Developing a framework for make-or-buy decisions

The make-or-buy question represents a fundamental dilemma faced by many companies. Companies have finite resources and cannot always afford to have all manufacturing technologies in-house. This has resulted in an increasing awareness of the importance of make-or-buy decisions. This paper reports on the development of a make-or-buy framework to address the make-or-buy decision for either a specific individual part or family of parts. Firstly, a literature review of the principal make-or-buy approaches is discussed. Secondly, the development of a make-or-buy framework is described and the framework is explained and illustrated using case studies. Thirdly, the operationalisation of the framework is outlined. The paper concludes with a discussion of its contribution to both the academic understanding of the subject, and the improvement of industrial practice.

Value roadmapping: A structured approach for early stage technology investment decisions

Deciding to invest in early stage technologies is one of the most important tasks of technology management and arguably also the most uncertain. It assumes a particular significance in the rise of technology companies in emerging economies, which have to make appropriate investment decisions. Technology managers already have a wide range of methods and tools at their disposal, but these are mostly focussed on quantitative measures such as discounted cash flow and real options techniques. However, in the early stages of technology development there seems to be a lot of dissatisfaction with these techniques as there appears to be a lack of accuracy with respect to the underlying assumptions that these models require. In order to complement these models this paper will discuss an alternative approach that we call value road-mapping. By adapting roadmapping techniques the potential value streams of early stages technologies can be plotted and hence a clearer consensus based picture of the future potential of new technologies emerges. Roadmapping is a workshop-based process bringing together multifunctional perspectives, and supporting communication in particular between technical and commercial groups. The study is work in progress and is based on a growing number of cases. (c) 2006 PICMET.

Strategies for product recovery decisions

Product recovery is beset by uncertainty regarding the quality of end-of-life (EOL) products, and in order to ascertain the reusability of these products, they have to undergo expensive tests. This undermines the profitability of the recovery process. The key to improve the effectiveness of product recovery is to improve the quality of information available before testing. Emerging data capture technologies can significantly improve the availability of information. However, in order to maximise the potential of these technologies, appropriate decision-making algorithms that exploit such information must be developed. We model the recovery process using a decision-theoretic approach, and derive strategies to ascertain the reusability of EOL products, and also to decide when tests are beneficial. We show that improving the quality of information leads to increase in effectiveness of the recovery process by reducing the need for tests. Copyright © 2009 Inderscience Enterprises Ltd.

Prices need no preferences: social trends determine decisions in experimental markets for pain relief.

OBJECTIVE: A standard view in health economics is that, although there is no market that determines the "prices" for health states, people can nonetheless associate health states with monetary values (or other scales, such as quality adjusted life year [QALYs] and disability adjusted life year [DALYs]). Such valuations can be used to shape health policy, and a major research challenge is to elicit such values from people; creating experimental "markets" for health states is a theoretically attractive way to address this. We explore the possibility that this framework may be fundamentally flawed-because there may not be any stable values to be revealed. Instead, perhaps people construct ad hoc values, influenced by contextual factors, such as the observed decisions of others. METHOD: The participants bid to buy relief from equally painful electrical shocks to the leg and arm in an experimental health market based on an interactive second-price auction. Thirty subjects were randomly assigned to two experimental conditions where the bids by "others" were manipulated to follow increasing or decreasing price trends for one, but not the other, pain. After the auction, a preference test asked the participants to choose which pain they prefer to experience for a longer duration. RESULTS: Players remained indifferent between the two pain-types throughout the auction. However, their bids were differentially attracted toward what others bid for each pain, with overbidding during decreasing prices and underbidding during increasing prices. CONCLUSION: Health preferences are dissociated from market prices, which are strongly referenced to others' choices. This suggests that the price of health care in a free-market has the capacity to become critically detached from people's underlying preferences.

Cortical substrates for exploratory decisions in humans.

Decision making in an uncertain environment poses a conflict between the opposing demands of gathering and exploiting information. In a classic illustration of this 'exploration-exploitation' dilemma, a gambler choosing between multiple slot machines balances the desire to select what seems, on the basis of accumulated experience, the richest option, against the desire to choose a less familiar option that might turn out more advantageous (and thereby provide information for improving future decisions). Far from representing idle curiosity, such exploration is often critical for organisms to discover how best to harvest resources such as food and water. In appetitive choice, substantial experimental evidence, underpinned by computational reinforcement learning (RL) theory, indicates that a dopaminergic, striatal and medial prefrontal network mediates learning to exploit. In contrast, although exploration has been well studied from both theoretical and ethological perspectives, its neural substrates are much less clear. Here we show, in a gambling task, that human subjects' choices can be characterized by a computationally well-regarded strategy for addressing the explore/exploit dilemma. Furthermore, using this characterization to classify decisions as exploratory or exploitative, we employ functional magnetic resonance imaging to show that the frontopolar cortex and intraparietal sulcus are preferentially active during exploratory decisions. In contrast, regions of striatum and ventromedial prefrontal cortex exhibit activity characteristic of an involvement in value-based exploitative decision making. The results suggest a model of action selection under uncertainty that involves switching between exploratory and exploitative behavioural modes, and provide a computationally precise characterization of the contribution of key decision-related brain systems to each of these functions.

Decisions about decisions.

A major puzzle of decision making is how the brain decides which decision system to use at any one time. In this issue of Neuron, Lee et al. (2014) provide a theoretical, behavioral, and neurobiological account of a prefrontal reliability-based arbitration system.

INFORMATION VISUALIZATION TO SUPPORT MANAGEMENT DECISIONS

Information visualization can accelerate perception, provide insight and control, and harness this flood of valuable data to gain a competitive advantage in making business decisions. Although such a statement seems to be obvious, there is a lack in the literature of practical evidence of the benefit of information visualization. The main contribution of this paper is to illustrate how, for a major European apparel retailer, the visualization of performance information plays a critical role in improving business decisions and in extracting insights from Redio Frequency Idetification (RFID)-based performance measures. In this paper, we identify - based on a literature review - three fundamental managerial functions of information visualization, namely as: a communication medium, a knowledge management means, and a decision-support instrument. Then, we provide - based on real industrial case evidence - how information visualization supports business decision-making. Several examples are provided to evidence the benefit of information visualization through its three identified managerial functions. We find that - depending on the way performance information is shaped, communicated, and made interactive - it not only helps decision making, but also offers a means of knowledge creation, as well as an appropriate communication channel. © 2014 World Scientific Publishing Company.

Curriculum: directions, decisions and debate.

The purpose of this paper is to provide an overview of the factors which may effect, stimulate or be the cause of curriculum changes in higher education (HE) in Scotland. This overview leads to a series of questions which could be used to encourage debate within and across institutions on strategic developments, which may enhance and inform the development of and support for the curriculum. The paper will begin by offering a definition of the term 'curriculum' before identifying the current areas of influence on how the curriculum, in its broadest sense, is shaped and delivered. This paper will provide an outline of some of the different approaches to the design and delivery of the curriculum which enhance the student experience in Scottish higher education, but which will of course have a wider relevance to HE in the UK and perhaps beyond.