Multidimensional scaling analysis of electricity market prices

This paper studies the impact of energy and stock markets upon electricity markets using Multidimensional Scaling (MDS). Historical values from major energy, stock and electricity markets are adopted. To analyze the data several graphs produced by MDS are presented and discussed. This method is useful to have a deeper insight into the behavior and the correlation of the markets. The results may also guide the construction models, helping electricity markets agents hedging against Market Clearing Price (MCP) volatility and, simultaneously, to achieve better financial results.

Commercial agentes portfolio optimization in electricity markets

As it is well known, competitive electricity markets require new computing tools for power companies that operate in retail markets in order to enhance the management of its energy resources. During the last years there has been an increase of the renewable penetration into the micro-generation which begins to co-exist with the other existing power generation, giving rise to a new type of consumers. This paper develops a methodology to be applied to the management of the all the aggregators. The aggregator establishes bilateral contracts with its clients where the energy purchased and selling conditions are negotiated not only in terms of prices but also for other conditions that allow more flexibility in the way generation and consumption is addressed. The aggregator agent needs a tool to support the decision making in order to compose and select its customers' portfolio in an optimal way, for a given level of profitability and risk.

Electric vehicles as a mean to reduce, energy, emissions and electricity costs

Electric vehicles (EVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), which obtain their fuel from the grid by charging a battery, are set to be introduced into the mass market and expected to contribute to oil consumption reduction. This research is concerned with studying the potential impacts on the electric utilities of large-scale adoption of plug-in electric vehicles from the perspective of electricity demand, fossil fuels use, CO2 emissions and energy costs. Simulations were applied to the Portuguese case study in order to analyze what would be the optimal recharge profile and EV penetration in an energy-oriented, an emissions-oriented and a cost-oriented objective. The objectives considered were: The leveling of load profiles, minimization of daily emissions and minimization of daily wholesale costs. Almost all solutions point to an off-peak recharge and a 50% reduction in daily wholesale costs can be verified from a peak recharge scenario to an off-peak recharge for a 2 million EVs in 2020. A 15% improvement in the daily total wholesale costs can be verified in the costs minimization objective when compared with the off-peak scenario result.

How market power affects the behaviour of a pumped storage hydro unit in the day-ahead electricity market?

The integration of large amounts of wind energy in power systems raises important operation issues such as the balance between power demand and generation. The pumped storage hydro (PSH) units are seen as one solution for this issue, avoiding the need for wind power curtailments. However, the behavior of a PSH unit might differ considerably when it operates in a liberalized market with some degree of market power. In this regard, a new approach for the optimal daily scheduling of a PSH unit in the day-ahead electricity market was developed and presented in this paper, in which the market power is modeled by a residual inverse demand function with a variable elasticity. The results obtained show that increasing degrees of market power of the PSH unit correspond to decreasing levels of storage and, therefore, the capacity to integrate wind power is considerably reduced under these circumstances.

Price forecasting in the day-ahead Iberian electricity market using a conjectural variations Arima model

Price forecast is a matter of concern for all participants in electricity markets, from suppliers to consumers through policy makers, which are interested in the accurate forecast of day-ahead electricity prices either for better decisions making or for an improved evaluation of the effectiveness of market rules and structure. This paper describes a methodology to forecast market prices in an electricity market using an ARIMA model applied to the conjectural variations of the firms acting in an electricity market. This methodology is applied to the Iberian electricity market to forecast market prices in the 24 hours of a working day. The methodology was then compared with two other methodologies, one called naive and the other a direct forecast of market prices using also an ARIMA model. Results show that the conjectural variations price forecast performs better than the naive and that it performs slightly better than the direct price forecast.

Short-term electricity prices forecasting in a competetive market by a hybrid Pso-Anfis approach

In this paper, a novel hybrid approach is proposed for electricity prices forecasting in a competitive market, considering a time horizon of 1 week. The proposed approach is based on the combination of particle swarm optimization and adaptive-network based fuzzy inference system. Results from a case study based on the electricity market of mainland Spain are presented. A thorough comparison is carried out, taking into account the results of previous publications, to demonstrate its effectiveness regarding forecasting accuracy and computation time. Finally, conclusions are duly drawn.

Development of procedures for the simulation of atmospheric flows over complex terrain, using OpenFOAM

The main purpose of this work was the development of procedures for the simulation of atmospheric ows over complex terrain, using OpenFOAM. For this aim, tools and procedures were developed apart from this code for the preprocessing and data extraction, which were thereafter applied in the simulation of a real case. For the generation of the computational domain, a systematic method able to translate the terrain elevation model to a native OpenFOAM format (blockMeshDict) was developed. The outcome was a structured mesh, in which the user has the ability to de ne the number of control volumes and its dimensions. With this procedure, the di culties of case set up and the high computation computational e ort reported in literature associated to the use of snappyHexMesh, the OpenFOAM resource explored until then for the accomplishment of this task, were considered to be overwhelmed. Developed procedures for the generation of boundary conditions allowed for the automatic creation of idealized inlet vertical pro les, de nition of wall functions boundary conditions and the calculation of internal eld rst guesses for the iterative solution process, having as input experimental data supplied by the user. The applicability of the generated boundary conditions was limited to the simulation of turbulent, steady-state, incompressible and neutrally strati ed atmospheric ows, always recurring to RaNS (Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes) models. For the modelling of terrain roughness, the developed procedure allowed to the user the de nition of idealized conditions, like an uniform aerodynamic roughness length or making its value variable as a function of topography characteristic values, or the using of real site data, and it was complemented by the development of techniques for the visual inspection of generated roughness maps. The absence and the non inclusion of a forest canopy model limited the applicability of this procedure to low aerodynamic roughness lengths. The developed tools and procedures were then applied in the simulation of a neutrally strati ed atmospheric ow over the Askervein hill. In the performed simulations was evaluated the solution sensibility to di erent convection schemes, mesh dimensions, ground roughness and formulations of the k - ε and k - ω models. When compared to experimental data, calculated values showed a good agreement of speed-up in hill top and lee side, with a relative error of less than 10% at a height of 10 m above ground level. Turbulent kinetic energy was considered to be well simulated in the hill windward and hill top, and grossly predicted in the lee side, where a zone of ow separation was also identi ed. Despite the need of more work to evaluate the importance of the downstream recirculation zone in the quality of gathered results, the agreement between the calculated and experimental values and the OpenFOAM sensibility to the tested parameters were considered to be generally in line with the simulations presented in the reviewed bibliographic sources.

A first analysis of the atmospheric measurements from TANSO/GOSAT

Dissertação apresentada na Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia da Universidade Nova de Lisboa para obtenção do grau em Mestre em Engenharia Física

Adaptive learning in agents behaviour: A framework for electricity markets simulation

Electricity markets are complex environments, involving a large number of different entities, playing in a dynamic scene to obtain the best advantages and profits. MASCEM (Multi-Agent System for Competitive Electricity Markets) is a multi-agent electricity market simulator that models market players and simulates their operation in the market. Market players are entities with specific characteristics and objectives, making their decisions and interacting with other players. This paper presents a methodology to provide decision support to electricity market negotiating players. This model allows integrating different strategic approaches for electricity market negotiations, and choosing the most appropriate one at each time, for each different negotiation context. This methodology is integrated in ALBidS (Adaptive Learning strategic Bidding System) – a multiagent system that provides decision support to MASCEM's negotiating agents so that they can properly achieve their goals. ALBidS uses artificial intelligence methodologies and data analysis algorithms to provide effective adaptive learning capabilities to such negotiating entities. The main contribution is provided by a methodology that combines several distinct strategies to build actions proposals, so that the best can be chosen at each time, depending on the context and simulation circumstances. The choosing process includes reinforcement learning algorithms, a mechanism for negotiating contexts analysis, a mechanism for the management of the efficiency/effectiveness balance of the system, and a mechanism for competitor players' profiles definition.

Optimal generation scheduling of wind-CSP systems in day-ahead electricity markets

This paper presents a coordination approach to maximize the total profit of wind power systems coordinated with concentrated solar power systems, having molten-salt thermal energy storage. Both systems are effectively handled by mixed-integer linear programming in the approach, allowing enhancement on the operational during non-insolation periods. Transmission grid constraints and technical operating constraints on both systems are modeled to enable a true management support for the integration of renewable energy sources in day-ahead electricity markets. A representative case study based on real systems is considered to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach. © IFIP International Federation for Information Processing 2015.

Defining Electricity Tariffs Using the Knowledge About the Consumers Profiles in ELECON Project

The increasing importance of the integration of distributed generation and demand response in the power systems operation and planning, namely at lower voltage levels of distribution networks and in the competitive environment of electricity markets, leads us to the concept of smart grids. In both traditional and smart grid operation, non-technical losses are a great economic concern, which can be addressed. In this context, the ELECON project addresses the use of demand response contributions to the identification of non-technical losses. The present paper proposes a methodology to be used by Virtual Power Players (VPPs), which are entities able to aggregate distributed small-size resources, aiming to define the best electricity tariffs for several, clusters of consumers. A case study based on real consumption data demonstrates the application of the proposed methodology.

Scenarios Generation for Multi-Agent simulation of Electricity Markets based on Intelligent Data Analysis

This document presents a tool able to automatically gather data provided by real energy markets and to generate scenarios, capture and improve market players’ profiles and strategies by using knowledge discovery processes in databases supported by artificial intelligence techniques, data mining algorithms and machine learning methods. It provides the means for generating scenarios with different dimensions and characteristics, ensuring the representation of real and adapted markets, and their participating entities. The scenarios generator module enhances the MASCEM (Multi-Agent Simulator of Competitive Electricity Markets) simulator, endowing a more effective tool for decision support. The achievements from the implementation of the proposed module enables researchers and electricity markets’ participating entities to analyze data, create real scenarios and make experiments with them. On the other hand, applying knowledge discovery techniques to real data also allows the improvement of MASCEM agents’ profiles and strategies resulting in a better representation of real market players’ behavior. This work aims to improve the comprehension of electricity markets and the interactions among the involved entities through adequate multi-agent simulation.

Demonstration of the Multi-Agent Simulator of Competitive Electricity Markets

Electricity markets are complex environments with very particular characteristics. A critical issue concerns the constant changes they are subject to. This is a result of the electricity markets’ restructuring, performed so that the competitiveness could be increased, but with exponential implications in the increase of the complexity and unpredictability in those markets’ scope. The constant growth in markets unpredictability resulted in an amplified need for market intervenient entities in foreseeing market behavior. The need for understanding the market mechanisms and how the involved players’ interaction affects the outcomes of the markets, contributed to the growth of usage of simulation tools. Multi-agent based software is particularly well fitted to analyze dynamic and adaptive systems with complex interactions among its constituents, such as electricity markets. This paper presents the Multi-Agent System for Competitive Electricity Markets (MASCEM) – a simulator based on multi-agent technology that provides a realistic platform to simulate electricity markets, the numerous negotiation opportunities and the participating entities.

Reinforcement Learning Based on the Bayesian Theorem for Electricity Markets Decision Support

This paper presents the applicability of a reinforcement learning algorithm based on the application of the Bayesian theorem of probability. The proposed reinforcement learning algorithm is an advantageous and indispensable tool for ALBidS (Adaptive Learning strategic Bidding System), a multi-agent system that has the purpose of providing decision support to electricity market negotiating players. ALBidS uses a set of different strategies for providing decision support to market players. These strategies are used accordingly to their probability of success for each different context. The approach proposed in this paper uses a Bayesian network for deciding the most probably successful action at each time, depending on past events. The performance of the proposed methodology is tested using electricity market simulations in MASCEM (Multi-Agent Simulator of Competitive Electricity Markets). MASCEM provides the means for simulating a real electricity market environment, based on real data from real electricity market operators.

Data Extraction Tool to Analyse, Transform and Store Real Data from Electricity Markets

The study of electricity markets operation has been gaining an increasing importance in the last years, as result of the new challenges that the restructuring process produced. Currently, lots of information concerning electricity markets is available, as market operators provide, after a period of confidentiality, data regarding market proposals and transactions. These data can be used as source of knowledge to define realistic scenarios, which are essential for understanding and forecast electricity markets behavior. The development of tools able to extract, transform, store and dynamically update data, is of great importance to go a step further into the comprehension of electricity markets and of the behaviour of the involved entities. In this paper an adaptable tool capable of downloading, parsing and storing data from market operators’ websites is presented, assuring constant updating and reliability of the stored data.