained sediment delivery to deep-marine sites mainly during sea-level fall and lowstand. Marine siliciclastic deposition during transgressions and highstands has been attributed to sustained connectivity between terrigenous sources and marine sinks facilitated by narrow shelves. To decipher the controls on Holocene highstand turbidite deposition, we analyzed 12 sediment cores from spatially discrete, coeval turbidite systems along the Chile margin (29° - 40°S) with changing climatic and geomorphic characteristics but uniform changes in sea level. Sediment cores from intraslope basins in north-central Chile (29° - 33°S) offshore a narrow to absent shelf record a shut-off of turbidite deposition during the Holocene due to postglacial aridification. In contrast, core sites in south-central Chile (36° - 40°S) offshore a wide shelf record frequent turbidite deposition during highstand conditions. Two core sites are linked to the Biobío river-canyon system and receive sediment directly from the river mouth. However, intraslope basins are not connected via canyons to fluvial systems but yield even higher turbidite frequencies. High sediment supply combined with a wide shelf and an undercurrent moving sediment toward the shelf edge appear to control Holocene turbidite sedimentation and distribution. Shelf undercurrents may play an important role in lateral sediment transport and supply to the deep sea and need to be accounted for in sediment-mass balances.
Resumo:
Climatic changes are most pronounced in northern high latitude regions. Yet, there is a paucity of observational data, both spatially and temporally, such that regional-scale dynamics are not fully captured, limiting our ability to make reliable projections. In this study, a group of dynamical downscaling products were created for the period 1950 to 2100 to better understand climate change and its impacts on hydrology, permafrost, and ecosystems at a resolution suitable for northern Alaska. An ERA-interim reanalysis dataset and the Community Earth System Model (CESM) served as the forcing mechanisms in this dynamical downscaling framework, and the Weather Research & Forecast (WRF) model, embedded with an optimization for the Arctic (Polar WRF), served as the Regional Climate Model (RCM). This downscaled output consists of multiple climatic variables (precipitation, temperature, wind speed, dew point temperature, and surface air pressure) for a 10 km grid spacing at three-hour intervals. The modeling products were evaluated and calibrated using a bias-correction approach. The ERA-interim forced WRF (ERA-WRF) produced reasonable climatic variables as a result, yielding a more closely correlated temperature field than precipitation field when long-term monthly climatology was compared with its forcing and observational data. A linear scaling method then further corrected the bias, based on ERA-interim monthly climatology, and bias-corrected ERA-WRF fields were applied as a reference for calibration of both the historical and the projected CESM forced WRF (CESM-WRF) products. Biases, such as, a cold temperature bias during summer and a warm temperature bias during winter as well as a wet bias for annual precipitation that CESM holds over northern Alaska persisted in CESM-WRF runs. The linear scaling of CESM-WRF eventually produced high-resolution downscaling products for the Alaskan North Slope for hydrological and ecological research, together with the calibrated ERA-WRF run, and its capability extends far beyond that. Other climatic research has been proposed, including exploration of historical and projected climatic extreme events and their possible connections to low-frequency sea-atmospheric oscillations, as well as near-surface permafrost degradation and ice regime shifts of lakes. These dynamically downscaled, bias corrected climatic datasets provide improved spatial and temporal resolution data necessary for ongoing modeling efforts in northern Alaska focused on reconstructing and projecting hydrologic changes, ecosystem processes and responses, and permafrost thermal regimes. The dynamical downscaling methods presented in this study can also be used to create more suitable model input datasets for other sub-regions of the Arctic.
Resumo:
We present AUSLEM (AUStralian Land Erodibility Model), a land erodibility modelling system that utilizes a rule-set of surficial and climatic thresholds applied through a Geographic Information System (GIs) modelling framework to predict landscape susceptibility to wind erosion. AUSLEM is distinctive in that it quantitatively assesses landscape susceptibility to wind erosion at a 5 x 5 km. spatial resolution on a monthly time-step across Australia. The system was implemented for representative wet (1984), dry (1994), and average rainfall (1997) years with corresponding low, high and moderate dust storm day frequencies. Results demonstrate that AUSLEM can identify landscape erodibility, and provide an interpretation of the physical nature and distribution of erodible landscapes in Australia. Further, results offer an assessment of the dynamic tendencies of erodibility in space and time in response to the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and seasonal synoptic scale climate variability. A comparative analysis of AUSLEM output with independent national and international wind erosion, atmospheric aerosol and dust event records indicates a high level of model competency. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to illustrate Michael Thomas's concept of civic professionalism and social trusteeship as a future alternative to the current marketing profession's code of conduct and to put this in the context of climate change and ecological sustainability as a model for firms everywhere. Design/methodology/approach – Review of the marketing profession's responsibility towards society, communities and the ecology of the planet in the twenty-first century in the light of climate change. Findings – The hypothesis for the paper emerges as: whether it is possible for Chinese firms to embrace the needs of twenty-first century global ecological sustainability in meeting their own economic requirements for development and financial prosperity. Research limitations/implications – Limited secondary research and primary research that is also limited in terms of scope. Practical implications – As we move into an era of Chinese economic supremacy, we marketers must face up to the responsibility we have towards balancing the progression of global economic development (and selling goods and services in global market systems) with our responsibility towards our cultural systems and the global ecological system (the global ecosystem), the home of all our economic wealth. Social implications – To extrapolate lessons and opportunities for firms from developing economies as they move towards global domination of world economic markets and, suggest strategies for sustainability that they can, and should, adopt. Originality/value – The paper presents a theoretical framework for a global strategy for sustainability, and provides a vision of marketing responsibility that embraces civic professionalism, social trusteeship and a strategy for sustainability.