Excess capital and bank behavior : evidence from Indonesia

The Indonesian banking sector has been restructured since Asian financial crisis and restored to soundness. The capital adequacy ratio (CAR) returned to a sound level; however, the average excess capital has become too high, while credit disbursement has remained low. This paper investigates the determinants of excess capital among Indonesian banks and its effects on credit growth during the 2000s. The results indicate that the determinants of excess capital vary widely depending on bank type. Return on equity (ROE) affects excess capital negatively among domestic banks, and the effect of non-performing loans is mixed, differing for various bank types. Excess capital affects credit growth positively, except among foreign banks.

Implementación de un cambio de estrategia en un banco español para su optimización y ventaja competitiva

En la situación actual, en la que la inestabilidad económica es un hecho, se plantea analizar y estudiar el estado de las entidades financieras. El estudio a realizar se circunscribe únicamente al ámbito nacional, debido a la idiosincrasia de los bancos. Para conocer el entorno en el que se mueven los bancos nacionales, se analiza en primer lugar el estado financiero de los países más relevantes a nivel internacional, para posteriormente estudiar la situación económica de España, especialmente en el sector bancario. Se pretende establecer el marco en el que se mueve dicho sector, para poder tener toda la información necesaria para entender no sólo los problemas que afectan a estas entidades, sino también para ver que es necesario un cambio para que estas organizaciones puedan evolucionar y desarrollarse. Una vez detallado el entorno en el que se tienen que mover los bancos, se detallan los principales motivos por los que han perdido credibilidad de cara a los clientes y a los organismos internacionales responsables de velar por la correcta ejecución de las operaciones bancarias, conforme a unas normativas ya establecidas. Se han mencionado algunos ejemplos significativos y con gran repercusión social. No se entra a detallar cada uno de los casos, el objetivo es mostrar que este tipo de actuaciones no sólo perjudican a la propia entidad sino que repercuten en todo el ámbito financiero nacional. Al profundizar en los motivos que han llevado a los bancos a la situación que sufren actualmente, se ve que mantener el mismo método de trabajo no es sostenible a largo plazo; por ello, se plantea un cambio en su estrategia, en concreto un cambio en el modelo de cultura organizacional. Se toma como modelo el empleado en otras empresas, principalmente orientales, por su carácter innovador y por estar más alineadas con las nuevas necesidades y requerimientos de los clientes actualmente. La evolución de las tecnologías ha supuesto un cambio disruptivo en la forma de hacer negocios: algo que debe adoptar la banca para poder, no sólo competir, sino sobrevivir. El cambio de modelo estratégico ha de iniciarse en la Alta Dirección, para propagarse posteriormente al resto de la organización. Al tratarse de un cambio de gran envergadura, su completa implantación llevará años, por lo que es imprescindible realizar un seguimiento y una revisión continua del mismo. Finalmente se comentan las ventajas que el banco conseguirá con este cambio. Éstas abarcan la recuperación de la confianza de los clientes, pasando por una modernización (necesaria en cualquier caso), para completarse con un incremento de los beneficios económicos, que no deja de ser uno de los motores de los bancos. ---ABSTRACT---Nowadays, the economic instability is a fact, so in this project we have studied and analysed the status of financial institutions. This study is limited to the national environment, due to the idiosyncrasy of the banks. In order to understand the environment in which national banks moved, firstly it has been analysed the financial status of the most relevant countries internationally, to study later the economic status of Spain, especially in the banking sector. The aim is to establish a framework in which the sector moves, to have at the end all the necessary information to understand, not only the issues that are affecting to this entities, but also to realize that a change is necessary for their progress and develop. Once detailed the environment in which the banks have to move, it is detailed the main reasons that have lead them to lose credibility with customers, and with international agencies responsible for ensuring the correct execution of banking operations. These operations must be done under established regulations. It has been mentioned some significant examples of mistakes that have had a social impact. It has not been detailed each outrageous, the objective is to show that this kind of actions not only hurt the institution itself, but also affect the entire national financial sector. Into the reasons that have led banks to the actual situation, it can be seen that keeping the same method of working is not sustainable in the long term; therefore, a change of strategy is proposed, more specifically a change in the model of organizational culture. The reference model has been one used by other companies, mainly eastern companies, due to its innovation and its capability to be aligned with the changing needs and requirements of customers nowadays. The evolution of technology has been a disruptive change in the way of doing business: something to be taken by the bank, not only to compete but also to survive. The strategic model change must start with the compromise of CEO’s, and later must be spread to the rest of the organization. It is a major change, so its full implementation will take years, so, it is basic to carry out continuous reviews. Finally, the advantages that the bank will get with this change are discussed. These advantages include recovery of customer confidence, through modernization (something needed anyway), to be enriched by an increase in economic benefits, the engine of the banks.

GESTÃO DO CONHECIMENTO: UM ESTUDO SOBRE A RELAÇÃO ENTRE A LIDERANÇA TRANSFORMACIONAL, A CONVERSÃO DO CONHECIMENTO E A EFICÁCIA ORGANIZACIONAL

Este estudo teve como objetivo principal analisar a relação entre a Liderança Transformacional, a Conversão do Conhecimento e a Eficácia Organizacional. Foram considerados como pressupostos teóricos conceitos consolidados sobre os temas desta relação, além de recentes pesquisas já realizadas em outros países e contextos organizacionais. Com base nisto identificou-se potencial estudo de um modelo que relacionasse estes três conceitos. Para tal considera-se que as organizações que buscam atingir Vantagem Competitiva e incorporam a Knowledge-Based View possam conquistar diferenciação frente a seus concorrentes. Nesse contexto o conhecimento ganha maior destaque e papel protagonista nestas organizações. Dessa forma criar conhecimento através de seus colaboradores, passa a ser um dos desafios dessas organizações ao passo que sugere melhoria de seus indicadores Econômicos, Sociais, Sistêmicos e Políticos, o que se define por Eficácia Organizacional. Portanto os modos de conversão do conhecimento nas organizações, demonstram relevância, uma vez que se cria e se converte conhecimentos através da interação entre o conhecimento existente de seus colaboradores. Essa conversão do conhecimento ou modelo SECI possui quatro modos que são a Socialização, Externalização, Combinação e Internalização. Nessa perspectiva a liderança nas organizações apresenta-se como um elemento capaz de influenciar seus colaboradores, propiciando maior dinâmica ao modelo SECI de conversão do conhecimento. Se identifica então na liderança do tipo Transformacional, características que possam influenciar colaboradores e entende-se que esta relação entre a Liderança Transformacional e a Conversão do Conhecimento possa ter influência positiva nos indicadores da Eficácia Organizacional. Dessa forma esta pesquisa buscou analisar um modelo que explorasse essa relação entre a liderança do tipo Transformacional, a Conversão do Conhecimento (SECI) e a Eficácia Organizacional. Esta pesquisa teve o caráter quantitativo com coleta de dados através do método survey, obtendo um total de 230 respondentes válidos de diferentes organizações. O instrumento de coleta de dados foi composto por afirmativas relativas ao modelo de relação pesquisado com um total de 44 itens. O perfil de respondentes concentrou-se entre 30 e 39 anos de idade, com a predominância de organizações privadas e de departamentos de TI/Telecom, Docência e Recursos Humanos respectivamente. O tratamento dos dados foi através da Análise Fatorial Exploratória e Modelagem de Equações Estruturais via Partial Least Square Path Modeling (PLS-PM). Como resultado da análise desta pesquisa, as hipóteses puderam ser confirmadas, concluindo que a Liderança Transformacional apresenta influência positiva nos modos de Conversão do Conhecimento e que; a Conversão do Conhecimento influencia positivamente na Eficácia Organizacional. Ainda, concluiu-se que a percepção entre os respondentes não apresenta resultado diferente sobre o modelo desta pesquisa entre quem possui ou não função de liderança.

Microcredit Financing Organizations: Global Players Empowering Women and Alleviating Poverty Worldwide

World poverty is a global issue and a development issue. Poverty reduction and women's empowerment are deeply connected to regional stability and long lasting peace. Nations will continue to be plagued by poverty, and top-down government agency aid programs to date have been unsuccessful. Encouraging news resides in innovative microfinance initiatives that alleviate poverty and impact millions of impoverished people around the globe. Microfinance organizations provide small loans, primarily to women otherwise excluded from the formal banking sector, for entrepreneurial endeavors. Myriad social, educational, and health programs accompany microfinance loan services. It is a powerful poverty-fighting tool with socioeconomic benefits. Evidence suggests that while imperfect, microfinance goals and successes are inspiring given the paucity of realistic alternatives in today's global development arena.

An algorithm to hide information in binary images

The objective of this paper is to develop a method to hide information inside a binary image. An algorithm to embed data in scanned text or figures is proposed, based on the detection of suitable pixels, which verify some conditions in order to be not detected. In broad terms, the algorithm locates those pixels placed at the contours of the figures or in those areas where some scattering of the two colors can be found. The hidden information is independent from the values of the pixels where this information is embedded. Notice that, depending on the sequence of bits to be hidden, around half of the used pixels to keep bits of data will not be modified. The other basic characteristic of the proposed scheme is that it is necessary to take into consideration the bits that are modified, in order to perform the recovering process of the information, which consists on recovering the sequence of bits placed in the proper positions. An application to banking sector is proposed for hidding some information in signatures.

Capital Controls in Cyprus: Shooting at a moving target. CEPS Commentary, 15 June 2013

In her examination of the capital controls that have been in place in Cyprus since March 27th, Leonor Coutinho asks how soon can they be lifted and whether the recapitalisation plans will be sufficiently convincing to allow the Cypriot banking sector to regain the trust of the public.

What's wrong with Europe's banks? CEPS Commentary, 12 July 2013

In offering his diagnosis of Europe’s ailing banking sector, Daniel Gros finds that it is undercapitalised, too large and populated by too many players without a viable long-term business model. In his view, it is the combination of the last two factors that is the most worrying and he warns that any major problem could overburden public budgets, making the sector, with total liabilities over 250% of GDP, possibly “too big to be saved”.

Russian sanctions against Moldova. Minor effects, major potential. OSW COMMENTARY No. 152, 2014-11-06

Russia has been Moldova’s main trade partner and Russian capital has accounted for a large part of its foreign investments, dominating in the energy and the banking sectors. Moreover, Russia has been a key job market for Moldovan expatriate workers. In the economic sphere, this is making Moldova unilaterally dependent on Russia. Moscow has been attempting to exploit this situation to put pressure on the authorities in Chișinău for quite some time. In recent months Russia has increasingly used instruments for exerting economic pressure on Moldova, as a means of responding to the current authorities’ pro-Western policy. A key element of this policy was Moldova’s signing on 27 June 2014 of the Association Agreement with the EU (which came into force on 1 September 2014). Over the last year, Russia has implemented a number of import restrictions on Moldovan goods. The aim of the Russian actions is to fuel social disappointment, and ultimately – to prevent the pro-European coalition currently in power from winning the parliamentary elections scheduled for 30 November 2014. Another aim might be to convince the Moldovan authorities to suspend the implementation of the Association Agreement – a plan openly put forward by Vladimir Putin during the CIS summit in Minsk on 10 October 2014. So far, however, the Russian economic sanctions have failed to produce the expected results. Support for the pro-European parties has been high, and there is little chance that the pro-Russian groups might achieve a parliamentary majority. It is not inconceivable, then, that in the upcoming months Moscow might decide to resort to other, more potent instruments of economic pressure such as speculation on the financial market, carried out as part of its de facto control over the banking sector. Another possibility is further tightening of trade restrictions, issuing expatriate workers from Russia or using Moldova’s dependence on Russian energy.

Strengthening the euro area. CHALLENGE EUROPE Issue 22. Challenges and new beginnings: Priorities for the EU's new leadership, September 2014

Since 2007, a series of acute crises have threatened the very existence of the euro area. The financial crisis which spilled into the currency union in 2007 was followed by an unexpectedly strong downturn of the real economy. As of 2010, the euro area was confronted with a severe sovereign debt and banking crisis. Despite these troublesome developments, the euro area has proven to have a considerable degree of resilience. In each phase, governance weaknesses were revealed – and national governments together with the EU institutions have designed an impressive series of policy responses in crisis management and institutional innovation. The euro area today is completed by a banking union with a Single Supervisory and a Single Resolution Mechanism. National budgetary and economic policies are more closely overseen and coordinated. With the European Stability Mechanism, the euro area now has a permanent tool in place to manage sovereign liquidity crises and instabilities in the banking sector. Most importantly, the euro area's only true federal institution, the European Central Bank (ECB), has become its most effective crisis manager: with the announcement of its Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT) programme, the ECB finally managed to calm the self fulfilling crisis in 2012. Meanwhile, the announcement of credit easing and quasi-quantitative easing in September 2014 is a move towards reducing financial fragmentation and countering deflation. The euro area in 2014 is hence a lot different from the one in 2007. And yet, further challenges need to be overcome. Prevailing stagnation, fragmentation and problems of legitimacy require a rethink of policies and further governance reform.

The ECB’s QE: Time to break the doom loop between banks and their governments. CEPS Policy Brief No. 328, March 2015

The recent crises have shown that the eurozone countries’ government debt is not immune to default. Applying a large-exposure requirement also to eurozone government debt would be a logical measure towards breaking the bank-government doom loop, given the low probability and high loss-given government default. But what would be the impact of the application of the large-exposure requirement on the banking sector as well as on government funding? This CEPS Policy Brief presents the results of a simulation exercise performed for 109 systemic banks in the eurozone, showing that their eurozone government debt portfolios would have to decrease by 3.2% or €63 billion, if a 50% of own-funds cap would be applied on large exposures. The eurozone central banks’ demand for sovereign bonds under the extended asset purchase programme further creates momentum to start gradually implementing the restriction.

Living (dangerously) without a fiscal union. Bruegel Working Paper 2015/03

The euro area’s political contract requires member nations to rely principally on their own resources when confronted with severe economic distress. Since monetary policy is the same for all, national fiscal austerity is the default response to counter national fiscal stress. Moreover, the monetary policy was itself stodgy in countering the crisis, and banking-sector problems were allowed to fester. And it was considered inappropriate to impose losses on private sector creditors. Thus, the nature of the incomplete monetary union and the self-imposed taboos led deep and persistent fiscal austerity to become the norm. As a consequence, growth was hurt, which undermined the primary objective of lowering the debt burden. To prevent a meltdown, distressed nations were given official loans to repay private creditors. But the stress and instability continued and soon it became necessary to ease the repayment terms on official loans. When even that proved insufficient, the German-inspired fiscal austerity was combined with the deep pockets of the European Central Bank. The ECB’s safety net for insolvent or near-insolvent banks and sovereigns, in effect, substituted for the absent fiscal union and drew the central bank into the political process.

The Vulnerability of Europe's Small and Medium-Sized Banks. Bruegel Working Paper 2015/07, 16 July 2015

We study the vulnerability of 130 banks directly supervised by the European Central Bank’s Single Supervisory Mechanism. Illustrative stress tests using banks’ balance sheet data reveal that significant stress prevails in the euro area’s smaller and medium-sized banks, many of them located in southern Europe. The banks we identify as stressed also have performed substantially worse on the stock market. The vulnerable banks are typically hobbled by non-performing loans to European businesses. Strengthening the banking system, therefore, is important to achieve sustainable recovery because it will revitalise credit to the healthier segments of the economy. But instead of emphasising bank recapitalisation, as in past years, we believe the task is to shrink the banking sector to a healthier core.

Fine-tuning the use of bail-in to promote a stronger EU financial system. CEPS Special Report No. 136/April 2016

This paper discusses the application of the new European rules for burden-sharing and bail-in in the banking sector, in view of their ability to accommodate broader policy goals of aggregate financial stability. It finds that the Treaty principles and the new discipline of state aid and the restructuring of banks provide a solid framework for combating moral hazard and removing incentives that encourage excessive risk-taking by bankers. However, the application of the new rules may have become excessively attentive to the case-by-case evaluation of individual institutions, while perhaps losing sight of the aggregate policy needs of the banking system. Indeed, in this first phase of the banking union, while large segments of the EU banking sector still require a substantial restructuring and recapitalisation, the market may not be able to provide all the needed resources in the current environment of depressed profitability and low growth. Thus, a systemic market failure may be making the problem impossible to fix without resorting to temporary public support. But the risk of large write-offs of capital instruments due to burden-sharing and bail-in may represent an insurmountable obstacle to such public support as it may set in motion an investors’ flight. The paper concludes by showing that existing rules do contain the flexibility required to accommodate aggregate policy requirements in the general interest, and outlines a public support scheme for the precautionary recapitalisation of solvent banks that would be compliant with EU law.

Políticas de salvamento e risco bancário em período de crise

Esta tese analisa, entre 2005 e 2013, o impacto das políticas governamentais de resgate sobre o risco do setor bancário nos países da OCDE. Primeiro, em linha com a hipótese de moral hazard, verifica-se que instituições financeiras com expectativa elevada de bailout, assumem riscos mais elevados do que as demais. Segundo, constata-se que, em períodos normais, garantias de socorro às grandes instituições distorcem a competição no setor e incrementa o risco das demais. Durante a crise, entretanto, mostra-se que elevações na expectativa de resgate dos concorrentes de uma instituição, à medida que representa uma redução em sua chance de eventual socorro governamental, diminuem sua tomada de riscos. Adicionalmente, em período de crise também é evidenciado que: reduções na capacidade financeira dos países estão associadas a menor assunção de riscos; em média, o aumento na tomada de riscos é maior nos países com menor spread de Credit Default Swap.

Essays on coordination problems in economics

No estudo da economia, há diversas situações em que a propensão de um indivíduo a tomar determinada ação é crescente na quantidade de outras pessoas que este indivíduo acredita que tomarão a mesma ação. Esse tipo de complementaridade estratégica geralmente leva à existência de múltiplos equilíbrios. Além disso, o resultado atingido pelas decisões decentralizadas dos agentes pode ser ineficiente, deixando espaço para intervenções de política econômica. Esta tese estuda diferentes ambientes em que a coordenação entre indivíduos é importante. O primeiro capítulo analisa como a manipulação de informação e a divulgação de informação afetam a coordenação entre investidores e o bem-estar em um modelo de corridas bancárias. No modelo, há uma autoridade reguladora que não pode se comprometer a revelar a verdadeira situação do setor bancário. O regulador observa informações idiossincráticas dos bancos (através de um stress test, por exemplo) e escolhe se revela essa informação para o público ou se divulga somente um relatório agregado sobre a saúde do sistema financeiro como um todo. O relatório agregado pode ser distorcido a um custo – um custo mais elevado significa maior credibilidade do regulador. Os investidores estão cientes dos incentivos do regulador a esconder más notícias do mercado, mas a manipulação de informação pode, ainda assim, ser efetiva. Se a credibilidade do regulador não for muito baixa, a política de divulgação de informação é estado-contingente, e existe sempre um conjunto de estados em que há manipulação de informação em equilíbrio. Se a credibilidade for suficientemente baixa, porém, o regulador opta por transparência total dos resultados banco-específicos, caso em que somente os bancos mais sólidos sobrevivem. Uma política de opacidade levaria a uma crise bancária sistêmica, independentemente do estado. O nível de credibilidade que maximiza o bem-estar agregado do ponto de vista ex ante é interior. O segundo e o terceiro capítulos estudam problemas de coordenação dinâmicos. O segundo capítulo analisa o bem-estar em um ambiente em que agentes recebem oportunidades aleatórias para migrar entre duas redes. Os resultados mostram que sempre que a rede de pior qualidade (intrínseca) prevalece, isto é eficiente. Na verdade, um planejador central estaria ainda mais inclinado a escolher a rede de pior qualidade. Em equilíbrio, pode haver mudanças ineficientes que ampliem a rede de qualidade superior. Quando indivíduos escolhem entre dois padrões ou redes com níveis de qualidade diferentes, se todos os indivíduos fizessem escolhas simultâneas, a solução eficiente seria que todos adotassem a rede de melhor qualidade. No entanto, quando há fricções e os agentes tomam decisões escalonadas, a solução eficiente difere ix do senso comum. O terceiro capítulo analisa um problema de coordenação dinâmico com decisões escalonadas em que os agentes são heterogêneos ex ante. No modelo, existe um único equilíbrio, caracterizado por thresholds que determinam as escolhas para cada tipo de agente. Apesar da heterogeneidade nos payoffs, há bastante conformidade nas ações individuais em equilíbrio. Os thresholds de diferentes tipos de agentes coincidem parcialmente contanto que exista um conjunto de crenças arbitrário que justifique esta conformidade. No entanto, as estratégias de equilíbrio de diferentes tipos nunca coincidem totalmente. Além disso, a conformidade não é ineficiente. A solução eficiente apresentaria estratégias ainda mais similares para tipos distintos em comparação com o equilíbrio decentralizado.