Management of thermal performance risks in buildings subject to climate change

This article reports on the use of building performance simulation to quantify the risks that climate change poses to the thermal performance of buildings, and to their critical functions. Through a number of case studies the article demonstrates that any prediction of the probable thermal building performance on the long timeframes inherent in climate change comes with very large uncertainties. The same cases are used to illustrate that assessing the consequences of predicted change is problematic, since the functions that the building provides in themselves often are a moving target. The article concludes that quantification of the risks posed by climate change is possible, but only with many restrictions. Further research that is needed to move to more effective discussion about risk acceptance and risk abatement for specific buildings is identified. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd.

Building performance simulation for the management of thermal performance risks in buildings subject to climate change

This paper reports on research that uses building performance simulation and uncertainty analysis to assess the risks that projected climate change poses to the thermal performance of buildings, and to their critical functions. The work takes meteorological climate change predictions as a starting point, but also takes into account developments and uncertainties in technology, occupancy, intervention and renovation, and others. Four cases are studied in depth to explore the prospects of the quantification of said climate change risks. The research concludes that quantification of the risks posed by climate change is possible, but only with many restrictive assumptions on the input side.

Transfer, distribution and bioaccumulation of microcystins in the aquatic food web in Lake Taihu, China, with potential risks to human health

In this paper, accumulation and distribution of microcystins (MCs) was examined monthly in six species of fish with different trophic levels in Meiliang Bay, Lake Taihu, China, from June to November 2005, Microcystins were analyzed by liquid chromatography electrospray ionization mass spectrometry (LC-ESI-MS). Average recoveries of spiked fish samples were 67.7% for MC-RR, 85.3% for MC-YR, and 88.6% for MC-LR. The MCs (MC-RR+MC-YR+MC-LR) concentration in liver and gut content was highest in phytoplanktivorous fish, followed by omnivorous fish, and was lowest in carnivorous fish; while MCs concentration in muscle was highest in omnivorous fish, followed by phytoplanktivorous fish, and was lowest in carnivorous fish. This is the first study reporting MCs accumulation in the gonad of fish in field. The main uptake of MC-YR in fish seems to be through the gills from the dissolved MCs. The WHO limit for tolerable daily intake was exceeded only in common carp muscle. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Distribution and bioaccumulation of microcystins in water columns: A systematic investigation into the environmental fate and the risks associated with microcystins in Meiliang Bay, Lake Taihu

For the purpose of understanding the environmental fate of microcystins (MCs) and the potential health risks caused by toxic cyanobacterial blooms in Lake Taihu, a systematic investigation was carried out from February 2005 to January 2006. The distribution of MCs in the water column, and toxin bioaccumulations in aquatic organisms were surveyed. The results suggested that Lake Taihu is heavily polluted during summer months by toxic cyanobacterial blooms (with a maximum biovolume of 6.7 x 10(8) cells/L) and MCs. The maximum concentration of cell-bound toxins was 1.81 mg/g (DW) and the dissolved MCs reached a maximum level of 6.69 mu g/L. Dissolved MCs were always found in the entire water column at all sampling sites throughout the year. Our results emphasized the need for tracking MCs not only in the entire water column but also at the interface between water and sediment. Seasonal changes of MC concentrations in four species of hydrophytes (Eichhornic crassipes, Potamogeton maackianus, Alternanthera philoxeroides and Myriophyllum spicatum) ranged from 129 to 1317, 147 to 1534, 169 to 3945 and 124 to 956 ng/g (DW), respectively. Toxin accumulations in four aquatic species (Carassius auratus auratu, Macrobrachium nipponensis, Bellamya aeruginosa and Cristaria plicata) were also analyzed. Maximum toxin concentrations in the edible organs and non-edible visceral organs ranged from 378 to 730 and 754 to 3629 ng/g (DW), respectively. Based on field studies in Lake Taihu, risk assessments were carried out, taking into account the WHO guidelines and the tolerable daily intake (TDI) for MCs. Our findings suggest that the third largest lake in China poses serious health threats when serving as a source of drinking water and for recreational use. In addition, it is likely to be unsafe to consume aquatic species harvested in Lake Taihu due to the high-concentrations of accumulated MCs. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A nonlinear model for assessing multiple probabilistic risks: A case study in South five-island of Changdao National Nature Reserve in China

Several methods for estimating the potential impacts caused by multiple probabilistic risks have been suggested. These existing methods mostly rely on the weight sum algorithm to address the need for integrated risk assessment. This paper develops a nonlinear model to perform such an assessment. The joint probability algorithm has been applied to the model development. An application of the developed model in South five-island of Changdao National Nature Reserve, China, combining remote sensing data and a GIS technique, provides a reasonable risk assessment. Based on the case study, we discuss the feasibility of the model. We propose that the model has the potential for use in identifying the regional primary stressor, investigating the most vulnerable habitat, and assessing the integrated impact of multiple stressors. (C) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Ocean urea fertilization for carbon credits poses high ecological risks

The proposed plan for enrichment of the Sulu Sea, Philippines, a region of rich marine biodiversity, with thousands of tonnes of urea in order to stimulate algal blooms and sequester carbon is flawed for multiple reasons. Urea is preferentially used as a nitrogen source by some cyanobacteria and dinoflagellates, many of which are neutrally or positively buoyant. Biological pumps to the deep sea are classically leaky, and the inefficient burial of new biomass makes the estimation of a net loss of carbon from the atmosphere questionable at best. The potential for growth of toxic dinoflagellates is also high, as many grow well on urea and some even increase their toxicity when grown on urea. Many toxic dinoflagellates form cysts which can settle to the sediment and germinate in subsequent years, forming new blooms even without further fertilization. If large-scale blooms do occur, it is likely that they will contribute to hypoxia in the bottom waters upon decomposition. Lastly, urea production requires fossil fuel usage, further limiting the potential for net carbon sequestration. The environmental and economic impacts are potentially great and need to be rigorously assessed. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Workplace sedentary health risks and exercise interventions

Sedentary lifestyle and physical inactivity are causes of major health risks including cardiovascular disease (CVD), diabetes and cancer. Workplace is an ideal setting to understand both the prevalence of these risks and for devising and implementing effective intervention strategies. It is now possible to perform direct workplace assessments to identify the sedentary prevalence and assess the sedentary related health risks, which can include assessing the risks of atherosclerosis, hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, hyperglyaemia and reduced cardiorespiratory capacity. Based on evaluating the workplace health risks, it is possible to identify individuals who may be at higher CVD risk so they can be targeted with a risk-reduction intervention that can also be tailored towards improving healthy behaviours, especially towards physical activity activity and exercise. This chapter explains workplace sedentary risks, and provides examples of CVD risk prevalence, particularly within the university campus workplace, and presents examples of an exercise based targeted interventions aimed at reducing CVD risks amongst high risk sedentary employees.

Polymorphisms in the ACE and ADRB2 genes and risks of aging-associated phenotypes: the case of myocardial infarction.

Multiple functions of the beta2-adrenergic receptor (ADRB2) and angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) genes warrant studies of their associations with aging-related phenotypes. We focus on multimarker analyses and analyses of the effects of compound genotypes of two polymorphisms in the ADRB2 gene, rs1042713 and rs1042714, and 11 polymorphisms of the ACE gene, on the risk of such an aging-associated phenotype as myocardial infarction (MI). We used the data from a genotyped sample of the Framingham Heart Study Offspring (FHSO) cohort (n = 1500) followed for about 36 years with six examinations. The ADRB2 rs1042714 (C-->G) polymorphism and two moderately correlated (r(2) = 0.77) ACE polymorphisms, rs4363 (A-->G) and rs12449782 (A-->G), were significantly associated with risks of MI in this aging cohort in multimarker models. Predominantly linked ACE genotypes exhibited opposite effects on MI risks, e.g., the AA (rs12449782) genotype had a detrimental effect, whereas the predominantly linked AA (rs4363) genotype exhibited a protective effect. This trade-off occurs as a result of the opposite effects of rare compound genotypes of the ACE polymorphisms with a single dose of the AG heterozygote. This genetic trade-off is further augmented by the selective modulating effect of the rs1042714 ADRB2 polymorphism. The associations were not altered by adjustment for common MI risk factors. The results suggest that effects of single specific genetic variants of the ADRB2 and ACE genes on MI can be readily altered by gene-gene or/and gene-environmental interactions, especially in large heterogeneous samples. Multimarker genetic analyses should benefit studies of complex aging-associated phenotypes.

Percent body fat more associated with perioperative risks after total joint arthroplasty than body mass index

Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.Understanding the impact of obesity on elective total joint arthroplasty (TJA) remains critical. Perioperative outcomes were reviewed in 316 patients undergoing primary TJA. Higher percent body fat (PBF) was associated with postoperative blood transfusion, increased hospital length of stay (LOS) >3 days, and discharge to an extended care facility while no significant differences existed for BMI. Additionally, PBF of 43.5 was associated with a 2.4× greater likelihood of blood transfusion, PBF of 36.5 with a 1.9× greater likelihood for LOS >3 days, and PBF of 36.0 with a 1.4× greater likelihood for discharge to an extended care facility. PBF may be a more effective measure than BMI to use in screening for perioperative risks and acute outcomes associated with obese total joint patients.

A case-control study of airways obstruction among construction workers.

BACKGROUND: While smoking is the major cause of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), occupational exposures to vapors, gases, dusts, and fumes (VGDF) increase COPD risk. This case-control study estimated the risk of COPD attributable to occupational exposures among construction workers. METHODS: The study population included 834 cases and 1243 controls participating in a national medical screening program for older construction workers between 1997 and 2013. Qualitative exposure indices were developed based on lifetime work and exposure histories. RESULTS: Approximately 18% (95% CI = 2-24%) of COPD risk can be attributed to construction-related exposures, which are additive to the risk contributed by smoking. A measure of all VGDF exposures combined was a strong predictor of COPD risk. CONCLUSIONS: Construction workers are at increased risk of COPD as a result of broad and complex effects of many exposures acting independently or interactively. Control methods should be implemented to prevent worker exposures, and smoking cessation should be promoted.

Areva and EDF: business prospects and risks in nuclear energy

This report examines the financial position of EDF and Areva and analyses what the impact of their nuclear ambitions will be on this.