Intensification of winter transatlantic aviation turbulence in response to climate change

Atmospheric turbulence causes most weather-related aircraft incidents1. Commercial aircraft encounter moderate-or-greater turbulence tens of thousands of times each year worldwide, injuring probably hundreds of passengers (occasionally fatally), costing airlines tens of millions of dollars and causing structural damage to planes1, 2, 3. Clear-air turbulence is especially difficult to avoid, because it cannot be seen by pilots or detected by satellites or on-board radar4, 5. Clear-air turbulence is linked to atmospheric jet streams6, 7, which are projected to be strengthened by anthropogenic climate change8. However, the response of clear-air turbulence to projected climate change has not previously been studied. Here we show using climate model simulations that clear-air turbulence changes significantly within the transatlantic flight corridor when the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is doubled. At cruise altitudes within 50–75° N and 10–60° W in winter, most clear-air turbulence measures show a 10–40% increase in the median strength of turbulence and a 40–170% increase in the frequency of occurrence of moderate-or-greater turbulence. Our results suggest that climate change will lead to bumpier transatlantic flights by the middle of this century. Journey times may lengthen and fuel consumption and emissions may increase. Aviation is partly responsible for changing the climate9, but our findings show for the first time how climate change could affect aviation.

Analysis of frequency and intensity of European winter storm events from a multi-model perspective, at synoptic and regional scales

This study focuses on the analysis of winter (October-November-December-January-February-March; ONDJFM) storm events and their changes due to increased anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations over Europe. In order to assess uncertainties that are due to model formulation, 4 regional climate models (RCMs) with 5 high resolution experiments, and 4 global general circulation models (GCMs) are considered. Firstly, cyclone systems as synoptic scale processes in winter are investigated, as they are a principal cause of the occurrence of extreme, damage-causing wind speeds. This is achieved by use of an objective cyclone identification and tracking algorithm applied to GCMs. Secondly, changes in extreme near-surface wind speeds are analysed. Based on percentile thresholds, the studied extreme wind speed indices allow a consistent analysis over Europe that takes systematic deviations of the models into account. Relative changes in both intensity and frequency of extreme winds and their related uncertainties are assessed and related to changing patterns of extreme cyclones. A common feature of all investigated GCMs is a reduced track density over central Europe under climate change conditions, if all systems are considered. If only extreme (i.e. the strongest 5%) cyclones are taken into account, an increasing cyclone activity for western parts of central Europe is apparent; however, the climate change signal reveals a reduced spatial coherency when compared to all systems, which exposes partially contrary results. With respect to extreme wind speeds, significant positive changes in intensity and frequency are obtained over at least 3 and 20% of the European domain under study (35–72°N and 15°W–43°E), respectively. Location and extension of the affected areas (up to 60 and 50% of the domain for intensity and frequency, respectively), as well as levels of changes (up to +15 and +200% for intensity and frequency, respectively) are shown to be highly dependent on the driving GCM, whereas differences between RCMs when driven by the same GCM are relatively small.

Extratropical cyclones and the projected decline of winter Mediterranean precipitation in the CMIP5 models

The Mediterranean region has been identified as a climate change "hot-spot" due to a projected reduction in precipitation and fresh water availability which has potentially large socio-economic impacts. To increase confidence in these projections, it is important to physically understand how this precipitation reduction occurs. This study quantifies the impact on winter Mediterranean precipitation due to changes in extratropical cyclones in 17 CMIP5 climate models. In each model, the extratropical cyclones are objectively tracked and a simple approach is applied to identify the precipitation associated to each cyclone. This allows us to decompose the Mediterranean precipitation reduction into a contribution due to changes in the number of cyclones and a contribution due to changes in the amount of precipitation generated by each cyclone. The results show that the projected Mediterranean precipitation reduction in winter is strongly related to a decrease in the number of Mediterranean cyclones. However, the contribution from changes in the amount of precipitation generated by each cyclone are also locally important: in the East Mediterranean they amplify the precipitation trend due to the reduction in the number of cyclones, while in the North Mediterranean they compensate for it. Some of the processes that determine the opposing cyclone precipitation intensity responses in the North and East Mediterranean regions are investigated by exploring the CMIP5 inter-model spread.

Comparative analysis of performance and stability among composite cross populations, variety mixtures and pure lines of winter wheat in organic and conventional cropping systems

This study investigated the effects of increased genetic diversity in winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.), either from hybridization across genotypes or from physical mixing of lines, on grain yield, grain quality, and yield stability in different cropping environments. Sets of pure lines (no diversity), chosen for high yielding ability or high quality, were compared with line mixtures (intermediate level of diversity), and lines crossed with each other in composite cross populations (CCPn, high diversity). Additional populations containing male sterility genes (CCPms) to increase outcrossing rates were also tested. Grain yield, grain protein content, and protein yield were measured at four sites (two organically-managed and two conventionally-managed) over three years, using seed harvested locally in each preceding year. CCPn and mixtures out-yielded the mean of the parents by 2.4% and 3.6%, respectively. These yield differences were consistent across genetic backgrounds but partly inconsistent across cropping environments and years. Yield stability measured by environmental variance was higher in CCPn and CCPms than the mean of the parents. An index of yield reliability tended to be higher in CCPn, CCPms and mixtures than the mean of the parents. Lin and Binns’ superiority values of yield and protein yield were consistently and significantly lower (i.e. better) in the CCPs than in the mean of the parents, but not different between CCPs and mixtures. However, CCPs showed greater early ground cover and plant height than mixtures. When compared with the (locally non-predictable) best-yielding pure line, CCPs and mixtures exhibited lower mean yield and somewhat lower yield reliability but comparable superiority values. Thus, establishing CCPs from smaller sets of high-performing parent lines might optimize their yielding ability. On the whole, the results demonstrate that using increased within-crop genetic diversity can produce wheat crops with improved yield stability and good yield reliability across variable and unpredictable cropping environments.

Mechanisms underlying temperature extremes in Iberia: a Lagrangian perspective

The mechanisms underlying the occurrence of temperature extremes in Iberia are analysed considering a Lagrangian perspective of the atmospheric flow, using 6-hourly ERA-Interim reanalysis data for the years 1979–2012. Daily 2-m minimum temperatures below the 1st percentile and 2-m maximum temperatures above the 99th percentile at each grid point over Iberia are selected separately for winter and summer. Four categories of extremes are analysed using 10-d backward trajectories initialized at the extreme temperature grid points close to the surface: winter cold (WCE) and warm extremes (WWE), and summer cold (SCE) and warm extremes (SWE). Air masses leading to temperature extremes are first transported from the North Atlantic towards Europe for all categories. While there is a clear relation to large-scale circulation patterns in winter, the Iberian thermal low is important in summer. Along the trajectories, air mass characteristics are significantly modified through adiabatic warming (air parcel descent), upper-air radiative cooling and near-surface warming (surface heat fluxes and radiation). High residence times over continental areas, such as over northern-central Europe for WCE and, to a lesser extent, over Iberia for SWE, significantly enhance these air mass modifications. Near-surface diabatic warming is particularly striking for SWE. WCE and SWE are responsible for the most extreme conditions in a given year. For WWE and SCE, strong temperature advection associated with important meridional air mass transports are the main driving mechanisms, accompanied by comparatively minor changes in the air mass properties. These results permit a better understanding of mechanisms leading to temperature extremes in Iberia.

Enhanced long-range forecast skill in boreal winter following stratospheric strong vortex conditions

There has been a great deal of recent interest in producing weather forecasts on the 2–6 week sub-seasonal timescale, which bridges the gap between medium-range (0–10 day) and seasonal (3–6 month) forecasts. While much of this interest is focused on the potential applications of skilful forecasts on the sub-seasonal range, understanding the potential sources of sub-seasonal forecast skill is a challenging and interesting problem, particularly because of the likely state-dependence of this skill (Hudson et al 2011). One such potential source of state-dependent skill for the Northern Hemisphere in winter is the occurrence of stratospheric sudden warming (SSW) events (Sigmond et al 2013). Here we show, by analysing a set of sub-seasonal hindcasts, that there is enhanced predictability of surface circulation not only when the stratospheric vortex is anomalously weak following SSWs but also when the vortex is extremely strong. Sub-seasonal forecasts initialized during strong vortex events are able to successfully capture the associated surface temperature and circulation anomalies. This results in an enhancement of Northern annular mode forecast skill compared to forecasts initialized during the cases when the stratospheric state is close to climatology. We demonstrate that the enhancement of skill for forecasts initialized during periods of strong vortex conditions is comparable to that achieved for forecasts initialized during weak events. This result indicates that additional confidence can be placed in sub-seasonal forecasts when the stratospheric polar vortex is significantly disturbed from its normal state.

Economic analysis of cucumber and lettuce intercropping under greenhouse in the winter-spring

A análise econômica complementa a avaliação da eficiência dos cultivos consorciados, considerando além da produção física das culturas, o preço dos produtos segundo sua classificação qualitativa e época do ano. Avaliou-se economicamente consórcios de alface crespa e pepino, em duas populações de plantas, no inverno-primavera, em casa de vegetação, em Jaboticabal, SP, Brasil. Foram calculados o custo operacional total (COT), a receita bruta (RB) e o lucro operacional (LO) das culturas do pepino e alface em monocultura e em consórcio. A mão-de-obra foi a componente com maior participação no COT das culturas em consórcio e monocultura. Maiores RB e LO foram observadas nos cultivos consorciados estabelecidos com o transplante da alface e do pepino no mesmo dia, independente da densidade populacional. Considerando-se o lucro operacional e o índice de uso eficiente da área, recomenda-se o cultivo consorciado com transplante da alface até 10 dias após o transplante (DAT) do pepino, com duas linhas, e ao 0 DAT do pepino cultivado com uma linha no canteiro

Nitrogen and carbohydrate fractions in exclusive Tifton 85 and in pasture oversown with annual winter forage species

O experimento foi conduzido na FCAV - Campus de Jaboticabal, no período de inverno-primavera-verão de 2001-2002, com o objetivo de determinar o fracionamento de compostos nitrogenados e de carboidratos do Tifton 85 (Cynodon nlemfuensis Vanderyst x Cynodon dactylon (L.) Pers), exclusivo ou sobressemeado com forrageiras anuais de inverno. Os tratamentos testados foram: aveia preta (Avena strigosa Schreb); aveia amarela (Avena byzantina C. Koch); triticale (X Triticosecale Wittmack); aveia preta + aveia amarela; aveia preta + triticale; aveia amarela + triticale; aveia preta + aveia amarela + triticale, sobressemeados sobre Tifton 85 e, sem consorciação (testemunha). O delineamento experimental utilizado foi o de blocos completos ao acaso, com três repetições. O corte das forrageiras foi realizado a 20 cm de altura (presença de forrageiras de inverno) e 10 cm de altura (ausência das forrageiras de inverno). Foram determinados os teores de proteína bruta, carboidratos totais, e o fracionamento dos compostos nitrogenados e de carboidratos. Houve redução nos teores dos compostos químicos das espécies de forrageiras de inverno e no Tifton 85 ao longo dos períodos de avaliações. Os conteúdos de compostos nitrogenados e de carboidratos apresentaram grande variação durante os períodos avaliados, relacionando com as características morfológicas das espécies de gramineas e com a composição botânica das pastagens.

Coupling remote sensing bio-optical and three-dimensional hydrodynamic modeling to study the phytoplankton dynamics in a tropical hydroelectric reservoir

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Daily rhythms of native Brazilians in summer and winter

Access to electricity, granting relative independence of human activity on the dark phase of the day, has been pointed out as an important cause for the absence of seasonal changes in the daily rhythms of humans living in urban areas. Featuring a population of adult Guarani natives living without access to electricity, the present naturalistic study was designed to explore possible effects of different natural photoperiods and temperature on human circadian rhythms. We compared time series of wrist temperature (WT) and motor activity in winter and summer, respectively, 01 24 individuals aged 18 to 80. Twenty-four-hour rhythms of WT showed lower amplitudes and higher mean levels in summer, with no significant seasonal differences in acrophase. In contrast, rest-activity (RA) rhythms exhibited a significantly later rest on-and offset in summer, but no seasonal changes in duration, amplitude and mean level. We furthermore identified a phase advance of both the WT acrophase and rest onset with increasing age of the individuals. We concluded that in our study the effect of different seasons was reflected in the amplitude and mean level of the WT rhythm, as well the onset of nighttime rest, which was delayed in summer. (C) 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Chemistry of aerosol particles and fog droplets during fall-winter season in the Po Valley

Air quality represents a key issue in the so-called pollution “hot spots”: environments in which anthropogenic sources are concentrated and dispersion of pollutants is limited. One of these environments, the Po Valley, normally experiences exceedances of PM10 and PM2.5 concentration limits, especially in winter when the ventilation of the lower layers of the atmosphere is reduced. This thesis provides a highlight of the chemical properties of particulate matter and fog droplets in the Po Valley during the cold season, when fog occurrence is very frequent. Fog-particles interactions were investigated with the aim to determine their impact on the regional air quality. Size-segregated aerosol samples were collected in Bologna, urban site, and San Pietro Capofiume (SPC), rural site, during two campaigns (November 2011; February 2013) in the frame of Supersito project. The comparison between particles size-distribution and chemical composition in both sites showed the relevant contribution of the regional background and secondary processes in determining the Po Valley aerosol concentration. Occurrence of fog in November 2011 campaign in SPC allowed to investigate the role of fog formation and fog chemistry in the formation, processing and deposition of PM10. Nucleation scavenging was investigated with relation to the size and the chemical composition of particles. We found that PM1 concentration is reduced up to 60% because of fog scavenging. Furthermore, aqueous-phase secondary aerosol formation mechanisms were investigated through time-resolved measurements. In SPC fog samples have been systematically collected and analysed since the nineties; a 20 years long database has been assembled. This thesis reports for the first time the results of this long time series of measurements, showing a decrease of sulphate and nitrate concentration and an increase of pH that reached values close to neutrality. A detailed discussion about the occurred changes in fog water composition over two decades is presented.

Seasonal variation in orthopedic health services utilization in Switzerland: the impact of winter sport tourism

BACKGROUND: Climate- or holiday-related seasonality in hospital admission rates is well known for many diseases. However, little research has addressed the impact of tourism on seasonality in admission rates. We therefore investigated the influence of tourism on emergency admission rates in Switzerland, where winter and summer leisure sport activities in large mountain regions can generate orthopedic injuries. METHODS: Using small area analysis, orthopedic hospital service areas (HSAo) were evaluated for seasonality in emergency admission rates. Winter sport areas were defined using guest bed accommodation rate patterns of guest houses and hotels located above 1000 meters altitude that show clear winter and summer peak seasons. Emergency admissions (years 2000-2002, n = 135'460) of local and nonlocal HSAo residents were evaluated. HSAo were grouped according to their area type (regular or winter sport area) and monthly analyses of admission rates were performed. RESULTS: Of HSAo within the defined winter sport areas 70.8% show a seasonal, summer-winter peak hospital admission rate pattern and only 1 HSAo outside the defined winter sport areas shows such a pattern. Seasonal hospital admission rates in HSAo in winter sport areas can be up to 4 times higher in winter than the intermediate seasons, and they are almost entirely due to admissions of nonlocal residents. These nonlocal residents are in general -and especially in winter- younger than local residents, and nonlocal residents have a shorter length of stay in winter sport than in regular areas. The overall geographic distribution of nonlocal residents admitted for emergencies shows highest rates during the winter as well as the summer in the winter sport areas. CONCLUSION: Small area analysis using orthopedic hospital service areas is a reliable method for the evaluation of seasonality in hospital admission rates. In Switzerland, HSAo defined as winter sport areas show a clear seasonal fluctuation in admission rates of only nonlocal residents, whereas HSAo defined as regular, non-winter sport areas do not show such seasonality. We conclude that leisure sport, and especially ski/snowboard tourism demands great flexibility in hospital beds, staff and resource planning in these areas.

Fossil vs. non-fossil sources of fine carbonaceous aerosols in four Chinese cities during the extreme winter haze episode of 2013

During winter 2013, extremely high concentrations (i.e., 4–20 times higher than the World Health Organization guideline) of PM2.5 (particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter < 2.5 μm) mass concentrations (24 h samples) were found in four major cities in China including Xi'an, Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou. Statistical analysis of a combined data set from elemental carbon (EC), organic carbon (OC), 14C and biomass-burning marker measurements using Latin hypercube sampling allowed a quantitative source apportionment of carbonaceous aerosols. Based on 14C measurements of EC fractions (six samples each city), we found that fossil emissions from coal combustion and vehicle exhaust dominated EC with a mean contribution of 75 ± 8% across all sites. The remaining 25 ± 8% was exclusively attributed to biomass combustion, consistent with the measurements of biomass-burning markers such as anhydrosugars (levoglucosan and mannosan) and water-soluble potassium (K+). With a combination of the levoglucosan-to-mannosan and levoglucosan-to-K+ ratios, the major source of biomass burning in winter in China is suggested to be combustion of crop residues. The contribution of fossil sources to OC was highest in Beijing (58 ± 5%) and decreased from Shanghai (49 ± 2%) to Xi'an (38 ± 3%) and Guangzhou (35 ± 7%). Generally, a larger fraction of fossil OC was from secondary origins than primary sources for all sites. Non-fossil sources accounted on average for 55 ± 10 and 48 ± 9% of OC and total carbon (TC), respectively, which suggests that non-fossil emissions were very important contributors of urban carbonaceous aerosols in China. The primary biomass-burning emissions accounted for 40 ± 8, 48 ± 18, 53 ± 4 and 65 ± 26% of non-fossil OC for Xi'an, Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou, respectively. Other non-fossil sources excluding primary biomass burning were mainly attributed to formation of secondary organic carbon (SOC) from non-fossil precursors such as biomass-burning emissions. For each site, we also compared samples from moderately to heavily polluted days according to particulate matter mass. Despite a significant increase of the absolute mass concentrations of primary emissions from both fossil and non-fossil sources during the heavily polluted events, their relative contribution to TC was even decreased, whereas the portion of SOC was consistently increased at all sites. This observation indicates that SOC was an important fraction in the increment of carbonaceous aerosols during the haze episode in China.

Quantitative summer and winter temperature reconstructions from pollen and chironomid data between 15 and 8 ka BP in the Baltic–Belarus area

New pollen based reconstructions of summer (May-to-August) and winter (December-to-February) temperatures between 15 and 8 ka BP along a S-N transect in the Baltic-Belarus (BB) area display trends in temporal and spatial changes in climate variability. These results are completed by two chironomid-based July mean temperature reconstructions. The magnitude of change compared with modern temperatures was more prominent in the northern part of BB area. The 4 C degrees winter and 2 C degrees summer warming at the start of GI-1 was delayed in the BB area and Lateglacial maximum temperatures were reached at ca 13.6 ka BP, being 4 C degrees colder than the modern mean. The Younger Dryas cooling in the area was 5 C degrees colder than present, as inferred by all proxies. In addition, our analyses show an early Holocene divergence in winter temperature trends with modern values reaching 1 ka earlier (10 ka BP) in southern BB compared to the northern part of the region (9 ka BP).