1000 resultados para Agriculture Forecasting


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Despite the expenditure of huge amounts of money and human effort, the Green Revolution has largely failed to benefit the vast majority of the rural poor in Africa: those smallholding farmers who sell little, if any, of what they grow and rely almost entirely upon natural soil fertility, rainfall and traditional broodstock and seed varieties. New approaches on food production and income generation in the rural areas must be found if this sector of agricultural community is to be assisted. Integrated resources management (IRM) in general, and integrated agriculture-aquaculture (IAA) in particular, may offer some solutions in cases where the classical methods of improving farm output have failed and/or been unsustainable.

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The article suggests a preliminary list of properties as a point of departure for quantifying various ecological facets of the integrated agriculture-aquaculture farms.

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Malawi is a small but densely populated country in Southern Africa. Fish is an important part of the nutrition of Malawians, providing essential protein and micronutrients. However, per capita fish consumption has halved over the ten-year period between 1988 to 1998 due to over-fishing in the lakes and doubling of the population since the 1970s, accompanied by an increase in the price of fish. This has worsened access to food insecurity, especially in rural areas, in a country where an estimated 66 per cent of the population consume less than the minimum daily calorie requirement. This paper presents an ex-post impact assessment of the development and dissemination of smallscale integrated aquaculture-agriculture technologies by The WorldFish Center and its national and international partners over more than 15 years in Malawi. The impact study measures the effects of these outputs on the degree of integrated aquaculture-agriculture (IAA) technology adoption and diffusion, the effects on farm income and health of household members, and the welfare effects of increased fish supply on the Malawian economy.

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The effect of aquaculture, especially shrimp farming, on agriculture has caused heated debate among aquaculturists, agriculturists, and non-governmental organizations. As data on the negative impact of shrimp farming on adjacent rice fields are not available, a study was undertaken in rice fields skirting three shrimp farms: a semi-intensive farm; an extensive farm; and a semi-intensive farm with a buffer zone. The buffer zone was found to be helpful in preventing salinization of the adjacent agricultural fields and the Electrical Conductivity (EC) values (less than 1) reported were found to be harmless to the rice crop. Thus, aquaculture and agriculture can coexist in coastal areas if there are buffer zones in between.

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The integration of agriculture and aquaculture as a means of intensifying resource use and improving the productivity of many current farming practices in Southeast Asian and African countries is discussed. A brief account is given of work undertaken by ICLARM in Malawi and India regarding the improved use of marginal lands to integrate crops, vegetables, trees, livestock and fish, outlining also the various problems involved in the extension of such integrated fish farming systems.

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In this paper we present livestock breeding developments that could be taken into consideration in the genetic improvement of farmed aquaculture species, especially in freshwater fish. Firstly, the current breeding objective in aquatic species has focused almost exclusively on the improvement of body weight at harvest or on growth related traits. This is unlikely to be sufficient to meet the future needs of the aquaculture industry. To meet future demands breeding programs will most likely have to include additional traits, such as fitness related ones (survival, disease resistance), feed efficiency, or flesh quality, rather than only growth performance. In order to select for a multi-trait breeding objective, genetic variation in traits of interest and the genetic relationships among them need to be estimated. In addition, economic values for these traits will be required. Generally, there is a paucity of data on variable and fixed production costs in aquaculture, and this could be a major constraint in the further expansion of the breeding objectives. Secondly, genetic evaluation systems using the restricted maximum likelihood method (REML) and best linear unbiased prediction (BLUP) in a framework of mixed model methodology could be widely adopted to replace the more commonly used method of mass selection based on phenotypic performance. The BLUP method increases the accuracy of selection and also allows the management of inbreeding and estimation of genetic trends. BLUP is an improvement over the classic selection index approach, which was used in the success story of the genetically improved farmed tilapia (GIFT) in the Philippines, with genetic gains from 10 to 20 per cent per generation of selection. In parallel with BLUP, optimal genetic contribution theory can be applied to maximize genetic gain while constraining inbreeding in the long run in selection programs. Thirdly, by using advanced statistical methods, genetic selection can be carried out not only at the nucleus level but also in lower tiers of the pyramid breeding structure. Large scale across population genetic evaluation through genetic connectedness using cryopreserved sperm enables the comparison and ranking of genetic merit of all animals across populations, countries or years, and thus the genetically superior brood stock can be identified and widely used and exchanged to increase the rate of genetic progress in the population as a whole. It is concluded that sound genetic programs need to be established for aquaculture species. In addition to being very effective, fully pedigreed breeding programs would also enable the exploration of possibilities of integrating molecular markers (e.g., genetic tagging using DNA fingerprinting, marker (gene) assisted selection) and reproductive technologies such as in-vitro fertilization using cryopreserved spermatozoa.

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With its genesis in New England during the 1800's, the purse seine fishery for Atlantic menhaden, Brevoortia tyrannus, expanded south and by the early 1900's ranged the length of the eastern seaboard. The purse seine fishery for Gulf menhaden. B. patronus, is of relatively recent development, exploitation of the stock beginning in the late 1940's. Landings from both fisheries annually comprise 35-40% of the total U. S. fisheries landings, ranking menhaden first in terms of volume landed. Technological advances in harvesting methods, fish-spotting capabilities, and vessel designs accelerated after World War II, resulting in larger, faster, and wider-ranging carrier vessels, improved speed and efficiency of the harvest, and reduction in labor requirements. Chief products of the menhaden industry are fish meal, fish oil, and solubles, but research into new product lines is underway. Since 1955 on the Atlantic coast and 1964 on the Gulf coast, the NMFS has monitored the fisheries for biostatistical data. Annual data summaries of numbers-of-fish-at-age harvested, catch tonnage, and fishing effort of the fleet form the basis of routine stock assessments and annual catch forecasts to industry for the upcoming fishing season. After landings declined in the 1960's, the Atlantic menhaden stock has recovered through the 1970's and 1980's. Exceptional year classes of Gulf menhaden in recent years account for record landings during the 1980's.

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This study estimated the adoption rate of integrated aquaculture-agriculture (IAA) technologies in Bangladesh and their impact on poverty and fish and food consumption in adopting households. We used a novel, simulation-based approach to impact assessment called Tradeoff Analysis for Multi-Dimensional Impact Assessment (TOA-MD). We used the TOA-MD model to demonstrate how it is possible to use available data to estimate adoption rates in relevant populations, and to quantify impacts on distributional outcomes such as poverty and food security, thus demonstrating ex ante the potential for further investment in technology dissemination. The analysis used baseline and end-of-project survey data from WorldFish-implemented Development of Sustainable Aquaculture Project (DSAP), promoting IAA. This dataset was used to simulate adoption and assess its impacts on poverty and food security in the target population. We found that, if adopted, IAA had a significant positive impact on reducing poverty and improving food security and income.

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There are increasing requirements for impact assessment by development partners in order to increase the accountability and effectiveness of research and development projects. Impact assessment research has been dominated by conventional economic methods. This context challenges agricultural research organizations to develop and apply alternative impact assessment methods incorporating economic, social, and environmental impact components. In this study, we use the Tradeoff Analysis for Multi-Dimensional Impact Assessment (TOA-MD) model to evaluate the impact of integrated aquaculture-agriculture (IAA) adoption in Malawi. The study demonstrated that with a minimal data set, the TOA-MD model can be applied to predict and assess the adoption rates of new technologies and practices as well as their economic and non-economic impacts.

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Historic map of the River Lune Fishery District.