Treeline and climate change : analyzing and modeling patterns and shifts in the Swiss Alps

Summary: Global warming has led to an average earth surface temperature increase of about 0.7 °C in the 20th century, according to the 2007 IPCC report. In Switzerland, the temperature increase in the same period was even higher: 1.3 °C in the Northern Alps anal 1.7 °C in the Southern Alps. The impacts of this warming on ecosystems aspecially on climatically sensitive systems like the treeline ecotone -are already visible today. Alpine treeline species show increased growth rates, more establishment of young trees in forest gaps is observed in many locations and treelines are migrating upwards. With the forecasted warming, this globally visible phenomenon is expected to continue. This PhD thesis aimed to develop a set of methods and models to investigate current and future climatic treeline positions and treeline shifts in the Swiss Alps in a spatial context. The focus was therefore on: 1) the quantification of current treeline dynamics and its potential causes, 2) the evaluation and improvement of temperaturebased treeline indicators and 3) the spatial analysis and projection of past, current and future climatic treeline positions and their respective elevational shifts. The methods used involved a combination of field temperature measurements, statistical modeling and spatial modeling in a geographical information system. To determine treeline shifts and assign the respective drivers, neighborhood relationships between forest patches were analyzed using moving window algorithms. Time series regression modeling was used in the development of an air-to-soil temperature transfer model to calculate thermal treeline indicators. The indicators were then applied spatially to delineate the climatic treeline, based on interpolated temperature data. Observation of recent forest dynamics in the Swiss treeline ecotone showed that changes were mainly due to forest in-growth, but also partly to upward attitudinal shifts. The recent reduction in agricultural land-use was found to be the dominant driver of these changes. Climate-driven changes were identified only at the uppermost limits of the treeline ecotone. Seasonal mean temperature indicators were found to be the best for predicting climatic treelines. Applying dynamic seasonal delimitations and the air-to-soil temperature transfer model improved the indicators' applicability for spatial modeling. Reproducing the climatic treelines of the past 45 years revealed regionally different attitudinal shifts, the largest being located near the highest mountain mass. Modeling climatic treelines based on two IPCC climate warming scenarios predicted major shifts in treeline altitude. However, the currently-observed treeline is not expected to reach this limit easily, due to lagged reaction, possible climate feedback effects and other limiting factors. Résumé: Selon le rapport 2007 de l'IPCC, le réchauffement global a induit une augmentation de la température terrestre de 0.7 °C en moyenne au cours du 20e siècle. En Suisse, l'augmentation durant la même période a été plus importante: 1.3 °C dans les Alpes du nord et 1.7 °C dans les Alpes du sud. Les impacts de ce réchauffement sur les écosystèmes - en particuliers les systèmes sensibles comme l'écotone de la limite des arbres - sont déjà visibles aujourd'hui. Les espèces de la limite alpine des forêts ont des taux de croissance plus forts, on observe en de nombreux endroits un accroissement du nombre de jeunes arbres s'établissant dans les trouées et la limite des arbres migre vers le haut. Compte tenu du réchauffement prévu, on s'attend à ce que ce phénomène, visible globalement, persiste. Cette thèse de doctorat visait à développer un jeu de méthodes et de modèles pour étudier dans un contexte spatial la position présente et future de la limite climatique des arbres, ainsi que ses déplacements, au sein des Alpes suisses. L'étude s'est donc focalisée sur: 1) la quantification de la dynamique actuelle de la limite des arbres et ses causes potentielles, 2) l'évaluation et l'amélioration des indicateurs, basés sur la température, pour la limite des arbres et 3) l'analyse spatiale et la projection de la position climatique passée, présente et future de la limite des arbres et des déplacements altitudinaux de cette position. Les méthodes utilisées sont une combinaison de mesures de température sur le terrain, de modélisation statistique et de la modélisation spatiale à l'aide d'un système d'information géographique. Les relations de voisinage entre parcelles de forêt ont été analysées à l'aide d'algorithmes utilisant des fenêtres mobiles, afin de mesurer les déplacements de la limite des arbres et déterminer leurs causes. Un modèle de transfert de température air-sol, basé sur les modèles de régression sur séries temporelles, a été développé pour calculer des indicateurs thermiques de la limite des arbres. Les indicateurs ont ensuite été appliqués spatialement pour délimiter la limite climatique des arbres, sur la base de données de températures interpolées. L'observation de la dynamique forestière récente dans l'écotone de la limite des arbres en Suisse a montré que les changements étaient principalement dus à la fermeture des trouées, mais aussi en partie à des déplacements vers des altitudes plus élevées. Il a été montré que la récente déprise agricole était la cause principale de ces changements. Des changements dus au climat n'ont été identifiés qu'aux limites supérieures de l'écotone de la limite des arbres. Les indicateurs de température moyenne saisonnière se sont avérés le mieux convenir pour prédire la limite climatique des arbres. L'application de limites dynamiques saisonnières et du modèle de transfert de température air-sol a amélioré l'applicabilité des indicateurs pour la modélisation spatiale. La reproduction des limites climatiques des arbres durant ces 45 dernières années a mis en évidence des changements d'altitude différents selon les régions, les plus importants étant situés près du plus haut massif montagneux. La modélisation des limites climatiques des arbres d'après deux scénarios de réchauffement climatique de l'IPCC a prédit des changements majeurs de l'altitude de la limite des arbres. Toutefois, l'on ne s'attend pas à ce que la limite des arbres actuellement observée atteigne cette limite facilement, en raison du délai de réaction, d'effets rétroactifs du climat et d'autres facteurs limitants.

Primary care at Swiss universities--current state and perspective.

BACKGROUND: There is increasing evidence that a strong primary care is a cornerstone of an efficient health care system. But Switzerland is facing a shortage of primary care physicians (PCPs). This pushed the Federal Council of Switzerland to introduce a multifaceted political programme to strengthen the position of primary care, including its academic role. The aim of this paper is to provide a comprehensive overview of the situation of academic primary care at the five Swiss universities by the end of year 2012. RESULTS: Although primary care teaching activities have a long tradition at the five Swiss universities with activities starting in the beginning of the 1980ies; the academic institutes of primary care were only established in recent years (2005 - 2009). Only one of them has an established chair. Human and financial resources vary substantially. At all universities a broad variety of courses and lectures are offered, including teaching in private primary care practices with 1331 PCPs involved. Regarding research, differences among the institutes are tremendous, mainly caused by entirely different human resources and skills. CONCLUSION: So far, the activities of the existing institutes at the Swiss Universities are mainly focused on teaching. However, for a complete academic institutionalization as well as an increased acceptance and attractiveness, more research activities are needed. In addition to an adequate basic funding of research positions, competitive research grants have to be created to establish a specialty-specific research culture.

Pre-Election Positions and Voting Behaviour in Parliament: Consistency among Swiss MPs

This article examines the determinants of positional incongruence between pre-election statements and post-election behaviour in the Swiss parliament between 2003 and 2009. The question is examined at the individual MP level, which is appropriate for dispersion-of-powers systems like Switzerland. While the overall rate of political congruence reaches about 85%, a multilevel logit analysis detects the underlying factors which push or curb a candidate's propensity to change his or her mind once elected. The results show that positional changes are more likely when (1) MPs are freshmen, (2) individual voting behaviour is invisible to the public, (3) the electoral district magnitude is not small, (4) the vote is not about a party's core issue, (5) the MP belongs to a party which is located in the political centre, and (6) if the pre-election statement dissents from the majority position of the legislative party group. Of these factors, the last one is paramount.

Dynamics of a paleoecosystem reef associated with oceanic change in carbonate sedimentary regime and carbon cycling (Oxfordian, Swiss Jura)

Herein we report an analysis of an Oxfordian (Upper Jurassic) paleoreef located in the Swiss Jura Mountains. The paleoreef is located in a Middle Oxfordian transitional interval in which sedimentation switched from marl-dominated to carbonate-dominated deposits. The paleoecosystem is composed of four successive fossil communities characterized by microsolenid corals and organisms that specialized in suspension feeding. Carbon isotopes measured from echinoid spine carbonates exhibit a positive trend from similar to 1.0 parts per thousand to 2.5 parts per thousand in delta(13)C values from the base to the top of the paleoreef. Comparison of delta(13)C curves with organic matter and belemnites shows different patterns not compatible with a global variation of the carbon cycle. Similar fossil assemblages and stratigraphic sequences identical in age are found along the continental margin of the Tethys-Atlantic Ocean. This biolithostratigraphic succession corresponds to increasing delta(13)C values of marine and biogenic carbonates, to the transition from marl-dominated to carbonate-dominated deposits, and to the development of carbonate platforms, which together suggest a change in the carbon cycling regime within the Tethys-Atlantic Ocean system.

Ten years of lung transplantation in Switzerland: results of the Swiss Lung Transplant Registry.

Lung transplantation has evolved from an experimental procedure to a viable therapeutic option in many countries. In Switzerland, the first lung transplant was performed in November 1992, more than ten years after the first successful procedure world-wide. Thenceforward, a prospective national lung transplant registry was established, principally to enable quality control. The data of all patients transplanted in the two Swiss Lung Transplant centres Zurich University Hospital and Centre de Romandie (Geneva-Lausanne) were analysed. In 10 years 242 lung transplants have been performed. Underlying lung diseases were cystic fibrosis including bronchiectasis (32%), emphysema (32%), parenchymal disorders (19%), pulmonary hypertension (11%) and lymphangioleiomyomatosis (3%). There were only 3% redo procedures. The 1, 5 and 9 year survival rates were 77% (95% CI 72-82), 64% (95% CI 57-71) and 56% (95% CI 45-67), respectively. The 5 year survival rate of patients transplanted since 1998 was 72% (95% CI 64-80). Multivariate Cox regression analysis revealed that survival was significantly better in this group compared to those transplanted before 1998 (HR 0.44, 0.26-0.75). Patients aged 60 years and older (HR 5.67, 95% CI 2.50-12.89) and those with pulmonary hypertension (HR 2.01, 95% CI 1.10-3.65) had a significantly worse prognosis The most frequent causes of death were infections (29%), bronchiolitis obliterans syndrome (25%) and multiple organ failure (14%). The 10-year Swiss experience of lung transplantation compares favourably with the international data. The best results are obtained in cystic fibrosis, pulmonary emphysema and parenchymal disorders.

Does VAA popularity pay off ? : Smartvote users preferred candidates and their results in the 2007 Swiss federal elections

Voting is fundamental for democracy, however, this decisive democratic act requires quite an effort. Decision making at elections depends largely on the interest to gather information about candidates and parties, the effort to process the information at hand and the motivation to reach a vote choice. Especially in electoral systems with highly fragmented party systems and hundreds of candidates running for office, the process of decision making in the pre‐election sphere is highly demanding. In the age of information and communication technologies, new possibilities for gathering and processing such information are available. Voting Advice Applications (VAAs) provide guidance to voters prior to the act of voting and assist voters in choosing between different candidates and parties on the basis of issue congruence. Meanwhile widely used all over the world, scientific inquiry into the effect of such tools on electoral behavior is ongoing. This paper adds to the current debate by focusing on whether the popularity of candidates on the Swiss VAA smartvote eventually paid off at the 2007 Swiss federal elections and whether there is a direct link between the performance of a candidate on the tool and his or her electoral performance.

Descriptive epidemiology of skin cancer in the Swiss Canton of Vaud.

Incidence registration and survival data for non-melanocytic skin neoplasms and cutaneous melanoma have been abstracted from the population-based system of the Cancer Registry of the Swiss Canton of Vaud, which has been operating in a particularly favourable environment, since the large majority of cutaneous lesions resected in the area are examined by a pathologist. Among the 5,712 cases registered, 66.7% were basal-cell carcinomas, 20.6% squamous-cell cancers, 9.3% cutaneous melanomas and 3.4% other miscellaneous histological types. The distribution by histological type did not differ appreciably in the 2 sexes, but there were marked inter-sex differences as regards anatomical site. In both sexes, head and neck was by far the commonest localization for non-melanomatous neoplasms (69 to 81% of all incident cases), followed by trunk for basal-cell cancers (18% in males, 15% in females) and upper limb for squamous-cell (10% in males, 17% in females). The distribution of skin melanomas differed considerably between the 2 sexes, by far the commonest site being the trunk for males (45% of cases) and lower limbs for females (40%), followed by head and neck (22% in both sexes). Incidence rates for both basal- and squamous-cell cancers increased with age, and rates were higher in males for each localization except the lower limb. In contrast, incidence for melanoma was higher in females, and incidence rates did not increase with age above 55 years for all sites except head and neck. This can be interpreted in terms of cohort effect, since mortality from melanoma has substantially increased in Switzerland across subsequent birth cohorts. Although this study is essentially descriptive, accurate inspection of these data provides some support for the major aetiological hypotheses of skin carcinogenesis, i.e., the observation that the large majority of basal- and squamous-cell cancers arise on the head and neck confirms the importance of long-term ultraviolet exposure; the relative excess of squamous-cell as compared to basal-cell neoplasms on the upper limb may suggest the role of exposure to other (chemical) carcinogens; and the proportional excess of melanomas on the trunk in males and lower limb in females further indicates that intermittent exposure to sunlight is probably the relevant aetiologic factor for melanocytic skin neoplasms.

Maps as risk mitigation tools. Adaptation of the Swiss hazard assessment and mapping methodology to a Moroccan site: Beni Mellal

Dans le contexte climatique actuel, les régions méditerranéennes connaissent une intensification des phénomènes hydrométéorologiques extrêmes. Au Maroc, le risque lié aux inondations est devenu problématique, les communautés étant vulnérables aux événements extrêmes. En effet, le développement économique et urbain rapide et mal maîtrisé augmente l'exposition aux phénomènes extrêmes. La Direction du Développement et de la Coopération suisse (DDC) s'implique activement dans la réduction des risques naturels au Maroc. La cartographie des dangers et son intégration dans l'aménagement du territoire représentent une méthode efficace afin de réduire la vulnérabilité spatiale. Ainsi, la DDC a mandaté ce projet d'adaptation de la méthode suisse de cartographie des dangers à un cas d'étude marocain (la ville de Beni Mellal, région de Tadla-Azilal, Maroc). La méthode suisse a été adaptée aux contraintes spécifiques du terrain (environnement semi-aride, morphologie de piémont) et au contexte de transfert de connaissances (caractéristiques socio-économiques et pratiques). Une carte des phénomènes d'inondations a été produite. Elle contient les témoins morphologiques et les éléments anthropiques pertinents pour le développement et l'aggravation des inondations. La modélisation de la relation pluie-débit pour des événements de référence, et le routage des hydrogrammes de crue ainsi obtenus ont permis d'estimer quantitativement l'aléa inondation. Des données obtenues sur le terrain (estimations de débit, extension de crues connues) ont permis de vérifier les résultats des modèles. Des cartes d'intensité et de probabilité ont été obtenues. Enfin, une carte indicative du danger d'inondation a été produite sur la base de la matrice suisse du danger qui croise l'intensité et la probabilité d'occurrence d'un événement pour obtenir des degrés de danger assignables au territoire étudié. En vue de l'implémentation des cartes de danger dans les documents de l'aménagement du territoire, nous nous intéressons au fonctionnement actuel de la gestion institutionnelle du risque à Beni Mellal, en étudiant le degré d'intégration de la gestion et la manière dont les connaissances sur les risques influencent le processus de gestion. L'analyse montre que la gestion est marquée par une logique de gestion hiérarchique et la priorité des mesures de protection par rapport aux mesures passives d'aménagement du territoire. Les connaissances sur le risque restent sectorielles, souvent déconnectées. L'innovation dans le domaine de la gestion du risque résulte de collaborations horizontales entre les acteurs ou avec des sources de connaissances externes (par exemple les universités). Des recommandations méthodologiques et institutionnelles issues de cette étude ont été adressées aux gestionnaires en vue de l'implémentation des cartes de danger. Plus que des outils de réduction du risque, les cartes de danger aident à transmettre des connaissances vers le public et contribuent ainsi à établir une culture du risque. - Severe rainfall events are thought to be occurring more frequently in semi-arid areas. In Morocco, flood hazard has become an important topic, notably as rapid economic development and high urbanization rates have increased the exposure of people and assets in hazard-prone areas. The Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation (SADC) is active in natural hazard mitigation in Morocco. As hazard mapping for urban planning is thought to be a sound tool for vulnerability reduction, the SADC has financed a project aimed at adapting the Swiss approach for hazard assessment and mapping to the case of Morocco. In a knowledge transfer context, the Swiss method was adapted to the semi-arid environment, the specific piedmont morphology and to socio-economic constraints particular to the study site. Following the Swiss guidelines, a hydro-geomorphological map was established, containing all geomorphic elements related to known past floods. Next, rainfall / runoff modeling for reference events and hydraulic routing of the obtained hydrographs were carried out in order to assess hazard quantitatively. Field-collected discharge estimations and flood extent for known floods were used to verify the model results. Flood hazard intensity and probability maps were obtained. Finally, an indicative danger map as defined within the Swiss hazard assessment terminology was calculated using the Swiss hazard matrix that convolves flood intensity with its recurrence probability in order to assign flood danger degrees to the concerned territory. Danger maps become effective, as risk mitigation tools, when implemented in urban planning. We focus on how local authorities are involved in the risk management process and how knowledge about risk impacts the management. An institutional vulnerability "map" was established based on individual interviews held with the main institutional actors in flood management. Results show that flood hazard management is defined by uneven actions and relationships, it is based on top-down decision-making patterns, and focus is maintained on active mitigation measures. The institutional actors embody sectorial, often disconnected risk knowledge pools, whose relationships are dictated by the institutional hierarchy. Results show that innovation in the risk management process emerges when actors collaborate despite the established hierarchy or when they open to outer knowledge pools (e.g. the academia). Several methodological and institutional recommendations were addressed to risk management stakeholders in view of potential map implementation to planning. Hazard assessment and mapping is essential to an integrated risk management approach: more than a mitigation tool, danger maps represent tools that allow communicating on hazards and establishing a risk culture.

Cadmium distribution in soils covering Jurassic oolitic limestone with high Cd contents in the Swiss Jura

Oolitic carbonates belonging to the Hauptrogenstein Formation of Bajocian (Middle Jurassic) age have been shown to be anomalously enriched in cadmium (Cd) throughout the Jura Mountains. Soils associated with this type of rock substratum may be naturally polluted with regards to Cd. At Schleifenberg (Canton Basel Land, Switzerland) the Hauptrogenstein Formation is almost entirely exposed along a trail on its SW flank. Cadmium concentrations were systematically measured throughout this formation and Cd enrichments in rocks are shown to occur to a maximum content of 4.9 mg kg(-1). We investigated associated soils, which cover the entire outcrop, and show that they have been formed through the weathering of the underlying bedrock and through the uptake of colluvial limestone fragments from the same and older formations. Cadmium contents in the soils reach a maximum value of 2.0 mg kg(-1), thereby exceeding the official Swiss indicative guideline value for soils fixed at 0.8 mg.kg(-1). Mineralogical analyses on the soils and associated bedrock suggest that no allochthonous component related to aeolian transport is present. Sequential extractions applied to selected soil samples show that about half of the Cd resides in the carbonate fraction coming from the fractured parent-rock, while the Cd released from the weathered carbonates is associated either with organic matter (over 10%) or with Fe and Mn-oxihydroxides (approximately 30%). No exchangeable Cd phase was found and this, together with the buffer capacity of this calcareous soil, suggests that the amount of mobile Cd is quite negligible in this soil, which also greatly reduces the amount of bioavailable