A new proposition on the martingale representation theorem and on the approximate hedging of contingent claim in mean-variance criterion

In this work we revisit the problem of the hedging of contingent claim using mean-square criterion. We prove that in incomplete market, some probability measure can be identified so that becomes -martingale under .This is in fact a new proposition on the martingale representation theorem. The new results also identify a weight function that serves to be an approximation to the Radon-Nikodým derivative of the unique neutral martingale measure.

Thermodynamic and dynamic contributions to future changes in regional precipitation variance: focus on the Southeastern United States

© 2014, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.The frequency and severity of extreme events are tightly associated with the variance of precipitation. As climate warms, the acceleration in hydrological cycle is likely to enhance the variance of precipitation across the globe. However, due to the lack of an effective analysis method, the mechanisms responsible for the changes of precipitation variance are poorly understood, especially on regional scales. Our study fills this gap by formulating a variance partition algorithm, which explicitly quantifies the contributions of atmospheric thermodynamics (specific humidity) and dynamics (wind) to the changes in regional-scale precipitation variance. Taking Southeastern (SE) United States (US) summer precipitation as an example, the algorithm is applied to the simulations of current and future climate by phase 5 of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) models. The analysis suggests that compared to observations, most CMIP5 models (~60 %) tend to underestimate the summer precipitation variance over the SE US during the 1950–1999, primarily due to the errors in the modeled dynamic processes (i.e. large-scale circulation). Among the 18 CMIP5 models analyzed in this study, six of them reasonably simulate SE US summer precipitation variance in the twentieth century and the underlying physical processes; these models are thus applied for mechanistic study of future changes in SE US summer precipitation variance. In the future, the six models collectively project an intensification of SE US summer precipitation variance, resulting from the combined effects of atmospheric thermodynamics and dynamics. Between them, the latter plays a more important role. Specifically, thermodynamics results in more frequent and intensified wet summers, but does not contribute to the projected increase in the frequency and intensity of dry summers. In contrast, atmospheric dynamics explains the projected enhancement in both wet and dry summers, indicating its importance in understanding future climate change over the SE US. The results suggest that the intensified SE US summer precipitation variance is not a purely thermodynamic response to greenhouse gases forcing, and cannot be explained without the contribution of atmospheric dynamics. Our analysis provides important insights to understand the mechanisms of SE US summer precipitation variance change. The algorithm formulated in this study can be easily applied to other regions and seasons to systematically explore the mechanisms responsible for the changes in precipitation extremes in a warming climate.

Analyse phytogéographique comparative des savanes et des forêts de Ngotto (République Centrafricaine)

After several investigations on the savanna and forest of Ngotto (Central African Republic), we propose a phytogeographical interpretation of our data on the systematic (level family), the biological forms, the dispersion of diaspores and phytogeographical elements spectra. These spectra are given regarding both formation type (savanna, forest) to appreciate their originality. Then, a comparaison is driven in order to set up the differences between these two formations.

Les derniers écueils vers la parité politique en Belgique: Une analyse des élections régionales de 2004

In Belgium, gender-parity has been compulsory for all party lists (in local, regional, federal and European elections) for several years. As a result, the proportion of women has risen from a fourth up to a third of the deputies. Yet, strict parity is still far from realised. This article seeks to establish what causes this glass ceiling, namely the parties' reluctance to place female candidates in the top positions or even as the front-runner. In a proportional representation system with half-open lists, and especially when the constituencies are small, this automatically leads to a smaller proportion of women among the elected deputies. One important reason for the parties' reluctance to rank female candidates higher is their assumption that women are less effective as "election locomotives" than men. However, the analysis of the Belgian election results makes clear that this is not the case. Female candidates in top positions are as successful as their male counterparts. © (2008) Swiss Political Science Review.

"L'Invitation au voyage" de Baudelaire :une analyse évocative

This paper presents a detailed analysis of Baudelaire's poem ''L'Invitation au voyage''. It aims to understand the general meaning of this poem, showing that Baudelaire's ''voyage'' comes less to an ideal paradise than to a kind of voluptuous purgatory. We associate together dimensions of the poem that are usually treated separately :biographical background, stylistic and intertextual borrowings (orientalized Holland, Goethe's Mignon, popular song and romance, Weber's music, Biblical episodes), formal structure and cognitive effects. Our method is based on Benoît de Cornulier's theory of metrics, Searle and Vanderveken's speech act theory and Marc Dominicy's theory of poetic evocation. As Dominicy's theory is quite recent, our article provides substantial summary and clarification of its main theoretical and methodological hypothesis.

Quels sont les TIC utilisés par les étudiants pour choisir leurs études supérieures ?Analyse des focus group organisés lors de la JANE 2015 sur l’image de l’ULB

info:eu-repo/semantics/published

Traitement de données issues d'un corpus écrit multilingue. Approche agile pour l'analyse du discours eurorégional

L'article présente quelques éléments de la procédure mise en place pour traiter un corpus écrit comportant 617 textes (près de 500 000 mots) relatifs aux eurorégions. Complexe et hétérogène à plusieurs titres (technique, linguistique, éditorial, générique, énonciatif), le corpus pose la difficulté majeure de l’appréhension de données multilingues (français, italien, espagnol, anglais, allemand, néerlandais). Sa manipulation a nécessité une réflexion adaptée et une démarche de modélisation que nous qualifions d’« agile » en raison de son caractère souple et itératif. La plateforme d’analyse élaborée permet de disposer de résultats utiles à l’analyse qualitative ultérieure du discours eurorégional. Elle articule un logiciel d'analyse morphosyntaxique éprouvé (TreeTagger) à des programmes (Perl) et à une base de données (SQLite) développés pour optimiser les requêtes multilingues simultanées et l’exportation automatique des résultats. Les fonctionnalités liées à la localisation contextualisée de mots- pivots, au recueil de dénominations et à la détection de segments répétés nous servent ici de guides pour exprimer les besoins de la recherche, les problèmes rencontrés et les solutions proposées. L'analyse d'observables récurrents, à savoir les notions de décision et de responsabilité, illustre le propos.

Ist patriotischer Nationalstolz wünschenswert? Eine differenzierte Analyse seiner psychologischen Bedeutung

Previous studies found that patriotic national pride (e.g., pride in democracy) - as opposed to nationalistic national pride (e.g., pride in being German) - has an attenuating effect on ethnocentrism, which is desirable from a democratic standpoint. Here it is hypothesized (1) that patriotic pride can be ascribed to the three components national identification, importance of democratic aspects of Germany, and belief in existence of democratic aspects of Germany, and (2) that these components exert in part conflicting effects on ethnocentrism and other variables. In two questionnaire studies (N-1 = 121, N-2 = 150) it is shown that (1) the three components do predict patriotic national pride and (2) the democratically desirable effects of patriotic pride trace back primarily to the importance of democratic aspects. In conclusion, from a democratic standpoint, it is positive valuation of democratic aspects and not patriotic pride that should be nurtured.

Towards variance-matrix characterization of complementarity relations in a continuous variable system

We discuss complementarity relations in a bipartite continuous variable system. Building up from the work done on discrete d-dimensional systems, we prove that for symmetric two-mode states, quantum complementarity relations can be put in a simple relation with the elements of the variance matrix. When this condition is not satisfied, such a connection becomes non-trivial. Our investigation is the first step towards an operative characterization of the complementarity in a scenario that has not been investigated so far.

Genetic differentiation of Euterpe edulis Mart. populations estimated by AFLP analysis

Heart-of-palm (Euterpe edulis Mart.) is a wild palm with a wide distribution throughout the Atlantic Rainforest. Populations of E. edulis represent important renewable natural resources but are currently under threat from predatory exploitation. Furthermore, because the species is indigenous to the Atlantic Rainforest, which is located in the most economically developed and populated region of Brazil, social and economic pressures have devastated heart-of-palm forests. In order to estimate the partitioning of genetic variation of endangered E. edulis populations, 429 AFLP markers were used to analyse 150 plants representing 11 populations of the species distribution range. Analysis of the genetic structure of populations carried out using analysis of molecular variance (AMOVA) revealed moderate genetic variation within populations (57.4%). Genetic differentiation between populations (F-ST = 0.426) was positively correlated with geographical distance. These results could be explained by the historical fragmentation of the Atlantic coastal region, together with the life cycle and mating system The data obtained in this work should have important implications for conservation and future breeding programmes of E. edulis.