Quantifying uncertainty in critical loads: (B) acidity mass balance critical loads on a sensitive site

This paper reports an uncertainty analysis of critical loads for acid deposition for a site in southern England, using the Steady State Mass Balance Model. The uncertainty bounds, distribution type and correlation structure for each of the 18 input parameters was considered explicitly, and overall uncertainty estimated by Monte Carlo methods. Estimates of deposition uncertainty were made from measured data and an atmospheric dispersion model, and hence the uncertainty in exceedance could also be calculated. The uncertainties of the calculated critical loads were generally much lower than those of the input parameters due to a "compensation of errors" mechanism - coefficients of variation ranged from 13% for CLmaxN to 37% for CL(A). With 1990 deposition, the probability that the critical load was exceeded was > 0.99; to reduce this probability to 0.50, a 63% reduction in deposition is required; to 0.05, an 82% reduction. With 1997 deposition, which was lower than that in 1990, exceedance probabilities declined and uncertainties in exceedance narrowed as deposition uncertainty had less effect. The parameters contributing most to the uncertainty in critical loads were weathering rates, base cation uptake rates, and choice of critical chemical value, indicating possible research priorities. However, the different critical load parameters were to some extent sensitive to different input parameters. The application of such probabilistic results to environmental regulation is discussed.

Initial results from Phase 2 of the international urban energy balance model comparison

Urban land surface schemes have been developed to model the distinct features of the urban surface and the associated energy exchange processes. These models have been developed for a range of purposes and make different assumptions related to the inclusion and representation of the relevant processes. Here, the first results of Phase 2 from an international comparison project to evaluate 32 urban land surface schemes are presented. This is the first large-scale systematic evaluation of these models. In four stages, participants were given increasingly detailed information about an urban site for which urban fluxes were directly observed. At each stage, each group returned their models' calculated surface energy balance fluxes. Wide variations are evident in the performance of the models for individual fluxes. No individual model performs best for all fluxes. Providing additional information about the surface generally results in better performance. However, there is clear evidence that poor choice of parameter values can cause a large drop in performance for models that otherwise perform well. As many models do not perform well across all fluxes, there is need for caution in their application, and users should be aware of the implications for applications and decision making.

The influence of winter oilseed rape (Brassica napus ssp. oleifera var. biennis) cultivar and grass genotype on the competitive balance between crop and grass weeds

Four experiments conducted over three seasons (2002–05) at the Crops Research Unit, University of Reading, investigated effects of canopy management of autumn sown oilseed rape (Brassica napus L. ssp. oleifera var. biennis (DC.) Metzg.) on competition with grass weeds. Emphasis was placed on the effect of the crop on the weeds. Rape canopy size was manipulated using sowing date, seed rate and the application of autumn fertilizer. Lolium multiflorum Lam., L.rboucheanum Kunth and Alopecurus myosuroides Huds. were sown as indicative grass weeds. The effects of sowing date, seed rate and autumn nitrogen on crop competitive ability were correlated with rape biomass and fractional interception of photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) by the rape floral layer, to the extent that by spring there was good evidence of crop: weed replacement. An increase in seed rate up to the highest plant densities tested increased both rape biomass and competitiveness, e.g. in 2002/3, L. multiflorum head density was reduced from 539 to 245 heads/m2 and spikelet density from 13 170 to 5960 spikelets/m2 when rape plant density was increased from 16 to 81 plants/m2. Spikelets/head of Lolium spp. was little affected by rape seed rate, but the length of heads of A. myosuroides was reduced by 9%when plant density was increased from 29–51 plants/m2. Autumn nitrogen increased rape biomass and reduced L. multiflorum head density (415 and 336 heads/m2 without and with autumn nitrogen, respectively) and spikelet density (9990 and 8220 spikelets/m2 without and with autumn nitrogen, respectively). The number of spikelets/head was not significantly affected by autumn nitrogen. Early sowing could increase biomass and competitiveness, but poor crop establishment sometimes overrode the effect. Where crop and weed establishment was similar for both sowing dates, a 2-week delay (i.e. early September to mid-September) increased L. multiflorum head density from 226 to 633 heads/m2 and spikelet density from 5780 to 15 060 spikelets/m2.

Discrete demand side control performance under dynamic building simulation: a heat pump application

This study presents the findings of applying a Discrete Demand Side Control (DDSC) approach to the space heating of two case study buildings. High and low tolerance scenarios are implemented on the space heating controller to assess the impact of DDSC upon buildings with different thermal capacitances, light-weight and heavy-weight construction. Space heating is provided by an electric heat pump powered from a wind turbine, with a back-up electrical network connection in the event of insufficient wind being available when a demand occurs. Findings highlight that thermal comfort is maintained within an acceptable range while the DDSC controller maintains the demand/supply balance. Whilst it is noted that energy demand increases slightly, as this is mostly supplied from the wind turbine, this is of little significance and hence a reduction in operating costs and carbon emissions is still attained.

The effect of the equivalent-weights particle filter on dynamical balance in a primitive equation model

The disadvantage of the majority of data assimilation schemes is the assumption that the conditional probability density function of the state of the system given the observations [posterior probability density function (PDF)] is distributed either locally or globally as a Gaussian. The advantage, however, is that through various different mechanisms they ensure initial conditions that are predominantly in linear balance and therefore spurious gravity wave generation is suppressed. The equivalent-weights particle filter is a data assimilation scheme that allows for a representation of a potentially multimodal posterior PDF. It does this via proposal densities that lead to extra terms being added to the model equations and means the advantage of the traditional data assimilation schemes, in generating predominantly balanced initial conditions, is no longer guaranteed. This paper looks in detail at the impact the equivalent-weights particle filter has on dynamical balance and gravity wave generation in a primitive equation model. The primary conclusions are that (i) provided the model error covariance matrix imposes geostrophic balance, then each additional term required by the equivalent-weights particle filter is also geostrophically balanced; (ii) the relaxation term required to ensure the particles are in the locality of the observations has little effect on gravity waves and actually induces a reduction in gravity wave energy if sufficiently large; and (iii) the equivalent-weights term, which leads to the particles having equivalent significance in the posterior PDF, produces a change in gravity wave energy comparable to the stochastic model error. Thus, the scheme does not produce significant spurious gravity wave energy and so has potential for application in real high-dimensional geophysical applications.

Study on the application of cool paintings for the passive cooling of existing buildings in Mediterranean climates

Building roofs play a very important role in the energy balance of buildings, especially in summer, when they are hit by a rather high solar irradiance. Depending on the type of finishing layer, roofs can absorb a great amount of heat and reach quite high temperatures on their outermost surface, which determines significant room overheating. However, the use of highly reflective cool materials can help to maintain low outer surface temperatures; this practice may improve indoor thermal comfort and reduce the cooling energy need during the hot season.This technology is currently well known and widely used in the USA, while receiving increasing attention in Europe. In order to investigate the effectiveness of cool roofs as a passive strategy for passive cooling in moderately hot climates, this paper presents the numerical results of a case study based on the dynamic thermal analysis of an existing office building in Catania (southern Italy, Mediterranean area). The results show how the application of a cool paint on the roof can enhance the thermal comfort of the occupants by reducing the operative temperatures of the rooms and to reduce the overall energy needs of the building for space heating and cooling.

Literary Love Making in Nicholas Sparks Novels: Finding the Balance Between the Writer's Life and Writer's Work in Bestselling Romantic Love

For almost a decade now Nicholas Sparks has been writing love stories. Not only has he been publishing his stories, but they have received high acclaim in each of their installments. Several of his novels have been made into major motion pictures and increased his popularity quite significantly. His status as a successful romantic fiction writer is undeniable, but the question is, why? What is it about Nicholas Sparks that makes his novels so engaging, and personally, what do I need to do as an aspiring novelist to try and acquire the same literary status? Sparks’s novels reach readers at a number of different levels, thus giving them appeal no matter the intellectual intent of the reader. Theoretically, Sparks engages reader response techniques as well as formalist processes such as “habitualization” and “defamiliarization,” while also developing engaging plot lines that represent many of the experiences from his own life. His writing is not only academically redeemable, but it is also creatively stimulating; between the two, Sparks represents the thunder and lightning combination all writers strive for while trying to achieve literary success. This project also offers a creative element in which I attempt to exemplify many of the traits discussed in the analytical sections of this document, by recreating them in a creative, fictitious fashion. Themes such as: motion versus stasis, life versus death, and the ordinary versus the extraordinary all exist within the narrative structure of my short story “Trip to Fall.” Besides these thematic elements, the creative section strives to represent the balance Sparks achieves between the experiences of his own life and the fictitious world he creates. Overall, this project delves into the life of Nicholas Sparks to better understand the inspiration for his writing at the level of form as well as content, while also paying tribute to Sparks’s style through a representation of his work in my own words.

Literary love making in Nicholas Sparks novels: Finding the balance between the writer’s life and the writer’s work in bestselling Romantic Literature

For almost a decade now Nicholas Sparks has been writing love stories. Not only has he been publishing his stories, but they have received high acclaim in each of their installments. Several of his novels have been made into major motion pictures and increased his popularity quite significantly. His status as a successful romantic fiction writer is undeniable, but the question is, why? What is it about Nicholas Sparks that makes his novels so engaging, and personally, what do I need to do as an aspiring novelist to try and acquire the same literary status? Sparks’s novels reach readers at a number of different levels, thus giving them appeal no matter the intellectual intent of the reader. Theoretically, Sparks engages reader response techniques as well as formalist processes such as “habitualization” and “defamiliarization,” while also developing engaging plot lines that represent many of the experiences from his own life. His writing is not only academically redeemable, but it is also creatively stimulating; between the two, Sparks represents the thunder and lightning combination all writers strive for while trying to achieve literary success. This project also offers a creative element in which I attempt to exemplify many of the traits discussed in the analytical sections of this document, by recreating them in a creative, fictitious fashion. Themes such as: motion versus stasis, life versus death, and the ordinary versus the extraordinary all exist within the narrative structure of my short story “Trip to Fall.” Besides these thematic elements, the creative section strives to represent the balance Sparks achieves between the experiences of his own life and the fictitious world he creates. Overall, this project delves into the life of Nicholas Sparks to better understand the inspiration for his writing at the level of form as well as content, while also paying tribute to Sparks’s style through a representation of his work in my own words.

Investigating The Sources Of Fresh Water Affecting The Hydrological Balance Of Lakes Enriquillo And Azuei (Hispaniola) – Data Analysis

The Enriquillo and Azuei are saltwater lakes located in a closed water basin in the southwestern region of the island of La Hispaniola, these have been experiencing dramatic changes in total lake-surface area coverage during the period 1980-2012. The size of Lake Enriquillo presented a surface area of approximately 276 km2 in 1984, gradually decreasing to 172 km2 in 1996. The surface area of the lake reached its lowest point in the satellite observation record in 2004, at 165 km2. Then the recent growth of the lake began reaching its 1984 size by 2006. Based on surface area measurement for June and July 2013, Lake Enriquillo has a surface area of ~358 km2. Sumatra sizes at both ends of the record are 116 km2 in 1984 and 134 km2in 2013, an overall 15.8% increase in 30 years. Determining the causes of lake surface area changes is of extreme importance due to its environmental, social, and economic impacts. The overall goal of this study is to quantify the changing water balance in these lakes and their catchment area using satellite and ground observations and a regional atmospheric-hydrologic modeling approach. Data analyses of environmental variables in the region reflect a hydrological unbalance of the lakes due to changing regional hydro-climatic conditions. Historical data show precipitation, land surface temperature and humidity, and sea surface temperature (SST), increasing over region during the past decades. Salinity levels have also been decreasing by more than 30% from previously reported baseline levels. Here we present a summary of the historical data obtained, new sensors deployed in the sourrounding sierras and the lakes, and the integrated modeling exercises. As well as the challenges of gathering, storing, sharing, and analyzing this large volumen of data in a remote location from such a diverse number of sources.

Phosphorus and potassium balance in soil under crop rotation and fertilization

The use of crop rotation and manure application can provide sustainability for an agricultural production system by improving soil quality and increasing nutrient use efficiency. This study aimed to evaluate the effect of mineral, organic and mineral+organic fertilization on grain yield and on soil phosphorus and potassium balance, in two crop systems under no-till, with and without rotation of cover crops. The experiment was carried out from 2006 to 2008 on a clayey Rhodic Hapludox in Marechal Candido Rondon, Parana State, Brazil. The cropping sequence in the rotation system involving cover crops was black oat + hairy vetch + forage turnip/corn/pigeon pea/wheat/mucuna + brachiaria + sunn hemp, and in the succession system was wheat/corn/wheat/soybean. Organic and mineral+organic fertilizations consisted of the application of solely manure and manure combined with mineral fertilizer, respectively. Soil P and K balances were calculated after the second year of the experiment, up to a depth of 0.40 m. First year corn yields were higher in the crop succession system accompanied by mineral fertilization. In the second year, wheat and soybean yield did not vary between crop systems and nutrient sources, demonstrating the residual effect of crop rotation and manure use. Crop rotation with cover crops resulted in an increase in soil K levels by promoting the recycling of this nutrient in the soil. In both crop systems, the application of mineral and organic fertilizers - either in isolation or in combination - resulted in a negative soil P and K balance in the short term. This represents a threat to the sustainability of the agricultural production system in the long term, due to the depletion of soil nutrient reserves.

Validade e reprodutibilidade do Wii Balance Board para avaliação do equilíbrio vertical estático: um novo método de avaliação.

The Wii Balance Board (WBB) began to be investigated as a low-cost alternative for assessing static balance in vertical posture. However, studies employed methodological procedures that did not eliminate result variability between the tests and equipment used. Objective: Determine the validity and reproducibility of the WBB as an instrument for assessing static balance in the vertical position, using simultaneous data analysis and superimposed equipment. Methods: This is an accuracy study of 29 healthy young individuals of both sexes aged 18 to 30 years. Subjects were assessed 24h apart (test-retest), using unipodal and bipodal support tests, with eyes closed and open. To that end the WBB was placed on top of a force platform (FP) and data (postural sway) were collected simultaneously on both devices. Validity and reproducibility were analyzed using the interclass correlation coefficient (ICC). Finally, Bland-Altman analysis was applied to assess agreement. Results: The sample was composed of 23 women and 6 men, with mean age of 24.2±6.3 years, 60.7±6.3 kg and 1.64±4.2 m. The validity of the WBB compared to the FP was excellent for all 4 tasks proposed (ICC = 0.93 0.98). The reproducibility analyzed by test-retest was excellent for the bipodal support tasks (ICC = 0.93-0.98) and only moderate for the unipodal support tests (ICC = 0.46 0.70). Graphic analysis exhibited good agreement between the devices, since most of the measures were within the limits of agreement. Conclusion: this study proved the validity and reproducibility of the Wii Balance Board as an instrument for assessing static balance in vertical posture, using simultaneous analysis with superimposed equipment. Thus, the WBB has been increasingly used by physical therapists and other health professionals in their clinical practice, as both a rehabilitation and assessment tool

A Chloro-Bridged Linear Chain Imine-Copper(II) Complex and Its Application as an Enzyme-Free Amperometric Biosensor for Hydrogen Peroxide

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Development of ceramic cutting tools for future application on dry machining

Advanced ceramic materials constitute a mature technology with a very broad base of current and potential applications and a growing list of material compositions. Within the advanced ceramics category, silicon nitride based ceramics are wear-resistant, corrosion-resistant and lightweight materials, and are superior to many materials with regard to stability in high-temperature environments. Because of this combination the silicon nitride ceramics have an especially high potential to resolve a wide number of machining problems in the industries. Presently the Si3N4 ceramic cutting tool inserts are developed using additives powders that are pressed and sintered in the form of a cutting tool insert at a temperature of 1850 °C using pressureless sintering. The microstructure of the material was observed and analyzed using XRD, SEM, and the mechanical response of this array microstructure was characterized for hardness Vickers and fracture toughness. The results show that Si3N4/20 wt.% (AlN and Y 2O3) gives the best balance between hardness Vickers and fracture toughness. The Si3N4/15 wt.% (AlN and Y 2O3) composition allows the production of a very fine-grained microstructure with low decreasing of the fracture toughness and increased hardness Vickers. These ceramic cutting tools present adequate characteristics for future application on dry machining. © (2010) Trans Tech Publications.