The impact of finer-resolution air-sea coupling on the intraseasonal oscillation of the Indian monsoon

The new HadKPP atmosphere–ocean coupled model is described and then used to determine the effects of sub-daily air–sea coupling and fine near-surface ocean vertical resolution on the representation of the Northern Hemisphere summer intra-seasonal oscillation. HadKPP comprises the Hadley Centre atmospheric model coupled to the K Profile Parameterization ocean-boundary-layer model. Four 30-member ensembles were performed that varied in oceanic vertical resolution between 1 m and 10 m and in coupling frequency between 3 h and 24 h. The 10 m, 24 h ensemble exhibited roughly 60% of the observed 30–50 day variability in sea-surface temperatures and rainfall and very weak northward propagation. Enhancing either only the vertical resolution or only the coupling frequency produced modest improvements in variability and only a standing intra-seasonal oscillation. Only the 1 m, 3 h configuration generated organized, northward-propagating convection similar to observations. Sub-daily surface forcing produced stronger upper-ocean temperature anomalies in quadrature with anomalous convection, which likely affected lower-atmospheric stability ahead of the convection, causing propagation. Well-resolved air–sea coupling did not improve the eastward propagation of the boreal summer intra-seasonal oscillation in this model. Upper-ocean vertical mixing and diurnal variability in coupled models must be improved to accurately resolve and simulate tropical sub-seasonal variability. In HadKPP, the mere presence of air–sea coupling was not sufficient to generate an intra-seasonal oscillation resembling observations.

Changes to Indian Ocean subantarctic mode water in a coupled climate model as CO2 forcing increases

Subantarctic mode water (SAMW) has been shown to be a good indicator of anthropogenic climate change in coupled climate models. SAMW in a coupled climate model and the response of modeled SAMW to increasing CO2 are examined in detail. How SAMW adjusts from climatological values toward a new equilibrium in the coupled model, with different climatological temperature and salinity properties, is shown. The combined formation rate of SAMW and Antarctic intermediate water is calculated as approximately 18 Sv (Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1) in the Indian sector of the Southern Ocean, slightly lower than climatological values would suggest. When forced with increasing CO2, SAMW is produced at a similar rate but at lower densities. This result suggests that the rate of heat uptake in this part of the ocean will be unchanged by anthropogenic forcing. The important signal in the response of SAMW is the shift to colder and fresher values on isopycnals that is believed to be related to changes in thermodynamic surface forcing. It is shown that, given uniform forcing, SAMW is expected to enhance the signal relative to other water masses. Independent increases in surface heating or freshwater forcing can produce changes similar to those observed, but the two different types of forcing are distinguishable using separate forcing experiments, hodographs, and passive anomaly tracers. The changes in SAMW forced by increasing CO2 are dominated by surface heating, but changes to freshwater fluxes are also important.

On the relationship between the Indian summer monsoon and river flow in the Aral Sea basin

We study the contemporaneous relationship between the intensity of the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) and runoff in the major rivers of the Aral Sea basin (Amudarya, Syrdarya) and some of their subcatchments. To this end, we use All-India rainfall (AIR) data, CRU surface observations of precipitation and temperature, ERA40 atmospheric data, and natural discharge data corrected for human interference. We show that there is a highly significant positive correlation between ISM intensity and Amudarya runoff. This finding cannot be explained by the spill-over of ISM precipitation over the Hindu Kush into the Amudarya basin. Instead, we suggest that the observed co-variability is mediated by tropospheric temperature variations due to fluctuations in the ISM intensity. These variations are known to be due to Rossby-wave propagation in response to condensational heating during monsoon precipitation. We hypothesise that the corresponding anomalies in surface temperatures imply anomalies in meltwater formation.

Assessment of surface winds over the Atlantic, Indian and Pacific Ocean sectors of the Southern Ocean in CMIP5 models: historical bias, forcing response, and state dependence

An assessment of the fifth Coupled Models Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) models’ simulation of the near-surface westerly wind jet position and strength over the Atlantic, Indian and Pacific sectors of the Southern Ocean is presented. Compared with reanalysis climatologies there is an equatorward bias of 3.7° (inter-model standard deviation of ± 2.2°) in the ensemble mean position of the zonal mean jet. The ensemble mean strength is biased slightly too weak, with the largest biases over the Pacific sector (-1.6±1.1 m/s, 27 -22%). An analysis of atmosphere-only (AMIP) experiments indicates that 41% of the zonal mean position bias comes from coupling of the ocean/ice models to the atmosphere. The response to future emissions scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) is characterized by two phases: (i) the period of most rapid ozone recovery (2000-2049) during which there is insignificant change in summer; and (ii) the period 2050-2098 during which RCP4.5 simulations show no significant change but RCP8.5 simulations show poleward shifts (0.30, 0.19 and 0.28°/decade over the Atlantic, Indian and Pacific sectors respectively), and increases in strength (0.06, 0.08 and 0.15 m/s/decade respectively). The models with larger equatorward position biases generally show larger poleward shifts (i.e. state dependence). This inter-model relationship is strongest over the Pacific sector (r=-0.89) and insignificant over the Atlantic sector (r=-0.50). However, an assessment of jet structure shows that over the Atlantic sector jet shift is significantly correlated with jet width whereas over the Pacific sector the distance between the sub-polar and sub-tropical westerly jets appears to be more important.

General circulation model estimates of aerosol transport and radiative forcing during the Indian Ocean Experiment

Aerosol sources, transport, and sinks are simulated, and aerosol direct radiative effects are assessed over the Indian Ocean for the Indian Ocean Experiment (INDOEX) Intensive Field Phase during January to March 1999 using the Laboratoire de Me´te´orologie Dynamique (LMDZT) general circulation model. The model reproduces the latitudinal gradient in aerosol mass concentration and optical depth (AOD). The model-predicted aerosol concentrations and AODs agree reasonably well with measurements but are systematically underestimated during high-pollution episodes, especially in the month of March. The largest aerosol loads are found over southwestern China, the Bay of Bengal, and the Indian subcontinent. Aerosol emissions from the Indian subcontinent are transported into the Indian Ocean through either the west coast or the east coast of India. Over the INDOEX region, carbonaceous aerosols are the largest contributor to the estimated AOD, followed by sulfate, dust, sea salt, and fly ash. During the northeast winter monsoon, natural and anthropogenic aerosols reduce the solar flux reaching the surface by 25 W m�2, leading to 10–15% less insolation at the surface. A doubling of black carbon (BC) emissions from Asia results in an aerosol single-scattering albedo that is much smaller than in situ measurements, reflecting the fact that BC emissions are not underestimated in proportion to other (mostly scattering) aerosol types. South Asia is the dominant contributor to sulfate aerosols over the INDOEX region and accounts for 60–70% of the AOD by sulfate. It is also an important but not the dominant contributor to carbonaceous aerosols over the INDOEX region with a contribution of less than 40% to the AOD by this aerosol species. The presence of elevated plumes brings significant quantities of aerosols to the Indian Ocean that are generated over Africa and Southeast and east Asia.

On the structure and dynamics of Indian monsoon depressions

ERA-Interim reanalysis data from the past 35 years have been used with a newly-developed feature tracking algorithm to identify Indian monsoon depressions originating in or near the Bay of Bengal. These were then rotated, centralised and combined to give a fully three-dimensional 106-depression composite structure – a considerably larger sample than any previous detailed study on monsoon depressions and their structure. Many known features of depression structure are confirmed, particularly the existence of a maximum to the southwest of the centre in rainfall and other fields, and a westward axial tilt in others. Additionally, the depressions are found to have significant asymmetry due to the presence of the Himalayas; a bimodal mid-tropospheric potential vorticity core; a separation into thermally cold- (~–1.5K) and neutral- (~0K) cores near the surface with distinct properties; and that the centre has very large CAPE and very small CIN. Variability as a function of background state has also been explored, with land/coast/sea, diurnal, ENSO, active/break and Indian Ocean Dipole contrasts considered. Depressions are found to be markedly stronger during the active phase of the monsoon, as well as during La Niña. Depressions on land are shown to be more intense and more tightly constrained to the central axis. A detailed schematic diagram of a vertical cross-section through a composite depression is also presented, showing its inherent asymmetric structure.

Is the American Zebu really Bos indicus?

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Molecular phylogeny of advanced snakes (Serpentes, Caenophidia) with an emphasis on South American xenodontines: A revised classification and descriptions of new taxa

We present a molecular phylogenetic analysis of caenophidian (advanced) snakes using sequences from two mitochondrial genes (12S and 16S rRNA) and one nuclear (c-mos) gene (1681 total base pairs), and with 131 terminal taxa sampled from throughout all major caenophidian lineages but focussing on Neotropical xenodontines. Direct optimization parsimony analysis resulted in a well-resolved phylogenetic tree, which corroborates some clades identified in previous analyses and suggests new hypotheses for the composition and relationships of others. The major salient points of our analysis are: (1) placement of Acrochordus, Xenodermatids, and Pareatids as successive outgroups to all remaining caenophidians (including viperids, elapids, atractaspidids, and all other colubrid groups); (2) within the latter group, viperids and homalopsids are sucessive sister clades to all remaining snakes; (3) the following monophyletic clades within crown group caenophidians: Afro-Asian psammophiids (including Mimophis from Madagascar), Elapidae (including hydrophiines but excluding Homoroselaps), Pseudoxyrhophiinae, Colubrinae, Natricinae, Dipsadinae, and Xenodontinae. Homoroselaps is associated with atractaspidids. Our analysis suggests some taxonomic changes within xenodontines, including new taxonomy for Alsophis elegans, Liophis amarali, and further taxonomic changes within Xenodontini and the West Indian radiation of xenodontines. Based on our molecular analysis, we present a revised classification for caenophidians and provide morphological diagnoses for many of the included clades; we also highlight groups where much more work is needed. We name as new two higher taxonomic clades within Caenophidia, one new subfamily within Dipsadidae, and, within Xenodontinae five new tribes, six new genera and two resurrected genera. We synonymize Xenoxybelis and Pseudablabes with Philodryas; Erythrolamprus with Liophis; and Lystrophis and Waglerophis with Xenodon.

Spatial epidemiology of American cutaneous leishmaniasis in a municipality of west Sao Paulo State, Brazil

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

TAXONOMY OF THE SOUTH AMERICAN DWARF BOAS OF THE GENUS TROPIDOPHIS BIBRON, 1840, WITH THE DESCRIPTION OF TWO NEW SPECIES FROM THE ATLANTIC FOREST (SERPENTES: TROPIDOPHIIDAE)

A taxonomic study on the South American dwarf boas of the genus Tropidophis revealed the existence of two new species in the Atlantic Forest bionic. As a result, we recognize five mainland species, three in the Atlantic Forest and two in northwestern South America. Based on general distribution and morphological orientation, the type locality of T. paucisquamis is restricted to Estacao Biologica de Boraceia (EBB), municipality of Salesopolis, state of Sao Paulo, Brazil; furthermore, a lectotype for T. taczanowskyi is designated. We provide data on the hemipenial morphology of two South American Tropidophis, showing that the quadrifurcate condition described for West Indian taxa also occurs in mainland congeners. The distributions of the three Atlantic Forest species are congruent with patterns of diversification of other vertebrate taxa associated with cold climates prevalent at high elevations. Refugial isolation and riverine barriers may account for such speciation events.

Birth weight, current body mass index, and insulin sensitivity and secretion in young adults in two Latin American populations

Background and aims: Although studies have shown association of birth weight (BW) and adult body mass index (BMI) with insulin sensitivity in adults, there is limited evidence that BW is associated with insulin secretion. We assessed the associations between BW and current BMI with insulin sensitivity and secretion in young Latin American adults. Methods and results: Two birth cohorts, one from Ribeirao Preto, Brazil, based on 1984 participants aged 23-25 years, and another from Limache, Chile, based on 965 participants aged 22-28 years were studied. Weight and height at birth, and current fasting plasma glucose and insulin levels were measured. Insulin sensitivity (HOMA%S) and secretion (HOMA%beta) were estimated using the Homeostatic Model Assessment (HOMA2). Multiple linear regression analyses were carried out to test the associations between BW and adult BMI z-scores on log HOMA%S and log HOMA%beta. BW z-score was associated with HOMA%S in the two populations and HOMA%beta in Ribeirao Preto when adult BMI z-score was included in the model. BW z-score was associated with decreasing insulin secretion even without adjusting for adult BMI, but only in Ribeirao Preto. BMI z-score was associated with low HOMA%S and high HOMA%beta. No interactions between BW and BMI z-scores on insulin sensitivity were shown. Conclusions: This study supports the finding that BW may affect insulin sensitivity and secretion in young adults. The effect size of BW on insulin status is small in comparison to current BMI. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A verified spider bite and a review of the literature confirm Indian ornamental tree spiders (Poecilotheria species) as underestimated theraphosids of medical importance.

Literature on bird spider or tarantula bites (Theraphosidae) is rare. This is astonishing as they are coveted pets and interaction with their keepers (feeding, cleaning the terrarium or taking them out to hold) might increase the possibility for bites. Yet, this seems to be a rare event and might be why most theraphosids are considered to be harmless, even though the urticating hairs of many American species can cause disagreeable allergic reactions. We are describing a case of a verified bite by an Indian ornamental tree spider (Poecilotheria regalis), where the patient developed severe, long lasting muscle cramps several hours after the bite. We present a comprehensive review of the literature on bites of these beautiful spiders and conclude that a delayed onset of severe muscle cramps, lasting for days, is characteristic for Poecilotheria bites. We discuss Poecilotheria species as an exception from the general assumption that theraphosid bites are harmless to humans.