The two limits debates: "Limits to Growth" and climate change

In this article we compare the current debate about global warming with the earlier discourse of Limits to Growth (LtG) of the 1970's. We are especially interested in the similarities of and differences between the two cases and therefore compare the policy challenges and lessons to be drawn. While the two debates differ on important issues, they share a technocratic orientation to public policy, and susceptibility to similar pitfalls. In both debates alarming scenarios about future catastrophes play an important role. We suggest that climate change policy discourse needs to focus more closely on the social, economic, and political dimensions of climate change, as opposed to its excessive emphasis on emission reduction targets. We also argue that an excessive faith in the market mechanisms to supply global warming mitigation technologies is problematic. In this respect, we provide a reality check regarding the political implications of emission targets and timetables and suggest how policy issues can be moved forward.

A Kuhnian crisis in neo-Darwinism

Policy issues which receive large inputs of scientific and technical information are frequently marred by acrimonious controversies between contributing experts. There are few if any examples of a public policy decision being based on a firm consensus of scientific and technical experts. Such a consensus is taken for granted by the `Rational' model of decision making and its derivatives. Comparing the dynamics of conflict in policy-relevant issues with those of conflict in `pure' science, one is struck by their great similarity. In both cases we witness examples of rhetorical statements about incompetence, conflicting interpretations of data, and interdisciplinary communication problems. Noting this similarity, this thesis attempts to answer the question, `Is there a similarity of cause: do the same causes lie at the roots of conflict in policy-relevant and policy-irrelevant science?' In answering this question this thesis examines recent controversies in a generally policy-irrelevant science - evolutionary biology. Three episodes of conflict are studied: the `Neutral Allele Theory', `Punctuated Equilibrium', and `Structuralist versus Functionalist approaches to evolution'. These controversies are analysed in terms of both Kuhn's account of scientific `crises' and Collingridge and Reeve's (1986) `Overcritical Model'. Comparing its findings with those of Collingridge and Reeve, this thesis concludes that, (a) there is a Kuhnian crisis in contemporary evolution theory and, (b) that common causes do lie at the roots of conflict in policy-relevant and policy-irrelevant science. Science has an inherent tendency to degenerate into acrimonious conflict but at the same time has mechanisms which eventually resolve such conflicts. Unfortunately, when science is incorporated into the policy arena these mechanisms are prevented from operating. This thesis reinforces Collingridge and Reeve's conclusion that science is of little use to policy.

Priority evaluation in transportation policies and programmes

This work is concerned with the development of techniques for the evaluation of large-scale highway schemes with particular reference to the assessment of their costs and benefits in the context of the current transport planning (T.P.P.) process. It has been carried out in close cooperation with West Midlands County Council, although its application and results are applicable elsewhere. The background to highway evaluation and its development in recent years has been described and the emergence of a number of deficiencies in current planning practise noted. One deficiency in particular stood out, that stemming from inadequate methods of scheme generation and the research has concentrated upon improving this stage of appraisal, to ensure that subsequent stages of design, assessment and implementation are based upon a consistent and responsive foundation. Deficiencies of scheme evaluation were found to stem from inadequate development of appraisal methodologies suffering from difficulties of valuation, measurement and aggregation of the disparate variables that characterise highway evaluation. A failure to respond to local policy priorities was also noted. A 'problem' rather than 'goals' based approach to scheme generation was taken, as it represented the current and foreseeable resource allocation context more realistically. A review of techniques with potential for highway problem based scheme generation, which would work within a series of practical and theoretical constraints were assessed and that of multivariate analysis, and classical factor analysis in particular, was selected, because it offerred considerable application to the difficulties of valuation, measurement and aggregation that existed. Computer programs were written to adapt classical factor analysis to the requirements of T.P.P. highway evaluation, using it to derive a limited number of factors which described the extensive quantity of highway problem data. From this, a series of composite problem scores for 1979 were derived for a case study area of south Birmingham, based upon the factorial solutions, and used to assess highway sites in terms of local policy issues. The methodology was assessed in the light of its ability to describe highway problems in both aggregate and disaggregate terms, to guide scheme design, coordinate with current scheme evaluation methods, and in general to improve upon current appraisal. Analysis of the results was both in subjective, 'common-sense' terms and using statistical methods to assess the changes in problem definition, distribution and priorities that emerged. Overall, the technique was found to improve upon current scheme generation methods in all respects and in particular in overcoming the problems of valuation, measurement and aggregation without recourse to unsubstantiated and questionable assumptions. A number of deficiencies which remained have been outlined and a series of research priorities described which need to be reviewed in the light of current and future evaluation needs.

Technical change and work organisation

This thesis is an exploration of the social and political processes involved in the introduction of new technology to the shopfloor. Through a series of case studies of applications of microelectronics to batch manufacture, it attempts to uncover the ways in which the values and interests of managers, engineers, workers and others profoundly influence the choice and use of technology, and thus the work organisation which emerges. Previous analyses have tended to treat new technology as if it had "impacts" on work organisation - especially skills - which are inevitable in particular technical and economic circumstances. It is in opposition to this view that technical change is here treated as a matter for social choice and political negotiation, the various interested parties to the change being shown to attempt to incorporate their own interests into the technical and social organisation of work. Section one provides the relevant background to the case studies by summarising and criticising previous theoretical and empirical work in the area. The inadequacies of this work for our concerns are drawn out, and the need for detailed studies of the political aspects of technical change is justified. The case studies are presented in section two as a set of "episodes" of innovation, and section three analyses the empirical findings. The innovations are compared and contrasted in order to illustrate the social and political dynamics involved in the various stages of the innovation process. Finally some comments are made on policy issues for which the research has important implications.

Privatisation in Poland:ten years after

The purpose of this article is to compare economic discussion on privatisation, expected privatisation outcomes and actual results in Poland. First it discusses the privatisation of state enterprises in the broader context of the economic transformation programme designed and introduced at the end of 1989 and the beginning of 1990. It examines the choice of privatisation methods, the political economy of privatisation and the three major policy issues: pace of privatisation, sequence of privatisation and the authority to initiate and carry out privatisation. The final section compares privatisation blueprints and actual results. The appendix presents a detailed technical guide to the privatisation methods in Poland and a basic set of figures illustrating the outcome.

Using discrete event simulation to investigate road delivery policies to UK retailers

Retail customers provide a number of significant challenges to the efficiency and effectiveness of distribution systems. These challengers include shorter delivery windows, fluctuating volumes and a wider product mix. This paper demonstrates the use of discrete-event simulation to investigate policy issues regarding the incorporation of retail customers in a road delivery network from the spoke terminal of a hub and spoke distribution system. In particular a comparison of a mixed (retail and non-retail) delivery policy with a dedicated retail delivery run is made.

Structure of international cooperation in trade, investment and environment

This dissertation analyzes the obstacles against further cooperation in international economic relations. The first essay explains the gradual nature of trade liberalization. I show that existence of asymmetric information between governments provides a sufficient reason for gradualism to exist. Governments prefer starting small to reduce the cost of partner’s betrayal when there is sufficient degree of information asymmetry regarding the partner’s type. Learning about partner’s incentive structure enhances expectations, encouraging governments to increase their current level of cooperation. Specifically, the uninformed government’s subjective belief for the trading partner being good is improved as the partner acts cooperatively. This updated belief, in turn, lowers the subjective probability of future betrayal, enabling further progress in cooperation. The second essay analyzes the relationship between two countries facing two policy dilemmas in an environment with two way goods and capital flows. When issues are independent and countries are symmetric, signing separate agreements for tariffs (Free Trade Agreements-FTA) and for taxes (Tax Treaties-TT) provides the identical level of enforcement as signing a linked agreement. However, linkage can still improve the joint welfare by transferring the slack enforcement power in a case of asymmetric issues or countries. I report non-results in two cases where the policy issues are interconnected due to technological spillover effect of FDI. Moreover, I show that linking the agreements actually reduces enforcement when agreements are linked under a limited punishment rule and policy variables are strategic substitutes. The third essay investigates the welfare/enforcement consequences of linking trade and environmental agreements. In the standard literature, linking the agreements generate non-trivial results only when there is structural relation between the issues. I focus on institutional design of the linkage and show that even if environmental aspects of international trade are negligible linking the agreements might still have some interesting welfare implications under current GATT Rules. Specifically, when traded goods are substitutes in consumption, linking the environmental agreement with trade agreement under the Withdrawal of Equivalent Concession Rule (Article XXVIII) will reduce the enforcement. However, enforcement in environmental issue increases when the same rule is implemented in the absence of linkage.

Framing infectious diseases and U.S. public opinion

The United States has been increasingly concerned with the transnational threat posed by infectious diseases. Effective policy implementation to contain the spread of these diseases requires active engagement and support of the American public. To influence American public opinion and enlist support for related domestic and foreign policies, both domestic agencies and international organizations have framed infectious diseases as security threats, human rights disasters, economic risks, and as medical dangers. This study investigates whether American attitudes and opinions about infectious diseases are influenced by how the issue is framed. It also asks which issue frame has been most influential in shaping public opinion about global infectious diseases when people are exposed to multiple frames. The impact of media frames on public perception of infectious diseases is examined through content analysis of newspaper reports. Stories on SARS, avian flu, and HIV/AIDS were sampled from coverage in The New York Times and The Washington Post between 1999 and 2007. Surveys of public opinion on infectious diseases in the same time period were also drawn from databases like Health Poll Search and iPoll. Statistical analysis tests the relationship between media framing of diseases and changes in public opinion. Results indicate that no one frame was persuasive across all diseases. The economic frame had a significant effect on public opinion about SARS, as did the biomedical frame in the case of avian flu. Both the security and human rights frames affected opinion and increased public support for policies intended to prevent or treat HIV/AIDS. The findings also address the debate on the role and importance of domestic public opinion as a factor in domestic and foreign policy decisions of governments in an increasingly interconnected world. The public is able to make reasonable evaluations of the frames and the domestic and foreign policy issues emphasized in the frames.

Professional Growth and Performance Appraisals of School Administrators: A Contemporary Model

A sound performance appraisal process for school administrators contains key components in accordance with legislation, board policy and contractual agreements. This paper examines the performance appraisal process for administrators in one Canadian school district that may serve as a guideline for individual educators who are committed with on-going professional development.

From Bars to Textbooks: Bringing Higher Education Behind Bars

Corrections literature maintains the profound utility of postsecondary education programs in reducing recidivism rates among ex-offenders (Anders & Noblit, 2011). Notwithstanding, financial restrictions often impede the abilities of correctional administrators to offer college-level courses. Alternative avenues for postsecondary correctional education are addressed and policy issues and recommendations provided.

Variables affecting the success of older applicants for employment in a public organization: An age -cued cognitive model of administrative decision-making

The dissertation takes a multivariate approach to answer the question of how applicant age, after controlling for other variables, affects employment success in a public organization. In addition to applicant age, there are five other categories of variables examined: organization/applicant variables describing the relationship of the applicant to the organization; organization/position variables describing the target position as it relates to the organization; episodic variables such as applicant age relative to the ages of competing applicants; economic variables relating to the salary needs of older applicants; and cognitive variables that may affect the decision maker's evaluation of the applicant. ^ An exploratory phase of research employs archival data from approximately 500 decisions made in the past three years to hire or promote applicants for positions in one public health administration organization. A logit regression model is employed to examine the probability that the variables modify the effect of applicant age on employment success. A confirmatory phase of the dissertation is a controlled experiment in which hiring decision makers from the same public organization perform a simulated hiring decision exercise to evaluate hypothetical applicants of similar qualifications but of different ages. The responses of the decision makers to a series of bipolar adjective scales add support to the cognitive component of the theoretical model of the hiring decision. A final section contains information gathered from interviews with key informants. ^ Applicant age has tended to have a curvilinear relationship with employment success. For some positions, the mean age of the applicants most likely to succeed varies with the values of the five groups of moderating variables. The research contributes not only to the practice of public personnel administration, but is useful in examining larger public policy issues associated with an aging workforce. ^

Conversações políticas no youtube: junho de 2013 e circulação de sentidos nos comentários do vídeo “globo e os protestos”

This re search analyzes the talks dynamics about policy established in YouTube symbolic space. We are interested in examining the way in which the commentators of the video " Globo e os Protestos " articulated in the field intended for comments, a public space directed to the dissemination and circulation of meanings about policy issues. The video studied was published by PC Siqueira and Diego Quint eiro , during the June 2013 protests in Br azil, to direct the political understanding of the movement lived in that period. According to them, the protests had left political position and therefore the protesters should reject the coverage by TV Globo (a comunication vehicle with ideals of right) and allow the participation of political parties linked to the ideological left spectrum. This narrative generated empathy and controversy betwe en commentators, which produced in the comments, an intense argumentative process about these theses (right and left). To understand the phenomenon, we conducted an exploratory qualitative research, the main methodological procedure was a ethnomethodological discourse analysis. We seek the observation of the ways in which the commentators es tablished talks about politics in the comments space, for, thereafter , organize categories of analysis based on identified discursive recurrences. The empirical reflections are supported from discussions about the YouTube potential, while digital media com prising massive strategies and while articulating space in the engagement of individuals in political issues; also confront the aspects involved in the conversation practices that results in sociability dynamics and , especially , in conflict, on the socio - t echnical networks; and finally, we propose a reflection about the circuit actuation in which the people take ownership and realize new readings about the products received. Concluding that the use of digital media , such as YouTube, has caused significant c hanges in the forms of production and reception of symbolic products and ways in which people participate in political issues concerning life in society.

Local fiscal effects of oil and gas development in eight states

Oil and gas production in the United States has increased dramatically in the past 10 years. This growth has important implications for local governments, which often see new revenues from a variety of sources: property taxes on oil and gas property, sales taxes driven by the oil and gas workforce, allocations of state revenues from severance taxes or state and federal leases, leases on local government land, and contributions from oil and gas companies to support local services. At the same time, local governments tend to experience a range of new costs such as road damage caused by heavy industry truck traffic, increased demand for emergency services and law enforcement, and challenges with workforce retention. This report examines county and municipal fiscal effects in 14 oil- and gas-producing regions of eight states: AK, CA, KS, OH, OK, NM, UT, and WV. We find that for most local governments, oil and gas development—whether new or longstanding—has a positive effect on local public finances. However, effects can vary substantially due to a variety of local factors and policy issues. For some local governments, particularly those in rural regions experiencing large increases in development, revenues have not kept pace with rapidly increased costs and demand for services, particularly on road repair.

The Brain Drain : Myth and Reality - What it is and What Should be Done (Working Paper 13)

The brain drain debate has been marked by a considerable amount of confusion and frustration, largely because there has been relatively little hard data available, and that which exists has often been twisted into very different forms by those with competing policy agendas. The first goal of this paper is to pull together and summarize the available evidence regarding the size and nature of the outflows, thus establishing an empirical basis from which the issue can be addressed. The second goal is to address some of the major related policy issues. This begins with some general brain drain policy principles. The personal income tax cuts solution is then addressed with simulations of the effects on government revenues and the associated costs “per brain”, thus putting such discussions on a much firmer empirical footing. A number of alternative proposals are then suggested for various problem groups of brain drain workers.

El género epistolar en la prensa como visión ciudadana de la esfera pública en Colombia

A partir de un análisis temático inductivo, este artículo explora la visión ciudadana sobre la esfera pública expresada en las cartas de los lectores de los diarios El Tiempo y El Heraldo de Colombia. Los resultados muestran cómo la identidad colectiva de los lectores apareció en forma transversal en las cartas, para dar cuenta de una comunidad de adultos que se autodefine como “colombianos de bien”. El análisis reveló dos unidades de significado: posturas sobre la administración de lo público y antagonismos en la esfera pública, centrada en el conflicto político con las guerrillas. A través de estas se pudieron hacer visibles los llamamientos vívidos de los lectores al gobierno, funcionarios públicos, actores al margen de la ley y a sus compatriotas, para movilizarse para exigir cambios sociales largamente esperados.