Myanmar's Economic Relations with China: Can China Support the Myanmar Economy?

Against the background of closer diplomatic, political and security ties between Myanmar and China since 1988, their economic relations have also grown stronger throughout the 1990s and up to 2005. China is now a major supplier of consumer and capital goods to Myanmar, in particular through border trade. China also provides a large amount of economic cooperation in the areas of infrastructure, energy and state-owned economic enterprises. Nevertheless, Myanmar’s trade with China has failed to have a substantial impact on its broad-based economic and industrial development. China’s economic cooperation apparently supports the present regime, but its effects on the whole economy will be limited with an unfavorable macroeconomic environment and distorted incentives structure. As a conclusion, strengthened economic ties with China will be instrumental in regime survival, but will not be a powerful force affecting the process of economic development in Myanmar.

The Impact of United States Sanctions on the Myanmar Garment Industry

The United States imposed trade sanctions against the military regime in Myanmar in July 2003. The import ban damaged the garment industry in particular. This industry exported nearly half of its products to the United States, and more than eighty percent of United States imports from Myanmar had been clothes. The garment industry was probably the main target of the sanctions. Nevertheless, the impact on the garment industry and its workers has not been accurately evaluated or closely examined. The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the impact of the sanctions and to further understand the present situation. This is done using several sources of information, including the author's field and questionnaire surveys. This paper also describes the process of selection and polarization underway in the garment industry, an industry that now has more severe competition fueled by the sanctions. Through such a process, the impact was inflicted disproportionately on small and medium-sized domestic firms and their workers.

Stunted and Distorted Industrialization in Myanmar

More than 15 years have passed since Myanmar embarked on its transition from a centrally planned economy to a market-oriented one. The purpose of this paper is to provide a bird-eye's view of industrial changes from the 1990s up to 2005. The industrial sector showed a preliminary development in the first half of the 1990s due to an "open door" policy and liberalization measures. However, a brief period of growth failed to effect any changes in the economic fundamentals. The industrial sector still suffers from poor power supplies, limited access to imported raw materials and machinery, exchange rate instability, limited credit, and frequent changes of government regulation. Public ownership is still high in key infrastructure sectors, and has failed to provide sufficient services to private industries. What the government must do first is to get the fundamentals right.

米国経済制裁によるミャンマー縫製産業への影響－苦しむのは誰か？－

2003年7月、米国はミャンマー製品の全面的な輸入禁止という、厳しい経済制裁を発動した。この制裁の最大の被害者は、ミャンマー縫製産業であった。制裁発動前、ミャンマーの対米輸出の８割以上は衣料品だったからである。多くの企業が倒産し、多くの労働者が職を失った。しかし、これまでその影響を包括的かつ正確に評価した調査・研究は皆無であった。本論文は現地での詳細なフィールド・ワークに基づき、経済制裁がミャンマー縫製産業に与えた影響を分析する。経済制裁で苦しむのは誰か。そして、経済制裁は所期の効果を上げているのか。これらの疑問に答える。

Trade, Foreign Investment and Myanmar's Economic Development during the Transition to an Open Economy

Throughout the 1990s and up to 2005, the adoption of an open-door policy substantially increased the volume of Myanmar's external trade. Imports grew more rapidly than exports in the 1990s owing to the release of pent-up consumer demand during the transition to a market economy. Accordingly, trade deficits expanded. Confronted by a shortage of foreign currency, the government after the late 1990s resorted to rigid controls over the private sector's trade activities. Despite this tightening of policy, Myanmar's external sector has improved since 2000 largely because of the emergence of new export commodities, namely garments and natural gas. Foreign direct investments in Myanmar significantly contributed to the exploration and development of new gas fields. As trade volume grew, Myanmar strengthened its trade relations with neighboring countries such as China, Thailand and India. Although the development of external trade and foreign investment inflows exerted a considerable impact on the Myanmar economy, the external sector has not yet begun to function as a vigorous engine for broad-based and sustainable development.

Border Industry in Myanmar: Turning the Periphery into the Center of Growth

The Myanmar economy has not been deeply integrated into East Asia’s production and distribution networks, despite its location advantages and notably abundant, reasonably well-educated, cheap labor force. Underdeveloped infrastructure, logistics in particular, and an unfavorable business and investment environment hinder it from participating in such networks in East Asia. Service link costs, for connecting production sites in Myanmar and other remote fragmented production blocks or markets, have not fallen sufficiently low to enable firms, including multi-national corporations to reduce total costs, and so the Myanmar economy has failed to attract foreign direct investments. Border industry offers a solution. The Myanmar economy can be connected to the regional and global economy through its borders with neighboring countries, Thailand in particular, which already have logistic hubs such as deep-sea ports, airports and trunk roads. This paper examines the source of competitiveness of border industry by considering an example of the garment industry located in the Myanmar-Thai border area. Based on such analysis, we recognize the prospects of border industry and propose some policy measures to promote this on Myanmar soil.

Myanmar and Japan: How Close Friends Become Estranged

Independent Myanmar and Japan had long held the strongest ties among Asian countries, and they were often known as having "special relations" or a "historically friendly relationship." Such relations were guaranteed by the sentiments and experiences of the leaders of both countries. Among others, Ne Win, former strongman throughout the socialist period (1962-1988), was educated and trained by the Japanese army officers of the Minami Kikan, leading to the birth of the Burma Independence Army (BIA). Huge official development assistance provided by the Japanese government also cemented this special relationship. However, the birth of the present military government (SLORC/SPDC) in 1988 drastically changed this favorable relationship between the two countries. When the military seized power in a coup, Japan was believed to be the only country that possessed sufficient meaningful influence on Myanmar to encourage a move toward national reconciliation between the junta and the opposition party led by Aung San Suu Kyi. In reality, Japan failed to exert such an influence due to its sour relations with the military government and reduced influence in the new international and regional political landscape. What is worse, Japan seems to be losing its say on Myanmar issues in the international political arena, as it has been wavering in limbo between the sanctionist forces, such as the United States and the European Union, and engagement forces, such as China and ASEAN.

Myanmar Sugar SMEs: History, Technology, Location and Government Policy

Small and medium enterprises (SMEs) engaged in sugar processing in Myanmar appeared in the last decade of the socialist era. An acute sugar deficit, restricted trade in white sugar, and high demand from the conventional dairy business led to the growth of sugar SMEs by appropriate blending of semi-finished products (syrup) in the fields, which were then processed in vacuum pans and centrifugals to obtain white sugar. This became a tradable commodity and sugar SMEs grew in clusters in big cities. They are family-owned businesses. However, they lack the bagasse-based power generation. In recent years, large modern sugar factories operated by private and military companies have emerged as key players. The current shortage of fuel feedstock and competition for raw materials have become driving forces that shift sugar SMEs from market-oriented to raw material-oriented locations. Internal competition among key players made sugar price highly volatile, too. Being placed on a level playing field, the whole industry should be upgraded in terms of price and quality to become export-oriented.

Smuggling and import duties in Myanmar

This paper examines the effects of import duties on smuggling in Myanmar. Following Fisman and Wei (2004), the reporting discrepancies between Myanmar’s imports records and corresponding exports recorded by trading partners are regarded as indicative of smuggling. The paper studies whether reporting discrepancies differ across trading partners as well as across time. Our main findings are first, that the hike in import duties in June 2004 helped to widen the reporting discrepancies, which suggests smuggling for tax evasion purposes and second, that reporting discrepancies differ considerably across trading partners: land borders appear to be particularly attractive venues for smugglers.

Post-1988 civil-military relations in Myanmar

This paper explores the development of civil–military relations in Myanmar since 1988. After the Tatmadaw (Myanmar Armed Forces) took over the state by means of a coup d’état in 1988, the top generals ruled the country without recourse to significant formal political institutions such as a constitution, elections and parliament. A unique authoritarian regime, where political power was predominantly under the military’s influence, lasted for more than 20 years in the country. It seemed to many observers that the military regime was highly durable and that its dictator, General Than Shwe, had no intention of altering the highly repressive character of the political system. However, a new leader, President Thein Sein, who came to power in March 2011, has decided to implement some political and economic reforms that could undermine the Tatmadaw’s dominant role in politics and the economy. This paper examines the background to this sudden political change in Myanmar, focusing on the relationship between its dictator, the military and the state. This paper’s main argument is that Than Shwe has carefully prepared the transition of 2011 as a generational change in the Tatmadaw and in state leadership. The argument is also made that the challenges created by Thein Sein can be understood as a result of his redefinition of national security and balancing of security-centralism with state-led developmentalism.

Agriculture Plus Plus : growth strategy for Myanmar agriculture

The development of agriculture is a main pillar of Myanmar’s growth strategies. It is natural for the Myanmar government to prioritize agriculture as a source of economic growth, since it accounted for 36% of GDP, employs a majority of labor force, and generates nearly 30% of exports as of 2010. Although the agricultural share in GDP and employment usually declines as an economy grows, it is not a sunset industry in Myanmar. Methods exist for increasing agriculture’s value added other than the growth of labor and land inputs. The key is to enhance three productivity measures: labor, land, and total productivity. We call this strategy "Agriculture Plus Plus."

Two-polar growth strategy in Myanmar : seeking "high" and "balanced" development

The Thein Sein government of Myanmar seeks higher and balanced economic growth. This is a challenge for the government since some economic literature identifies a trade-off between higher economic growth and better regional equality, especially for countries in the early stages of development. In this paper, we propose a two-polar growth strategy as one that includes both "high" and "balanced" growth. The first growth pole is Yangon, and the second is Mandalay. Nay Pyi Taw, the national capital, will develop as an administrative centre, not as an economic or commercial one. We also propose border development with enhanced connectivity with richer neighboring countries as a complementary strategy to the two growth poles. Effects of the two-polar growth strategy with border development are tested using a Geographical Simulation Model (GSM).

Five growth strategies for Myanmar : re-engagement with the global economy

After decades of isolation, Myanmar is now actively re-engaging with the global economy. For successful re-engagement, Myanmar needs to implement comprehensive economic reforms based on a shared vision for long-term economic development that is characterized by human-centered, high, sustainable, pro-poor, inclusive, and balanced economic growth. In this paper, we propose five growth strategies: "Agriculture Plus Plus," an export-oriented strategy, a foreign direct investment-driven strategy, a two-polar growth strategy, and a strategy to develop domestic economic corridors. These strategies are used as guides to translate these development agendas into a set of implementable policies, programs, and projects.

Myanmar's apparel industry in the new international environment : prospects and challenges

Myanmar’s apparel industry had long been denied access to Western markets due to sanctions against its military government. The birth of a "civilian" government in March 2011 improved Myanmar’s relations with the international community, and Western sanctions were largely lifted. Regained market access is expected to trigger rapid growth of Myanmar’s apparel exports. This paper examines this impact with a comparison to Vietnam’s apparel industry. The industry’s prospects are getting bright, but the business environment has recently changed drastically in Myanmar. A new challenge for Myanmar’s apparel industry is remaining globally competitive. This paper also examines advantages and disadvantages that apparel firms in Myanmar experience. Although its abundance of low-wage workers remains a source of competitiveness, Myanmar needs its government to play a more active role to build the foundation of the industry.