Regions of rationality: Maps for bounded agents

An important problem in descriptive and prescriptive research in decision making is to identify regions of rationality, i.e., the areas for which heuristics are and are not effective. To map the contours of such regions, we derive probabilities that heuristics identify the best of m alternatives (m > 2) characterized by k attributes or cues (k > 1). The heuristics include a single variable (lexicographic), variations of elimination-by-aspects, equal weighting, hybrids of the preceding, and models exploiting dominance. We use twenty simulated and four empirical datasets for illustration. We further provide an overview by regressing heuristic performance on factors characterizing environments. Overall, sensible heuristics generally yield similar choices in many environments. However, selection of the appropriate heuristic can be important in some regions (e.g., if there is low inter-correlation among attributes/cues). Since our work assumes a hit or miss decision criterion, we conclude by outlining extensions for exploring the effects of different loss functions.

Asymmetric effects of monetary policy in the US: Positive vs. negative or big vs. small?

This paper reconsiders the empirical evidence on the asymmetricoutput effects of monetary policy. Asymmetric effects is a common feature ofmany theoretical models, and there are many different versions of suchasymmetries. We concentrate on the distinctions between positive andnegative money-supply changes, big and small changes in money-supply, andpossible combinations of the two asymmetries. Earlier research has foundempirical evidence in favor of the former of these in US data. Using M1 asthe monetary variable we find evidence in favor of neutrality of big shocksand non-neutrality of small shocks. The results may, however, be affected bystructual instability of M1 demand. Thus, we substitute M1 with the federalfunds rate. In these data we find that only small negative shocks affectreal aggregate activity. The results are interpreted in terms of menu-costmodels.

Full insurance, asymmetric information and genetic testing

This paper extends previous resuls on optimal insurance trading in the presence of a stock market that allows continuous asset trading and substantial personal heterogeneity, and applies those results in a context of asymmetric informationwith references to the role of genetic testing in insurance markets.We find a novel and surprising result under symmetric information:agents may optimally prefer to purchase full insurance despitethe presence of unfairly priced insurance contracts, and other assets which are correlated with insurance.Asymmetric information has a Hirschleifer-type effect whichcan be solved by suspending insurance trading. Nevertheless,agents can attain their first best allocations, which suggeststhat the practice of restricting insurance not to be contingenton genetic tests can be efficient.

Research joint ventures and optimal R&D policy with asymmetric information

When to allow Research Joint Ventures (RJVs) or not is an importantinstrument in the development of an optimal R&D policy. Theregulator, however, is unlikely to know all the relevant informationto regulate R&D optimally. The extent to which there existappropriability problems between the firms is one such variable thatis private information to the firms in the industry. In a duopolysetting we analyze the characteristics of a second-best R&D policywhere the government can either allow RJVs or not and give lump-sumsubsidies to the parties involved. The second-best R&D policy withoutsubsidies will either block some welfare improving RJVs or allow somewelfare reducing ones. With lump-sum subsidies, the second-best policytrades off the expected subsidy cost with allowing welfare decreasingRJVs or blocking welfare increasing ones.

Fiscal decentralization in Spain: An asymmetric transition to democracy

Asymmetric fiscal decentralization, by which we mean different fiscal arrangements between the central government and different groups of, or individual, lower-level governments, may be justified from an economic efficiency perspective. As argued by Tiebout (1956), Oates (1972) and others, a decentralized system of regional and local governments is better able to accommodate differences in tastes for public goods and services. This efficiency argument calls for decentralization of fiscal authority to regional and local governments, but not necessarily asymmetric decentralization. However, when the differences in tastes for public goods and services arise out of differences in history, culture and language across regions of a country, asymmetric treatment may be justified. History, culture and language may influence how a group of people (a region) views autonomy, independence and fiscal authority. Some regions may have had experience with autonomous government in the past, they may have a culture that is strongly reliant upon (or leery of) the central government, or they may be fearful of losing their separate languages if they do not have special arrangements. To accommodate differences in taste for independence, autonomy, and fiscal authority, it may be necessary to have different fiscal arrangements between the central government and the different regions comprising the country.

Endogenous bargaining power

We present a novel approach to N-person bargaining, based on the idea thatthe agreement reached in a negotiation is determined by how the directconflict resulting from disagreement would be resolved. Our basic buildingblock is the disagreement function, which maps each set of feasible outcomesinto a disagreement point. Using this function and a weak axiom basedon individual rationality we reach a unique solution: the agreement inthe shadow of conflict, ASC. This agreement may be construed as the limitof a sequence of partial agreements, each of which is reached as a functionof the parties relative power. We examine the connection between ASC andasymmetric Nash solutions. We show the connection between the power ofthe parties embodied in the ASC solution and the bias in the SWF thatwould select ASC as an asymmetric Nash solution.

Failure to collude in the presence of asymmetric information

In this paper, we design the optimal contract when two agents can collude under asymmetric information. They have correlated types, produce complementary inputs and are protected by limited liability. Therefore, a joint manipulation of reports allows them to internalize informational and productive externalities. We show that by taking advantage of the transaction costs created by asymmetric information, even though they collude, the principal can achieve the outcome without collusion regardless of the sign and the degree of correlation. In particular, the principal can implement a non-monotonic quantity schedule in a collusion-proof way while this is impossible if collusion occurs under complete information.

Optimal law enforcement under asymmetric information

In this paper, we focus on the problem created by asymmetric informationabout the enforcer's (agent's) costs associated to enforcement expenditure. This adverse selection problem affects optimal law enforcement because a low cost enforcer may conceal its information by imitating a high cost enforcer, and must then be given a compensation to be induced to reveal its true costs. The government faces a trade-off between minimizing the enforcer's compensation and maximizing the net surplus of harmful acts. As a consequence, the probability of apprehension and punishment is usually reduced leading to more offenses being committed. We show that asymmetry of information does not affect law enforcement as long as raising public funds is costless. The consideration of costly raising of public funds permits to establish the positive correlation between asymmetry of information between government and enforcers andthe crime rate.

Variability of apparently homogeneous soilscapes in São Paulo state, Brazil: II. quality of soil maps

The quality of semi-detailed (scale 1:100.000) soil maps and the utility of a taxonomically based legend were assessed by studying 33 apparently homogeneous fields with strongly weathered soils in two regions in São Paulo State: Araras and Assis. An independent data set of 395 auger sites was used to determine purity of soil mapping units and analysis of variance within and between mapping units and soil classification units. Twenty three soil profiles were studied in detail. The studied soil maps have a high purity for some legend criteria, such as B horizon type (> 90%) and soil texture class (> 80%). The purity for the "trophic character" (eutrophic, dystrophic, allic) was only 55% in Assis. It was 88% in Araras, where many soil units had been mapped as associations. In both regions, the base status of clay-textured soils was generally better than suggested by the maps. Analysis of variance showed that mapping was successful for "durable" soil characteristics such as clay content (> 80% of variance explained) and cation exchange capacity (≥ 50% of variance explained) of 0-20 and 60-80 cm layers. For soil characteristics that are easily modified by management, such as base saturation of the 0-20 cm layer, the maps had explained very little (< 15%) of the total variance in the study areas. Intermediate results were obtained for base saturation of the 60-80 cm layer (56% in Assis; 42% in Araras). Variance explained by taxonomic groupings that formed the basis for the legend of the soil maps was similar to, often even smaller than, variance explained by mapping units. The conclusion is that map boundaries have been very carefully located, but descriptions of mapping units could be improved. In future mappings, this could possibly be done at low cost by (a) bulk sampling to remove short range variation and enhance visualization of spatial patterns at distances > 100 m; (b) taking advantage of correlations between easily measured soil characteristics and chemical soil properties and, (c) unbending the link between legend criteria and a taxonomic system. The maps are well suited to obtain an impression of land suitability for high-input farming. Additional field work and data on former land use/management are necessary for the evaluation of chemical properties of surface horizons.

Extensions of maps defined on many fibres

Let S be a fibred surface. We prove that the existence of morphisms from non countably many fibres to curves implies, up to base change, the existence of a rational map from S to another surface fibred over the same base reflecting the properties of the original morphisms. Under some conditions of unicity base change is not needed and one recovers exactly the initial maps.

Mechanisms of spindle positioning during "Caenorhabditis elgans" asymmetric cell division

Résumé : Le positionnement correct du fuseau mitotique est crucial pour les divisions cellulaires asymétriques, car il gouverne le contrôle spatial de la division cellulaire et assure la ségrégation adéquate des déterminants cellulaires. Malgré leur importance, les mécanismes contrôlant le positionnement du fuseau mitotique sont encore mal compris. Chez l'embryon au stade une-cellule du nématode Caenorhabditis elegans, le fuseau mitotique est positionné de manière asymétrique durant l'anaphase grâce à l'action de générateurs de force situés au cortex cellulaire, et dont la nature était jusqu'alors indéterminée. Ces générateurs de force corticaux exercent une traction sur les microtubules astraux et sont dépendants de deux protéines Gα et de leurs protéines associées. Cette thèse traite de la nature de la machinerie responsable pour la génération des forces de tractions, ainsi que de son lien avec les protéines Gα et associées. Nous avons combiné des expériences de coupure par faisceau laser du fuseau mitotique avec le contrôle temporel de l'inactivation de gènes ou de l'exposition à des produits pharmacologiques. De cette manière, nous avons établi que la dynéine, un moteur se déplaçant vers l'extrémité négative des microtubules, ainsi que la dynamique des microtubules, sont toutes deux requises pour la génération efficace des forces de tractions. Nous avons démontré que les protéines Gα et leurs protéines associées GPR-1/2 et LIN-5 interagissent in vivo avec LIS-1, un composant du complexe de la dynéine. De plus, nous avons découvert que les protéines Gα, GPR-1/2 et LIN-5 promeuvent la présence du complexe de la dynéine au cortex cellulaire. Nos résultats suggèrent un mécanisme par lequel les protéines Gα permettent le recrutement cortical de GPR-1/2 et LIN-5, assurant ainsi la présence de la dynéine au cortex. Conjointement avec la dynamique des microtubules, ce mécanisme permet la génération des forces de tractions afin d'obtenir une division cellulaire correcte. Comme les mécanismes contrôlant le positionnement du fuseau mitotique et les divisions cellulaires asymétriques sont conservés au cours de l'évolution, nous espérons que les mécanismes élucidés par ce travail sont d'importance générale pour la génération de la diversité cellulaire durant le développement. De plus, ces mécanismes pourraient être applicables à d'autres divisions asymétriques, comme celle des cellules souches, dont le disfonctionnement peut entraîner la génération de cellules cancéreuses. Abstract : Proper spindle positioning is crucial for asymmetric cell division, because it controls spatial aspects of cell division and the correct inheritance of cell-fate determinants. However, the mechanisms governing spindle positioning remain incompletely understood. In the Caenorhabditis elegans one-cell stage embryo, the spindle becomes asymmetrically positioned during anaphase through the action of as-yet unidentified cortical force generators that pull on astral microtubules and that depend on two Gα proteins and associated proteins. This thesis addresses the nature of the force generation machinery and the link with the Gα and associated proteins. By performing spindle-severing experiments following temporally restricted gene inactivation and drug exposure, we established that microtubule dynamics and the minus-end directed motor dynein are both required for generating efficient pulling forces. We discovered that the Gα proteins and their associated proteins GPR-1/2 and LIN-5 interact in vivo with LIS-1, a component of the dynein complex. Moreover, we uncovered that LIN-5, GPR-1/2 and the Gα proteins promote the presence of the dynein complex at the cell cortex. Our findings suggest a mechanism by which the Gα proteins enable GPR-1/2 and LIN-5 recruitment to the cortex, thus ensuring the presence of cortical dynein. Together with microtubule dynamics, this allows pulling forces to be exerted and proper cell division to be achieved. Because the mechanisms of spindle positioning and asymmetric cell division are conserved across evolution, we expect the underlying mechanism uncovered here to be of broad significance for the generation of cell diversity during development. Moreover, this mechanism could be relevant for other asymmetric cell divisions, such as stem cell divisions, whose dysfunction may lead to the generation of cancer cells.

Specialisation in Europe and asymmetric shocks: potential risks of EMU

Most optimistic views, based on Optimum Currency Areas (OCA) literature, have concluded that the probability of asymmetric shocks to occur at anational level will tend to diminish in the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU)as a result of the intensification of the integration process during the most recent years. Therefore, since Economic Geography Theories predict a higherspecialisation of regions, it is expected that asymmetric shocks will increase.Previous studies have examined to what extent asymmetric shocks have been relevant in the past using, mainly, static measures of asymmetries such as the correlation coefficients between series of shocks previously calculated from astructural VAR model (Bayoumi and Eichengreen, 1992).In this paper, we study the evolution of manufacturing specific asymmetries in Europe from a dynamic point of view (applying the modelproposed by Haldane and Hall, 1991) in order to obtain new evidence about potential risks of EMU.