Asset pricing when risk sharing is limited by default: a theoretical framework

We study the asset pricing implications of an endowment economy when agents can default on contracts that would leave them otherwise worse off. We specialize and extend the environment studied by Kocherlakota (1995) and Kehoe and Levine (1993) to make it comparable to standard studies of asset pricillg. We completely charactize efficient allocations for several special cases. We illtroduce a competitive equilibrium with complete markets alld with elldogellous solvency constraints. These solvellcy constraints are such as to prevent default -at the cost of reduced risk sharing. We show a version of the classical welfare theorems for this equilibrium definition. We characterize the pricing kernel, alld compare it with the one for economies without participation constraints : interest rates are lower and risk premia can be bigger depending on the covariance of the idiosyncratic and aggregate shocks. Quantitative examples show that for reasonable parameter values the relevant marginal rates of substitution fali within the Hansen-Jagannathan bounds.

Asset float and speculative bubbles

We model the relationship between ftoat (the tradeable shares of an asset) and stock price bubbles. Investors trade a stock that initiaUy has a limited ftoat because of insider lock-up restrictions but the tradeable shares of which increase over time as these restrictions expire. A speculative bubble arises because investors, with heterogeneous beliefs due to overconfidence and facing short-sales constraints, anticipate the option to reseU the stock to buyers with even higher valuations. With limited risk absorption capacity, this resale option depends on ftoat as investors anticipate the change in asset supply over time and speculate over the degree of insider selling. Our model yields implications consistent with the behavior of internet stock prices during the late nineties, such as the bubble, share turnover and volatility decreasing with ftoat and stock prices tending to drop on the lock-up expiration date though it is known to aU in advance.

Temporary exchange rate-based stabilization programs under asset market segmentation

This paper analyses the welfare consequences of temporary exchange rate-based stabilization programs. Differently than previous papers, however, here we assume that only a fraction of households participates in asset market transactions. With this asset market segmentation assumption, the effects of temporary programs on welfare may change drastically. Households with access to the bonds market are able to protect themselves better from the changes in the inflation rate – although at the cost of a distortion in their consumption path. As a consequence, they may decrease their inflation tax burden – which would increase for the other group of households. By the other side, when these agents that lack the access to the asset markets are credit constrained, they may welcome the program, since the government Is temporally reducing the inflation tax they have to pay. The temporary program could end up benefiting both groups, what could help to understand their popularity.

Optimal provision of implicit and explicit incentives in asset management contracts

This paper investigates the importance of the fiow of funds as an implicit incetive provided by investors to portfolio managers in a two-period relationship. We show that the fiow of funds is a powerful incentive in an asset management contract. We build a binomial moral hazard model to explain the main trade-ofIs in the relationship between fiow, fees and performance. The main assumption is that efIort depend" on the combination of implicit and explicit incentives while the probability distrioutioll function of returns depends on efIort. In the case of full commitment, the investor's relevant trade-ofI is to give up expected return in the second period vis-à-vis to induce efIort in the first período The more concerned the investor is with today's payoff. the more willing he will be to give up expected return in the following periods. That is. in the second period, the investor penalizes observed low returns by withdrawing resources from non-performing portfolio managers. Besides, he pays performance fee when the observed excess return is positive. When commitment is not a plausible hypothesis, we consider that the investor also learns some symmetríc and imperfect information about the ability of the manager to generate positive excess returno In this case, observed returns reveal ability as well as efIort choices exerted by the portfolio manager. We show that implicit incentives can explain the fiow-performance relationship and, conversely, endogenous expected return determines incentives provision and define their optimal leveIs. We provide a numerical solution in Matlab that characterize these results.

Revamping asset quality to maximize income in office markets

We use a unique dataset of c. 2200 commercial towers located in the city of Sao Paulo from 2005:Q3 to 2014:Q3 to study the relationship between asset quality and potential income in different niches of the office market. Our evidence suggests a rent premium in the market for larger office space (corporate) and that building quality is more relevant in this segment. We hypothesize such difference is due to larger competition and commoditization in the market for smaller office space (office) as income in this segment tends to be insensible to different levels of asset quality when we control for spatial variation. We also find that rent premiums associated with building class are monotonically increasing, but not strictly positive across certain quality thresholds. Thus, landlords and developers should take into consideration the market niche and acceptable target building class levels when designing their investment plans in order to maximize income .

Options listing and the volatility of the underlying asset: a study on the derivative market function

Os mercados de derivativos são vistos com muita desconfiança por inúmeras pessoas. O trabalho analisa o efeito da introdução de opções sobre ações no mercado brasileiro buscando identificar uma outra justificativa para a existência destes mercados: a alteração no nível de risco dos ativos objetos destas opções. A evidência empírica encontrada neste mercado está de acordo com os resultados obtidos em outros mercados - a introdução de opções é benéfica para o investidor posto que reduz a volatilidade do ativo objeto. Existe também uma tênue indicação de que a volatilidade se torna mais estocástica com a introdução das opções.

Asset accumulation by the middle class and the poor in Latin America: political economy and governance dimensions

Includes bibliography

Asset productivity at container terminals in Latin America and the Caribbean: 2005-2013

This issue of the FAL Bulletin shows productivity trends at container terminals in Latin America and the Caribbean during the period from 2005 to 2013, comparing them to the trend of earlier years (2000 to 2004). One of the conclusions of the study is that most terminals in the region have improved their quay productivity in recent years, although there are large differences between the three container terminal size categories analysed. However, the author identifies a number of challenges still to be met at the region’s ports.

Asset management of wastewater networks

Asset Management (AM) is a set of procedures operable at the strategic-tacticaloperational level, for the management of the physical asset’s performance, associated risks and costs within its whole life-cycle. AM combines the engineering, managerial and informatics points of view. In addition to internal drivers, AM is driven by the demands of customers (social pull) and regulators (environmental mandates and economic considerations). AM can follow either a top-down or a bottom-up approach. Considering rehabilitation planning at the bottom-up level, the main issue would be to rehabilitate the right pipe at the right time with the right technique. Finding the right pipe may be possible and practicable, but determining the timeliness of the rehabilitation and the choice of the techniques adopted to rehabilitate is a bit abstruse. It is a truism that rehabilitating an asset too early is unwise, just as doing it late may have entailed extra expenses en route, in addition to the cost of the exercise of rehabilitation per se. One is confronted with a typical ‘Hamlet-isque dilemma’ – ‘to repair or not to repair’; or put in another way, ‘to replace or not to replace’. The decision in this case is governed by three factors, not necessarily interrelated – quality of customer service, costs and budget in the life cycle of the asset in question. The goal of replacement planning is to find the juncture in the asset’s life cycle where the cost of replacement is balanced by the rising maintenance costs and the declining level of service. System maintenance aims at improving performance and maintaining the asset in good working condition for as long as possible. Effective planning is used to target maintenance activities to meet these goals and minimize costly exigencies. The main objective of this dissertation is to develop a process-model for asset replacement planning. The aim of the model is to determine the optimal pipe replacement year by comparing, temporally, the annual operating and maintenance costs of the existing asset and the annuity of the investment in a new equivalent pipe, at the best market price. It is proposed that risk cost provide an appropriate framework to decide the balance between investment for replacing or operational expenditures for maintaining an asset. The model describes a practical approach to estimate when an asset should be replaced. A comprehensive list of criteria to be considered is outlined, the main criteria being a visà- vis between maintenance and replacement expenditures. The costs to maintain the assets should be described by a cost function related to the asset type, the risks to the safety of people and property owing to declining condition of asset, and the predicted frequency of failures. The cost functions reflect the condition of the existing asset at the time the decision to maintain or replace is taken: age, level of deterioration, risk of failure. The process model is applied in the wastewater network of Oslo, the capital city of Norway, and uses available real-world information to forecast life-cycle costs of maintenance and rehabilitation strategies and support infrastructure management decisions. The case study provides an insight into the various definitions of ‘asset lifetime’ – service life, economic life and physical life. The results recommend that one common value for lifetime should not be applied to the all the pipelines in the stock for investment planning in the long-term period; rather it would be wiser to define different values for different cohorts of pipelines to reduce the uncertainties associated with generalisations for simplification. It is envisaged that more criteria the municipality is able to include, to estimate maintenance costs for the existing assets, the more precise will the estimation of the expected service life be. The ability to include social costs enables to compute the asset life, not only based on its physical characterisation, but also on the sensitivity of network areas to social impact of failures. The type of economic analysis is very sensitive to model parameters that are difficult to determine accurately. The main value of this approach is the effort to demonstrate that it is possible to include, in decision-making, factors as the cost of the risk associated with a decline in level of performance, the level of this deterioration and the asset’s depreciation rate, without looking at age as the sole criterion for making decisions regarding replacements.

Le scelte di investimento dei fondi pensioni italiani: un’analisi degli asset immobiliari

Il lavoro persegue l’obiettivo generale di indagare sulle scelte di investimento dei fondi pensione italiani. Per giungere al suddetto obiettivo il lavoro si articola in quattro capitoli principali corredati da premessa e conclusioni. Il primo capitolo si preoccupa di analizzare in quale modo le scelte operate dal legislatore italiano abbiano influenzato e influenzino le politiche di investimento dei fondi pensione. E’ indubbio, infatti, che l’intervento del legislatore abbia un forte ascendente sull’operatività dei fondi e possa limitarne o, viceversa, agevolarne l’attività. Alla luce di queste considerazioni, il secondo capitolo mira ad analizzare nel concreto l’influenza delle scelte operate dal legislatore sullo sviluppo del mercato dei fondi pensione italiani. In sostanza, l’obiettivo è quello di fornire informazioni circa il mercato italiano dei fondi pensione sviluppatosi in conseguenza alla normativa testé presentata. Il successivo capitolo, il terzo, propone un’analisi della letteratura che, nel contesto nazionale ed internazionale, ha analizzato la tematica dei fondi pensione. Più nel dettaglio, si propone una disamina dei riferimenti letterari che, affrontando il problema della gestione finanziaria dei fondi pensione, trattano delle politiche e delle scelte di investimento operate da questi. Il quarto capitolo riguarda un’analisi empirica mirata ad analizzare le politiche di investimento dei fondi pensione, in particolare quelle relative agli investimenti alternativi e soprattutto, tra questi, quelli immobiliari. L’obiettivo generale perseguito è quello di analizzare la composizione del patrimonio dei fondi appartenenti al campione considerato e ricavarne indicazioni circa le scelte manageriali operate dai fondi, nonché trarre indicazioni circa lo spazio riservato e/o riservabile alle asset class alternative, soprattutto a quelle di tipo immobiliare. Si evidenzia, infatti, che la verifica presentata riguarda prevalentemente gli investimenti immobiliari che rappresentano nella realtà italiana l’alternative class maggiormente diffusa. L’analisi si concentra, anche se in modo inferiore e con un approccio quasi esclusivamente qualitativo, su altre asset class alternative (hedge fund e private equity). Si precisa, inoltre, che la volontà di focalizzare la verifica sugli alternative investment limita l’analisi ai soli fondi pensione preesistenti che, ad oggi, rappresentano l’unica categoria alla quale è consentito effettuare investimenti di tipo alternativo. A differenza dei fondi di nuova generazione, tali fondi, infatti, non sono sottoposti a limitazioni nell’attività di investimento e, almeno in linea teorica, essi possono optare senza alcuna restrizione per l’asset allocation ritenuta più appropriata Tre sono le domande di ricerca a cui l’analisi proposta mira a dare risposta: Quale è la dimensione e la composizione del portafoglio dei fondi pensione preesistenti? Quale è la dimensione e la tipologia di investimento immobiliare all’interno del portafoglio dei fondi pensione preesistenti? Esiste uno “spazio” ulteriore per gli investimenti immobiliari e/o per altri alternative investment nel portafoglio dei fondi pensione preesistenti? L’analisi è condotta su un campione di dieci fondi preesistenti, che rappresenta il 60% dell’universo di riferimento (dei 29 fondi pensione preesistenti che investono in immobiliare) e la metodologia utilizzata è quella della case study. Le dieci case study, una per ogni fondo preesistente analizzato, sono condotte e presentate secondo uno schema quanto più standard e si basano su varie tipologie di informazioni reperite da tre differenti fonti. 2 La prima fonte informativa utilizzata è rappresentata dai bilanci o rendiconti annuali dei fondi analizzati. A questi si aggiungono i risultati di un’intervista svolta nei mesi di gennaio e febbraio 2008, ai direttori generali o ai direttori dell’area investimento dei fondi. Le interviste aggiungono informazioni prevalentemente di tipo qualitativo, in grado di descrivere le scelte manageriali operate dai fondi in tema di politica di investimento. Infine, laddove presente, sono state reperite informazioni anche dai siti internet che in taluni casi i fondi possiedono. Dalle case study condotte è possibile estrapolare una serie di risultati, che consentono di dare risposta alle tre domande di ricerca poste in precedenza. Relativamente alla prima domanda, è stato possibile stabilire che il portafoglio dei fondi pensione preesistenti analizzati cresce nel tempo. Esso si compone per almeno un terzo di titoli di debito, prevalentemente titoli di stato, e per un altro terzo di investimenti immobiliari di vario tipo. Il restante terzo è composto da altre asset class, prevalentemente investimenti in quote di OICR. Per quanto riguarda la politica d’investimento, si rileva che mediamente essa è caratterizzata da un’alta avversione al rischio e pochissimi sono i casi in cui i fondi prevedono linee di investimento aggressive. Relativamente alla seconda domanda, si osserva che la dimensione dell’asset class immobiliare all’interno del portafoglio raggiunge una quota decrescente nell’arco di tempo considerato, seppur rilevante. Al suo interno prevalgono nettamente gli investimenti diretti in immobili. Seguono le partecipazioni in società immobiliari. L’analisi ha permesso, poi, di approfondire il tema degli investimenti immobiliari consentendo di trarre indicazioni circa le loro caratteristiche. Infine, relativamente all’ultima domanda di ricerca, i dati ottenuti, soprattutto per mezzo delle interviste, permettono di stabilire che, almeno con riferimento al campione analizzato, l’investimento immobiliare perde quota e in parte interesse. Questo risulta vero soprattutto relativamente agli investimenti immobiliari di tipo diretto. I fondi con patrimoni immobiliari rilevanti, infatti, sono per la totalità nel mezzo di processi di dismissione degli asset, mirati, non tanto all’eliminazione dell’asset class, ma piuttosto ad una riduzione della stessa, conformemente anche a quanto richiesto dalle recenti normative. Le interviste hanno messo in luce, tuttavia, che a fronte di un’esigenza generale di contentere la quota investita, l’asset immobiliare è considerato positivamente soprattutto in termini di opportunità di diversificazione di portafoglio e buoni rendimenti nel lungo periodo. I fondi appaiono interessati in modo particolare a diversificare il portafoglio immobiliare, dismettendo parte degli asset detenuti direttamente e aumentando al contrario le altre tipologie di investimento immobiliare, soprattutto quote di OICR immobiliari. Altrettanto positivi i giudizi relativi alle altre asset class alternative. Pur restando ancora limitato il totale delle risorse destinate, tali investimenti sono percepiti come una buona opportunità di diversificazione del portafoglio. In generale, si è rilevato che, anche laddove l’investimento non è presente o è molto ridotto, nel breve periodo è intenzione del management aumentare la quota impiegata.

Securitization and Special Purpose Vehicles in an International Setting: a Systemic View

The present work tries to display a comprehensive and comparative study of the different legal and regulatory problems involved in international securitization transactions. First, an introduction to securitization is provided, with the basic elements of the transaction, followed by the different varieties of it, including dynamic securitization and synthetic securitization structures. Together with this introduction to the intricacies of the structure, a insight into the influence of securitization in the financial and economic crisis of 2007-2009 is provided too; as well as an overview of the process of regulatory competition and cooperation that constitutes the framework for the international aspects of securitization. The next Chapter focuses on the aspects that constitute the foundations of structured finance: the inception of the vehicle, and the transfer of risks associated to the securitized assets, with particular emphasis on the validity of those elements, and how a securitization transaction could be threatened at its root. In this sense, special importance is given to the validity of the trust as an instrument of finance, to the assignment of future receivables or receivables in block, and to the importance of formalities for the validity of corporations, trusts, assignments, etc., and the interaction of such formalities contained in general corporate, trust and assignment law with those contemplated under specific securitization regulations. Then, the next Chapter (III) focuses on creditor protection aspects. As such, we provide some insights on the debate on the capital structure of the firm, and its inadequacy to assess the financial soundness problems inherent to securitization. Then, we proceed to analyze the importance of rules on creditor protection in the context of securitization. The corollary is in the rules in case of insolvency. In this sense, we divide the cases where a party involved in the transaction goes bankrupt, from those where the transaction itself collapses. Finally, we focus on the scenario where a substance over form analysis may compromise some of the elements of the structure (notably the limited liability of the sponsor, and/or the transfer of assets) by means of veil piercing, substantive consolidation, or recharacterization theories. Once these elements have been covered, the next Chapters focus on the regulatory aspects involved in the transaction. Chapter IV is more referred to “market” regulations, i.e. those concerned with information disclosure and other rules (appointment of the indenture trustee, and elaboration of a rating by a rating agency) concerning the offering of asset-backed securities to the public. Chapter V, on the other hand, focuses on “prudential” regulation of the entity entrusted with securitizing assets (the so-called Special Purpose vehicle), and other entities involved in the process. Regarding the SPV, a reference is made to licensing requirements, restriction of activities and governance structures to prevent abuses. Regarding the sponsor of the transaction, a focus is made on provisions on sound originating practices, and the servicing function. Finally, we study accounting and banking regulations, including the Basel I and Basel II Frameworks, which determine the consolidation of the SPV, and the de-recognition of the securitized asset from the originating company’s balance-sheet, as well as the posterior treatment of those assets, in particular by banks. Chapters VI-IX are concerned with liability matters. Chapter VI is an introduction to the different sources of liability. Chapter VII focuses on the liability by the SPV and its management for the information supplied to investors, the management of the asset pool, and the breach of loyalty (or fiduciary) duties. Chapter VIII rather refers to the liability of the originator as a result of such information and statements, but also as a result of inadequate and reckless originating or servicing practices. Chapter IX finally focuses on third parties entrusted with the soundness of the transaction towards the market, the so-called gatekeepers. In this respect, we make special emphasis on the liability of indenture trustees, underwriters and rating agencies. Chapters X and XI focus on the international aspects of securitization. Chapter X contains a conflicts of laws analysis of the different aspects of structured finance. In this respect, a study is made of the laws applicable to the vehicle, to the transfer of risks (either by assignment or by means of derivatives contracts), to liability issues; and a study is also made of the competent jurisdiction (and applicable law) in bankruptcy cases; as well as in cases where a substance-over-form is performed. Then, special attention is also devoted to the role of financial and securities regulations; as well as to their territorial limits, and extraterritoriality problems involved. Chapter XI supplements the prior Chapter, for it analyzes the limits to the States’ exercise of regulatory power by the personal and “market” freedoms included in the US Constitution or the EU Treaties. A reference is also made to the (still insufficient) rules from the WTO Framework, and their significance to the States’ recognition and regulation of securitization transactions.

Scenari finanziari e portafogli ottimi: modelli di previsione e strategie per l'asset allocation tattica

Le scelte di asset allocation costituiscono un problema ricorrente per ogni investitore. Quest’ultimo è continuamente impegnato a combinare diverse asset class per giungere ad un investimento coerente con le proprie preferenze. L’esigenza di supportare gli asset manager nello svolgimento delle proprie mansioni ha alimentato nel tempo una vasta letteratura che ha proposto numerose strategie e modelli di portfolio construction. Questa tesi tenta di fornire una rassegna di alcuni modelli innovativi di previsione e di alcune strategie nell’ambito dell’asset allocation tattica, per poi valutarne i risvolti pratici. In primis verificheremo la sussistenza di eventuali relazioni tra la dinamica di alcune variabili macroeconomiche ed i mercati finanziari. Lo scopo è quello di individuare un modello econometrico capace di orientare le strategie dei gestori nella costruzione dei propri portafogli di investimento. L’analisi prende in considerazione il mercato americano, durante un periodo caratterizzato da rapide trasformazioni economiche e da un’elevata volatilità dei prezzi azionari. In secondo luogo verrà esaminata la validità delle strategie di trading momentum e contrarian nei mercati futures, in particolare quelli dell’Eurozona, che ben si prestano all’implementazione delle stesse, grazie all’assenza di vincoli sulle operazioni di shorting ed ai ridotti costi di transazione. Dall’indagine emerge che entrambe le anomalie si presentano con carattere di stabilità. I rendimenti anomali permangono anche qualora vengano utilizzati i tradizionali modelli di asset pricing, quali il CAPM, il modello di Fama e French e quello di Carhart. Infine, utilizzando l’approccio EGARCH-M, verranno formulate previsioni sulla volatilità dei rendimenti dei titoli appartenenti al Dow Jones. Quest’ultime saranno poi utilizzate come input per determinare le views da inserire nel modello di Black e Litterman. I risultati ottenuti, evidenziano, per diversi valori dello scalare tau, extra rendimenti medi del new combined vector superiori al vettore degli extra rendimenti di equilibrio di mercato, seppur con livelli più elevati di rischio.