Detectability of migrating raptors and its effect on bias and precision of trend estimates

Annual counts of migrating raptors at fixed observation points are a widespread practice, and changes in numbers counted over time, adjusted for survey effort, are commonly used as indices of trends in population size. Unmodeled year-to-year variation in detectability may introduce bias, reduce precision of trend estimates, and reduce power to detect trends. We conducted dependent double-observer surveys at the annual fall raptor migration count at Lucky Peak, Idaho, in 2009 and 2010 and applied Huggins closed-capture removal models and information-theoretic model selection to determine the relative importance of factors affecting detectability. The most parsimonious model included effects of observer team identity, distance, species, and day of the season. We then simulated 30 years of counts with heterogeneous individual detectability, a population decline (λ = 0.964), and unexplained random variation in the number of available birds. Imperfect detectability did not bias trend estimation, and increased the time required to achieve 80% power by less than 11%. Results suggested that availability is a greater source of variance in annual counts than detectability; thus, efforts to account for availability would improve the monitoring value of migration counts. According to our models, long-term trends in observer efficiency or migratory flight distance may introduce substantial bias to trend estimates. Estimating detectability with a novel count protocol like our double-observer method is just one potential means of controlling such effects. The traditional approach of modeling the effects of covariates and adjusting the index may also be effective if ancillary data is collected consistently.

Evaluation of a 2D multileader training system for improving sustainability and precision orchard management applications in italian apple orchards

The presented study aimed to evaluate the productive and physiological behavior of a 2D multileader apple training systems in the Italian environment both investigating the possibility to increase yield and precision crop load management resolution. Another objective was to find valuable thinning thresholds guaranteeing high yields and matching fruit market requirements. The thesis consists in three studies carried out in a Pink Lady®- Rosy Glow apple orchard trained as a planar multileader training system (double guyot). Fruiting leaders (uprights) dimension, crop load, fruit quality, flower and physiological (leaf gas exchanges and fruit growth rate) data were collected and analysed. The obtained results found that uprights present dependence among each other and as well as a mutual support during fruit development. However, individual upright fruit load and upright’s fruit load distribution on the tree (~ plant crop load) seems to define both upright independence from the other, and single upright crop load effects on the final fruit quality production. Correlations between fruit load and harvest fruit size were found and thanks to that valuable thinning thresholds, based on different vegetative parameters, were obtained. Moreover, it comes out that an upright’s fruit load random distribution presents a widening of those thinning thresholds, keeping un-altered fruit quality. For this reason, uprights resulted a partially physiologically-dependent plant unit. Therefore, if considered and managed as independent, then no major problems on final fruit quality and production occurred. This partly confirmed the possibility to shift crop load management to single upright. The finding of the presented studies together with the benefits coming from multileader planar training systems suggest a high potentiality of the 2D multileader training systems to increase apple production sustainability and profitability for Italian apple orchard, while easing the advent of automation in fruit production.

Profundidade de deposição de semente de milho na região dos Campos Gerais, Paraná

No Tillage system is fully incorporated to farming in the region of Campos Gerais, state of Paraná. Accuracy and precision in the planting process are items of great importance for the success of this system. In order to evaluate the planting process, thirty eight farms were selected as sites for analysis of the placement depth of seeds. The research area was 4 or 5 planting rows, evaluating 10 plantlets per row. The average seed depth was around 46 mm, and significant differences between rows were observed in 21 areas. The average coefficient of variation was around 20%, the statistical limit between medium and high. Analyses of other parameters show that those coefficients may represent different errors in the process. The planting process in Campos Gerais can be considered efficient regarding to the average seed depth. However, the analysis of variability implies de need of actions concerning to anthropic and machinery factors.

Calibração de câmeras para análises subaquáticas de movimentos = : Cameras calibration for underwater motion analysis

Universidade Estadual de Campinas . Faculdade de Educação Física

Energy expenditure during 2nd week of an ultra-endurance run around Australia

Purpose: For ultra-endurance athletes, whose energy expenditure is likely to be at the extremes of human tolerance for sustained periods of time, there is increased concern regarding meeting energy needs. Due to the lack of data outlining the energy requirements of such athletes, it is possible that those participating in ultra-endurance exercise are compromising performance, as well as health, as a result of inadequate nutrition and energy intake. To provide insight into this dilemma, we have presented a case study of a 37-yr-old ultra-marathon runner as he runs around the coast of Australia. Methods: Total energy expenditure was measured over a 2-wk period using the doubly labeled water technique. Results: The average total energy expenditure of the case subject was 6321 kcal.d(-1). Based on the expected accuracy and precision of the doubly labeled water technique the subject's total energy expenditure might range between 6095 and 6550 kcal.d(-1). The subject's average daily water turnover was 6.083 L over the 14-d period and might range between 5.9 L and 6.3 L.d(-1). Conclusions: This information will provide a guide to the energy requirements of ultra-endurance running and enable athletes, nutritionists, and coaches to optimize performance without compromising the health of the participant.

Implementação, validação e análise técnico-económico de alguns parâmetros analíticos no controlo de águas

Mestrado em Engenharia Química

Classificação de atividades físicas através do uso do acelerómetro do smartphone

Dissertação de natureza científica realizada para a obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia de redes de comunicação e Multimédia

Flow-injection potentiometric method for the routine determination of chloride: application to bread analysis

Bread is consumed worldwide by man, thus contributing to the regular ingestion of certain inorganic species such as chloride. It controls the blood pressure if associated to a sodium intake and may increase the incidence of stomach ulcer. Its routine control should thus be established by means of quick and low cost procedures. This work reports a double- channel flow injection analysis (FIA) system with a new chloride sensor for the analysis of bread. All solutions are prepared in water and necessary ionic strength adjustments are made on-line. The body of the indicating electrode is made from a silver needle of 0.8 mm i.d. with an external layer of silver chloride. These devices were constructed with different lengths. Electrodes of 1.0 to 3.0 cm presented better analytical performance. The calibration curves under optimum conditions displayed Nernstian behaviour, with average slopes of 56 mV decade-1, with sampling rates of 60 samples h-1. The method was applied to analyze several kinds of bread, namely pão de trigo, pão integral, pão de centeio, pão de mistura, broa de milho, pão sem sal, pão meio sal, pão-de-leite, and pão de água. The accuracy and precision of the potentiometric method were ascertained by comparison to a spectrophotometric method of continuous segmented flow. These methods were validated against ion-chromatography procedures.

Sistema de mapeamento e localização simultânea para inspecção subaquática

A sequente dissertação resulta do desenvolvimento de um sistema de navegação subaquático para um Remotely Operated Vehicle (ROV). A abordagem proposta consiste de um algoritmo em tempo real baseado no método de Mapeamento e Localização Simultâneo (SLAM) a partir de marcadores em ambientes marinhos não estruturados. SLAM introduz dois principais desafios: (i) reconhecimento dos marcadores provenientes dos dados raw do sensor, (ii) associação de dados. Na detecção dos marcadores foram aplicadas técnicas de visão artificial baseadas na extracção de pontos e linhas. Para testar o uso de features no visual SLAM em tempo real nas operações de inspecção subaquáticas foi desenvolvida uma plataforma modicada do RT-SLAM que integra a abordagem EKF SLAM. A plataforma é integrada em ROS framework e permite estimar a trajetória 3D em tempo real do ROV VideoRay Pro 3E até 30 fps. O sistema de navegação subaquático foi caracterizado num tanque instalado no Laboratório de Sistemas Autónomos através de um sistema stereo visual de ground truth. Os resultados obtidos permitem validar o sistema de navegação proposto para veículos subaquáticos. A trajetória adquirida pelo VideoRay em ambiente controlado é validada pelo sistema de ground truth. Dados para ambientes não estruturados, como um gasoduto, foram adquiridos e obtida respectiva trajetória realizada pelo robô. Os dados apresentados comprovam uma boa precisão e exatidão para a estimativa da posição.

Determination of Microcystin-LR in waters in the subnanomolar range by sol–gel imprinted polymers on solid contact electrodes

The present work reports new sensors for the direct determination of Microcystin-LR (MC-LR) in environmental waters. Both selective membrane and solid contact were optimized to ensure suitable analytical features in potentiometric transduction. The sensing layer consisted of Imprinted Sol–Gel (ISG) materials capable of establishing surface interactions with MC-LR. Non-Imprinted Sol–Gel (NISG) membranes were used as negative control. The effects of an ionic lipophilic additive, time of sol–gel polymerization, time of extraction of MC-LR from the sensitive layer, and pH were also studied. The solid contact was made of carbon, aluminium, titanium, copper or nickel/chromium alloys (80 : 20 or 90 : 10). The best ISG sensor had a carbon solid contact and displayed average slopes of 211.3 mV per decade, with detection limits of 7.3 1010 M, corresponding to 0.75 mg L1 . It showed linear responses in the range of 7.7 1010 to 1.9 109 M of MC-LR (corresponding to 0.77–2.00 mg L1 ), thus including the limiting value for MC-LR in waters (1.0 mg L1 ). The potentiometric-selectivity coefficients were assessed by the matched potential method for ionic species regularly found in waters up to their limiting levels. Chloride (Cl) showed limited interference while aluminium (Al3+), ammonium (NH4 + ), magnesium (Mg2+), manganese (Mn2+), sodium (Na+ ), and sulfate (SO4 2) were unable to cause the required potential change. Spiked solutions were tested with the proposed sensor. The relative errors and standard deviation obtained confirmed the accuracy and precision of the method. It also offered the advantages of low cost, portability, easy operation and suitability for adaptation to flow methods.

Bootstrap performance profiles in stochastic algorithms assessment

Optimization with stochastic algorithms has become a relevant research field. Due to its stochastic nature, its assessment is not straightforward and involves integrating accuracy and precision. Performance profiles for the mean do not show the trade-off between accuracy and precision, and parametric stochastic profiles require strong distributional assumptions and are limited to the mean performance for a large number of runs. In this work, bootstrap performance profiles are used to compare stochastic algorithms for different statistics. This technique allows the estimation of the sampling distribution of almost any statistic even with small samples. Multiple comparison profiles are presented for more than two algorithms. The advantages and drawbacks of each assessment methodology are discussed.

Reliable acetabular cup orientation with a new gravity-assisted guidance system.

Acetabular cup orientation is a key factor determining hip stability, and standard mechanical guides have shown little help in improving alignment. An in vitro study was carried out to compare the accuracy and precision of a new gravity-assisted guidance system with a standard mechanical guide. Three hundred ten cups were impacted by 5 surgeons, and the final cup orientation was measured. With the new guide, the average error in anteversion was 0.4 degrees , compared with 10.4 degrees with the standard guide and 0.3 degrees and -4.7 degrees , respectively, for abduction angles. The average time required for orienting the cups was similar for both guides. The accuracy and reproducibility obtained with the new guide were better (P < .0001). These good results would require a clinical validation.

Spatio-temporal gait analysis in children with cerebral palsy using, foot-worn inertial sensors.

A child's natural gait pattern may be affected by the gait laboratory environment. Wearable devices using body-worn sensors have been developed for gait analysis. The purpose of this study was to validate and explore the use of foot-worn inertial sensors for the measurement of selected spatio-temporal parameters, based on the 3D foot trajectory, in independently walking children with cerebral palsy (CP). We performed a case control study with 14 children with CP aged 6-15 years old and 15 age-matched controls. Accuracy and precision of the foot-worn device were measured using an optical motion capture system as the reference system. Mean accuracy±precision for both groups was 3.4±4.6cm for stride length, 4.3±4.2cm/s for speed and 0.5±2.9° for strike angle. Longer stance and shorter swing phases with an increase in double support were observed in children with CP (p=0.001). Stride length, speed and peak angular velocity during swing were decreased in paretic limbs, with significant differences in strike and lift-off angles. Children with cerebral palsy showed significantly higher inter-stride variability (measured by their coefficient of variation) for speed, stride length, swing and stance. During turning trajectories speed and stride length decreased significantly (p<0.01) for both groups, whereas stance increased significantly (p<0.01) in CP children only. Foot-worn inertial sensors allowed us to analyze gait spatiotemporal data outside a laboratory environment with good accuracy and precision and congruent results with what is known of gait variations during linear walking in children with CP.

Dose reconstruction in the context of tomotherapy

In vivo dosimetry is a way to verify the radiation dose delivered to the patient in measuring the dose generally during the first fraction of the treatment. It is the only dose delivery control based on a measurement performed during the treatment. In today's radiotherapy practice, the dose delivered to the patient is planned using 3D dose calculation algorithms and volumetric images representing the patient. Due to the high accuracy and precision necessary in radiation treatments, national and international organisations like ICRU and AAPM recommend the use of in vivo dosimetry. It is also mandatory in some countries like France. Various in vivo dosimetry methods have been developed during the past years. These methods are point-, line-, plane- or 3D dose controls. A 3D in vivo dosimetry provides the most information about the dose delivered to the patient, with respect to ID and 2D methods. However, to our knowledge, it is generally not routinely applied to patient treatments yet. The aim of this PhD thesis was to determine whether it is possible to reconstruct the 3D delivered dose using transmitted beam measurements in the context of narrow beams. An iterative dose reconstruction method has been described and implemented. The iterative algorithm includes a simple 3D dose calculation algorithm based on the convolution/superposition principle. The methodology was applied to narrow beams produced by a conventional 6 MV linac. The transmitted dose was measured using an array of ion chambers, as to simulate the linear nature of a tomotherapy detector. We showed that the iterative algorithm converges quickly and reconstructs the dose within a good agreement (at least 3% / 3 mm locally), which is inside the 5% recommended by the ICRU. Moreover it was demonstrated on phantom measurements that the proposed method allows us detecting some set-up errors and interfraction geometry modifications. We also have discussed the limitations of the 3D dose reconstruction for dose delivery error detection. Afterwards, stability tests of the tomotherapy MVCT built-in onboard detector was performed in order to evaluate if such a detector is suitable for 3D in-vivo dosimetry. The detector showed stability on short and long terms comparable to other imaging devices as the EPIDs, also used for in vivo dosimetry. Subsequently, a methodology for the dose reconstruction using the tomotherapy MVCT detector is proposed in the context of static irradiations. This manuscript is composed of two articles and a script providing further information related to this work. In the latter, the first chapter introduces the state-of-the-art of in vivo dosimetry and adaptive radiotherapy, and explains why we are interested in performing 3D dose reconstructions. In chapter 2 a dose calculation algorithm implemented for this work is reviewed with a detailed description of the physical parameters needed for calculating 3D absorbed dose distributions. The tomotherapy MVCT detector used for transit measurements and its characteristics are described in chapter 3. Chapter 4 contains a first article entitled '3D dose reconstruction for narrow beams using ion chamber array measurements', which describes the dose reconstruction method and presents tests of the methodology on phantoms irradiated with 6 MV narrow photon beams. Chapter 5 contains a second article 'Stability of the Helical TomoTherapy HiArt II detector for treatment beam irradiations. A dose reconstruction process specific to the use of the tomotherapy MVCT detector is presented in chapter 6. A discussion and perspectives of the PhD thesis are presented in chapter 7, followed by a conclusion in chapter 8. The tomotherapy treatment device is described in appendix 1 and an overview of 3D conformai- and intensity modulated radiotherapy is presented in appendix 2. - La dosimétrie in vivo est une technique utilisée pour vérifier la dose délivrée au patient en faisant une mesure, généralement pendant la première séance du traitement. Il s'agit de la seule technique de contrôle de la dose délivrée basée sur une mesure réalisée durant l'irradiation du patient. La dose au patient est calculée au moyen d'algorithmes 3D utilisant des images volumétriques du patient. En raison de la haute précision nécessaire lors des traitements de radiothérapie, des organismes nationaux et internationaux tels que l'ICRU et l'AAPM recommandent l'utilisation de la dosimétrie in vivo, qui est devenue obligatoire dans certains pays dont la France. Diverses méthodes de dosimétrie in vivo existent. Elles peuvent être classées en dosimétrie ponctuelle, planaire ou tridimensionnelle. La dosimétrie 3D est celle qui fournit le plus d'information sur la dose délivrée. Cependant, à notre connaissance, elle n'est généralement pas appliquée dans la routine clinique. Le but de cette recherche était de déterminer s'il est possible de reconstruire la dose 3D délivrée en se basant sur des mesures de la dose transmise, dans le contexte des faisceaux étroits. Une méthode itérative de reconstruction de la dose a été décrite et implémentée. L'algorithme itératif contient un algorithme simple basé sur le principe de convolution/superposition pour le calcul de la dose. La dose transmise a été mesurée à l'aide d'une série de chambres à ionisations alignées afin de simuler la nature linéaire du détecteur de la tomothérapie. Nous avons montré que l'algorithme itératif converge rapidement et qu'il permet de reconstruire la dose délivrée avec une bonne précision (au moins 3 % localement / 3 mm). De plus, nous avons démontré que cette méthode permet de détecter certaines erreurs de positionnement du patient, ainsi que des modifications géométriques qui peuvent subvenir entre les séances de traitement. Nous avons discuté les limites de cette méthode pour la détection de certaines erreurs d'irradiation. Par la suite, des tests de stabilité du détecteur MVCT intégré à la tomothérapie ont été effectués, dans le but de déterminer si ce dernier peut être utilisé pour la dosimétrie in vivo. Ce détecteur a démontré une stabilité à court et à long terme comparable à d'autres détecteurs tels que les EPIDs également utilisés pour l'imagerie et la dosimétrie in vivo. Pour finir, une adaptation de la méthode de reconstruction de la dose a été proposée afin de pouvoir l'implémenter sur une installation de tomothérapie. Ce manuscrit est composé de deux articles et d'un script contenant des informations supplémentaires sur ce travail. Dans ce dernier, le premier chapitre introduit l'état de l'art de la dosimétrie in vivo et de la radiothérapie adaptative, et explique pourquoi nous nous intéressons à la reconstruction 3D de la dose délivrée. Dans le chapitre 2, l'algorithme 3D de calcul de dose implémenté pour ce travail est décrit, ainsi que les paramètres physiques principaux nécessaires pour le calcul de dose. Les caractéristiques du détecteur MVCT de la tomothérapie utilisé pour les mesures de transit sont décrites dans le chapitre 3. Le chapitre 4 contient un premier article intitulé '3D dose reconstruction for narrow beams using ion chamber array measurements', qui décrit la méthode de reconstruction et présente des tests de la méthodologie sur des fantômes irradiés avec des faisceaux étroits. Le chapitre 5 contient un second article intitulé 'Stability of the Helical TomoTherapy HiArt II detector for treatment beam irradiations'. Un procédé de reconstruction de la dose spécifique pour l'utilisation du détecteur MVCT de la tomothérapie est présenté au chapitre 6. Une discussion et les perspectives de la thèse de doctorat sont présentées au chapitre 7, suivies par une conclusion au chapitre 8. Le concept de la tomothérapie est exposé dans l'annexe 1. Pour finir, la radiothérapie «informationnelle 3D et la radiothérapie par modulation d'intensité sont présentées dans l'annexe 2.

Estimating Bayesian decision problems with heterogeneous priors

In many areas of economics there is a growing interest in how expertise andpreferences drive individual and group decision making under uncertainty. Increasingly, we wish to estimate such models to quantify which of these drive decisionmaking. In this paper we propose a new channel through which we can empirically identify expertise and preference parameters by using variation in decisionsover heterogeneous priors. Relative to existing estimation approaches, our \Prior-Based Identification" extends the possible environments which can be estimated,and also substantially improves the accuracy and precision of estimates in thoseenvironments which can be estimated using existing methods.