A hybrid metaheuritic technique developed for hourly load forecasting

Electricity load forecasting has become one of the most functioning tools in energy efficiency and load management and utility companies which has been made very complex due to deregulation. Due to the importance of providing a secure and economic electricty for the consumers, having a reliable and robust enough forecast engine in short-term load management is very needful. Fuzzy inference system is one of primal branches of Artificial Intelligence techniques which has been widely used for different applications of decision making in complex systems. This paper aims to develop a Fuzzy inference system as a main forecast engine for Short term Load Forecasting (STLF) of a city in Iran. However, the optimization of this platform for this special case remains a basic problem. Hence, to address this issue, the Radial Movement Optimization (RMO) technique is proposed to optimize the whole Fuzzy platform. To support this idea, the accuracy of the proposed model is analyzed using MAPE index and an average error of 1.38% is obtained for the forecast load demand which represents the reliability of the proposed method. Finally, results achieved by this method, demonstrate that an adaptive two-stage hybrid system consisting of Fuzzy & RMO can be an accurate and robust enough choice for STLF problems.

Soft-computing techniques applied to artificial tissue temperature estimation

Tese dout., Engenharia electrónica e computação - Processamento de sinal, Universidade do Algarve, 2008

Elements of a methodology to assess the alignment of core-values in collaborative networks

Collaborative networks are typically formed by heterogeneous and autonomous entities, and thus it is natural that each member has its own set of core-values. Since these values somehow drive the behaviour of the involved entities, the ability to quickly identify partners with compatible or common core-values represents an important element for the success of collaborative networks. However, tools to assess or measure the level of alignment of core-values are lacking. Since the concept of 'alignment' in this context is still ill-defined and shows a multifaceted nature, three perspectives are discussed. The first one uses a causal maps approach in order to capture, structure, and represent the influence relationships among core-values. This representation provides the basis to measure the alignment in terms of the structural similarity and influence among value systems. The second perspective considers the compatibility and incompatibility among core-values in order to define the alignment level. Under this perspective we propose a fuzzy inference system to estimate the alignment level, since this approach allows dealing with variables that are vaguely defined, and whose inter-relationships are difficult to define. Another advantage provided by this method is the possibility to incorporate expert human judgment in the definition of the alignment level. The last perspective uses a belief Bayesian network method, and was selected in order to assess the alignment level based on members' past behaviour. An example of application is presented where the details of each method are discussed.

Extração de conhecimento em forma de regras difusas a partir de mapas auto-organizáveis de Kohonen: aplicação em diagnóstico de faltas incipientes em transformadores

Apesar das diversas vantagens oferecidas pelas redes neurais artificiais (RNAs), algumas limitações ainda impedem sua larga utilização, principalmente em aplicações que necessitem de tomada de decisões essenciais para garantir a segurança em ambientes como, por exemplo, em Sistemas de Energia. Uma das principais limitações das RNAs diz respeito à incapacidade que estas redes apresentam de explicar como chegam a determinadas decisões; explicação esta que seja humanamente compreensível. Desta forma, este trabalho propõe um método para extração de regras a partir do mapa auto-organizável de Kohonen, projetando um sistema de inferência difusa capaz de explicar as decisões/classificação obtidas através do mapa. A metodologia proposta é aplicada ao problema de diagnóstico de faltas incipientes em transformadores, em que se obtém um sistema classificatório eficiente e com capacidade de explicação em relação aos resultados obtidos, o que gera mais confiança aos especialistas da área na hora de tomar decisões.

Preventive diagnosis of dairy cow lameness

This research aimed to develop a Fuzzy inference based on expert system to help preventing lameness in dairy cattle. Hoof length, nutritional parameters and floor material properties (roughness) were used to build the Fuzzy inference system. The expert system architecture was defined using Unified Modelling Language (UML). Data were collected in a commercial dairy herd using two different subgroups (H-1 and H-2), in order to validate the Fuzzy inference functions. The numbers of True Positive (TP), False Positive (FP), True Negative (TN), and False Negative (FN) responses were used to build the classifier system up, after an established gold standard comparison. A Lesion Incidence Possibility (LIP) developed function indicates the chances of a cow becoming lame. The obtained lameness percentage in H-1 and H-2 was 8.40% and 1.77%, respectively. The system estimated a Lesion Incidence Possibility (LIP) of 5.00% and 2.00% in H-1 and H-2, respectively. The system simulation presented 3.40% difference from real cattle lameness data for H-1, while for H-2, it was 0.23%; indicating the system efficiency in decision-making.

Desenvolvimento e aplicação do índice de desempenho energético da iluminação pública utilizando lógica nebulosa: estudo de caso da Cidade Universitária \"Armando de Salles Oliveira\" da Universidade de São Paulo.

A eficiência e a racionalidade energética da iluminação pública têm relevante importância no sistema elétrico, porque contribui para diminuir a necessidade de investimentos na construção de novas fontes geradoras de energia elétrica e nos desperdícios energéticos. Apresenta-se como objetivo deste trabalho de pesquisa o desenvolvimento e aplicação do IDE (índice de desempenho energético), fundamentado no sistema de inferência nebulosa e indicadores de eficiência e racionalidade de uso da energia elétrica. A opção em utilizar a inferência nebulosa deve-se aos fatos de sua capacidade de reproduzir parte do raciocínio humano, e estabelecer relação entre a diversidade de indicadores envolvidos. Para a consecução do sistema de inferência nebulosa, foram definidas como variáveis de entrada: os indicadores de eficiência e racionalidade; o método de inferência foi baseado em regras produzidas por especialista em iluminação pública, e como saída um número real que caracteriza o IDE. Os indicadores de eficiência e racionalidade são divididos em duas classes: globais e específicos. Os indicadores globais são: FP (fator de potência), FC (fator de carga) e FD (fator de demanda). Os indicadores específicos são: FU (fator de utilização), ICA (consumo de energia por área iluminada), IE (intensidade energética) e IL (intensidade de iluminação natural). Para a aplicação deste trabalho, foi selecionada e caracterizada a iluminação pública da Cidade Universitária \"Armando de Salles Oliveira\" da Universidade de São Paulo. Sendo assim, o gestor do sistema de iluminação, a partir do índice desenvolvido neste trabalho, dispõe de condições para avaliar o uso da energia elétrica e, desta forma, elaborar e simular estratégias com o objetivo de economizá-la.

Feasibility of controlling nitrification in predenitrification plants using DO, pH and ORP sensors

Experimental studies were carried out on a bench-scale nitrogen removal system with a predenitrification configuration to gain insights into the spatial and temporal variations of DO, pH and ORP in such systems. It is demonstrated that these signals correlate strongly with the operational states of the system, and could therefore be used as system performance indicators. The DO concentration in the first aerobic zone, when receiving constant aeration, and the net pH change between the last and first aerobic zones display strong correlations with the influent ammonia concentration for the domestic wastewater used in this study. The pH profile along the aerobic zones gives good indication on the extent of nitrification. The experimental results also showed a good correlation between ORP values in the last aerobic zone and effluent ammonia and nitrate concentrations, provided that DO in this zone is controlled at a constant level. These results suggest that the DO, pH and ORP sensors could potentially be used as alternatives to the on-line nutrient sensors for the control of continuous systems. An idea of using a fuzzy inference system to make an integrated use of these signals for on-line aeration control is presented and demonstrated on the bench-scale system with promising results. The use of these sensors has to date only been demonstrated in intermittent systems, such as sequencing batch reactor systems.

Fuzzy Ensembles for Embedding Adaptive Behaviours in Semi-Autonomous Avatars in 3D Virtual Worlds

Semi-autonomous avatars should be both realistic and believable. The goal is to learn from and reproduce the behaviours of the user-controlled input to enable semi-autonomous avatars to plausibly interact with their human-controlled counterparts. A powerful tool for embedding autonomous behaviour is learning by imitation. Hence, in this paper an ensemble of fuzzy inference systems cluster the user input data to identify natural groupings within the data to describe the users movement and actions in a more abstract way. Multiple clustering algorithms are investigated along with a neuro-fuzzy classifier; and an ensemble of fuzzy systems are evaluated.

Fuzzy ART: An Adaptive Resonance Algorithm for Rapid, Stable Classification of Analog Patterns

The Fuzzy ART system introduced herein incorporates computations from fuzzy set theory into ART 1. For example, the intersection (n) operator used in ART 1 learning is replaced by the MIN operator (A) of fuzzy set theory. Fuzzy ART reduces to ART 1 in response to binary input vectors, but can also learn stable categories in response to analog input vectors. In particular, the MIN operator reduces to the intersection operator in the binary case. Learning is stable because all adaptive weights can only decrease in time. A preprocessing step, called complement coding, uses on-cell and off-cell responses to prevent category proliferation. Complement coding normalizes input vectors while preserving the amplitudes of individual feature activations.

Position control of shape memory alloy actuators using self tuning fuzzy PID controller

Shape Memory Alloy (SMA) actuators, which have the ability to return to a predetermined shape when heated, have many potential applications such as aeronautics, surgical tools, robotics and so on. Although the conventional PID controller can be used with slow response systems, there has been limited success in precise motion control of SMA actuators, since the systems are disturbed by unknown factors beside their inherent nonlinear hysteresis and changes in the surrounding environment of the systems. This paper presents a new development of a SMA position control system by using a self-tuning fuzzy PID controller. This control algorithm is used by tuning the parameters of the PID controller thereby integrating fuzzy inference and producing a fuzzy adaptive PID controller, which can then be used to improve the control performance of nonlinear systems. The experimental results of position control of SMA actuators using conventional and self-tuning fuzzy PID controllers are both included in this paper.

An Efficient LS-SVM-Based Method for Fuzzy System Construction

This paper proposes an efficient learning mechanism to build fuzzy rule-based systems through the construction of sparse least-squares support vector machines (LS-SVMs). In addition to the significantly reduced computational complexity in model training, the resultant LS-SVM-based fuzzy system is sparser while offers satisfactory generalization capability over unseen data. It is well known that the LS-SVMs have their computational advantage over conventional SVMs in the model training process; however, the model sparseness is lost, which is the main drawback of LS-SVMs. This is an open problem for the LS-SVMs. To tackle the nonsparseness issue, a new regression alternative to the Lagrangian solution for the LS-SVM is first presented. A novel efficient learning mechanism is then proposed in this paper to extract a sparse set of support vectors for generating fuzzy IF-THEN rules. This novel mechanism works in a stepwise subset selection manner, including a forward expansion phase and a backward exclusion phase in each selection step. The implementation of the algorithm is computationally very efficient due to the introduction of a few key techniques to avoid the matrix inverse operations to accelerate the training process. The computational efficiency is also confirmed by detailed computational complexity analysis. As a result, the proposed approach is not only able to achieve the sparseness of the resultant LS-SVM-based fuzzy systems but significantly reduces the amount of computational effort in model training as well. Three experimental examples are presented to demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed learning mechanism and the sparseness of the obtained LS-SVM-based fuzzy systems, in comparison with other SVM-based learning techniques.

A guided rule reduction system for prioritization of failures in fuzzy FMEA

Traditional Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) utilizes the Risk Priority Number (RPN) ranking system to evaluate the risk level of failures, to rank failures, and to prioritize actions. Although this method is simple, it suffers from several shortcomings. In this paper, use of fuzzy inference techniques for RPN determination in an attempt to overcome the weaknesses associated with the traditional RPN ranking system is investigated. However, the fuzzy RPN model, suffers from the combinatorial rule explosion problem. As a result, a generic rule reduction approach, i.e. the Guided Rule Reduction System (GRRS), is proposed to reduce the number of rules that need to be provided by users during the fuzzy RPN modeling process. The proposed approach is evaluated using real-world case studies pertaining to semiconductor manufacturing. The results are analyzed, and implications of the proposed approach are discussed.

Adaptive washout algorithm based fuzzy tuning for improving human perception

The aim of this paper is to provide a washout filter that can accurately produce vehicle motions in the simulator platform at high fidelity, within the simulators physical limitations. This is to present the driver with a realistic virtual driving experience to minimize the human sensation error between the real driving and simulated driving situation. To successfully achieve this goal, an adaptive washout filter based on fuzzy logic online tuning is proposed to overcome the shortcomings of fixed parameters, lack of human perception and conservative motion features in the classical washout filters. The cutoff frequencies of highpass, low-pass filters are tuned according to the displacement information of platform, workspace limitation and human sensation in real time based on fuzzy logic system. The fuzzy based scaling method is proposed to let the platform uses the workspace whenever is far from its margins. The proposed motion cueing algorithm is implemented in MATLAB/Simulink software packages and provided results show the capability of this method due to its better performance, improved human sensation and exploiting the platform more efficiently without reaching the motion limitation.

Formulação do controle preventivo em sistemas de distribuição de energia elétrica baseada na lógica fuzzy e redes neurais

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)