Käyttöpääoman hallinta ja taloudellinen suorituskyky valmistavissa teollisuuden alan yrityksissä talouden laskusuhdanteen aikana

Tämän Pro gradu – tutkielman aiheena on tutkia kahden valmistavan teollisuudenalan käyttöpääomassa ja käyttöpääoman hallinnassa tapahtuneita muutoksia talouden laskusuhdanteen aikana vuosina 2007–2013. Käyttöpääoman kuuluvien varojen ja velkojen perusteella tutkimuksessa selvitetään, ovatko yritykset toteuttaneet aggressiivista, kohtalaista vai konservatiivista käyttöpääoman hallintastrategiaa ja kuinka käyttöpääoman hallinta on muuttunut laskusuhdanteen aikana. Käyttöpääoman hallinnassa tapahtuneita muutoksia verrataan toimialojen kannattavuudessa ja maksuvalmiudessa tapahtuneisiin muutoksiin. Tutkimus on rajattu koskemaan metsä- ja metalliteollisuuden keskisuuria yrityksiä. Tutkimusaineisto kerättiin Voitto + -tietokannasta satunnaisotannalla. Yrityksien valintakriteerinä käytettiin 10 - 50 miljoonan euron vuosiliikevaihdon väliä, jonka tuli täyttyä yritysten osalta vuonna 2007. Tutkimusotokseen valittiin molemmilta toimialoilta yhteensä 31 yrityksen tilinpäätösaineistoja vuosilta 2007 –2013. Tutkimuksen perusteella sekä metsä- että metalliteollisuuden yritysten käyttöpääoman on lisääntynyt laskusuhdanteen aikana. Käyttöpääoman hallinta on molemmilla toimialoilla muuttunut konservatiivisemmaksi, myyntisaamisten ja vaihto-omaisuuden lisääntymisen ja ostovelkojen vähenemisen seurauksena. Käyttöpääoman kasvu kuitenkin paransi toimialojen maksuvalmiutta. Toimialojen kannattavuus heikkeni laskusuhdanteen aikana, johtuen heikentyneestä liikevaihdosta. Metalliteollisuuden toimialalla käyttöpääomaprosentti kasvoi ajanjaksolla kannattavuuden heikentyessä, johon vaikutti liikevaihdon lasku ajanjaksolla. Metsäteollisuuden alalla käyttöpääomaprosentti seurasi kannattavuuden muutoksia, ja kääntyi viimeisinä vuosina laskuun liikevaihdon kasvun seurauksena.

Observing wind, aerosol particles, clouds and precipitation: Finland's new ground-based remote-sensing network

The Finnish Meteorological Institute, in collaboration with the University of Helsinki, has established a new ground-based remote-sensing network in Finland. The network consists of five topographically, ecologically and climatically different sites distributed from southern to northern Finland. The main goal of the network is to monitor air pollution and boundary layer properties in near real time, with a Doppler lidar and ceilometer at each site. In addition to these operational tasks, two sites are members of the Aerosols, Clouds and Trace gases Research InfraStructure Network (ACTRIS); a Ka band cloud radar at Sodankylä will provide cloud retrievals within CloudNet, and a multi-wavelength Raman lidar, PollyXT (POrtabLe Lidar sYstem eXTended), in Kuopio provides optical and microphysical aerosol properties through EARLINET (the European Aerosol Research Lidar Network). Three C-band weather radars are located in the Helsinki metropolitan area and are deployed for operational and research applications. We performed two inter-comparison campaigns to investigate the Doppler lidar performance, compare the backscatter signal and wind profiles, and to optimize the lidar sensitivity through adjusting the telescope focus length and data-integration time to ensure sufficient signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) in low-aerosol-content environments. In terms of statistical characterization, the wind-profile comparison showed good agreement between different lidars. Initially, there was a discrepancy in the SNR and attenuated backscatter coefficient profiles which arose from an incorrectly reported telescope focus setting from one instrument, together with the need to calibrate. After diagnosing the true telescope focus length, calculating a new attenuated backscatter coefficient profile with the new telescope function and taking into account calibration, the resulting attenuated backscatter profiles all showed good agreement with each other. It was thought that harsh Finnish winters could pose problems, but, due to the built-in heating systems, low ambient temperatures had no, or only a minor, impact on the lidar operation – including scanning-head motion. However, accumulation of snow and ice on the lens has been observed, which can lead to the formation of a water/ice layer thus attenuating the signal inconsistently. Thus, care must be taken to ensure continuous snow removal.

Quantificação de risco operacional

Risco operacional precisa ser mensurado pois afeta o valor e a sobrevivência das empresas. Ocupa o foco de pesquisadores, profissionais do sistema financeiro, reguladores e supervisores bancários, no esforço de controlar esse risco. Pesquisamos quatro formas de utilizar a abordagem de distribuição de perdas para a quantificação do risco operacional. Utilizamos um conjunto de dois anos de perdas operacionais de um banco brasileiro de grande porte para fazermos a aplicação e o teste dessa abordagem em quatro variantes. A variante que utiliza exclusivamente distribuições empíricas foi a mais adequada para medir o risco operacional e calcular o capital econômico a partir dos dados disponíveis. Na variante que quantifica o risco operacional ajustando distribuições teóricas às perdas, mostramos que as curvas de Johnson são especialmente flexíveis e de pronta implementação. Também, ajustamos as curvas de Johnson à distribuição de perdas operacionais e à distribuição amostral dos valores de capital econômico. Conhecer a distribuição do capital permite que tenhamos ideia da precisão com que estimamos o capital econômico e abre o caminho para futuros estudos teóricos da distribuição do Var operacional. Encontramos a distribuição dos valores de capital econômico ao invés de calcularmos um valor único de capital. Comparamos dois métodos, utilizados para estabelecer distribuições de valores de capital. Ao conduzirmos a pesquisa, notamos ser possível justificarmos pontos de verificação da auditoria interna sobre a base de dados, a modelagem e a gestão de risco operacional. Com a pesquisa produzimos sugestões para a supervisão e regulação dos bancos.

Aplicação de classificadores Bayesianos e regressão logística na análise de desempenho dos alunos de graduação

Este trabalho minera as informações coletadas no processo de vestibular entre 2009 e 2012 para o curso de graduação de administração de empresas da FGV-EAESP, para estimar classificadores capazes de calcular a probabilidade de um novo aluno ter bom desempenho. O processo de KDD (Knowledge Discovery in Database) desenvolvido por Fayyad et al. (1996a) é a base da metodologia adotada e os classificadores serão estimados utilizando duas ferramentas matemáticas. A primeira é a regressão logística, muito usada por instituições financeiras para avaliar se um cliente será capaz de honrar com seus pagamentos e a segunda é a rede Bayesiana, proveniente do campo de inteligência artificial. Este estudo mostre que os dois modelos possuem o mesmo poder discriminatório, gerando resultados semelhantes. Além disso, as informações que influenciam a probabilidade de o aluno ter bom desempenho são a sua idade no ano de ingresso, a quantidade de vezes que ele prestou vestibular da FGV/EAESP antes de ser aprovado, a região do Brasil de onde é proveniente e as notas das provas de matemática fase 01 e fase 02, inglês, ciências humanas e redação. Aparentemente o grau de formação dos pais e o grau de decisão do aluno em estudar na FGV/EAESP não influenciam nessa probabilidade.

Combination of Tevatron Searches for the Standard Model Higgs Boson in the W+W- Decay Mode

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Combined Tevatron upper limit on gg -> H -> W+W- and constraints on the Higgs boson mass in fourth-generation fermion models

We combine results from searches by the CDF and D0 collaborations for a standard model Higgs boson (H) in the process gg -> H -> W+W- in p (p) over bar collisions at the Fermilab Tevatron Collider at root s = 1.96 TeV. With 4.8 fb(-1) of integrated luminosity analyzed at CDF and 5.4 fb(-1) at D0, the 95% confidence level upper limit on sigma(gg -> H) x B(H -> W+W-) is 1.75 pb at m(H) = 120 GeV, 0.38 pb at m(H) = 165 GeV, and 0.83 pb at m(H) = 200 GeV. Assuming the presence of a fourth sequential generation of fermions with large masses, we exclude at the 95% confidence level a standard-model-like Higgs boson with a mass between 131 and 204 GeV.

Combination of CDF and D0 measurements of the W boson helicity in top quark decays

We report the combination of recent measurements of the helicity of the W boson from top quark decay by the CDF and D0 collaborations, based on data samples corresponding to integrated luminosities of 2.7-5.4fb -1 of pp̄ collisions collected during Run II of the Fermilab Tevatron collider. Combining measurements that simultaneously determine the fractions of W bosons with longitudinal (f 0) and right-handed (f +) helicities, we find f 0=0.722±0.081[±0.062(stat)±0.052(syst)] and f +=-0.033±0.046[±0.034(stat)±0.031(syst)]. Combining measurements where one of the helicity fractions is fixed to the value expected in the standard model, we find f 0=0.682±0. 057[±0.035(stat)±0.046(syst)] for fixed f + and f +=-0.015±0.035[±0.018(stat)±0.030(syst)] for fixed f 0. The results are consistent with standard model expectations. © 2012 American Physical Society.

Combination of the top-quark mass measurements from the Tevatron collider

The top quark is the heaviest known elementary particle, with a mass about 40 times larger than the mass of its isospin partner, the bottom quark. It decays almost 100% of the time to a W boson and a bottom quark. Using top-antitop pairs at the Tevatron proton-antiproton collider, the CDF and D0 Collaborations have measured the top quark's mass in different final states for integrated luminosities of up to 5.8fb -1. This paper reports on a combination of these measurements that results in a more precise value of the mass than any individual decay channel can provide. It describes the treatment of the systematic uncertainties and their correlations. The mass value determined is 173.18±0.56(stat)±0.75(syst)GeV or 173.18±0.94GeV, which has a precision of ±0.54%, making this the most precise determination of the top-quark mass. © 2012 American Physical Society.

Description of Paranoplocephala etholeni n. sp. (Cestoda: Anoplocephalidae) in the Meadow Vole Microtus pennsylvanicus, with a Synopsis of Paranoplocehala s. l. in Holarctic Rodents

Paranoplocephala etholeni n. sp, parasitizing the meadow vole Microtus pennsylvanicus in Alaska and Wisconsin, USA. is described Paranaplocephala etholeni is morphologically most closely related to the Nearctic Paranoplocephala ondatrae (Rausch, 1948). Available data suggest that P. etholeni is a host-specific, locally rare species that may have a wide but sporadic geographical distribution in North America. The finding of P. ondatrae-like cestodes in Microtus spp. suggests that this poorly known species may actually be a parasite of voles rather than muskrat (type host). A tabular synopsis of all the known species of Paranoplocephala s. I. in the Holarctic region with their main morphological features is presented.

Paranoplocephala sciuri (Cestoda: Anoplocephalidae), a Parasite of the Northern Flying Squirrel (Glaucomys sabrinus), with a Discussion of Its Systematic Status

This study redescribes Andrya sciuri Rausch, 1947 (Anoplocephalidae) from the northern flying squirrel, Glaucomys sabrinus (Shaw), in North America, to redefine the morphology and generic position of this poorly known cestode. Andrya sciuri is shown to belong unambiguously to the genus Paranoplocephala Lühe, 1910 sensu Haukisalmi and Wickström (2005). Paranoplocephala sciuri is compared with four species that resemble it morphologically, and features that can be used in its identification are presented. It is suggested that P. sciuri has speciated through a shift from arvicoline rodents (voles and lemmings) to G. sabrinus.

Convergent evolution of [D-Leucine1] microcystin-LR in taxonomically disparate cyanobacteria

Abstract Background Many important toxins and antibiotics are produced by non-ribosomal biosynthetic pathways. Microcystins are a chemically diverse family of potent peptide toxins and the end-products of a hybrid NRPS and PKS secondary metabolic pathway. They are produced by a variety of cyanobacteria and are responsible for the poisoning of humans as well as the deaths of wild and domestic animals around the world. The chemical diversity of the microcystin family is attributed to a number of genetic events that have resulted in the diversification of the pathway for microcystin assembly. Results Here, we show that independent evolutionary events affecting the substrate specificity of the microcystin biosynthetic pathway have resulted in convergence on a rare [D-Leu1] microcystin-LR chemical variant. We detected this rare microcystin variant from strains of the distantly related genera Microcystis, Nostoc, and Phormidium. Phylogenetic analysis performed using sequences of the catalytic domains within the mcy gene cluster demonstrated a clear recombination pattern in the adenylation domain phylogenetic tree. We found evidence for conversion of the gene encoding the McyA2 adenylation domain in strains of the genera Nostoc and Phormidium. However, point mutations affecting the substrate-binding sequence motifs of the McyA2 adenylation domain were associated with the change in substrate specificity in two strains of Microcystis. In addition to the main [D-Leu1] microcystin-LR variant, these two strains produced a new microcystin that was identified as [Met1] microcystin-LR. Conclusions Phylogenetic analysis demonstrated that both point mutations and gene conversion result in functional mcy gene clusters that produce the same rare [D-Leu1] variant of microcystin in strains of the genera Microcystis, Nostoc, and Phormidium. Engineering pathways to produce recombinant non-ribosomal peptides could provide new natural products or increase the activity of known compounds. Our results suggest that the replacement of entire adenylation domains could be a more successful strategy to obtain higher specificity in the modification of the non-ribosomal peptides than point mutations.