Development of a model based on Bayesian networks to estimate the probability of sheep lice presence at shearing

This paper describes the development of a model, based on Bayesian networks, to estimate the likelihood that sheep flocks are infested with lice at shearing and to assist farm managers or advisers to assess whether or not to apply a lousicide treatment. The risk of lice comes from three main sources: (i) lice may have been present at the previous shearing and not eradicated; (ii) lice may have been introduced with purchased sheep; and (iii) lice may have entered with strays. A Bayesian network is used to assess the probability of each of these events independently and combine them for an overall assessment. Rubbing is a common indicator of lice but there are other causes too. If rubbing has been observed, an additional Bayesian network is used to assess the probability that lice are the cause. The presence or absence of rubbing and its possible cause are combined with these networks to improve the overall risk assessment.

A Bayesian latent class safety performance function for identifying motor vehicle crash blackspots

The current state of the practice in Blackspot Identification (BSI) utilizes safety performance functions based on total crash counts to identify transport system sites with potentially high crash risk. This paper postulates that total crash count variation over a transport network is a result of multiple distinct crash generating processes including geometric characteristics of the road, spatial features of the surrounding environment, and driver behaviour factors. However, these multiple sources are ignored in current modelling methodologies in both trying to explain or predict crash frequencies across sites. Instead, current practice employs models that imply that a single underlying crash generating process exists. The model mis-specification may lead to correlating crashes with the incorrect sources of contributing factors (e.g. concluding a crash is predominately caused by a geometric feature when it is a behavioural issue), which may ultimately lead to inefficient use of public funds and misidentification of true blackspots. This study aims to propose a latent class model consistent with a multiple crash process theory, and to investigate the influence this model has on correctly identifying crash blackspots. We first present the theoretical and corresponding methodological approach in which a Bayesian Latent Class (BLC) model is estimated assuming that crashes arise from two distinct risk generating processes including engineering and unobserved spatial factors. The Bayesian model is used to incorporate prior information about the contribution of each underlying process to the total crash count. The methodology is applied to the state-controlled roads in Queensland, Australia and the results are compared to an Empirical Bayesian Negative Binomial (EB-NB) model. A comparison of goodness of fit measures illustrates significantly improved performance of the proposed model compared to the NB model. The detection of blackspots was also improved when compared to the EB-NB model. In addition, modelling crashes as the result of two fundamentally separate underlying processes reveals more detailed information about unobserved crash causes.

Bayesian statistical analysis of bacterial diversity

Bacteria play an important role in many ecological systems. The molecular characterization of bacteria using either cultivation-dependent or cultivation-independent methods reveals the large scale of bacterial diversity in natural communities, and the vastness of subpopulations within a species or genus. Understanding how bacterial diversity varies across different environments and also within populations should provide insights into many important questions of bacterial evolution and population dynamics. This thesis presents novel statistical methods for analyzing bacterial diversity using widely employed molecular fingerprinting techniques. The first objective of this thesis was to develop Bayesian clustering models to identify bacterial population structures. Bacterial isolates were identified using multilous sequence typing (MLST), and Bayesian clustering models were used to explore the evolutionary relationships among isolates. Our method involves the inference of genetic population structures via an unsupervised clustering framework where the dependence between loci is represented using graphical models. The population dynamics that generate such a population stratification were investigated using a stochastic model, in which homologous recombination between subpopulations can be quantified within a gene flow network. The second part of the thesis focuses on cluster analysis of community compositional data produced by two different cultivation-independent analyses: terminal restriction fragment length polymorphism (T-RFLP) analysis, and fatty acid methyl ester (FAME) analysis. The cluster analysis aims to group bacterial communities that are similar in composition, which is an important step for understanding the overall influences of environmental and ecological perturbations on bacterial diversity. A common feature of T-RFLP and FAME data is zero-inflation, which indicates that the observation of a zero value is much more frequent than would be expected, for example, from a Poisson distribution in the discrete case, or a Gaussian distribution in the continuous case. We provided two strategies for modeling zero-inflation in the clustering framework, which were validated by both synthetic and empirical complex data sets. We show in the thesis that our model that takes into account dependencies between loci in MLST data can produce better clustering results than those methods which assume independent loci. Furthermore, computer algorithms that are efficient in analyzing large scale data were adopted for meeting the increasing computational need. Our method that detects homologous recombination in subpopulations may provide a theoretical criterion for defining bacterial species. The clustering of bacterial community data include T-RFLP and FAME provides an initial effort for discovering the evolutionary dynamics that structure and maintain bacterial diversity in the natural environment.

Broadcast in Ad hoc Wireless Networks with Selfish Nodes: A Bayesian Incentive Compatibility Approach

We consider the incentive compatible broadcast (ICB) problem in ad hoc wireless networks with selfish nodes. We design a Bayesian incentive compatible Broadcast (BIC-B) protocol to address this problem. VCG mechanism based schemes have been popularly used in the literature to design dominant strategy incentive compatible (DSIC) protocols for ad hoe wireless networks. VCG based mechanisms have two critical limitations: (i) the network is required to he bi-connected, (ii) the resulting protocol is not budget balanced. Our proposed BIC-B protocol overcomes these difficulties. We also prove the optimality of the proposed scheme.

Communicative and Anticipatory Decision-making Supported by Bayesian Networks

The purpose of this research is to draw up a clear construction of an anticipatory communicative decision-making process and a successful implementation of a Bayesian application that can be used as an anticipatory communicative decision-making support system. This study is a decision-oriented and constructive research project, and it includes examples of simulated situations. As a basis for further methodological discussion about different approaches to management research, in this research, a decision-oriented approach is used, which is based on mathematics and logic, and it is intended to develop problem solving methods. The approach is theoretical and characteristic of normative management science research. Also, the approach of this study is constructive. An essential part of the constructive approach is to tie the problem to its solution with theoretical knowledge. Firstly, the basic definitions and behaviours of an anticipatory management and managerial communication are provided. These descriptions include discussions of the research environment and formed management processes. These issues define and explain the background to further research. Secondly, it is processed to managerial communication and anticipatory decision-making based on preparation, problem solution, and solution search, which are also related to risk management analysis. After that, a solution to the decision-making support application is formed, using four different Bayesian methods, as follows: the Bayesian network, the influence diagram, the qualitative probabilistic network, and the time critical dynamic network. The purpose of the discussion is not to discuss different theories but to explain the theories which are being implemented. Finally, an application of Bayesian networks to the research problem is presented. The usefulness of the prepared model in examining a problem and the represented results of research is shown. The theoretical contribution includes definitions and a model of anticipatory decision-making. The main theoretical contribution of this study has been to develop a process for anticipatory decision-making that includes management with communication, problem-solving, and the improvement of knowledge. The practical contribution includes a Bayesian Decision Support Model, which is based on Bayesian influenced diagrams. The main contributions of this research are two developed processes, one for anticipatory decision-making, and the other to produce a model of a Bayesian network for anticipatory decision-making. In summary, this research contributes to decision-making support by being one of the few publicly available academic descriptions of the anticipatory decision support system, by representing a Bayesian model that is grounded on firm theoretical discussion, by publishing algorithms suitable for decision-making support, and by defining the idea of anticipatory decision-making for a parallel version. Finally, according to the results of research, an analysis of anticipatory management for planned decision-making is presented, which is based on observation of environment, analysis of weak signals, and alternatives to creative problem solving and communication.

An auction algorithm for procuring wireless channel in a heterogenous wireless network

In this paper, we develop a novel auction algorithm for procuring wireless channel by a wireless node in a heterogeneous wireless network. We assume that the service providers of the heterogeneous wireless network are selfish and non-cooperative in the sense that they are only interested in maximizing their own utilities. The wireless user needs to procure wireless channels to execute multiple tasks. To solve the problem of the wireless user, we propose a reverse optimal (REVOPT) auction and derive an expression for the expected payment by the wireless user. The proposed auction mechanism REVOPT satisfies important game theoretic properties such as Bayesian incentive compatibility and individual rationality.

Hydrologic drought prediction under climate change: Uncertainty modeling with Dempster-Shafer and Bayesian approaches

Representation and quantification of uncertainty in climate change impact studies are a difficult task. Several sources of uncertainty arise in studies of hydrologic impacts of climate change, such as those due to choice of general circulation models (GCMs), scenarios and downscaling methods. Recently, much work has focused on uncertainty quantification and modeling in regional climate change impacts. In this paper, an uncertainty modeling framework is evaluated, which uses a generalized uncertainty measure to combine GCM, scenario and downscaling uncertainties. The Dempster-Shafer (D-S) evidence theory is used for representing and combining uncertainty from various sources. A significant advantage of the D-S framework over the traditional probabilistic approach is that it allows for the allocation of a probability mass to sets or intervals, and can hence handle both aleatory or stochastic uncertainty, and epistemic or subjective uncertainty. This paper shows how the D-S theory can be used to represent beliefs in some hypotheses such as hydrologic drought or wet conditions, describe uncertainty and ignorance in the system, and give a quantitative measurement of belief and plausibility in results. The D-S approach has been used in this work for information synthesis using various evidence combination rules having different conflict modeling approaches. A case study is presented for hydrologic drought prediction using downscaled streamflow in the Mahanadi River at Hirakud in Orissa, India. Projections of n most likely monsoon streamflow sequences are obtained from a conditional random field (CRF) downscaling model, using an ensemble of three GCMs for three scenarios, which are converted to monsoon standardized streamflow index (SSFI-4) series. This range is used to specify the basic probability assignment (bpa) for a Dempster-Shafer structure, which represents uncertainty associated with each of the SSFI-4 classifications. These uncertainties are then combined across GCMs and scenarios using various evidence combination rules given by the D-S theory. A Bayesian approach is also presented for this case study, which models the uncertainty in projected frequencies of SSFI-4 classifications by deriving a posterior distribution for the frequency of each classification, using an ensemble of GCMs and scenarios. Results from the D-S and Bayesian approaches are compared, and relative merits of each approach are discussed. Both approaches show an increasing probability of extreme, severe and moderate droughts and decreasing probability of normal and wet conditions in Orissa as a result of climate change. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Discriminative learning of Bayesian networks via factorized conditional log-likelihood

We propose an efficient and parameter-free scoring criterion, the factorized conditional log-likelihood (ˆfCLL), for learning Bayesian network classifiers. The proposed score is an approximation of the conditional log-likelihood criterion. The approximation is devised in order to guarantee decomposability over the network structure, as well as efficient estimation of the optimal parameters, achieving the same time and space complexity as the traditional log-likelihood scoring criterion. The resulting criterion has an information-theoretic interpretation based on interaction information, which exhibits its discriminative nature. To evaluate the performance of the proposed criterion, we present an empirical comparison with state-of-the-art classifiers. Results on a large suite of benchmark data sets from the UCI repository show that ˆfCLL-trained classifiers achieve at least as good accuracy as the best compared classifiers, using significantly less computational resources.

Algorithms for Exact Structure Discovery in Bayesian Networks

Bayesian networks are compact, flexible, and interpretable representations of a joint distribution. When the network structure is unknown but there are observational data at hand, one can try to learn the network structure. This is called structure discovery. This thesis contributes to two areas of structure discovery in Bayesian networks: space--time tradeoffs and learning ancestor relations. The fastest exact algorithms for structure discovery in Bayesian networks are based on dynamic programming and use excessive amounts of space. Motivated by the space usage, several schemes for trading space against time are presented. These schemes are presented in a general setting for a class of computational problems called permutation problems; structure discovery in Bayesian networks is seen as a challenging variant of the permutation problems. The main contribution in the area of the space--time tradeoffs is the partial order approach, in which the standard dynamic programming algorithm is extended to run over partial orders. In particular, a certain family of partial orders called parallel bucket orders is considered. A partial order scheme that provably yields an optimal space--time tradeoff within parallel bucket orders is presented. Also practical issues concerning parallel bucket orders are discussed. Learning ancestor relations, that is, directed paths between nodes, is motivated by the need for robust summaries of the network structures when there are unobserved nodes at work. Ancestor relations are nonmodular features and hence learning them is more difficult than modular features. A dynamic programming algorithm is presented for computing posterior probabilities of ancestor relations exactly. Empirical tests suggest that ancestor relations can be learned from observational data almost as accurately as arcs even in the presence of unobserved nodes.

Distributed Source Coding for Sensor Data Model and Estimation of Cluster Head Errors Using Bayesian and K-Near Neighborhood Classifiers in Deployment of Dense Wireless Sensor Networks

The lifetime calculation of large dense sensor networks with fixed energy resources and the remaining residual energy have shown that for a constant energy resource in a sensor network the fault rate at the cluster head is network size invariant when using the network layer with no MAC losses.Even after increasing the battery capacities in the nodes the total lifetime does not increase after a max limit of 8 times. As this is a serious limitation lots of research has been done at the MAC layer which allows to adapt to the specific connectivity, traffic and channel polling needs for sensor networks. There have been lots of MAC protocols which allow to control the channel polling of new radios which are available to sensor nodes to communicate. This further reduces the communication overhead by idling and sleep scheduling thus extending the lifetime of the monitoring application. We address the two issues which effects the distributed characteristics and performance of connected MAC nodes. (1) To determine the theoretical minimum rate based on joint coding for a correlated data source at the singlehop, (2a) to estimate cluster head errors using Bayesian rule for routing using persistence clustering when node densities are the same and stored using prior probability at the network layer, (2b) to estimate the upper bound of routing errors when using passive clustering were the node densities at the multi-hop MACS are unknown and not stored at the multi-hop nodes a priori. In this paper we evaluate many MAC based sensor network protocols and study the effects on sensor network lifetime. A renewable energy MAC routing protocol is designed when the probabilities of active nodes are not known a priori. From theoretical derivations we show that for a Bayesian rule with known class densities of omega1, omega2 with expected error P* is bounded by max error rate of P=2P* for single-hop. We study the effects of energy losses using cross-layer simulation of - large sensor network MACS setup, the error rate which effect finding sufficient node densities to have reliable multi-hop communications due to unknown node densities. The simulation results show that even though the lifetime is comparable the expected Bayesian posterior probability error bound is close or higher than Pges2P*.

Broadcast in Adhoc Wireless Networks with Selfish Nodes: A Bayesian Incentive Compatibility Approach

We consider the incentive compatible broadcast (ICB) problem in ad hoc wireless networks with selfish nodes. We design a Bayesian incentive compatible broadcast (BIC-B) protocol to address this problem. VCG mechanism based schemes have been popularly used in the literature to design dominant strategy incentive compatible (DSIC) protocols for ad hoc wireless networks. VCG based mechanisms have two critical limitations: (i) the network is required to be bi-connected, (ii) the resulting protocol is not budget balanced. Our proposed BIC-B protocol overcomes these difficulties. We also prove the optimality of the proposed scheme.

Synconset Waves and Chains: Spiking Onsets in Synchronous Populations Predict and Are Predicted by Network Structure

Synfire waves are propagating spike packets in synfire chains, which are feedforward chains embedded in random networks. Although synfire waves have proved to be effective quantification for network activity with clear relations to network structure, their utilities are largely limited to feedforward networks with low background activity. To overcome these shortcomings, we describe a novel generalisation of synfire waves, and define `synconset wave' as a cascade of first spikes within a synchronisation event. Synconset waves would occur in `synconset chains', which are feedforward chains embedded in possibly heavily recurrent networks with heavy background activity. We probed the utility of synconset waves using simulation of single compartment neuron network models with biophysically realistic conductances, and demonstrated that the spread of synconset waves directly follows from the network connectivity matrix and is modulated by top-down inputs and the resultant oscillations. Such synconset profiles lend intuitive insights into network organisation in terms of connection probabilities between various network regions rather than an adjacency matrix. To test this intuition, we develop a Bayesian likelihood function that quantifies the probability that an observed synfire wave was caused by a given network. Further, we demonstrate it's utility in the inverse problem of identifying the network that caused a given synfire wave. This method was effective even in highly subsampled networks where only a small subset of neurons were accessible, thus showing it's utility in experimental estimation of connectomes in real neuronal-networks. Together, we propose synconset chains/waves as an effective framework for understanding the impact of network structure on function, and as a step towards developing physiology-driven network identification methods. Finally, as synconset chains extend the utilities of synfire chains to arbitrary networks, we suggest utilities of our framework to several aspects of network physiology including cell assemblies, population codes, and oscillatory synchrony.

Value of information in product recovery decisions: A Bayesian approach

There is a widespread recognition of the need for better information sharing and provision to improve the viability of end-of-life (EOL) product recovery operations. The emergence of automated data capture and sharing technologies such as RFID, sensors and networked databases has enhanced the ability to make product information; available to recoverers, which will help them make better decisions regarding the choice of recovery option for EOL products. However, these technologies come with a cost attached to it, and hence the question 'what is its value?' is critical. This paper presents a probabilistic approach to model product recovery decisions and extends the concept of Bayes' factor for quantifying the impact of product information on the effectiveness of these decisions. Further, we provide a quantitative examination of the factors that influence the value of product information, this value depends on three factors: (i) penalties for Type I and Type II errors of judgement regarding product quality; (ii) prevalent uncertainty regarding product quality and (iii) the strength of the information to support/contradict the belief. Furthermore, we show that information is not valuable under all circumstances and derive conditions for achieving a positive value of information. © 2010 Taylor & Francis.